BPro Previews the Rockets

Basketball Prospectus just released the 2009-2010 Pro Basketball Prospectus, and, fortunately for cheap Rockets fans, their favorite team's chapter is available as a free preview. So, what does BPro have to say about the Rox?

Are fans and analysts missing something? According to SCHOENE, they are right on the money. SCHOENE sees Houston slipping to 37-45, finishing 19th in Offensive Rating and 18th at the defensive end. However, the other system we use at Basketball Prospectus, NBAPET, tells an entirely different story. NBAPET sees the Rockets going 52-30 and capturing the fourth seed in the West. This more optimistic forecast has Houston finishing 21st in Offensive Rating, but still succeeding by leading the league in Defensive Rating. Now, we point these things out not to pit our systems against each other, but to underscore how interesting this year’s Rockets are going to be. McGrady could mess all of this up by coming back, of course, and his availability--let alone his effectiveness--is very much a question mark.
However, what we know and expect right now is that the Rockets will play the bulk of this season with $38.8 million worth of star power watching from the sidelines. What is left is a collection of role players. Ordinarily, that would be a prescription for disaster. However, the Rockets don’t just have role players. They have a roster full of really good role players.

So, as usual, the answer is up in the air. Thanks, Pelton; I could have told you that.

Anyways, I heartily recommend the Prospectus, particularly if you're into basketball stats or play fantasy basketball. Oh, and Morey writes the forward (and he says you're not a real fan if you don't read this book - so read it!).

about 1 month ago Only_A_Lad 10 comments 1 recs |

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Also,

there’s some interesting claims in BPro’s analysis:

Ariza is “a better defender than Artest at this point in their respective careers”
SCHOENE is down on the defense because of lack of shot-blocking, and this provides an interesting experiment in how much Deke and Yao affected the defensive stats of their teammates.
Someone’s usage rate is going to skyrocket, and it will probably be Ariza. But Andersen and Jermaine Taylor are sleeper candidates for the role.

Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.

by Only_A_Lad on Oct 9, 2009 10:27 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I liked the write up.

For fans of one team, and particularly the majority of the fans that haunt TDS, the write up is no surprise. The Rockets are a bit of an enigma to forecast. I fall solidly in the “we’re going to be better than people think and make the playoffs” camp. But in this case, reasonable minds can differ, and have sound arguments for their position.

I’ve bought the Baseball annual since it started coming out, and I’d say the basketball one will probably be a good read as well. The Rockets essay won’t tell you most of us anything we don’t know about the team (though the advanced stats are nice) but the profiles of the other teams will doubtless be interesting, and add a lot to watching the Rockets play various opponents this year.

If the Red Nation apparatchiks start talking about a Five Year Plan, I'm out of here.

by Xiane on Oct 9, 2009 7:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

mmmhmmm

52-30. Just what I said.

Though I also predicted 5th seed, not 4th.

It will happen. Have faith, Rockets fans.

I might not have made the rowdies this year but I am still adamant that we will surprise the league.

by jasonmicron on Oct 9, 2009 7:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Having never read Basketball Prospectus...

I’m excited to actually purchase a copy this year. Following baseball as much as I do over at The Crawfish Boxes, I’m extremely familiar with Baseball Prospectus and their overly snotty, mean spirited attitude towards most teams and players. The writers for their basketball counterparts seem much more even handed. True, it could be just because the Rockets’ GM wrote the forward and is a stat-head’s darling, but I don’t think so. Basketball Prospectus is a welcome change for anyone who has read Baseball Prospectus and is turned off by their commentary.

by HighLeveragePerformer on Oct 9, 2009 10:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I think

a lot of it has to do with the nature of basketball stats. There’s so much disagreement about how to do statistical analysis in the NBA that nobody gets a big ego about designing a system (Dave Berri at Wages of Wins is perhaps an exception to that). SCHOENE is the closest thing to PECOTA, but everyone knows that it’s pretty much a crapshoot at this point. Nobody really knows what is the “best” system of analysis.

Of course, I (and you, I supose) might just have that view because our favorite team isn’t being ripped to shreds by the stats analysts. But even with that being true, Pelton never rips into teams like the Raptors quite the way Sheehan rips into the Astros.

Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.

by Only_A_Lad on Oct 9, 2009 10:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Allow me to dissent a bit here.

I don’t like the snarky BP comments about the Astros, because I have the sneaking suspicion that they’re right. I have the idea that everyone who is serious about baseball analysis outside the Houston area thinks we’re a joke right now.

BP used to love the Astros – it might be news to you, but early on they loved this team and the way it developed good players and brought in cost effective FA purchases. Seriously. If you think their opinion has changed, well, it has, but it’s reflected by the team Houston puts on the field and what’s waiting to come up. I essentially agree – Drayton and Co have earned the vituperation sent their way.

Shooting for a WC berth or a weak division crown is not what I aspire to as an Astros fan. Is it what you hope for? It had better be, because that’s the 90pct projection, as BP would say, for this team as it stands.

Personally, the past year is the first glimmer of hope I’ve had for a while. (And it’s a glimmer) Sure, the course we’re on might land a lucky WC berth or two, but can anyone seriously think this is a team that will contend for a title anytime soon? I think a lot of fans are so blinded by their love of the team (which I share by the way) that they don’t realize quite how far this franchise has fallen.

BP don’t like the farm system – well, who does? Do you? Really? It’s getting better but it could hardly go anywhere but up from the year we signed no picks. (A meaningless frugal gesture that pleased no one but Bud Selig and Drayton – how’s “slotting” working out anyway?)

If the Red Nation apparatchiks start talking about a Five Year Plan, I'm out of here.

by Xiane on Oct 9, 2009 11:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, of course.

BP is absolutely right most of the time about the Astros. Sometimes I think they don’t do their research and just apply their preconceptions to whatever is going on, but their criticisms of the Astros are pretty spot on.

My point is that the way Pelton writes about bad organizations in the NBA and the way Sheehan writes about bad organizations in baseball are very different in tone.

And that tone does inform the way each reacts to developments. Pelton seems more willing to accept the idea that Larry Bird has a decent plan in Indiana. Baseball Prospectus seems too willing to make jump to generalizations about the Astros’ prospects and their decisions.

A good example would be the Drew Sutton trade at the start of the season. While in the Astros’ system, Sutton was a fringe prospect who might one day be a good utility man. The fact that he was the Astros’ 3rd or 4th-best prospect was a major problem. But when he was traded for Keppinger (who already is a good utility player), the fact that Sutton was the Astros’ 4th-best prospect meant that this was a terrible trade. The fact that the Astros (by all appearances) are a bad organization seemed to inform analysis of the trade more than previous, more objective analysis.

And their shitty defensive stats piss me off, too.

Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.

by Only_A_Lad on Oct 10, 2009 12:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fair enough

I think their tone at present is often dismissive, without looking too deeply into might be the reason for what is being done. I think the filter is set to “negative” when it comes to Houston – unfortunately it’s mostly accurate, and I’d agree that Pelton is more fair minded. Part of that though, is due to what you mention – basketball analysis is still very much a work in progress, whereas we seem to have hit a plateau with baseball. Except of course when it comes to defense, as you say.

If the Red Nation apparatchiks start talking about a Five Year Plan, I'm out of here.

by Xiane on Oct 10, 2009 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll say this about Baseball Prospectus

Yes, the Astros are not in great shape and probably should be torn to shreds. But go through their comments about all ML players…they are negative probably 80-85% of the time. Like, unnecessarily negative. They find fault with All Stars, and dismiss 19 year olds who have never had an opportunity to succeed or even fail for that matter. I agree with Only a Lad that because hoops stats are in their infancy (at least compared to baseball), the Basketball guys are less sure of themselves, and less willing to take firm stands.

by HighLeveragePerformer on Oct 10, 2009 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

While we're talking baseball...

I just can’t express how happy I am to see the Cardinals and Red Sox out of the playoffs. It’s wonderful. It doesn’t make up for the bitter bad taste of the Texan loss, but still.

Oh, BP is MUCH nicer than they used to be. Truly, they used to define “snarky”. Its really toned down now. But I agree with you, they seem to write off players at a really young age more and more, which is just foolish. Go read the Adrian Gonzalez comments before he got his break in SD and you’ll see what I mean.

If the Red Nation apparatchiks start talking about a Five Year Plan, I'm out of here.

by Xiane on Oct 11, 2009 8:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs