Rockets Midseason Review - Part 2
by Tom Martin on Jan 22, 2009 11:57 PM CST
in Player Analysis
30 comments
Part 2 of the Mideason Reviews is in session. Part 1 can be found here.
Tracy McGrady - Season Stats
I'm going to be as frank as I can when I make this statement, because I've held it in for a long time hoping for it to be timely blind emotion, but now I see that it's true: The Houston Rockets must get rid of Tracy McGrady. Whether that means trade him, cut him (both of which won't happen this season), or permanently Starbury him to the bench, the Rockets must take him away. For a while, writers everywhere have said the following about McGrady (my response is underneath in bold):
"If he's ever fully healthy again, he can be the leader of this Rockets team."
He won't be fully healthy again. Ever. Put it to rest, because it won't happen. When knees are that worn down, you can't just work them back to the way they once were. Ask Earl Campbell. It sucks, but it's the truth. I miss the old McGrady, believe me. If he could play the way he used to in Orlando and during his first few seasons in red, I'd be happy to see him come back. But it won't happen, and it's time to accept that.
"When he's out, the offense seems to click more."
Hey, no shit. So why hinder that offense by bringing him back? Why use his namesake as an excuse to choke the life out of our offensive ability? Sit him out and let Adelman' scheme take it's shape. So far, we've been much more efficient with T-Mac in a suit. Plus, he looks better for the cameras that way. Which is all that matters with superstars, right?
"He's a great passer - maybe he can shoot less and average 7-8 assists per game?"
It would be nice, but it's not happening. A shooter shoots, and a star player shoots even more. It's all Tracy has ever known, and when he thinks he can bury an open shot (which is every other time he touches the ball), he's not going to pass it up.
It's not like we can't win with McGrady - we certainly can. But by the time the playoffs roll around, and Mac has only played for half a season, the rotations become screwed up and chemistry is curb-stomped. We must field the guys we want, as Dave said, and let McGrady sit. There would be no point in bringing him off the bench because he would slow Aaron, Carl, and others down, all of whom like to run.
As for T-Mac's play on the court this year, it hasn't been pretty, but hasn't been awful either. True, he's only shooting 39%, and at times, his effort mimics that of a girl apathetically trying to get through P.E. class, but his FT% has skyrocketed, he rebounds a decent percentage of the time, and his passing skills haven't dropped a bit. If only he passed it more...but he won't. Let's not try to get into that. It's tough to grade him, because expectations of him were once again way too high coming into the year, but here it is anyway. Grade: C
Yao Ming - Season Stats
I'm going to keep Yao's analysis brief. Offensively, he is still the most versatile weapon in the low post in the NBA. He can bang inside with the best of them and drop the ball in the hoop with a miniature hook shot, or he can Shanghai Shake someone on the baseline and hit a fadeaway 15 footer with ease. His rebounding is still solid, but it can be better, and he disappears on the boards at times. As Bill Worrell has stated, Yao times his jump wrong on many rebound attempts, or he is simply too far underneath the basket. But you can't ask too much of him. Same goes for his blocked shots - he's 7'6, so his ability as a shot-blocker is a bit skewed. He can whiff on some sure fire blocks, but he still gets 2 or so per game. In addition to that, his FT shooting has been phenomenal as always (when he actually gets to the line). Pray for good health, because there's not much else Yao needs to work on. Even his fourth-quarter stats have shot up this year. If I had to point to one thing, it would be what Deke said: stop trying to take charges and time your block attempts better in the paint. Grade: A
Luis Scola - Season Stats
Luis has improved in many areas in this, his second season in the NBA. His minutes, FG%, FT%, rebounds, steals, and points per game are all up this season, and his other stats have declined by mere tenths. His jump shot has become very effective, and he can really own the boards against smaller opponents. It would be nice to see Luis put up good numbers against the top teams in the league (Boston, Cleveland, Orlando, San Antonio, LA Lakers), because in those games, he didn't amount to much. And secondly, his defense has got to improve, or at least his help defense. I see him getting dunked on all the time. But no matter. Here's to Luis's continued development, and it's a testament to his hustle and ability to run the offense that he has maintained the starting PF spot over Carl Landry. Grade: B+
Von Wafer - Season Stats
Instead of throwing Vakeaton Quamar Wafer more bouquets of praise, I'll simply link to some of the articles that have been written about him on this site to date. You should find everything you need to know about him there. And if we forgot to mention it, he is a scoring champion. Nobody has been more efficient for Houston this year, and it's because of Von that we've managed to win without Tracy and Ron available. Grade: A
Coach Rick Adelman
Rick has sure had his ups and downs this season. Of late, his offense has taken form, his decision to start Von Wafer has paid off, and his in-bounds plays have been creative and point-producing yet again. But Rick has also made some interesting decisions. His obsession with placing the starters in at the end of games has cost the Rockets a few possible wins, and his late-game playcalling has been questionable. In addition to that, he didn't do anything to put the drama that we've experienced this season to rest. Think JVG would let that happen? I think not. You may reference this "puff piece" on Adelman written earlier this year for more insight on our head coach. I can't complain too much, however. We have won 27 games without a set lineup and with McGrady (I guess) and Artest injured. Grade: B-
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Sigh...
Maybe I was spoiled at Burnt Orange Nation, where the main bloggers were actually reasonable and not short sighted.
C’mon man this shit is ridiculous. Is your memory span like 2 months? You can pretty much count on McGrady and Artest regaining ~80% health and coming up big in the playoffs. Isn’t that all that matters really?
Yeah we’ve racked up some wins lately, but what evidence do you have that Wafer will continue this run of great play? That’s right, you don’t. When the offense gets bogged down the 4th, we need a playmaker like T-Mac that can get us the last few buckets we need. This team right now without Artest/T-Mac will not get out of the 1st round. Is that what you really want?
This is just a mirror image of last year. T-Mac missed a few games, and the offense “looked” better without him, and then T-Mac came back, played within the offense, and the streak started eventually. Of course T-Mac can fit in our offense, it’s not like we’re running anything sophisticated. It’s a Yao-centric offense currently.
Tracy once again had a great playoff run with us last season, and we’d surely get out of the 1st round had Yao, Alston, and Battier been reasonably healthy. You don’t abandon this. Quite frankly, your ideas are extremely unreasonable, and that’s why you’re here and not a GM. Under no circumstance will Morey/Adelman even consider keeping him on the bench or trading him for 25c on the dollar. Good grief.
by goingforthecorner on Jan 23, 2009 10:05 AM CST reply actions
agreed
A few days ago, ClutchFans had this posted about McGrady’s current rehab plan.
Granted, it’s a “puff piece” (what else can you expect from any interview?), but it has a few interesting insights. It really sounds like McGrady screwed up big-time during the offseason. Hopefully, his current regimen will significantly help his game. I suppose we’ll see when he gets back.
To clarify, goingforthecorner. Please read this - hope it helps
I’ll keep this as civil as possible as I disagree with some points. It’s not my job to attack loyal readers.
A few quick points:
1. When has a team with T-Mac ever gotten out of the first round? Forget the circumstances of each year – he’s had too many chances and too many failures. Granted, not all of it was his fault, but at some point, excuses only reach so far.
2. My memory span, despite your claims, actually reaches back quite far. How about we go back to last season, which you claimed was a mirror image of this year. In the first half of the season, Mac had three 40 point games, four 30 point games, and a handful of 20 point games. He also shot the ball at around 42%. This season has been anything but a mirror image of last year. His season high is 30 points, and he has only reached that plateau once. His shooting percentage is down as well. If you read the whole article, I did state that he was doing pretty decent in the other areas of his game. But for you to say that this year is like last year is ludicrous. It’s a step or two down. Tracy can’t drive anymore either, and driving is a big part of the offense, which I agree, isn’t complicated. Last season, he could get in the paint with much more ease. This season, it’s rare to see him within ten feet of the basket. If you want to say that Von Wafer will slow down, one thing that won’t change will be his ability to drive strong to the hole. I’ll get back to Von later.
3. I said that while I would like to cut or trade him, it won’t happen. Not this year, as T-Mac’s contract expires in 2010. There have been many articles written on this site stating that while trading T-Mac is a remote possibility, it will not happen this season at all.
What does T-Mac bring to our team that we don’t have when he’s out? You mentioned clutch shooting, and it’s a good point. Without T-Mac, we wouldn’t have a clutch go-to player on the perimeter. It showed in the Los Angeles game. But we do have Yao, and we will have Ron Artest. In addition to that, we have a bevy of good shooters late in games such as Barry, Brooks, and Von, among others, that can be options on a kick out.
But what else does T-Mac do? What are we missing without him? He returns against Washington and we lose. We then almost lose the next night vs. Milwaukee with him on the court. Then the Toronto game happened. He takes a break, and we go to Atlanta and lose on a buzzer beater by only three. Next is Philly, and with Mac, we lose. Then, at Boston, this time with Ron Artest, we beat the champs. The next night, Tracy comes back and we almost lose to the Thunder. See a coincidence?
As much as I want to say Von Wafer will be a star, he won’t at all. But why should he slow down a whole lot? He’s perfect for our offense, and all he really does is score on drives and kick-out shots. So maybe his pull-ups won’t fall every night – he’s still a solid option and keeps the ball moving. With Ron back, he will be needed even less as an all-around threat and can focus solely on shooting and driving. I have no reason to believe that a player as talented (he was a star at Florida State) or as young as Von will slow down to mediocrity. So what if his FG% falls from 50% to somewhere in the low 40s? It’s still better than McGrady’s, and it’s with fewer shot attempts.
As I also stated, I would love to have the old Tracy back. But he’s the new Tracy now, and he’s really not anything more to our team than a namesake, a piece of a trio. I’d rather have Ron back because he knows Adelman from Sactown, plays great defense, and is a much better three point shooter. Ron won’t keep shooting 36% all year.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak
And to add something that I forgot.
I think a team with a set lineup that includes Von Wafer is more effective than a team with a guy coming back recently who can only disrupt chemistry within the offense.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak
Reply
1. You can’t ignore the circumstances. Of course 0-7 looks real bad and embarrassing, but injuries to Hill and Yao ARE THE REASONS why he hasn’t gotten out of there. When you talk about stars on your team going down the injury, when they were supposed to be the focal point of the offense, I would consider that as a legitimate excuse for not succeeding in a 7 game series.
2. Of course it’s not an exact mirror image. In fact this team record wise is better than last year’s team. But both went through similar adversities with early season injuries, and then catching on fire in the 2nd half. With our pathetically easy schedule in February, I don’t see why we can’t catch on fire again.
If you kept up with the recent news of T-Mac’s training, he’s been going hard with his personal trainer in the last few weeks. Lost a few pounds of fat, gained muscle, and gained stamina most importantly. He even has some lift in his leg now, as he said he’s dunking in practice now. Of course we won’t see a 100% McGrady or the Orlando McGrady, but we can at least see the T-Mac we saw just 1 year ago, which is plenty good enough for this team.
3. We’re not just missing clutch shooting from him. Without him, do we have a single playmaker on the team? Right now it’s all the players chipping in much more of an evenly distributed offense. There’s no doubt the offense looks “prettier” because of more ball movement, speed, etc. But those things alone won’t win you games in the playoffs. And lets acknowledge that the schedule has been much softer since McGrady shut it down as far as home games and lack of back to backs.
The Tracy that’s going to come back is going to be a completely different one than we saw earlier, so your expectations of him are obviously low if you’re just going to judge him by his last few games.
For the Thunder game, Artest was not playing, and they play teams tough at home. After their loss to us, their next 2 home games were both W’s over the Jazz and Pistons.
by goingforthecorner on Jan 23, 2009 3:22 PM CST up reply actions
Well
For one, how does it get easier than Washington, Milwaukee, Toronto, and the Thunder? And the Thunder are like 10-34. I don’t care who they beat, there’s no excuse to make that game close. If you’re talking about the entire season, then yes, the schedule in the 2nd half will get easier. Still doesn’t give T-Mac an excuse to score in single digits versus SAS and LAL.
And I’m not just judging Tracy by the last few games. I’m judging him by this season compared to last season. He just hasn’t had it in very many games this year, and that triple double versus LAC was a joke.
How can a pretty offense not win in the playoffs? What’s wrong with an evenly distributed offense? It’s not like we don’t have a star player (or two – Artest) that can suddenly unbalance the scoring with a 30 point game. You forget how good this team is even without T-Mac.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak
Read the post by the Jazz fan below
This pretty offense will look ugly in the playoffs in a slower, grind it out game. Your stars have to win you games.
And by the way, I would be more worried about Artest killing that pretty offense out there more than T-Mac. He’s much more of a ball-stopper, and takes a few “WTF was that” shots.
And it’s not all Tracy’s fault that we lost easy games or barely beat easy teams. You can keep telling yourself that, but a lot of other factors have led to this improved play, like the emergence of Wafer (and thus, no PT for Head), Rafer getting hot, and the return of Shane Battier.
by goingforthecorner on Jan 23, 2009 3:50 PM CST up reply actions
Agreed
I stand by my reasoning, and there’s no point in arguing this any further because you’ve also made good points – it’s not like I don’t see where you’re coming from. In the end, one of us will be right and one will be wrong, but it doesn’t matter. The Battier thing is very true as well.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak
yes, but...
“You can pretty much count on McGrady and Artest regaining ~80% health and coming up big in the playoffs”
Artest I will give you, but…
What evidence do you have that McGrady will come up big in the playoffs? There isn’t even historical evidence on your side.
I want McGrady back. But I don’t expect him to be the 2003 McGrady ever again.
Dude come on
Team success and player success is apples and oranges. McGrady has come up big ALL SEVEN TIMES he’s been in the playoffs. We don’t need an Orlando Tracy either. What he did last year was definitely good enough. All he needs is help around him and a favorable matchup. Had Grant Hill ever been healthy in a Magic uniform, or Yao not go down last year, or hell, even Juwan Howard not go down with a heart problem in 04-05, he’d be out of the 1st round multiple years.
T-Mac has come up big far more times than Artest has in the playoffs, so I don’t know why you’re actually more confident in Ron than Tracy.
by goingforthecorner on Jan 23, 2009 11:28 AM CST up reply actions
humor me
so, how exactly did T-Mac come up big against Utah last year? Game 6 doesn’t count… because he piled on the points when the game was over.
You are so full of it
Just look at his gamelog. Sure, he wasn’t efficient in some games, but considering how he was guarded, it makes sense. His rebounds and assists went up like they ALWAYS do in the playoffs.
Piled on the points when the game was over? Get your facts straight. He scored 12 points in the 1st quarter and 15 points in the 2nd quarter. He kept us in the damn game. It was 58-54 at halftime.
Bash him all you want, but this revisionism is just pathetic.
by goingforthecorner on Jan 23, 2009 3:02 PM CST up reply actions
might need to
We might need to examine the play-by-play… because the Rockets were perpetually down the whole game. They made it close at the half… and then got destroyed right out of the gate in the 3rd Q.
And at some point, if Tracy “came up big like always” in the playoffs, by pure accident his teams would have advanced given that he’s always been the best player on the team.
Accidents don't happen in the playoffs
maybe yes in an NCAAB tournament, but not a 7 game series.
by goingforthecorner on Jan 23, 2009 3:10 PM CST up reply actions
NOTICE
T-Mac had 18 free throw attempts in that game. 18. Can he drive like he did last year? I don’t think so.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak
Sure, why not?
Again, we’re going to see a different Tracy when he comes back. One that actually has some sort of conditioning. Keep in mind he hadn’t lifted a single weight until last week because of his shoulder problems.
Even at the beginning of this season, he had a few double digit FT attempts. I certainly won’t expect 18+ FTA when we’re healthy, since he’d be shooting less with Yao, Artest playing.
by goingforthecorner on Jan 23, 2009 3:53 PM CST up reply actions
How many times have we gone through this now?
Seriously, it’s getting pretty tiresome. We’ll see what happens when T-Mac gets back. Until then, we’re just repeating everything we’ve been arguing for the last month.
It was a midseason review
Therefore, I was forced to bring it up. But that’s the only reason. Let’s put the lid on this for now.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak
the dichotomy of Tracy
I think we all agree that when Tracy plays… or at least plays like he wants to play… he is a transcendent player. And he could be again.
What is bothering us is that he shows more of a tendency these days to sulk and not play within the flow of the offense or the overall game. It has most definitely become more about “me” than “team”. And that is disconcerting. To say the least.
Now, if T-Mac wants to buy in and be a team player…….. the Rockets can and will go far.
When has T-Mac NOT been a team player?
Again, if your memory span is only a few months long, then yeah, you would come to this absurd conclusion that he’s not a team player. Here’s reality. He’s one of the most unselfish “stars” out there in the game, and has actually gotten criticized in the pass for deferring too much! You all will see how much of a team player he is when everyone gets back healthy. I’ll be surprised if he averages more than 15-17 shots a game.
by goingforthecorner on Jan 23, 2009 3:07 PM CST up reply actions
hold up
I never said he’s selfish… he will pass the ball. But he will rarely make the “hockey assist”. T-Mac slows the offense down and dominates the ball. Yes, he is a great passer, but oftentimes what we need is a simple rotational pass… not the fancy no-look to Chuck Hayes special.
Here is some perspective from someone who has seen this Rockets team in the last few years of the playoffs.
I believe that the Rockets are playing better ball right now without Tracy McGrady. He does disrupt the flow of the game and he takes too many jumpers. He can also win some games for the team, but the way the Rockets are playing now is good ball and will beat a lot of teams.
In the playoffs, the games are obviously a lot different. Games are slower and more methodical and most teams are forced to play more of a half court game then they would during the regular season. Having Tracy McGrady is really good for the playoffs because he can create his own shot or the shots for others and he can also get to the line. So you guys might be a better regular season team without McGrady, but you will need him if you want to be a good playoff team. With that said, it has always seemed like the billing of the Rockets during the last 3 years or so has been Tracy McGrady, Yao Ming and the Houston Rockets. You guys are good enough to win the championship, but you will have to learn that the order HAS to become Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady and the Houston Rockets. Yao creates mismatches and passes out of the double team effectively and most importantly, he makes his free throws in the playoffs, whereas McGrady’s free throw shooting is only good, not great.
I questioned the pickup of Ron Artest only because he can hurt teams by becoming too perimeter oriented, somewhat like Tracy McGrady and that it might cripple the team from feeding Yao Ming. But if he attacks the basket, it might work out. He also makes free throws a little better than T-Mac.
One last thing. Don’t assume Houston would have won last year’s series if Yao would have been healthy. It would have been 50-50, but certainly not a given.
The more you try to erase me, the more that I appear.
McGrady's FT shooting is MUCH improved this year
And everyone (especially Tracy) recognizes this is Yao’s team. T-Mac has said it over and over that this is Yao’s team. T-Mac is actually the best on the team at getting the ball to Yao in the post.
by goingforthecorner on Jan 23, 2009 3:09 PM CST up reply actions
that is true
No one else on the team can make the entry pass to Yao that T-Mac can.
(more reasons I miss Horry… that guy was a god at the post-entry pass)
When you think about it
We could’ve beaten y’all had we just had Rafer Alston healthy. We lost the first 2 games at home close, both with Rafer out. Then in his first game back, we win Game 3 @ Utah when no one thought it was possible.
Had we just won 1 of those initial home games, we would have a Game 7 at Houston. If Rafer was playing, I’d like our chances.
by goingforthecorner on Jan 23, 2009 3:24 PM CST up reply actions
I think goingforthecorner said it all, so there’s not much I can add to it. I’ll just say that, personally, I’m not quite ready to give up on McGrady just yet. He brings way too much to the team even on one leg. We may have to use his expiring contract as trade bait next season, but for now I’m willing to wait and see what he can still do. He gave me way too many good memories for me to just give up on him right now. (Not exactly objective analysis, I know…)
the reality is that
Tmac is going to come back, he is going to get his minutes, he is going to have some good games and some bad games. the problem is that he, and as a result the rest of the team , changes styles come playoff time. he “turns it on”, much more aggressive, etc. he’ll even admit it.
I want Yao to step up and say this year, “It’s on me” before Mcgrady even has a chance. Until he becomes our leader vocally, this team will just follow tmac’s lead again to a first round exit.
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