Your Houston Rockets: 2009 NBA Champs. It's not that far-fetched. Really.
by grungedave on Apr 13, 2009 11:16 AM CDT
in Random Commentary
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PrintThe Rockets have two more games in the regular season. They need to win both. Tonight they play New Orleans (a team coming off a spectacular outing against Dallas. Chris Paul's box score was sick.). Then the Rockets finish off the season by playing Dallas ... a game that may have no meaning to the Mavericks.
Here are the Western Conference standings as of this morning:
If the playoffs started today, the Rockets would be the 4th seed in the West. (Tie-breaker currently goes to San Antonio for division record.) This is not good. This is why we were so angry after the unexplainable losses to Washington, Toronto, Memphis (twice), Philadelphia (twice), Milwaukee, Chicago, Indana (twice), New York and the Clippers. You realize the Rockets could be resting Yao this whole week. But no... they had to make it difficult on themselves.
The Rockets need to acquire a top 3 seed. Which requires us to win out. Here's why:
Likely round 1 opponents:
New Orleans, Portland, San Antonio. If the Rockets bump up to the 3 seed, they would likely face New Orleans. This is good. New Orleans may have CP3, but the good guys match up well with them. This is winnable.
If the Rockets slide to the 4th or *gasp* 5th seed, they would likely play Portland or San Antonio. Both of these teams are beatable. Brandon Roy needed to make a 30 foot shot at the buzzer, otherwise the Rockets would already own the tiebreaker against Portland. The Rockets beat San Antonio just a few weeks ago.
Here's the problem with a 4 or 5 seed though...
The Lakers are going to f--kstomp the Utah Jazz. (You suck, Utah! Haha.) As a 4th or 5th seed, the Rockets would meet up with the Lakers in round 2. The Lakers have been Chris Brown to our Rhianna this year. 4-0. It's ugly. We do not want to play Kobe and the Gang until the Western Conference Finals. If at all (hey, L.A. could lose in round 2. It's possible.)
If we assume the Rockets get a 3 seed and matchup with New Orleans in round 1... here's the likely Round 2 setup:
Denver.
Yes, Denver. I have no clue how Denver earned the 2 seed. None. Because the Rockets should crush the Nuggets, even if Denver has homecourt advantage. So I would very much like this matchup. Because the Rockets would win. They would. I will not accept arguments to the contrary because they would have to be nonsensical.
That would mean the Rockets could rather easily coast into the Western Conference Finals. Where they would meet the Lakers. Or, if there really is a God, maybe San Antonio. Whom we can beat.
Then we could crush the Spurs (just like in '95!) and go to the NBA Finals.
Where I'm sure LeBron James will await.
Then again -- why be afraid of LeBron? I think LeBron remembers exactly how good the Rockets can be when properly motivated (and having the services of a healthy Battier + Artest). LeBron does NOT want to see the Rockets in the Finals. He'll never tell you that, but we are on a short list of teams he would like to avoid.
Dear Basketball Gods, please make it happen. Pretty please?
Go Rockets!!!
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If the Rockets win out and denver loses one
the Rockets get the 2 seed. Yes the rockets blew a bunch of games to weaker opponents but have played well against the good teams so far (besides LA). If we win out the rockets hold the tiebreaker over San Antonio due to wins vs. west playoff teams, over Denver by head-to-head, and Portland by head-to-head. Here’s to hoping the losses to Washington, Toronto, Indiana x2, Memphis x2, Philadelphia x2, Milwaukee, Chicago, New York, and the Clippers end up being only learning experiences and not harmful in seeding. Go Rockets!!
Waiting for the day Houston gets some sports respect.
Quite complicated scenario
This article here does a pretty good job of breaking down all the scenarios.
Basically, if we win out, we can do no worse than 3rd, but could potentially move up to 2nd if Denver loses one of its remaining games since we own the tiebreaker over Denver (head-to-head). We also own the tiebreaker over Portland (head-to-head). With the Spurs, we split the head-to-head match-up, likely will be equal on 2nd tiebreaker (division record) assuming both teams win out, but we squeak ahead of them on the 3rd tiebreaker (conference record).
This is all a mute point if we can’t win these last two games.
Denver still has to play Portland away
So the odds of them losing at least one more game seem pretty high.
that's right
San Antonio’s division record would be the same if we all win out… I neglected that aspect.
However...
if Houston, San Antonio, Denver and Portland all end up tied. Houston gets the 2 seed! Did you say that? Did I overlook it? Sorry if I did.
by misterterrific on Apr 13, 2009 11:57 AM CDT reply actions
This would be awesome!
I swear to you I woke up today, went to espn.com and looked at the standings and thought this very exact same thing.
I echo that last line in your article.
Dear Basketball Gods, please make it happen. Pretty please?
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
excellent assessment, david.
i provided a similar, though largely ignored if not berated, commentary over at ball don’t lie the other day. the two or three seed is ideal. it doesn’t really matter which they get because, like you said, and to which i wholeheartedly agree, they will thwart the nuggets, regardless of homecourt advantage. it’d probably only take five games.
and momentum is a crucial component. if they can win two playoff series against teams that were, all season, basically their equals, then who knows what sorts of greatness would carry over into the western conference finals?
it’s sure to be a phenomenal playoff season in the west. and, this may be my ultrabias talking here, but i just don’t think the lakers have this mandate to reach the finals everyone suspects they do. they’re going to have to earn it against three teams that want it as much, if not more, than they do. they can’t beat the bobcats, for god’s sake.
psh. that mentality is so two months ago.
by the grawlrus on Apr 13, 2009 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions
wow
this actually got me excited. this whole time i’ve been praying to avoid Utah in the first round i never figured this out. Utah could still make 7th i believe?
It seems to me
The odds of Utah sliding up to 6th or 7th are reasonable. They’re two games behind NO, one game behind Dallas. Assuming our best case scenario of winning our last games against NO and Dallas, the best either team could do is go 1-1, assuming Dallas beats MIN at home and NO beats SA on the road.
Utah also has two games, home to the Clippers and on the road vs the Lakers. It’s hard to see them losing another home game to an awful team, so It all comes down to their last game against LA. Since Cleveland has wrapped up home court throughout the playoffs, LA could rest Kobe/Pau and essentially punt the game to Utah. In this scenario, Utah slides up to seventh, Dallas goes to 8th, and NO is in 6th. If NO loses both games, there could be a 3-way tie and Utah would slide up to 6th.
ugh
the only team i don’t want to play in the first round is Utah … whatever it takes. we’ll have a hard time with them even with home court advantage!
by YaoButtaMing on Apr 13, 2009 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions
As long as we don’t play Utah, I’ll be happy. I hate them with every fiber in my being. Yes, I said hate. Hate is a strong word but when it comes to Utah its not strong enough. Its like I wanna jump in my TV and choke them out! lol
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
by xFenixKnightx on Apr 13, 2009 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Don't worry about the "H word" here Fenix
If this blog’s hate for Utah was a mountain it would be Everest.
You’ll learn some interesting things here too. Like people in Utah have nothing better to do than troll Rockets blogs. That they truly don’t understand why they are beneath contempt. That they still think clothes and hair from “Footloose” are cool. This blog is not only the best Rockets site around, it’s a window into the sick, twisted soul of Utah Fan – and that’s not a pretty sight.
Pity them, and despise them.
Yeah I’ve been lurking for a while and I noticed some actual Utah fans are members here. I was like WTF?!! Weirdos for sure. I don’t give a crap about how many times they’ve beaten us, they never do anything after. We got 2 rings baby!!! They might be a little old but we gottem! :)
Utah are teh suxorz!!!1
lol
Mike Goldberg: "You know Joe, When Matt and his brother Mark Hughes were growing up, they would pound each other behind the barn."
by xFenixKnightx on Apr 13, 2009 7:11 PM CDT up reply actions
There's no way in hell
That Utah can win their last two games without Deron Williams. They’re stuck in eight, believe that!
by Carlos_HoustonSportsFanatic on Apr 13, 2009 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Wait and see,
That sort of injury has a way of screwing up basketball playing, the way a “mild” wrist injury messes up baseball players.
If New Orleans can't do it
I’d have to root for Houston. Can’t stand any of LA, BOS, CLE, SAS, DEN, UTA… wow, long list.
i wrote a post not too long ago about the seeing. when you look at it, the chances of two of the three teams winning out are very high; HOWEVER. . .
1. Houston is currently on a 4-game streak, building momentum for more wins (case in point: 22 in ’08). On top of that, we typically own the Hornets at home and own the Mavs on the road, so that also is in our favor.
2. Portland has to play a terrible team (who has the Spurs number) and then a good team at home, where they have been pretty difficult to beat.
3. San Antonio has to face Golden State tonight (on part 2 of the back-to-back) and then New Orleans at home. If you go to my post, you will see how i called it: If Sactown gives the Spurs a run for their money, they will run out of gas in Golden State. I mean, they had to cheat to win, so I’m gonna go out on a limb and say they’re worn out. On top of that, Timmy might not play again. On top of that [again], Golden State is coming off of a BIG win against Utah in SLC. I’m gonna call it like this [again]: Spurs lose tonight, beat the Hornets.
This has interesting implications for the 6 7 8 race.
1. The Hornets would lose both , which would leave them at 49-33 (oh how the west is different, where you don’t have to win 50 to make the playoffs anymore).
2. The Mavericks would finish 1-1 (I’ll give them a win over the Wolves) and, as a result, at 49-33.
3. The Jazz, I hate them a lot, but they still should beat the Clippers, and the Lakers might throw their final game of the season to get an easier draw. End-result: 49-33.
If this were to happen, the West would look like this.
1. Lakers
2. Rockets
3. Nuggets.
4. Blazers
5. Spurs
6. Jazz
7. Hornets
8. Mavericks
So we’d get the Hornets in Round 1 (which I’d still be very happy about, Tyson or no Tyson), and would receive the winner of Nuggets/Jazz in Round 2 (I’d take the Nuggets in 6 in Round 1). The Lakers get what they want this way, and the Blazers should be able to finish off the Spurs with home-court advantage. The interesting matchup is round 2 POR-LAL. If the Blazers can really get their shit together (one idea, rout the Spurs in your last game), they have a shot at giving the Lakers a run for their money. Either way you cut it, the Spurs and Blazers are two of the teams in the West who can legitimately challenge the Lakers (as far as regular season records indicate), and for all i care, i hope the blazes win their next 12 games or so, and get to the conference finals so they can be treated with yao taking a dump on them again.
Wafer . . . again. (Marv Albert, HOU v. CLE Feb 2009)
-one of the FEW at Toyota Center who has the Wafer jersey
I like it but ...
you’re banking on the Rockets winning both upcoming games when they play 2 teams trying to get better seeding as well. i’m confident but skeptical at the same time plus if Adelman tries to rest our guys we’re screwed.
how do you have Denver slipping to 3? they have 2 easy games left in my opinion so i see them staying in the #2 and Rockets go to #3 or #5 if they go 1-1 next two games. Plus I’m hoping my Warriors beat the Spurs but if they don’t and the Spurs go 2-0 then we’re in trouble. I’m hoping you are right but i fear the following:
1. Lakers
2. Nuggets
3. Spurs
4. Rockets
5. Blazers
6. Hornets
7. Jazz
8. Mavericks
Which then means if we make it to the second round we play the Lakers. This will be fun to see what happens after tonight :)
by YaoButtaMing on Apr 13, 2009 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions
How do you see Denver having 2 easy games left?...
they host sacramento tonight(easy) and visit portland on wednesday which is not easy at all. it is very reasonable to say that denver will lose on wednesday and thus possibly drop from the 2 seed.
Waiting for the day Houston gets some sports respect.
by TexasHoosier on Apr 13, 2009 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions
because ...
they’ll beat Kings easy … and then they’ll beat Blazers on Wednesday. I just see it happening. I think people underestimate the Nuggets! with Billups there … they are a good team!
by YaoButtaMing on Apr 13, 2009 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Hmm
One thing for me is – has anyone noticed how well Dallas is playing? I don’t particularly want Dallas right now. I think we can beat them, but I’d rather play NO, even with CP3 being God Jr. or whatever.
which is why ...
i’m worried we might lose and go 1-1 to end the season!
by YaoButtaMing on Apr 13, 2009 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Fair point. I think we can close strong, but who knows.
This is one crazy finish in the West. I’m engaged like I haven’t been in a long time.
"so they can be treated with yao taking a dump on them again."
Funniest thing I’ve read on this blog, with the funniest thing I saw being the pic of the two homosexual Utah fans and Ashton Kutcher.
Gimme some sack lunch
the best the jazz can do is 1-1
phil jackson said he wouldn’t rest anyone for the final game of the season. so they’re not beating the lakers in LA
Especially if -
If you are playing your likely 1st round opponent in the last game of the season do you want to:
A. Rest, take it easy, and maybe let them have a win on your court.
B. Beat the living crap out of them, to demoralize them for the upcoming battle.
I’m pretty sure I know which one Phil Jackson will pick.
i’ll be at tonights game, section 434, watching the victory unfold. it’s been noted that if more than one team we’re tied with wins out, we hold the tiebreaker. and i have a good feeling about the blazers beating the nuggets,which gets us the 2 seed; if portland can’t get it done we just finish 3 seed and don’t have homecourt against the nuggets, which doesn’t seem like too big of a deal to me.
Wafer . . . again. (Marv Albert, HOU v. CLE Feb 2009)
-one of the FEW at Toyota Center who has the Wafer jersey
NOT FAR FETCHED?!!
ARE YOU GUYS CRAZY?The Rockets would be lucky to get out the first round,and if the Rockets could lose to the crappy teams that they played during the season,what do you think will happen against a powerhouse team?No one can beat the Lakers in the West and i hate to say it,but The Lake Show is gonna win it all this year and im not a Lakers or Kobe fan.So instead of jumping ahead and saying that the Cavs dont wanna see the Rockets,you should say the Rockets dont wanna see the Jazz
huh?
If the Rockets get a top 3 seed (which this is ALL based on), how would they be “lucky” to escape round 1? They’d be favored against any team they would play. And they WILL win.
I just want LA to play PDX.
The Lake Show simply DIES in the NW. Portland is LA’s Utah – LA’s strengths are Portland’s strengths, and I think Portland has an equal bench (or will in about another year).
It’s all “Rock Paper Scissors”
The team with the best record in the NBA would very much NOT like to face Houston in the finals (as pointed out in the post). Houston, who I do believe can beat CLE (presuming no Miami/Dallas BS reffing) doesn’t want to face the 8th seed in its own conference. If Houston draws right, we can win it all. I truly believe that. If we draw wrong, we might (ugh) be out early.
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