Is a certain Rocket being haunted by the Ghost of Christmas Past?
by grungedave on Dec 4, 2009 12:27 AM CST
in Random Commentary
35 comments
We're going to play a little game. It could be fun, depending on your point of view of course.
Here are five stat lines from various Rockets players... the trick is to identify which player the respective stat line belongs to. See, I told you it would be fun! And here we go - take your best guess!
Player A: 37.9% FG, 32.7% 3pt FG, 69.2% FT
Player B: 37.5% FG, 36.3% 3pt FG, 73.4% FT
Player C: 39.4% FG, 35.1% 3pt FG, 71.5% FT
Player D: 37.0% FG, 34.8% 3pt FG, 78.9% FT
Player E: 38.5% FG, 34.1% 3pt FG, 74.1% FT
okay... can you guess who the various players are? Tougher than it looks, I know! Take your best guess anyway, and we'll see how you did in a bit.
[insert Jeopardy! theme music here]
You give up? Okay, okay... the answers to today's quiz are below the jump.
And the answers are:
/Interwebs drumroll please!
Player A: Rafer Alston, 2005-06
Player B: Rafer Alston, 2006-07
Player C: Rafer Alston, 2007-08
Player D: Rafer Alston, 2008-09 (w/ Rockets)
and
Player E: Trevor Ariza (!?!?!), 2009. Yes, it's true.
Now, before Trevor Ariza came to the Rockets and turned into a gunner with no aim, he carried career averages of 45.7% shooting on standard FGs. Granted, he's never been anywhere near the 3 point shooter he appeared to be in the playoffs last year (and anyone expecting him to shoot 45% from deep this season was delusional to begin with).
Nevertheless, Trevor Ariza is eerily becoming what I never want any Rocket to be - and that's a Rafer Alston clone on offense. Even worse, for all the shit we gave Rafer when he was here, at least he could dribble the basketball and not turn it over. Trevor, however, is giving it away at a ridiculous rate of 2.6 TOs a game and he's jacking up a Rasheed-esque 7.0 3pt FGs every game. And missing almost five of them every outing. This is bad, bad, bad basketball.
To this I say:
Trevor, I want to like you. I really do.
But for this to actually happen, stop shooting it so f--king much!!
Now, if you insist on shooting the basketball (which Coach Sleepy and resident boy genius Daryl Morey apparently want you to do), that's okay. Just take it to the basket. Layups and dunks are your friend. Your mid-range jump shot is mostly useless because you take forever to wind up. Your three-point shooting is abysmal unless you are stepping into the shot and someone kicks it out to you from the post. Never, ever should you be shooting off the dribble. It's a worse idea than the Jump to Conclusions Mat... and yes, I know you have your own prototype and everything. It's still horrible, this idea.
Please reconsider your approach, Trevor. Being the next Rafer is NOT something anyone should aspire to be. Unless you like being a useless cog in an 0-18 machine.
Now, Trevor, if you tell me that you feel haunted by the ghost of Rafer Alston -- that would make a hell of a lot more sense. Though I'd still suggest you not shoot as much, just to be safe.
1 recs |
35 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
Please man, don't start with some Ariza=Alston stuff.
It just doesn’t add up at this point. We had YEARS literally, of Alston doing that. We have had 1/4 of a season of a guy who was a 4th banana trying to step up his offense. He is trying to step it up because he was asked to do it. It bears repeating – he was asked to do it. I seriously doubt anyone asked Alston to do what he did. I think it’s WAY too early to call the Ariza Offense Project a failure.
His handle isn’t great, but its notably better than it was the first week of the season. Also he can shut down quick, tall, wings. How many guys in the NBA can do that? 2? 4? Not many, anyway. His offense is still better than, say, Raja Bell, or Bruce Bowen – particularly if he plays within his strengths more.
I think he’s going to be fine. This is a weird year, and we’re not even halfway into it. I say, don’t play the Alston card. It’s premature.
sorry dude, but...
20 games is actually a fairly significant sample size. Especially given the number of minutes Trevor gets every game.
I’m not saying he’s Rafer, but what I am saying is that you can sometimes excuse a guard for shooting 38%. You CANNOT allow a frontcourt player to shoot 18 times a game at 38%.
by grungedave on Dec 4, 2009 10:00 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
It's enough of a sample that you can comment on it.
Enough that you can say – “if this keeps up…” which is fair at this point but far from conclusive.
Would you rather have Artest at the deal he signed?
oh hell no.
But this isn’t about Artest v. Ariza or even if Ariza was a good signing (he was).
This is about a man who needs to shoot a hell of a lot less and realize his limitations.
by grungedave on Dec 4, 2009 11:50 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
No, I agree actually.
He needs to shoot less, or make more shots. It was the Rafer thing that got me riled up.
They are indeed similar
Let’s have a friendly wager – I say Ariza’s stats end the year better than that. And that’s not even counting his (very real) defensive contribution.
We’ll bet a beer. Even a watery, expensive Toyota center beer.
Agreed with Xiane
Trevor is not here for this year. As much as we want the Rockets to make the playoffs this year (I’m not saying they won’t), Trevor is here for next year and the three years after that. With Yao+other really good player, Ariza will get more of the open three-pointers that he saw as a Laker.
Plus, Ariza contributes way more on the defensive side of the ball than Rafer. Alston was a decent one-on-one defender, but Trevor is better. He’s also more likely to get steals and get easy points off breakaway dunks. Also, I think he’s a better passer than he gets credit for.
How many Biletnikoffs does he have? NOT TWO!
That is changing.
I think we started the year that way, but now the #1 option is pretty much context dependent, as we have scoring possibilities everywhere (even C!), depending on lineup. This team is showing more and more balance and scoring potency, and that’s without giving any appreciable minutes to the guy who was #2 (3?) in scoring in the NCAA last year.
The idea that the offense is centered on Ariza is more a holdover from the first couple of weeks, when we were finding our way more, than the current reality. Ariza needs to shoot fewer 3s, or slow down on his shot, actually. I think he’s rushing it.
The reason we get some bad nights from him now, I think, is dependent on the lineup. If we have Lowry, Ariza, Battier, Scola, Hayes in the lineup, a decent D really only has to account for Lowry and Scola – and take it’s chances with Ariza. Which makes me think we’re just going to kill teams if TMac comes back healthy, and just as important, buys into the system.
About T-Mac, I found this-
Houston: The Rockets continue to offer Tracy McGrady(notes) in a trade, but that will be a difficult proposition
considering he’s the highest-paid player in the league ($23.2 million) and no one has seen him play in nine months. Houston seems willing to take back a longer-term contract for McGrady, but most executives believe his high salary makes it hard to put together a package.
Rockets GM Daryl Morey and coach Rick Adelman don’t want McGrady back with the team, and have insisted that he isn’t physically ready to return to the lineup. McGrady would love a trade, but knows he must start playing again for it to be possible.
by VBG on Dec 4, 2009 2:30 AM CST up reply actions
ummmm
There is no “#1 option” on the Rockets. It’s a compilation of guys that would be 3rd options at best on any other team.
As Detective Lieutenant Somerset once said to Detective Mills…
“For once, you and I are in total agreement.”
Ariza cannot be TMac
The problem with Ariza is that he is being asked to be the number 1 option when he is essentially a bench player. The Rockets, for some reason, do not want to play McGrady. I assume it is the money but I dont know. But Ariza is a good player who will only be a good player and will never be a Tmac. I think Rockets management has given up on the season and are happy with selling tickets for fans to watch “a team that plays hard”. Next year, Yao is back and the team will add another true go-to scorer to replace McGrady. Then Ariza will head for the bench where he belongs.
he is not a bench player. he's starter material.
he just isn’t playing to his strengths enough.
I trust the advanced stats guys on our team.
I think after a certain number of games, they will sit Ariza down and tell him these are what you’re good at and these are not. These are what you need to keep working on. This is where you’re efficient. As of now, they’re allowing Trevor to expand his game and test his limits. Similar to David Andersen whom they figure to be adjusted to the NBA rules and style of play after 3 months.
turnovers
Even worse, for all the shit we gave Rafer when he was here, at least he could dribble the basketball and not turn it over. Trevor, however, is giving it away at a ridiculous rate of 2.6 TOs a game
It’s not ridiculous once you adjust for pace. In fact, Trevor is turning the ball over less than Rafer ever did. Rafer always had a turnover rate between 13% and 16.4% while in Houston. Ariza right now is turning the ball over 12.5% of the time, which isn’t really any different from his rates over the past two years.
If anyone on the Rockets absolutely needs to work on not giving the ball away, it’s AB. His TOV% is 18.4, which is kind of ridiculous.
yeah, but...
Ariza isn’t a guard and shouldn’t be handling the ball as much as Alston did.
Trevor is a turnover machine at times.
The thing about Brooks is
about 1/2 his turnovers (not scientifically measured) look to be simply careless. Another good portion seems to come from him getting hacked on drives with no call.
That doesn't really change the fact that it's a turnover.
Now, if he’s getting hacked and not getting calls, then I’d say the same thing about Ariza’s trips to the rim. Hopefully these things will change as the season progresses. I think they will.
No it doesn't change it at all.
I should have elaborated. Carelessness can be fixed by being careful. Hacks can be called. Brooks is obviously aware of the problem, and a bright guy. I say his rate goes to a high-normal PG rate starting soon.
True,
but the same can be said of Ariza, I think. Not that many of his turnovers are related to simple carelessness, but I really think his handle has gotten a lot better over the last month or so. And when looking at his games, it seems to me that there’s been a general trend towards fewer turnovers since the middle of November. Obviously, last night wasn’t great, but that’s just a single game.
But the worst thing about alston was
not only was he shooting is poorly by jacking up contested 3’s and long twos or just missing badly while wide open, but he would get to the lane and throw up those ugly floaters that would chip paint off the rims and would then be too deep when the opposition rebounded and the other PG would punish us with fast break points. And he would do this 7 times a game!
"We obviously didn’t know the scouting report that well on Andersen. We knew he’s a shooter but we didn’t see him play at that level." Phil Jackson on underestimating the aussie
Trevor needs a word with Carl Landry regarding efficiency.
I honestly think it’ll help.
hmm
those stat lines…
are fairly even… ariza seems to be pretty much even with what alston did at his best..
basically ariza now is as good as alston ever was
Trevor,
I love you, and I think you are a terrific player. But you have handles like a fucking dickhead.
by Senses Working Overtime on Dec 4, 2009 9:36 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd for Kenny Powers
"I am from one of the top 15 cities in the world. Buffalo, New York." - TrentEdwardsHoF2018
Before Trevor was playing off the ball and usually got a couple of easy baskets a game cutting backdoor and offensive rebounding which he’s not getting here.
Re the T-Mac comparison. Watch Trevor in the Rocket’s offense. Usually the Rockets give him the ball in the high wing spot and expect/allow him to “create”. This is exactly what they used to do w/McGrady. Which brings up some interesting questions.
If they’re using Trevor pretty much the same way they used McGrady,how could McGrady not fit into the “new” offense? Either all the talk of McGrady not fitting into the Rockets offense is BS or it’s a smokescreen.
If the Rockets don’t plan on McGrady being back next season and assume Trevor is going to be a key guy,the longer T-Mac is held out the more experience Trevor gets as the main guy. Because I think all assume that if/when McGrady plays,Trevor will revert to being the side-kick. So is McGrady being held out partly to develope Trevor?
Is Ariza capable of being the main guy? Not w/out learning how to dribble w/out losing the ball and I don’t think that’s gonna happen. My opinion,and I happen to really like Trevor’s game.
some things...
There are some things you just never get “better” at once you reach the NBA. The ability to dribble a basketball competently is something you rarely see someone improve on at this stage in their career. Ariza should NOT be handling the basketball this much.
Even Robert Horry was smart enough to pass it to a guard because he knew he had terrible handles. He played to his strengths. Trevor just has to learn this.
#1 option
first, in addition to the win over the Lakers, they also beat Portland, so that’s a second very good win.
There are just lineups on this team where it’s hard to create offense. Chuck had a great first 10 games or so, but he’s reverted a bit on offense, so we’re closer to playing 4-on-5 when he’s out there. Everyone is being asked to push themselves more on offense. Even Shane Battier has taken more ill-advised mid-range and post-up shots this year, simply because the offense won’t score points by itself.
Alston put up those numbers on teams with Yao and TMac diverting a LOT of defense’s attention, so Alston should have been able to find efficient shots or pass to one of those two who are better able to create. Ariza, on the other hand, is often on the court when there’s no one else that the defense pays more attention to than him.
Maybe we just need to bring back Luther Head to start at that position. Can we trade Ariza for Luther?
at the time, yes
Everyone is beating Portland now…
Ariza will be fine, but all those 3s he’s taking are shots he can easily pass up for something better. (And the same can be said for when Kyle Lowry tries to shoot 3s, too.) I have faith Ariza will figure it out – but I saw the stat lines for his shooting percentages and it freaked me out.
I mean, I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t point out how scary similar Ariza’s shooting is to Rafer Alston’s…
i get your point
and I agree that the similarity to Alston is fascinating.
If Ariza has clean looks from 3, he probably needs to shoot, though.
I think the goals for Lowry and Ariza are different. Lowry is a backup point who has a nice handle. For Ariza, if he wants to be a top-3 option on a good team, I think he needs to be a quality three-point shooter. He doesn’t have a good post game, and his mediocre handle has been well chronicled here. I just don’t see how he can be a #3 option or better if his offense consists entirely of slashing when he is open off a rotation, finishing in transition, and hitting the offensive glass. I made the comparison to Shawn Marion a while back and still think it’s a good one. If Ariza isn’t a quality 3-point shooter, I don’t see that there’s any way he gets in the all-star conversation; I imagine that at least getting in the conversation is something that Ariza would see as a feasible aspiration.
My prescription:
Quit taking well-covered mid-range stuff, make sure you’ve got a clean look before taking a 3, and pray that he will be a good 3-point shooter but is just going through a rough stretch right now. Brooks has had plenty of poor stretches shooting, and I certainly think he’s a very good NBA shooter.
That picture of Ariza shooting
almost exactly resembles McGrady’s shot.
by goingforthecorner on Dec 9, 2009 2:24 AM CST reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on The Dream Shake
Related FanShots on The Dream Shake
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
