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Wouldn't Chris Paul be a nice Christmas present?

Oh, yes.  We are absolutely going to discuss this.  You're going to sit here and take it, whether you like it or not.

I came across this excerpt from Bill Simmons' latest column.  Strange enough, he might be onto something here:

Fake Trade 8A: Houston trades Aaron Brooks (expires in 2011) with T-Mac, Scola and Brian Cook (all expire in 2010) for Chris Paul and the Peja-Songaila-Posey cap-killing trio. Considering Houston's deep pockets, it would have to do it -- how else could the Rockets acquire a top-10 player? And New Orleans would fall under the tax (saving them about $16-17 million this year, plus another $25-30 million next year) and replace a decent chunk of Paul's production with a Brooks/Darren Collison combo.

Trust me, I'm not turning this blog into a Bleacher Report column.  Each of you should know that hypotheticals aren't my thing.  But this was too hard to pass up.  And hey, it's Christmas - why not have some fun? 

So, let's get to it.

Star-divide

A couple of reasons why this deal works:

1. Financial Reasons

Tracy's expiring contract frees up 23 million dollars for the Rockets to do with as they please.  Instead of joining the clusterf--k that will be the 2010 free agent sweepstakes, why not take care of business early?  We would take on Peja Stojakovic's salary of fifteen million for 2011 (it expires next season), James Posey's six million dollar salary (expires in 2012), and Darius Songaila's four million dollar salary next season as well (he has a player option for 2011, which essentially means that we'll be suffering from Brian Cook Syndrome for a second consecutive season). 

Then, of course, we pick up Paul's contract, which increases year-by-year until it hits $17 million in 2013.  If anything, we wouldn't have to worry about re-signing him for a while.

So, in total, this is what things would look like (Mr. Alexander, please cover your eyes):

$62,599,914 (Paul) + $29,538,000 (Stojakovic) + $19,435,800 (Posey) + $9,344,000 (Songaila)

= $120, 917, 714.

Now, before we all go crazy, let's quickly subtract the Rockets' contracts:

$23,239,561 (McGrady!) + $3,375,600 (Scola) + $3,500,000 (Cook) + $3,135,211 (Brooks)

= $33,250,372.

Hornets toTal minus Rockets total = 87,667,342.

To most of you, $87 million still appears to be way too much money, especially if the Rockets have to re-sign Yao Ming.

However, let's keep this in mind: How much money would we have to spend in order to re-sign Scola or Aaron Brooks?  If you think Trevor Ariza's 25 million-dollar contract was pricey, think about how much Brooks (remember, a whole year from now) would cost.  We're talking the $40-45 million dollar range over an estimated five years.  Can New Orleans pay him that much?  Probably not, but it's not our problem.  And before someone gripes over that financial estimation of Brooks, consider Mo Williams' contract.  He is making $9 million per year.

Scola, even if he's thirty, will certainly attract a three-year deal, most likely in the $5 million per season range.  So, instead of spending an estimated $60 million to sign two players for the next 3-5 seasons, we are instead going to pay four players $87 million, with only one of those dudes (Paul, a top five player in the league) locked up past 2012.  Even then, we could always move Songaila, Stojakovic, or Posey when they're on the verge of expiring and get even more value in return.  The possibilites of this deal would only begin once it got done.

As for New Orleans, it's all about the money.  They likely won't be able to afford Paul, and won't get a better deal from anyone else, at least not financially speaking.

2. Personnel Reasons

Dealing for Paul would not be in the interest of "getting rid" of Brooks or Scola (we're going to assume McGrady will be moving on, regardless).  The Rockets have succeeded with them in the starting lineup, and the only reason to move one or the other would be Scola's age.  That's it.

As Simmons noted, when you get the chance to acquire a player of Chris Paul's youth, talent, and affordability (he's making $10 million a year less than McGrady or Kobe Bryant), you don't pass it up.  The other Hornets in the deal would only be thrown in to relieve New Orleans of their ridiculously expensive contracts.

Here's what the team would look like with Paul at the helm, assuming we re-sign Kyle Lowry (restricted free agent) and Yao Ming (unless Yao picks up his player option and delays his free agency by one year):

PG: Paul/Lowry  SG: Ariza/Budinger/Posey  SF: Battier/Stojakovic  PF: Landry/Hayes/Songaila  C: Yao/Andersen

I'm assuming Rick Adelman would try to play the kickers as little as possible, though he and Stojakovic do have a history.  That said, Peja is way past his bedtime.

The only predicament with the trade, as of now, would be the handicap it would have on our younger players, like Jermaine Taylor and/or next year's first rounder.  I'm not exactly sure where they would go, other than RGV.  Then again, if we felt comfortable with our roster, we could always deal that first round pick for cash.

Regarding the Hornets - once again, this is the most talented, yet cheapest package that they could find.  They get Brooks for at least one year to keep them afloat, and could always make a run at Scola if they so wished.  It's doubtful that they could afford him, but what if Luis fell in love with New Orleans and took a paycut?  Party time, Russell Brand.

3. It's a franchise-changer

Look at what Paul has been able to do in New Orleans without any talent.  If you give him Yao Ming for the few seasons that he likely has left in him, that's one thing.  But to include Carl Landry (he of similar offensive talent as one David West), Trevor Ariza (who would thrive with Paul like he did with Kobe Bryant), Battier, and Budinger - the possibilities are endless.  And how pretty would our pick-and-roll game look with Paul passing back to Dave Andersen for an easy jumper?

Given Houston's financial flexibilty, this would be a steal of a trade, similar to the Pau Gasol deal involving the Grizzlies and Lakers.  We'd be giving up a washed-up cash machine, a solid, yet aging post player, and a talented point guard, only to replace him with THE most talented point guard.

A few reasons to hesitate

Well, I wouldn't hesitate, but some of you might.  Here are a few reasons why:

1. Landry's defensive rebounding rate is noticeably bad.  It's lower than Chase Budinger's.  Replacing Scola with Carl may not affect the offense, but it could result in more second chances for opponents.  However, to be fair, Yao's return should patch things up nicely.

2. You can't just ignore Posey, Stojakovic, and Songaila - you're going to have to play one or two of them pretty consistently for the sake of the starters' stamina.  While Stojakovic may be a good shooter, it remains to be seen if he can come off the bench in a reduced role.  Some people out there (*cough* IVERSON *cough*) can't simply part ways with a featured role.

3. What if Les doesn't want to spend that much money?  They are his pockets, not yours.

 

Again, to be clear, this is all hypothetical.  Though I do think that it could work for both sides, there are no indications that it could happen; other teams will be hunting for Paul, and even then, New Orleans could hold onto him.  All that I am saying is this:

Just keep your eyes peeled, and keep daydreaming.  That is all.

4 recs  |  Comment 53 comments |

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Suicide for NO

If I’m NO I want more than expiring contracts because trading away Paul puts the franchise on its deathbed.
Trading away Paul means I’m prob gonna suck for a couple of yrs,and Peja and Songalia will be expiring contracts next yr,but Okafor is getting paid major dollars for mediocre production for 5 yrs.

So if I’m NO I offer Paul,Okafor,Posey and Bobby Brown for McGrady,Brooks,Landry,Budinger and at least the 2010 Rockets First and $3mil.
W/Landry I can now move David West for a shorter contract/draft picks.
I sell it to my fans as exciting young talent and milk McGrady while I can.

The Rockets end up losing Scola because of Okafor’s contract so next yr:
Yao,Hayes
Okafor,Andersen,(Posey)
Ariza,Battier,Posey
Taylor,(Ariza),Temple/Llull
Paul,Lowry

by Tisbee on Dec 25, 2009 2:41 AM CST reply actions  

The problem with NO

Is that if you want more than expiring contracts, and by more, you mean “talent”, then you are eventually going to have to pay that talent. New Orleans still gets Aaron Brooks, and will have to survive off of young draft picks for the next few years, until those draft picks expire, need to get paid, and move on.

It could almost be a reincarnation of the Montreal Expos. It’s too early to tell, but that’s the way it’s headed.

The Dream Shake ...on Twitter.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak

by Tom Martin on Dec 25, 2009 3:08 AM CST up reply actions  

And if you were NO you'd get laughed at by Daryl Morey

The Rockets don’t have to make a trade, they’d only do it if they felt it benefited them.

The Hornets HAVE TO get financial flexibility. Their owner is one of the biggest penny pinchers in the league. This works for him two fold :(cover your eyes Hornets fans) 1. He gains money in effect immediately and 2. he will get to move the team like he wants to.

There is absolutely no chance the Rockets trade Brooks, Landry and Budinger along with that much money AND a first round pick. That’s crazy talk. You are asking for three fantastic young players? Not just no, but hell no.

I do get where you care coming from, don’t get me wrong. That’s probably a bit more equitable player for player but that’s not what the Rockets do. It’s also not what is needed.

www.TheDreamShake.com Co-Founder and Writer

by UofTOrange on Dec 25, 2009 9:40 AM CST up reply actions  

Brooks, Landry, and Budinger are all talented role players, but look what happened when Shaq moved from LA to Miami for Odom, Caron, and Grant. Do you think the Bulls would suck this much had they traded for Kobe? And you know that if LeBron does switch teams this summer, the power will immediately go to that team, even if they need to sacrifice their three best players right now. All I know is that NO is in trouble and the Rockets are one of the few teams able to make a move for one of the greatest players at his position.

by brianfbb on Dec 25, 2009 11:58 AM CST up reply actions  

Although I was a fan of Budinger when he played in college.

by brianfbb on Dec 25, 2009 11:59 AM CST up reply actions  

That's not the point though

You do not do that unless you have to. The Rockets could get this done without it

www.TheDreamShake.com Co-Founder and Writer

by UofTOrange on Dec 25, 2009 9:08 PM CST up reply actions  

I understand

But this trade scenario was 3, plus McGrady (so what) AND a first round pick. It was way, way too much in this scenario.

But you are right, you’d still do that trade if you had your hand forced.

www.TheDreamShake.com Co-Founder and Writer

by UofTOrange on Dec 26, 2009 7:08 AM CST up reply actions  

I’m a firm believer in the notion that there are only a handful of players who have the ability to lead their teams to a championship. Right now, Houston has none, and it looks as if CP3 is by far the easiest one on that short, short list to acquire. If I’m Morey, I’d do it. I mean, he took over a team with what, 70%? of it’s payroll tied up in Yao, T-Mac and others and somehow made things work. I’m almost positive he could build a contending team around Chris Paul.

by brianfbb on Dec 25, 2009 4:16 AM CST reply actions  

I would do this trade

as we would likely be able to Trade off Posey to Boston or Orlando and then we may be able to resign Scola in the summer or trade for him back with what we get back for Posey.
The only downer is Songaila contract (thanks to cuban for once again overpaying big men)

"We obviously didn’t know the scouting report that well on Andersen. We knew he’s a shooter but we didn’t see him play at that level." Phil Jackson on underestimating the aussie

by DREAM34 on Dec 25, 2009 6:37 AM CST reply actions  

Regarding point of hesitation #1:

I think it’s selling Landry short to say the offense would be unaffected by him replacing Scola. I think it would actually improve. Enough to make up for the loss of some defensive rebounds? I don’t know about that, but the overall difference in production wouldn’t be that much, I don’t think.

The biggest concern for me about a deal like this is our depth. It does take something of a hit. Now, if we could make another trade to get rid of one of these guys, maybe. I don’t know how likely that is though.

by OremLK on Dec 25, 2009 8:01 AM CST reply actions  

Individually, Landry is a better offensive option that Scola

But losing Scola, like you said, affects our depth. I think Landry is good enough to offset the loss, however, as long as we bring in a someone competent backup. Good point, though.

The Dream Shake ...on Twitter.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak

by Tom Martin on Dec 25, 2009 9:26 AM CST up reply actions  

Scola is the better overall player than Landry, period

That’s in no way a knock on Carl who has taken his offensive game to a new level, but Scola would be the choice for the next two years by every single GM in the league.

That said, Landry has more years left, has done a better job lately of rebounding and clearly has the skillset to be a rebounder if he so chooses. Part of it is what he is asked to do in the offense, and part of it is defensive positioning. Both of those could change Landry into a 7-8 rebound a night guy.

www.TheDreamShake.com Co-Founder and Writer

by UofTOrange on Dec 25, 2009 9:43 AM CST up reply actions  

I think the main difference is

that Scola is the better rebounder, while Landry is a better offensive player. They’re both good at these things, but each has a comparative advantage.

If you’re just looking at the starting lineup, the addition of Paul would probably make up for most of the difference in rebounding between Landry and Scola. There’s about a 10% difference in defensive rebounding between Carl and Luis. There about a 6% difference between AB and Chris Paul. So we’d theoretically see about a 4% drop off in defensive rebounding.

In any case, it’s irrelevant, because I think if you have to replace Scola with freaking current-day Rudy T, you’d still do the trade.

by Only_A_Lad on Dec 25, 2009 9:50 AM CST up reply actions  

I LOVE Scola. Love everything about him as a player and person (that I know of)

and you have to do this trade. Immediately after trying to do it differently. Then you say, screw it, what if you get Scola too. And then under your breath to Luis “Dude, you can come back anytime right after the season”

www.TheDreamShake.com Co-Founder and Writer

by UofTOrange on Dec 25, 2009 9:54 AM CST up reply actions  

Doesn't matter who is included

you do it. The problem with trading for Chris Paul would never be one of giving up too much talent – it’s one of NOLA being unwilling to do the trade. And rightly so, because (barring a trade for Lebron) there’s no way you can devise a trade that would benefit the Hornets on the court in the short- or medium-term.

by Only_A_Lad on Dec 25, 2009 9:35 AM CST reply actions  

Point is

They can’t do it for talent. HoopsHype has a rumor that they aren’t shopping him, but I’m calling bullshit for now.

The Dream Shake ...on Twitter.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak

by Tom Martin on Dec 25, 2009 9:45 AM CST up reply actions  

But that's assuming that their owner cares about that right now.

They aren’t drawing fans, they aren’t winning and he desperately wants to move the team. Thems things add up to a firesale. At least with this trade he gets back a young (top 10?) point guard, a former superstar who fans still believe is one since he was leading All Star voting recently, and a power forward that clearly is damn good. It’s really the absolute best they are going to do. Frankly, I think the Rockets can find a way to do it without including Scola.

www.TheDreamShake.com Co-Founder and Writer

by UofTOrange on Dec 25, 2009 9:46 AM CST up reply actions  

moreover

it gives them financial flexibility in the future. That’s really the only thing about it that works for them. For fans, that’s not enough. For George Shinn and Co., I agree that it might be.

by Only_A_Lad on Dec 25, 2009 9:51 AM CST up reply actions  

why do we have to trade so many people away??

i mean there goes team chemistry out the window… which just so happens to be a major part of our game..
cant we somehow like… not trade away scola? and not get another brian cook…

by AlDe2356 on Dec 25, 2009 9:47 AM CST reply actions  

if you're complaining about our side of the deal

when we are talking about Mr. Efficient, Chris Paul, then I don’t know what to say.

The Dream Shake ...on Twitter.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak

by Tom Martin on Dec 25, 2009 9:48 AM CST up reply actions  

IT'S FREAKING CHRIS PAUL

let me say that again

IT’S. CHRIS. FUCKING. PAUL.

by Only_A_Lad on Dec 25, 2009 9:52 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

i know

i want him too..
id do the trade.. im just not happy abt the other people we get

by AlDe2356 on Dec 25, 2009 12:09 PM CST up reply actions  

i love scola

but like you said, we’re getting chris paul here. losing two of our starters would be tough and scola’s been nothing but consistent for us this season, but we’re getting one of the best players in the nba i don’t think we can complain about what we’re giving up.

by bk219 on Dec 25, 2009 4:30 PM CST up reply actions  

stop it!!!

Dammit, stop trying to trade away Luis Scola!

by grungedave on Dec 25, 2009 9:48 AM CST reply actions  

yes, this was all to piss you off

glad I got a reaction ;-)

The Dream Shake ...on Twitter.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak

by Tom Martin on Dec 25, 2009 9:49 AM CST up reply actions  

We wouldn't be only suitors if Paul's available

If Paul goes on the market,we wouldn’t be only ones trying to trade for him. Expecting NO to trade Paul for expirings and medium Firsts sounds an awful lot like the idiots in NY expecting other teams to fall for their digestive by-product in exchange for a good player.

by Tisbee on Dec 25, 2009 3:58 PM CST reply actions  

That's probably my #1 worry.

Chicago could make a run with Derrick Rose as well, though I highly doubt that.

The Dream Shake ...on Twitter.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak

by Tom Martin on Dec 25, 2009 6:01 PM CST up reply actions  

But we're the only ones that can give them this good of a package

Try doing it for those other teams. You can’t. NY is out because they can’t/won’t give up talent because they really don’t have any. And Curry has a second year on that contract so he’s worthless to the Hornets.

www.TheDreamShake.com Co-Founder and Writer

by UofTOrange on Dec 25, 2009 9:10 PM CST up reply actions  

that's not entirely true

I think the Chicago suggestion is a good one.

Presume the Bulls offer Rose (1), Miller (1), Thomas (1), James (1), Aaron Gray (1), and John Salmons (2) for Chris Paul (3), Okafor (5), Posey (3), and Peja (2). That’s a massive amount of savings over the next few years, and it saves a good chunk of change this year, too.

Still, I think the Rockets would have the best shot at it. I seriously doubt the Bulls would make an offer like that, since it basically takes the core of the Bulls team (which in no way is great or anything) and replaces them with most of the core of the Hornets (which is in a similar position). Plus, Resindorf’s really cheap.

by Only_A_Lad on Dec 25, 2009 9:30 PM CST up reply actions  

Why would the Bulls do that though?

Rose is arguably, potentially the 2nd or 3rd best PG in the league in the next few years. I realize that team sucks, but it doesn’t really do much for the Bulls. They need to get rid of all of the other guys you listed, but not Rose.

www.TheDreamShake.com Co-Founder and Writer

by UofTOrange on Dec 26, 2009 7:11 AM CST up reply actions  

i agree

that when you have a chance to get paul you have to jump on it. he’s on of the 10 best players in the nba and there’s not even a question about it, is young and is relatively cheap for the talent that we’d be getting in return. yeah, we’d be taking on some shitty contracts in order to get him, but i can’t believe people are complaining about trading away scola when it’s, like Only A Lad said, chris fucking paul.

by bk219 on Dec 25, 2009 4:26 PM CST reply actions  

I think most just don't want to have to

But pretty much everyone is saying it’s a no brainer

www.TheDreamShake.com Co-Founder and Writer

by UofTOrange on Dec 25, 2009 9:11 PM CST up reply actions  

Insane

The numbers work out, I see it as a pure money-move; but do the Hornets really want to lose Paul? For the exact reasons you are all excited to get him – he’s young, not fairly cheap, he is really cheap for his production rate and he’s just an all around class act.

Don’t get me wrong, I love CP (he’s on my fantasy team and produces amazing stats), but I can’t see NO not wanting to keep him around for the rest of his career. He’s definitely a solid piece to a winning team.

by jtothet on Dec 25, 2009 8:40 PM CST reply actions  

Keeping CP3 means they stay in NO

Where they are absolutely losing their ass. Cheap or not, he’s a hell of a lot more expensive than free.

www.TheDreamShake.com Co-Founder and Writer

by UofTOrange on Dec 25, 2009 9:12 PM CST up reply actions  

Do it BIG!!!!

okay first off scola is staying. if your speaking on aged players battier needs to go. ariza is equivalent to battier in skills but is younger. brooks stays! i know yall all don’t want brooks to leave so the odd man out that i really dont find as an interesting player is lowery. some how if things works out this way ariza will not be playing sg next season.

2010 line up:
PG: Paul/Brooks
SG: WADE/Budinger
SF: Ariza, whoever else from new orleans peja/posey
PF: Scolandry, hayes
C: STOUDAMIRE or BOSH….?/Yao

thats if we can sign a center to play along with yao because yao will possibly be limited to playing time to stretch his season to compete in the playoffs.
kind of off topic but if the proper pieces were agreed to be traded and the rockets spend in free agencey then the line up may look somewhat like this unless they sign BOSH instead of STUDAMIRE. i know thats a sick line up and i’m aware that big bucks but if everybody is healthy, thats a real squad that will do more than keep up. its going to take a lot of money and negotiating but it is not impossioble. 2010…..

by sk55 on Dec 26, 2009 1:17 PM CST reply actions  

Wut

I’m not sure what to say to someone who thinks we can get Bosh, Wade, Paul, and Yao. Perhaps epic fail, but that’s about it.

Minnesotan Rockets fan

by Barragan on Dec 26, 2009 1:26 PM CST up reply actions  

where the hell

are we getting the money for this?

by bk219 on Dec 26, 2009 3:58 PM CST up reply actions  

FAIL?

yes epic fail considering teams like boston have had losing seasons and aquired kg and ray allen? or the ridiculous amounts of money that the knicks spend on players who turn out to be way worse than the hype each season? how did they get money when they couldnt sell seats when they had losing records to go through with such transactions?

obviously those players want to win. paul wants to win, stoudamire wants to win, bosh is tired of losing, wade always wants to win and has something to prove to the draft class he was in…. those players are pretty loyal to there team but are fed up.

i’m a houstonian and i’m tired of coming close and losing. i’m sure others are tired of rockets losing as well as the managment. i’m just saying it would be sicker than h1n1 epidemic if that could be arrange. its not as retarded as other trade talks like getting jermaine o’neal….. or rudy fernandez.

by sk55 on Dec 26, 2009 4:29 PM CST reply actions  

the deal is...yours is not realistic.

Honestly, do you have any idea of the Rockets’ cap situation to even suggest adding 4 max contract players to our team?

by suzaku on Dec 26, 2009 9:50 PM CST up reply actions  

totally crazy!!!!

so we get Chris and then loose all those players, then who do we have left, it would be Chris switching teams for the same kind of team he has right now at NO.

PLEASE!!!!

by kmbrly429 on Dec 27, 2009 1:21 PM CST reply actions  

Huh?

Who do we have left? Here is who we have left:

Yao. Landry. Ariza. Lowry. Battier. Budinger.

Essentially, it’s the same backbone of the current team, aside from Scola. Paul is THAT much of an upgrade over Brooks. I don’t see how you think this is anything similar to the team that he has in NO…

And plus, we have a coach who actually knows what to do with everyone else.

The Dream Shake ...on Twitter.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak

by Tom Martin on Dec 27, 2009 9:35 PM CST up reply actions  

forgot andersen and the chuckwagon.

Speaking of that, maybe we’ll get to see both Yao and Andersen on court at the same time next year if Andersen becomes a back-up to Carl rather than becoming a back-up for Yao. 2 7-footers with good range both in at the same time.

by suzaku on Dec 30, 2009 10:24 AM CST up reply actions  

arh yes, and then we buy back Scola in summer!

"We obviously didn’t know the scouting report that well on Andersen. We knew he’s a shooter but we didn’t see him play at that level." Phil Jackson on underestimating the aussie

by DREAM34 on Dec 28, 2009 3:58 AM CST up reply actions  

Since we're speculating...

Since we are all just speculating, how about a sign-and-trade or whatever we need to do money wisefor D. Wade? We’ve already seen what he can do with a dominant big man in the middle and I think he knows that. Mcgrady is from Florida if I remember so I don’t see him causing any problems. And we will finally have that proven scorer who can break down the defense and score on his own when the post plays break down. We get D. Wade I see championship by 2012.

by GreatOne1939 on Dec 28, 2009 3:58 AM CST reply actions  

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