Let us not forget how nice it is to be a Rockets fan in 2009
by Tom Martin on Apr 13, 2009 1:32 PM CDT
in Random Commentary
41 comments
We are a week into the Major League Baseball season, and the Astros are 1-6. Contrary to Dickie Justice, Cecil Cooper, and all of the other "Yes We Can!" buffoons out there, I don't think the 'Stros have a chance in hell this season. You want a number? How about 70 wins, maybe 75; that's an optimistic approach right there. Drayton's Boys are old, fragile, and inefficient. If you think Brian Moehler, Mike Hampton, and Russ Ortiz are going to combine to win more than 12-14 games, you're crazy. If you think Michael Bourn was actually worth the price of Brad Lidge (though moving Lidge was necessary) and will suddenly hit more than .250 this season, you're crazy. And if you're waiting for basketball season to end so you can start rooting for your favorite underwhelming hometown baseball franchise, you're absolutely insane. We need to cherish every moment we've got with this year's Rockets team before it comes to an end. Hopefully that will be sometime around mid-June.
As far as the regular season goes, Houston sports fans are spoiled. The Astros are competitive every year and have been since the turn of the century, when they lost 90 games in Minute Maid Park's inaugural season. The Rockets have had success in the regular season for the last 5-6 years, with the exception of the injury-plagued 05-06 season in which we finished dead last in the division. But with the Texans still a year or two away from taking the next step towards playoff success, and with the Astros looking like they might be in the dumps for a few seasons due to their horrible farm system, the Rockets are currently the kings. They've got the best shot to win a championship, as well as the best shot to entertain fans with wins. It's about time that Houstonians really gave the Rockets the credit that they deserve.
Unlike the Astros, the Rockets have hope for the present and the future. And it's not just hope - it's a legitimate chance at a championship. Championship-caliber teams don't just waltz in to your city every now and then. Ask Pittsburgh Pirates fans. Ask Milwaukee Bucks fans. Ask anyone who currently lives in San Francisco. It's not very much fun to go to a game knowing your team is going to lose.
Rockets fans shouldn't take regular season success for granted just because the playoff records have been disappointing. 50-win teams are hard to come by, and yet we've been doing it for a few years now. Before you say, "Western Conference Finals or bust" or "Finals or bust," consider what "bust" really means. I'd hate to have to root for the Sacramento Kings right now - that's what you call a bust. How about the Chicago Bulls? Or the Warriors? The Clippers? The Washington Wizards? They all know what it means to be a bust, and it really, really sucks. I'll take my 50 wins and a first-round exit over 30 wins and a lottery pick. Sorry, draft talent evaluators, but it's true. I don't care if the guy can change my franchise. I know we all love the ridiculous upside that lottery picks bring, but I'm happy with a pickless draft if it means that we're winning.
The only scenario in which I could see myself wanting young draft picks over wins is if we were old and guaranteed to rot in the next year or two. Like the Astros, for instance. At that point, I'm shouting, "Rebuild!" at the top of my lungs. But with the current Rockets team we have assembled, and with our current financial situation, I think we're going to be just fine over the next few years. We've got young talent at every position, we've got a huge trading chip in McGrady, and if we decide against that, we can go spend millions for some uber-mega-talented free agents in the NBA Apocalypse of 2010.
It's a comfortable feeling, being a Rockets fan. I never thought I would say that, because normally it's the opposite - we've always got the injuries and the let-downs to sucky teams and whatnot. But seriously, compared to more than half of the teams in the NBA, we're lying back in our lawn chairs and sitting pretty. Don't complain about 50 wins, because for some teams, 50 wins and a 1st-round exit would be mighty nice.
I'm going to look back on this season, and the season before, and remember how much fun it was to see us win games instead of lose them. I'll remember how much fun it was to watch games against rivals that actually meant something. There's nothing worse than having Spurs or Jazz tickets when the rival teams are poised for a playoff run and the Rockets are coming up with excuses not to tank. No, this season was fun to watch if only because every game was important. That doesn't happen every year. Go search some of the other SB Nation basketball blogs whose teams won't be going to the playoffs and see how much fun they are having writing about it.
With all of that said, I do expect the Rockets to get out of the first round this season, and I would be disappointed if we failed to do that yet again. This team is certainly more than capable of winning in the playoffs - now we just have to do it. If the team and the players and the coach and the front office and the ownership and the fans and the media proclaim this season a failure if we don't get out of the first round, I won't be one to disagree. But I won't forget how much fun it was to get to that point, either.
Let's give everyone hell in the playoffs, shall we?
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True words.
Being a Texans fan (like many around here I assume) I know what it’s like to suffer. We should all be grateful to have such a resilient basketball team to root for.
Here’s to an awesome month of playoff basketball.
AMEN
If you think about it, the Astros were the Rockets for a long, long time, with their nemesis being the Atlanta Braves. Year in and year out, the Astros played super well during the regular season and lost in the first round to the Braves, again and again. FINALLY the Astros (DESPITE THE ODDS) won two playoff series to make the World Series by BEATING the best team in the National League, the St. Louis Cardinals, who at the time if my memory serves me correctly had won over 100 games.Here’s to this years Houston Rockets making a run to the Championship. The news looks good, Yao Ming is not seriously injured but rather only has a bruise. Even if we slip up and lose at Dallas and make the 5th seed, I have no doubt in my mind that we can beat whoever our first round opponent is and maybe even find a way to win in Los Angeles. Go Rockets. Unleash Hell.
Fans
I think this town has finally made the transition from a football to a basketball town. GO ROCKETS!
weren't we a baseball town for a while?
Fuck it. We’re just a front-running town. And we’ve earned the right to be front-runners at this point.
yeah i was convinced it was baseball myself
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak
Von Wafer
Has been a great surprise. What do you see happening to him next year? Hold on to him? Trade since his value is up? I really like the kid.
Whatever happens...
I’m confident that Morey will make that correct choice.
In my opinion, due to the signing of James White for next year I would think that Morey is planning on moving Wafer due to his high stock like you said…
Think about what a luxury that statement is -
We have nearly total confidence in the Rockets front office. This team has more overall talent than any Rockets team I have ever seen. No, we don’t have the stratospheric brilliance of Hakeem, he was a “once in a lifetime” player – we DO have more ability top-to-bottom than any Rockets squad I’ve ever seen.
Stat geeks rock.
shame on you
“But with the Texans still a year or two away from taking the next step towards playoff success”
blasphemy.
Oh, right
Who says teams need a halfway decent pass defense to win games? Blasphemy!
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak
or a run defense
last in the league on Football Outsiders, as I recall.
Still, they’ll make the playoffs this year.
Good perspective
Astros – desperately need to rebuild. If magically our farm system became twice as good overnight, it would rise to “below average”. Teams like NYY, BOS, TAM, LA, AZ (and God help me, TEX) simply leave talent better than we possess at the MLB level to rot in the minors.
We need to quit counting on improbable miracle runs (that go against our actual production) to bring us a false sense of competitiveness. In my opinion it’s time for Drayton to sell the Astros. He’s made plenty of money, but he’s been running the team like his grocery shipping business over the past several years. Baseball isn’t won by pinching pennies, but by developing stars. Do you see any stars down on the farm? I don’t. We may need to say goodbye to some beloved players to get boatloads of prospects starting this year.
Texans – I think they are a playoff team right now. It’s easy to find 2-3 wins that we just gave away, and I can think of no wins we just lucked into. If Chris Chandler, oops, I mean Matt Schaub, stays healthy and Slaton/Johnson keep it up, that’s a top 5 offense. If the D can just become average, that’s a playoff club. I think we finally have enough healthy talent in the secondary to be average. If we can get one more pass rusher, then adequacy on D is ours. That’s all it will take.
by Xiane on Apr 13, 2009 4:53 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I think we are one year away to be honest (I said 1-2 for the sake of the argument)
We desperately need to shore up that pass defense, both at the safety position and at outside linebacker. We gave up the most yardage per game in the NFL in terms of mid-distance passes (in other words, the 10-20 yard passes that a safety would break up to defend or an OLB would drop back to defend). That’s where our defense needs to improve the most. If we can snag Michael Johnson at the DE position in the 2nd round of this draft, he shores up our DE need. I’m certain that if you give this defense one year to work out the kinks, we are set by 2010 for a playoff run.
I’m not saying the Texans won’t get there this season, but it will be even more probably in 1-2 years.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak
Fair enough.
I think we can make the playoffs this year, and be ready to contend next. But hell, AZ went to the superbowl, and I don’t think they have more talent than we do.
Speaking of Texas
We GAVE them Justin Smoak. That offense of theirs is going to be incredible in a year or two. Maybe even this year.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak
ugh
we’ve talked about this SO MANY FREAKING TIMES at TCB. Not drafting smoak probably allowed the Astros to get significantly better talent further down in the draft than they would have had they given Smoak the kind of signing bonus he wanted (examples: Seaton, Lyles, Dydalewicz). And there really wouldn’t have been anywhere for Smoak to play when he comes up this/next year. Berkman really can’t play anywhere but first these days (though he plays a very good first), and (unlike when Lance was coming up, blocked by Bagwell) left field is occupied by Carlos. And Carlos Lee, even if he were to waive his no-trade clause, is essentially untradeable thanks to his ridiculous contract. The Castro drafting made sense.
Here's the thing
It’s all a long process – Smoak wouldn’t be up for another 2 years. In our situation, you have to draft talent over position. It’s what good rebuilding teams do.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak
I'll respectfully disagree.
There’s no set amount of money we could spend that limited us. And talent finds a way to play. Even if it means a trade of someone.
Carlos Lee – well if there were enough injuries in BOS or NYY, maybe we could move him.
What I’d like to see is us spending just a bit to pick up talent that isn’t valued elsewhere and see if it might work. For example – how hard would it be to get Melky Cabrera and Ian Kennedy from NYY? Those two strike me a players than mentally don’t fit in NY, but might be ok elsewhere.
agreed
Drayton could spend a lot more if he wanted to. But I think Wade made the right move on draft day given the amount of money he has to spend on prospects.
For example – how hard would it be to get Melky Cabrera and Ian Kennedy from NYY? Those two strike me a players than mentally don’t fit in NY, but might be ok elsewhere.
And what do you give the Yankees in return? The only thing the Yankees might want from the Astros right now is Oswalt, and that requires Roy waiving his no-trade clause (something he’d probably do). But if you’re going to trade Oswalt, you can do a lot better than Melky and Kennedy.
Oswalt?
No I think you could get those guys for Valverde and a so-so minor leaguer. Not because that’s a fair trade, but because NY is so down on those two players.
And yes, of course, none of us know how teams value a guy at any given time – look at the deals this winter – all over the place. What I mean is, I don’t think we’re very opportunistic about signing players with any upside at all while they’re not well regarded. We seem to sign known mediocrities (like say Erstad) instead.
I’m not saying “Trade Matsui for Justin Upton” here. But where are the Justin Upton’s in our system? It’s been a long time since we’ve brought up someone really good. Pence was more of a surprise good (not great thus far) MLer.
this is Valverde's last season before free agency
you might be able to get a single decent prospect for him at the deadline, but it might just be worth it to keep him and offer arbitration in December.
But where are the Justin Upton’s in our system?
The closest we have are the starting pitching prospects currently in A ball. No, we don’t have any great hitting prospects (Castro is seen as a good but not great hitter, but we’ll see. I like his plate discipline, and he showed good power in college), but the Astros essentially didn’t have a decent draft for about two years.
And Erstad is a decent fourth outfielder, and that’s all the Astros are using him for. Erstad garners a lot of hate (mostly because he was the butt of a lot of FJM jokes and people overvalued him throughout his career), but he’s a fine bench player.
The real proof of where the Astros are going is going to be in the June draft. Heck is a highly-regarded talent evaluator, so I think we can trust some deviations from the “expert” picks, but I’ll reserve judgment on Wade until his second draft. I think they both did a good job last year, though.
The question was really
When was the last time Houston drafted a player with the kind of “Wow” factor that Upton has? It’s possible to do it, even drafting late. JUST OPEN THE CHECKBOOK and DEAL WITH BORAS. Look at Porcello in Detroit if you disagree.
And basically Drayton lost me the year we didn’t sign ANY top picks because he was “playing hardball” with “slot money”. Slot money is amply demonstrated to be a delusion.
It does you no good to whine about “slot money” while your farm goes to hell in a handbasket. The Astros aren’t a poor team – not as rich as NY or LA or BOS, but certainly well off. And where does the money come from? From using a modestly talented 23 year old 4th OF from your own system instead of paying the Daren Erstads of the world. There’s one big signing bonus right there.
Those two words...
Justin Smoak
They pain me. It’s hard to describe my annoyance with the Astros right now. Not because I’m a fair weather fan, but because it was so easy to see all this coming, year after year. To me the Astros are a team that keeping move balances from one credit card to another and calling that sound financial management.
It was really a financial comparison.
Of course we’re in good shape. MMP is a huge money spinner, and we’ve slashed development and draft budgets until quite recently. It was more the idea that this is a team that keeps wallpapering over holes instead of fixing the wall.
granted, they've done that since 2004-ish
but Wade and Heck seem pretty committed to developing talent. Drayton is probably unwilling to trade Oswalt or Berkman for prospects, but I don’t think that’s really a bad thing. It’s entirely possible that the Astros can turn it around in a few years, depending upon how Drayton feels about spending this coming offseason, and so not trading away your franchise players makes sense.
Besides, I don’t think Berkman would waive his no-trade for anyone but the Rangers, and they’ve got enough offensive power as it is.
You never have enough offensive power
Particularly if you’re giving away outs at:
CF
3B
C
2B
Keppinger was a good trade though – at least a versatile OBP guy to replace a versatile OBP guy in Loretta.
But Houston was once a pioneer in Venezuela and elsewhere – and our 90s farm system threw a simply staggering amount of talent into the majors. Houston had a top farm system, and now its universally ranked last. Why was this dismantled? So Drayton could have a higher profit margin. His draft “budgets” represent nothing more than a Bud Selig party line.
Teams that pay for talent get talent. Teams that dont – don’t.
Drayton isn’t a bad owner – but his roots keep showing. It’s time for him to ride his 18 wheeler filled with toilet paper and Tide into the sunset.
But Houston was once a pioneer in Venezuela and elsewhere – and our 90s farm system threw a simply staggering amount of talent into the majors.
The Astros (perhaps correctly, given the political issues) got out of Venezuela last year. But that was coupled with an overhaul of Astros facilities and scouting departments in the DR.
Houston had a top farm system, and now its universally ranked last. Why was this dismantled?
It wasn’t so much dismantled as the system the Astros had been using was destroyed. A lot of that talent was scouted using the “draft and follow” system (Roy is probably the best example of this). Essentially, you’d draft a LOT (as I recall, the Astros had one draft where they drafted well over 100 prospects) of high school players and hope that they go to junior college. If they went to a university, you’d lose your negotiating rights with them, but as long as they went into a junior college, you could negotiate with them until the next draft. If they (like Oswalt did) went to junior college and showed that they were legit, you’d sign them for a relatively cheap price.
But that strategy was eliminated in the last CBA. So the Astros lost their main method of gaining talent.
And then Drayton fired Hunsicker (supposedly about offering a contract to Biggio) and the Astros’ main scout in Venezuela left, and then Drayton got really short-sighted.
(I’ll go ahead and adress your other post here, too)
When was the last time Houston drafted a player with the kind of "Wow" factor that Upton has? It’s possible to do it, even drafting late. JUST OPEN THE CHECKBOOK and DEAL WITH BORAS. Look at Porcello in Detroit if you disagree.
True, Lidge was the last player really like that. Maybe Burke.
And basically Drayton lost me the year we didn’t sign ANY top picks because he was "playing hardball" with "slot money". Slot money is amply demonstrated to be a delusion.
And last season he spent significantly over slot money for a lot of Wade’s picks. In fact, I think they didn’t sign only 1 player out of their first 10 (can’t remember his name, went to Georgia or USC or something instead). He spent a lot of money on Seaton, Lyles, and Dydalewicz last year. Drayton didn’t spend a whole lot of money, but he finally started spending more than average.
From using a modestly talented 23 year old 4th OF from your own system instead of paying the Daren Erstads of the world. There’s one big signing bonus right there.
Who would you suggest they use?
Particularly if you’re giving away outs at:
CF
3B
C
2B
Well, I was actually referring to the Rangers and why they wouldn’t trade for Berkman….
Yeah, Bourn sucked last season. But some of his projections look good, and I think he can be average. The Blum/Keppinger platoon doesn’t look good. Catching sucks, but it’s sucked for about eight years, and it should still be good defensively.
Second base is actually pretty good when Kaz is healthy. We’ll see what they do with Sutton when Kaz inevitably goes down at some point this season.
Anyways, the point is this: Drayton spent a lot more money last season in player development. The Astros overhauled their presence in Latin America, they spent much more on the draft, and they even signed some foreign prospects. Your criticisms would be spot-on last year, but things seem to be heading in the right direction right now.
That’s a good point about draft and follow – its a shame for Houston as it’s been effective for us. But it wasn’t a true shock and other clubs seemed more prepared than we were.
I’m glad to see we are finally heading in the right direction. Maybe Venz. was a political thing, but I doubt it. I didn’t know about the revamped DR effort, though – that’s a good thing. As I recall Venz. sort of fell apart when our main guy down there left some years back, so maybe its just as well.
Anyhow, I’ll take what you’ve said on board, and proceed with cautious optimism. But if I see a bunch of freaking “signability” or “over draft” picks this year then we’ll know its still more penny-pinching hogwash from the front office, won’t we?
As for a 4th OF – No there isn’t anyone. My point being – there should be. In good systems often prospects who don’t end up stars still make the club.
Listen, I’m not giving up on the Astros, but we’re in a terrible position right now, and it didn’t have to happen. It was pretty easy to see what I think will be a couple of truly wretched seasons building year by year. it takes about 3-5 years to build back a farm, without huge trades, so we’re in for suffering.
Still and all, if what you say proves true, and we are moving in a positive direction, well, we’re better off than some clubs out there. It just pains me to see what was once a model franchise on the field and on the farm turn into THIS.
and i rec'd it for the Chandler comparison.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak
Update!
Astros lose 7-0 to Pirates, make yet another average pitcher look Cy Young-like.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak
I think I need to focus on the Rockets here on TDS.
I’ve digressed enough, and it’s making me sad. I say the things I say because I’ve loved the Astros since I was a little kid and they’ve pissed me off to no end recently.
Hey you forgot about
the amazing success the Dynamo had in its first couple of years in Houston.
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