Shane Battier - All Star
Here's a really good article from Michael Lewis (author of Moneyball) on Battier. It's a bit long, but it's a great read. One of the more interesting stats is that, when his plus-minus stat from last season is adjusted, Battier contributed as much to his team when on the court as T-Mac, Vince Carter, or Carmelo Anthony.
9 months ago
Only_A_Lad
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I should check before posting
Really good read.
by Cornholio on Feb 14, 2009 12:53 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
It was posted on Canis Hoopus too (T'Wolves blog)
by Cornholio on Feb 14, 2009 4:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, it was posted on Deadspin
so it’s getting a lot of love
by Only_A_Lad on Feb 14, 2009 4:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Gigantic article, 8 pages
Best part was Morey when he said the guy who made the standard box score should be shot.
by goingforthecorner on Feb 14, 2009 4:16 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I remember reading a Wages of Wins article a while back,
The author was criticizing some comment from Morey that was basically to that effect. Morey said the Rockets were looking for things that didn’t show up in the box score, and that all the player’s contributions couldn’t be found using standard statistics. The blogger thought this was foolish, basically because PER could be calculated using only box score statistics.
I think this article does a really fine job of explaining why that just isn’t true. The bit about blocked shots is an excellent point, as is the point about team rebounding percentage.
It will be very interesting to see what Morey will do in 2010, when McGrady and Yao’s contracts come off the books. Yao will almost certainly be re-signed, but (as much as I like T-Mac) I doubt he’ll still be here for the 2011 season. I wonder what the NBA’s Billy Beane can do with an extra $22 million in cap space.
by Only_A_Lad on Feb 14, 2009 4:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
shorthand
The WagesOfWins guy is sometimes too smart for his own good. He’ll manipulate stats just to get a result he wants and create some controversy. Example? His “Robinson was better than Olajuwon” piece…
by grungedave on Feb 14, 2009 5:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Frankly, wages of win is great for conversation
But terrible for actual analysis.
by UofTOrange on Feb 14, 2009 8:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It's amazing how much better of a defender Battier became after Morey came to the team.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak
by Tom Martin on Feb 14, 2009 4:44 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
finally read this whole thing
Battier rejecting Pitino and Kentucky simply because Pitino violated Battier’s allowed window of time to contact him……. that’s beautiful.
by grungedave on Feb 14, 2009 8:40 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
3 from the corner is the most efficient shot on the floor? Can anyone prove this to me?
Your a ten, but I'm on eleven!
by JakedaSnake on Feb 15, 2009 2:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I can't find a league-wide shot distribution chart,
But if you take a look here at teams in any given season, it generally seems like corner 3s are higher-percentage shots than 3’s from elsewhere.
Efficiency is determined mathematically. The most efficient types of shots are free throws (they take no time off the clock, event though each one is worth only a single point) and threes (they score one more point than a field goal in a roughly equal amount of time and an equal number of possessions).
So if you look at the numbers for the Rockets last season, their highest-percentage shots were from the left-hand corner and right under the basket. If you have a choice between those two shots (let’s say Battier is open in the corner and Yao is posting up), you can look at the expected payoff for each. The expected value for the field goal would be 1.108 points (0.554*2), while the value for the corner shot would be 1.224 (0.408*3). So the corner 3 is the most efficient shot the Rockets could take.
by Only_A_Lad on Feb 15, 2009 3:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Another way to look at that claim is to look at the shorter distance of the corner three by the points gained. It’s the shortest distance on a 3pt shot, therefor the most valuable. Why? The chance of a shot going in decreases with distance (can’t prove, but it seems axiomatic). So either shoot as close to the basket as possible for a 2, or as close to the basket as possible for a 3. Very long 2s and 3s are poor odds for the return.
Like most statistical proofs, I’d imagine its a minor improvement, but if applied consistently over hundreds of shots will lead to an increase in points scored. This increase, in turn, using the article’s figure of 2/3 of NBA games being decided by 6pts or less, yields an extra couple of wins a season on a statistical basis, at least.
What are a couple of wins worth in an NBA season? It depends on who you are. Using the baseball prospectus concept of “marginal wins” you see that it matters what sort of team you have. If you are OKC a couple of extra wins don’t help, and might even hurt, with lottery chances. If you are LA, and are #1 by a comfortable margin, they don’t matter that much either.
But what if you’re Houston? If two wins (against say Philly, or NYC – grrrr) can matter greatly, shifting you to having home court in the playoffs. Those wins are tremendously valuable to you. So shoot your 3s in the corner, Mr. Alston. Please.
by Xiane on Feb 15, 2009 4:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
A Michael Lewis Article Is Huge
We don’t have that many superstar writers producing sports pieces anymore, or not that many that are worth reading. A long piece appreciating Battier’s game from Lewis is excellent.
So, really, what we want to do is somehow transfer Battier’s brain into Dorsey’s body?
I’ll say this about Morey – he’s winning. His approach is working. This is the best Rockets team from a depth perspective I’ve ever seen. Our 2nd unit can run, or out produce about 65% of NBA first units. Our problem is that our first unit is, to put it mildly, inconsistent. Also, the renowned Adelman problem with closing out games has reared its ugly head – it’s like he doesn’t have anything in his playbook for “up 7, 8 minutes to go”.
by Xiane on Feb 15, 2009 4:21 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
agreed
Our 2nd team is better than most lottery teams.
which only makes me more disappointed in Adelman.
Oh, and because the 3 from the corner is the “shortest” 3 attempt, mathematically it is more efficient because it is worth more and relatively easier… only by a few percentage points, but as the article points out — those add up by the end of the game.
by grungedave on Feb 15, 2009 5:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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