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Around SBN: Bill Parcells, Jerome Bettis Lead Hall of Fame Finalists

How to score 100+ points per game without any "star" players

Matt (aka "Only a Lad") had a nice rant earlier this week about not settling for simple analysis.  In other words, he suggested that we do more than just call the Rockets "scrappy" and "hard-working" when searching for reasons for their success.  I couldn't agree more with that statement, and figured I'd go stat-hunting to find some hard, yet basic proof as to why Houston has been more than just an afterthought this season, especially on offense.  Here's what I found, primarily on Hoopdata.com:

Star-divide

To start, the Rockets take very efficient shots.  It's easy to say that the Rockets are "efficient" because that's what everyone else says, but it's nice to find some data to actually back it up.  As Matt has noted before, the two most efficient shots in basketball are the three-point shot (the corner three being the most efficient) and shots near the rim, followed by mid-range jumpers in order of closest to furthest.

As you might have guessed just by watching a game or two, the Rockets are eighth in the NBA in three-pointers made per game, as well as third in three-point field goals attempted per game.  That rounds off to an effective three-point field goal percentage of 50.7, which is just below the league average.  Though you'd like to see a higher percentage of threes made, it's comforting to know that the Rockets are taking the most efficient shot in basketball at a high frequency.

Despite their size disadvantage, the Rockets are fourth in the league at shots made around the rim per game, as well as shots taken around the rim.  Mobile big-men, such as Carl Landry, Luis Scola and Chuck Hayes, help to make that possible.  So too do paint-addicted guards like Kyle Lowry and Aaron Brooks.  And if you thought Trevor Ariza camped out at the three point line all game, then you're wrong - he's second on the team in shots made around the rim per game, with 3.1.

Hoop Data separates their mid-range jumpers into the increments of <10 feet (excluding shots directly at the basket), 10-15 feet, and 16-23 feet.  According to these numbers, the Rockets are fourth in the league in shots made less than ten feet from the rim, the third-most efficient shot.  However, as you move further from the basket, the Rockets take fewer and fewer shots, until you reach the three point line.  Houston is 21st in the league in shots attempted from 10-15 feet, and are 29th in the league in shots attempted from 16-23 feet.  Simply put, we don't shoot ourselves in the foot with bad shot attempts.

In looking at overall offensive statistics, there wasn't anything that the Rockets do that makes a lot of noise.  We're at or near the league average in nearly every offensive category.  However, the two most important stats that Houston stands out in are Turnover Rate (TOR; percentage of possessions ending in a turnover) and Offensive Rebound Rate (ORR; percentage of offensive rebounds grabbed by a team).  In simple terms, this means that the Rockets don't turn the ball over very much (18th in the league) and grab a bunch of offensive rebounds (4th in the league).  We give ourselves a chance to score points at a higher rate than many teams do.  Unfortunately, our overall offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) isn't anything to really brag about at 105.3, good for 12th in the NBA.

While the Rockets do need to work on some things, such as their abismal FTR (free throw rate), it's clear that Houston is no fluke on offense.  They just make things... easier.

Upcoming Part Two: What's wrong on defense?

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I'll save you time on Part 2

No Yao filling up space around the rim

You’re welcome! :-)

by RedRowdy420 on Nov 27, 2009 4:30 PM CST reply actions  

Haha well put

But there’s just a little more to it.

The Dream Shake ...on Twitter.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak

by Tom Martin on Nov 27, 2009 4:37 PM CST up reply actions  

Fine

Knock yourself out. I’ll be waiting.

by RedRowdy420 on Nov 27, 2009 5:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Good work, Tom.

We’ve talked a lot about how the Rockets are “winning with offense,” and how surprising that is. If you look at the numbers, the Rockets are only 0.001 pts/possession better on offense than last year, but the overall decline in offensive efficiency across the league has them (as of this morning, at least) 9th in the league. Is that because defenses are just tougher this season? Does everyone else just suck? That’s impossible to tell, but it’s nonetheless very surprising that the Rockets are doing this well on offense. The assumption most analysts were making in the offseason was that, if the Rockets were to do well in 2009-2010, it would be because of good defense edging out very poor offense.

I don’t think enough has been said about how the Rockets’ play early in the season needs to change the way we think about a whole variety of players and factors in team basketball.

First (and I’m sure this will be a big part of Tom’s post about the defense), Yao’s impact on defense has to be reevaluated. Yao has always been seen by the public (if not by defensive metrics) as, at best, a decent defender rather than a game-changing one. That’s almost entirely because he doesn’t block a lot of shots, but the fact that the Rockets went from the 4th-best defense in the league in 2009 to the 20th-best in 2010 says a lot. Does Yao’s dissappearance from the court account for all of that? Probably not, but I’d bet it’s most of it.

Second, the statistical community might need to rethink its opinion of low-efficiency, high-usage players. B-R’s blog went into this a few weeks ago when writing about the ‘94 Rockets, but these types of players (they mentioned Sam Cassell and Vernon Maxwell) may be a lot more valuable than we tend to think. Ariza has upped his usage rate by 7%, while his TS% has dropped from .544 to .502. It would be a mistake to assume that this has simply been a regression or a poor year for Ariza, and it seems to me that his sudden volume-shooting ways have probably positively affected the Rockets’ offense. No, I don’t have any statistical support for that contention, and I admit that it just “seems” right, but I doubt that Adelman would tolerate needless shooting or that decades of basketball thinking has been 100% wrong.

by Only_A_Lad on Nov 27, 2009 5:43 PM CST reply actions  

What's the news on TMac tonight?

Any hope? I need to know when he’s coming back for sure so I can get tickets to the game.

by RedRowdy420 on Nov 27, 2009 6:05 PM CST reply actions  

no word for now.

The Dream Shake ...on Twitter.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak

by Tom Martin on Nov 27, 2009 6:09 PM CST up reply actions  

Isn’t the 16-23 foot jumper T-Mac’s favorite?

About Ariza being second in shots near the rim. Surely it wouldn’t have anything to do with the fact that he gets the most fast breaks and shoots the highest volume of shots.

by VBG on Nov 27, 2009 7:09 PM CST reply actions  

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