Let's play the "what if?" game - today's topic: Tracy McGrady
by grungedave on Oct 24, 2009 10:58 AM CDT
in Player Analysis
51 comments
I know, I know... it's really dangerous to open up an actual debate on the hypothetical scenarios of Tracy McGrady. I mean, what if he really does return to the Rockets' roster this year and is actually allowed to participate in team activities? What if... what if... what if...? (I think someone once had some good advice for me on asking about things like this):
Nonetheless, with the regular season starting next week, I will brave the inevitable minefield and pose the question: What can we reallyexpect from Tracy McGrady this year?
My take? Tracy McGrady is on the downside of his career. This is not in dispute. He is also coming back from a (supposedly "minor") microfracture surgery on his knee. The list of players who have successfully recovered from any microfracture procedure is small. And even those players' "success" is debatable since none ever returned to their previous level of athletic ability.
As for McGrady, we can't ignore the previous season when he attempted to return from shoulder surgery and a "minor" (at the time) arthroscopic knee surgery. The results? Quite simply the most unproductive year since his rookie year - and since he only sat on the bench back in 1997, the 2008/09 season was certainly his most detrimental to his fellow teammates. Let's do the numbers:
38% FG shooting
37% 3-pt shooting
(note: nearly 1 in 4 of his FG attempts was from beyond the arc)
15.6 ppg
4.4 rebounds
5.0 assists
80% FT
... only his assist and FT marks were above his career averages.
The most damning stat of all? The Rockets escaped the first round of the playoffs. Without him.
So, it's safe to say you will never see this again:
But what about the 2009/10 season? It's all that matters right now and living in the past doesn't do any good (especially for our protagonist here).
Will McGrady average 20+ points a game? (No.)
Will McGrady stop shooting unnecessary 3-pointers? (No.)
Will McGrady participate on a team that makes it to round 2? (Ummm, maybe. I hope so this year.)
But what do you think?
update! Thank you to TrueHoop for the Monday afternoon link. Though I never once said in this post that Tracy McGrady would never be an all-star again. I don't think he will, but that is not the point of the article. I'm more concerned with how he fits into the current Rockets rotation (if he indeed does return).
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Will McGrady average 20+ points a game? Yes
Will McGrady stop shooting unnecessary 3-pointers? No
Will McGrady participate on a team that makes it to round 2? I don’t see this team going past the first round even if we make it to the playoffs. And if we do…damn right he is playing. I see him coming back to full strength this season. I mean its a contract year and he has a lot to prove. So I’m sure he is motivated. With that being said…I don’t expect him to be back next year.
by HtownBoy1999 on Oct 24, 2009 12:29 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
and yet
Shaq should be motivated, too…….
but he actually somehow got FATTER this offseason…
so I don’t put too much stock in the “motivation” category. Especially for a consistent underachiever like Tracy.
by grungedave on Oct 24, 2009 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
difference between Shaq and McGrady's motivation
a 4 ring difference. shaq has only a few years left. mcgrady, depending on how well he plays now could have at the most another decade and at the very least another 4 or 5 – again, depending on how he plays post-op.
i don’t think shaq has any real motivation to do anything outside of defend and block. he can afford those Windows 7 Whoppers.
by jasonmicron on Oct 26, 2009 8:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My feeling with Shaq is
rarely has a successful player done less with more. He’s going to HOF, he’s going to pass Hakeem for points, and yet…
Yet, you wonder what he might have done if he REALLY cared. Not cared some, cared about his image, cared about “respect” but cared about basketball, cared about taking his freakish size, strength and quickness to the utmost. Cared about becoming a good enough FT shooter that it was a low percentage play to foul him. Cared about defense, other than spectacular blocks. That sort of thing.
If the Red Nation apparatchiks start talking about a Five Year Plan, I'm out of here.
by Xiane on Oct 26, 2009 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If T-Mac is ever going to be a good player again…
… I figure it won’t be this season. I think he’ll have a slow year coming back from the surgery.
Then next season (if his recovery while playing went well & he’s not re-injured) he may be good again.
I had to stop arguing with drunks, Steeler fans, and all other fools.
It was making my brick wall jealous...
by steeler-hater on Oct 24, 2009 2:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Playmaker Rockets need
16ppg,5 assists,4+ rebounds from the SG spot. If the Rockets could get that from Ariza,Battier,Budinger,Taylor,heck even Brooks,we would be ecstatic.
This season I believe the team will try to limit McGrady to @ 30min/game,so his overall stats shouldn’t be that overwhelming.
Assuming he overcomes the mindf**k his knee created he should be about 18-20ppg,nearly 6 assists and 4.5+rebounds.
His scoring should be a little less as McGrady will end up being the defacto PG. He’s the only Rocket that will command a double team and the team is now full of shooters. McGrady has shown he’s willing to pass to open shooters,,even when they’re cold. (Remember all the Wesley,Head,Alston 1-8,2-9 nights? Too many other top players stop passing when a teammate misses a couple.) Tracy also knows that you need to feed the bigs and is very good at interior passing off a drive.
I look for McGrady to be more of a set-up guy for others thru most of game and trying to take over in crunch time.
One thing McGrady does extremely well is make the outlet pass to a streaking teammate.He is amazingly accurate on half-court passes to a teammate running out. W/the Rockets finally committed to running expect Ariza,Brooks,Lowry to be on the end of some great passes.
During the Summer I rewatched my vids of the Streak several times. What stands out in the games w/out Yao is how often the Rockets were behind or even in 3Q. Then McGrady would hit 2-3 shots,make a couple of nice passes and the Rockets would go into another gear and run away from the other team. A couple of times those were almost the only shots he made all game,but that is the intangible he brings. He can go on a roll and jumpstart the team into another gear.
by Tisbee on Oct 24, 2009 4:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
GrungeDave,how conflicted are you about...
McGrady stayed after Thursday’s practice to work with center Joey Dorsey on post moves.
"This is the first day we started working out," Dorsey said Thursday. "Me and Mac talked (Wednesday) night. He was like, ‘Stop throwing the ball out of the post every time you get it. Look to score sometimes. You’re the biggest one on the court.’ So we came in and started working out.
"I talked to him because Mac, he’s still favoring his injury, but on the court, he’s looking really good. He’s playing well. I’ve seen how he posts up and he makes moves so easy and gets to the basket. Who else to learn from than Tracy?"
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bk/bkn/6683741.html
Good grief,where to start?
“Who else to learn from than Tracy?”
Um,maybe Luis? Sikma? Hakeem? The kid playing C on the local JV team?
" …but on the court, he’s looking really good. He’s playing well. I’ve seen how he posts up and he makes moves so easy and gets to the basket."
Our interior defense is so bad a SG “still favoring his injury” can score at will inside?
“I talked to him because…”
The coaching staff has given up on Dorsey?
Hey,I’m on my way out,but the Organization still loves them some McGrady,so I better suck up while I can still save my job?
Just because y’all think I’m dumb doesn’t make it so. McGrady comes back,who’s his boy? I got me a connection and will get me some lobs. Suck on it Pops!
by Tisbee on Oct 24, 2009 4:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
simple
T-Mac tries to tutor Joey because Joey will never know Tracy is full of shit.
by grungedave on Oct 24, 2009 11:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think we can compete
for a playoff spot without Stacey.
You are banned from Music City Miracles.
Happy Now Tits?
You are banned from Blogging The Boys.
by CFHTim on Oct 24, 2009 7:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The worst case scenario is if T-Mac comes back and plays 20-30 games. That would really suck. Not only would he screw up the team chemistry but he would probably be playing injured again.
by VBG on Oct 24, 2009 8:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
btw
54% of you are insane. Just sayin’.
by grungedave on Oct 24, 2009 11:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
GD
When Princess Leia is handing out medals to the plucky, outgunned, Rockets who defeated the evil Empire despite overwhelming odds…YOU WON’T BE GETTING ONE.
Just so you know.
If the Red Nation apparatchiks start talking about a Five Year Plan, I'm out of here.
by Xiane on Oct 24, 2009 11:37 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
you are forgetting something
Chewbacca would be a legitimate center. The Rockets do not have a Chewbacca.
And anyone who tries to compare McGrady to Han Solo gets insta-banned. ;-)
by grungedave on Oct 25, 2009 9:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So uh,Darth Vader?
Supremely talented,tends to think of himself first,can’t get out of First Rd(loses mom,loses wife,loses the Jedi and loses the Empire),horribly injured.
But,ah,you do know in the end he redeems himself and saves the day for the good guys?
by Tisbee on Oct 25, 2009 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
hmmm
Isn’t T-Mac more like the Emperor?
the prevailing wisdom is that he is powerful and strong…
but in the end, he’s just weak and frail and can’t win in the end.
by grungedave on Oct 25, 2009 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
We have a center
who looks like he could do hair mousse ads. That sort-of-works for Utah, why not us?
And the guy I seem turning into Han Solo is Kyle Lowry – canny, slightly unscrupulous, quick trigger finger, a leader of men (or wookies) but basically good-hearted.
If the Red Nation apparatchiks start talking about a Five Year Plan, I'm out of here.
by Xiane on Oct 26, 2009 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Bill Simmons
and some other are to be believed, there’s going to be a big bargain table for players set up sometime in Dec-Jan. Maybe we can find an adequate big man there.
It’s a shame we couldn’t land Gortat. If advanced stats are to be believed, the Magic don’t drop off any while he’s on the floor. Limited sample, but still.
I also wonder if we couldn’t pry Jordan away from the Clips.
If the Red Nation apparatchiks start talking about a Five Year Plan, I'm out of here.
by Xiane on Oct 26, 2009 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even if they call him a scruffy-looking laser-brained nerfherder?
by DribbleHooper on Oct 26, 2009 4:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You know, Dave
it’s this sort of cognitive dissonance that really amazes me.
On the one hand, you’re entirely aware of Daryl Morey’s genius. But you’re not willing to admit that his team might be pretty good despite the presence of some mythical “legitimate” (whatever the fuck that’s supposed to mean) center.
Beyond that, you seem to think that Tracy is the key to the Rockets playing better than your prediction. But he’s not the magic 7’ man you’re looking for, right?
The most damning stat of all? The Rockets escaped the first round of the playoffs. Without him.
And the Rockets won more games against the Lakers than they had in the regular season without Yao than with. Without him.
Christ, people, one would think Rockets fans would at least be able to see how stupid this “stat” is.
Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.
by Only_A_Lad on Oct 25, 2009 1:46 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
dude
It’s just a poll. I couldn’t put 20 different scenarios in there.
by grungedave on Oct 25, 2009 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
also
The fact that I have such faith in Morey is why I think the Rockets win 35 games… instead of, say, 15 games. The NBA is a star-driven league, and right now our team features exactly ZERO stars. That’s not a typical winning formula.
by grungedave on Oct 25, 2009 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"stars" are people who contribute much more than your typical player
our players, while not stars, contribute more than average. When combined, it doesn’t really matter too much that Scola isn’t considered by SI or ESPN or whatever a “star.”
Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.
by Only_A_Lad on Oct 25, 2009 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
on that note
Name me a team that won a championship without a franchise level player.
by grungedave on Oct 25, 2009 5:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
on that note
define “franchise-level” player
Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.
by Only_A_Lad on Oct 25, 2009 6:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll save you the time
Name me a “franchise level” player currently on our roster.
There isn’t one.
by grungedave on Oct 25, 2009 7:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Detroit Pistons
Billups,Hamilton,et al were/are very good players but none could be considered franchise players.
by Tisbee on Oct 25, 2009 7:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and yet
Do we have ANYONE on our team on the level of Billups/Hamilton… or even Rasheed or Ben Wallace circa 2004? No.
by grungedave on Oct 25, 2009 7:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Moving goalposts?
on that note
Name me a team that won a championship without a franchise level player.
by grungedave
Asked,answered. :)
“Do we have ANYONE on our team on the level of Billups/Hamilton… or even Rasheed or Ben Wallace circa 2004? No.”
I would prefer either Ariza or Battier to 2004 Prince.
Scola brings it every game unlike Rasheed,so that’s pretty darn close.
But you’re right,whatever quibbles there might be about a couple of players,the overall talent/skill/experience the Rockets have is far below those Pistons.
by Tisbee on Oct 25, 2009 7:38 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
uhhh
According to many, Billups is a “franchise” level player. Certainly from 2004-2007. So it was not asked and answered.
objection: overruled.
by grungedave on Oct 25, 2009 9:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And reversed!
Billups was not considered a “franchise” player at the time-see the many accounts of time how team w/out stars beat the HOF-loaded Lakers,yada,yada,yada. His rep was as Mr Big Shot when game was on the line,not a superstar,much less a franchise player.
And no one said Billups was a Franchise player when he was traded for AI.
If by Franchise player you mean the face of the team,the player who reporters go to first,the player who personifies the team,then yes Billups was/is a franchise player. But under that definition Battier is the Rockets’ franchise player.
If by franchise player,someone you build a team around,who can carry that team for games,weeks,months,seasons at a stretch,Billups is not a franchise player.
by Tisbee on Oct 25, 2009 10:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
uh
This is not about wisdom “at the time”. This is about reality. Which is why hindsight is important. Kinda like how we all know Samuel L. Jackson should have won the Oscar for his role as Jules Winfield… even if it wasn’t recognized at the time.
by grungedave on Oct 25, 2009 11:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
uhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
And here we reach the problem of “franchise player” and other such nonsense – there’s no definition for it. Billups wasn’t considered a “franchise” player in 2004, and the only time I started hearing a lot of people start throwing that around was last season.
It’s a bullshit term, just like “star.” There are good players and bad players, and the only difference is skill and talent. There is no mystical metaphysical separation between a “star” and a “good role-player” – stars just have more skill.
And if the Rockets have a lot of very good players, then the balance of talent favors them. I guaran-fucking-tee you that the Rockets will beat the Kings four times this year. Doesn’t matter that the Kings have Martin and the Rockets “only” have Scola, Battier, and Ariza. In fact, that’s what’s going to make them win the game. I’d say the same thing about the Nets (who have that “legitimate center” you think is so important).
The Rockets – right now, with Tracy out – are at the same level as teams like the Suns. Doesn’t matter that the Rockets don’t have “stars” – what matters is that they don’t have trash filling out the bench (Cook excepted). They rebound, they defend, and they play efficient offense. In other words, they put the ball in the basket and keep the other team from doing so. That’s all that matters in basketball.
Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.
by Only_A_Lad on Oct 25, 2009 10:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
okay
How many all-star appearances does Chauncey have? I think it’s 4 times plus 2 All-NBA selections.
Compare to Tracy, who has 7 All-Star appearances. Now, I will grant that McGrady is a “better” player, but Chauncey has been just as much a franchise player as McGrady ever was. No matter how you want to define it.
by grungedave on Oct 25, 2009 11:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
plus
You are making projections that have no foundation or basis. We have NO idea if the Rockets will rebound, defend or be efficient offensively. This is a completely new team. We have no idea if they can consistently put the ball in the basket. None. To suggest otherwise would be talking out of your ass.
by grungedave on Oct 25, 2009 11:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not a completely new team.
It’s a team we saw beat the NBA champs comprehensively twice, despite not even having ANY center. None. And LA boasted 3 high level big men – 3. Anderson and Pops are more center than we had then. You can say “Well, they were fired up, at home.” They still did better, without Yao and Tracy, than Orlando did with their full complement of “stars”.
Of course you can question the motivation of any team going into the season. Maybe Duncan is finally too old, maybe Kobe has too many miles, maybe KG will never be the same, maybe Denver loses a bunch of games and massacres each other in the locker room. Any of it could happen. So?
If you say Houston can’t get past SA, or LA in the playoffs, and probably not PDX either, well, I tend to agree right now. If you tell me they won’t be there, I’d say your argument is no stronger than mine.
And on that note, I’m damn glad the season is finally starting.
If the Red Nation apparatchiks start talking about a Five Year Plan, I'm out of here.
by Xiane on Oct 26, 2009 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is circular logic.
Detroit’s players got their reputations because the won a championship, not the other way around.
Detroit won a title because it was a well built team – with well-defined roles, good defense, and an ability to control pace. Does that sound somewhat familiar?
And let’s just look at those famous Pistons.
Chauncy Billups – An enigma, bounced around the league, talked his way out of town, played horribly for long periods of time (First Denver sojourn). Changed when he found the right situation in Det and also grew up (a little). Our PG platoon reaches Billups’ career averages despite very low usage and limited time in the league.
Rip Hamilton – Initially considered a fringe NBAer. Worked tirelessly to hit shots of screens. And he must have screens to hit shots. Works hard on D, but no one’s idea of a superstar. Career averages suggest a good, efficient, but not superstar player. Headed for the Hall of Very Good. This is a big question mark – who can get to about 20pts a night efficiently, and be a go-to shooter. Right now, we don’t know.
Rasheed Wallace – Famous headcase, technical foul sponge and waste of talent. Career average of 15pts and 7 rebounds a game – if Luis Scola doesn’t do more than that this year I’ll be shocked. Carl Landry’s advanced stats suggest a BETTER player than R Wallace, IF they hold up to more minutes.
Ben Wallace – See Hayes, Chuck. Ben is somewhat taller, but nowhere near his listed height. Chuck should grow a gigantic afro.
Tayshaun Prince – See Battier, Shane/Ariza, Trevor. Tayshaun is taller, and defends inside players better, but is more of an offensive cipher than Shane, or Ariza. Can’t handle quick wings. One of the less reliable scorers in the NBA.
If the Red Nation apparatchiks start talking about a Five Year Plan, I'm out of here.
by Xiane on Oct 26, 2009 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
But...
The Emperor does win-that’s why he’s the Emperor.
He just can’t repeat,the challengers win out,no Dynasty for Palpatine.
by Tisbee on Oct 25, 2009 4:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I can see us being a dynasty.
With health, or perhaps a free donation of Pau Gasol.
If the Red Nation apparatchiks start talking about a Five Year Plan, I'm out of here.
by Xiane on Oct 26, 2009 2:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
At least...
We won’t have a Ron Artest on our team that gave up after Yao Ming went down in the play-offs. He started shooting ridiculous 3’s and threw the series. So HAPPY he is gone!!!
T-MAC will come back in late November and be a spark because of his court vision. He won’t be the scorer he once was but he will shoot great from mid-range and on the outside.
by Rob13 on Oct 26, 2009 2:47 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
good and bad
I am glad we won’t have an out of control gunner on the roster…
but damn am I going to miss Crazy Pills.
by grungedave on Oct 26, 2009 9:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you really saying we won't see a windmill dunk from T-Mac?
Didn’t he still dunk on people on one leg last year?
by airchina23 on Oct 26, 2009 12:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You forget one thing
Tracy McGrady worked out with Tim Grover, the same trainer who helped Dwyane Wade recover from his knee troubles…Not saying T-Mac can be Wade-like, but look what it did for Wade. He had an MVP season. Here, check out this story…http://espn.go.com/chicago/columns/blog?name=friedell&post=4479907
by Dodgerblue15 on Oct 26, 2009 7:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
That story has been posted here before.
Remember, this is a Rockets obsessed site. But, I tend to agree. I don’t think Tracy has EVER taken his conditioning and rehab terribly seriously. When they gush about guys training hard, and squeezing every ounce of performance from themselves, well, TMac has never, ever, been mentioned in that group.
Now, though? He looks to be getting serious. He looks to be addressing his problems, and trying to fix them. He knows its now or never for the second act of his career. If he’s able to play near his previous level, with very few changes to his game, he could be extremely productive through his mid 30s. People do forget what an awesome, overpowering offensive force he could be – and how effective he was on D when he put his mind to it as well.
As I’ve said before, Shane Battier’s drive and mind with TMac’s talent would produce possibly the greatest player of all time.
If the Red Nation apparatchiks start talking about a Five Year Plan, I'm out of here.
by Xiane on Oct 26, 2009 10:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i know noone will probably see this but you guys have posted some assinine things..and arguing with grungedave's cogent arguments.
tmac is not at all like dwade. dwade didn’t get microfracture knee surgery. nor is he as old as tmac. nor does he have an equivalent history of injuries (though he’s working on it).
On your arguments of Detroit: Detroit’s team had several ridiculous years with great results. The one parallel to the rockets is a team that is selfless and better than the sum of its parts, but even at the time Billups was well regarded. Both Wallaces were huge and career averages are not at all a fair measuring stick when you’re talking about players peaks. And last and probably most important, this houston team isn’t the same as last season. Or did you forget that you had Crazy Pills last year. I’m high on Ariza but you really think he could take Kobe and Artest dogging him all game? Do you really think that you didn’t in some way benefit from the probable lack of scouting on the rockets other options? You won two games, big whup-I doubt you’d win one vs the lakers in the playoffs this year regardless of round or venue. And this is coming from a Blazer fan who hates the Lakers and likes the Rockets.
Please, for the love of all that is holy, please stop using the following: "Book it.", "FTW", "Epic" & "Fail".
...no seriously--stop.
by nima on Nov 5, 2009 9:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
GRUNgedave..
I feel sorry for you. If T-Mac is traded you will be out of a job because all your posts are T-Mac bashes.
by ainsworth on Oct 27, 2009 9:08 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
get your facts straight
I’m already out of a job.
by grungedave on Oct 28, 2009 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
how are you allowed to write posts on this site?
did T-Mac refuse to sign one of your posters or something? did he use to be your favorite baller and then he didn’t win a championship for you? you are such a waste of space in the Rockets blogosphere. Literally all you do is bash an injured basketball player.
by ainsworth on Oct 27, 2009 9:27 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
this is my fucking blog.
I can write whatever I want. And McGrady’s never been my favorite player. (He could never match up to Horry’s heart and clutch-ness). And considering I started the Rockets blogosphere… kindly fuck off.
by grungedave on Oct 28, 2009 10:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
also
Please learn to use the word “literally” in its correct sense. Thank you.
by grungedave on Oct 28, 2009 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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