Well this is it! Just as I (and I'm sure most others) thought, Houston, Denver, Portland, and San Antonio all won tonight, and nothing was decided other than Portland cannot win the Northwest, Denver clinched it with a win tonight against Sacramento. Even if Portland beats Denver on Wednesday, Denver takes the tiebreaker by virtue of a better division record. So Portland can now finish no higher than 3rd. Denver has clinched home-court advantage in the first round by winning tonight.
Out of the 6th through 8 seeded teams, Dallas and Utah both won while New Orleans lost here at Houston. Dallas is tied with New Orleans for the 7th seed and Utah remains a game behind both of them, in the 8th seed. Unless the Jazz can miraculously win in LA, they will play the Lakers in the first round.
All four of the teams jockeying through playoff spots #2 through #5 routed their opponents this evening by 20 points or more.
Houston beat New Orleans 86-66
Portland decimated Okla City 113-83
Denver finally pulled away to rout Sacramento 118-98
San Antonio blew past Golden State
Still All Tied Up
Houston, Portland, and San Antonio remain tied at 53-28. Denver stayed a game ahead of all three of the others with their win. (The Nugz are 54-27)
One Last Time before the final day, here are the current standings:
2.) Denver: 54-27 @ Portland, Wednesday, April 15th
3.) Houston: 53-28 @ Dallas, Wednesday, April 15th
4.) Portland: 53-28 VS Denver, Wednesday, April 15th
5.) San Antonio: 53-28 VS New Orleans, Wednesday, April 15th
6.) New Orleans: 49-32 @ San Antonio, Wednesday, April 15th
7.) Dallas: 49-32 VS Houston, Wednesday, April 15th
8.) Utah: 48-33 @ LA Lakers, Tuesday, April 14th
With one game left, here are the final scenarios. It will all be decided on Wednesday.
IF Houston, San Antonio, and Portland win out: Moderate to HIGH probability, (San Antonio and Portland play home games and can win both, Dallas lost to Houston in D-town once already this year, they can lose there to Houston again.)
2.) Rockets: 54-28, Would clinch the 2 seed by tiebreaker over Denver. (Head-to-head) Rockets would clinch the Southwest Division.
3.) Nuggets: 54-28, Would lose game at Portland, and Houston would beat the Nugz out by virtue of the head to head tiebreaker. Nugz would finish 3rd. (Portland cannot finish above Denver even if the Blazers win, Denver wins the division automatically)
4.) Blazers: 54-28, Would lose the tiebreaker to Houston because of Houston's better head-to-head record and would win the tiebreaker against San Antonio because Portland won the head-to-head.
5.) Spurs: 54-28, Would lose the tiebreaker to Houston because of the Rockets' better record against playoff teams, and would lose the tiebreaker to Portland because Portland won the head-to-head.
IF Portland, San Antonio, and Houston ALL LOSE and Denver WINS: VERY LOW to LOW probability (One of the first three at least should win.)
2.) Denver: 55-27, clinches 2nd seed outright. Most wins
3.) Houston: 53-29, clinches 3rd seed and Southwest Division, tiebreakers over Portland and San Antonio
4.) Portland: 53-29, clinches 4th seed, tiebreaker over San Antonio
5.) San Antonio: 53-29, clinches 5th seed and loses homecourt to Portland.
IF Portland and San Antonio WIN and Houston and Denver LOSE: MODERATE to HIGH probability, (Dallas has a 31-9 record at home and Portland has a 33-7 record at home. These teams can both win. Hopefully not Dallas though!)
2.) Denver: 54-28, Would clinch the 2nd seed because the Nugz hold the tiebreaker over the Spurs (head to head games) and over the Blazers even if they win (Better division record)
3.) San Antonio: 54-28, Would grab the 3rd seed because of their Southwest Division title (unless I'm wrong, that trumps the tiebreaker. Please correct me if I am wrong.)
4.) Portland: 54-28, unless I'm wrong, they'll finish below San Antonio because this scenario gives the Spurs the Southwest crown.
5.) Houston: 53-27, this is what I'm hoping WON'T happen, because Houston would lose homecourt advantage to Portland. However, the Rockets played well at the Rose Garden last time around and could steal one on the road. Lets just win in Dallas though and take that 2 or 3 seed!
IF Houston, San Antonio, and Denver WIN and Portland LOSES: Low to Medium Probability (Portland's GOOD at home, 33-7)
2.) Denver: 55-27, Denver takes 2nd seed outright, better winning percentage than all the others.
3.) Houston: 54-28, Clinches Southwest division title and the 3rd seed
4.) San Antonio: 54-28, Clinches 4th seed and homecourt over Portland
5.) Portland: 53-29, 5th seed, starts playoffs AT San Antonio.
IF Portland and San Antonio BOTH LOSE and Houston and Denver WIN: Low to MODERATE probability, (it could happen though, because San Antonio's been bad against New Orleans and Denver is a good team)
2.) Denver: 55-27, takes 2nd seed outright, better winning percentage.
3.) Houston: 54-28, takes 3rd seed and Southwest Division title outright, better winning percentage
4.) Portland: 53-29, takes 4th seed because of the tiebreaker against San Antonio
5.) San Antonio: 53-29, falls to 5th and loses homecourt to Portland due to the tiebreaker going to the Blazers.
IF Portland wins and Denver, Houston, and San Antonio ALL LOSE: Low Probability (The odds are that at least one out of Denver, Houston, and San Antonio will win on Wednesday.)
2.) Denver: 54-28, takes 2nd seed outright, best winning percentage
3.) Portland: 54-28, takes the 3rd seed outright, better winning percentages than Houston and San Antonio
4.) Houston: 53-29, takes the 4rd seed and the Division crown from San Antonio by virtue of not the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, but the FOURTH tie-breaker (most head to head wins against playoff contenders I believe? Correct me if I'm wrong.)
5.) San Antonio: 53-29, takes the 5th seed because they lose the tiebreaker to Houston.
IF Portland and Houston both win and San Antonio and Denver both LOSE: (Moderate Probability)
2.) Houston: 54-28, clinches the 2 seed by virtue of the tiebreaker
3.) Denver: 54-28, clinches the 3 seed by virtue of the tiebreaker over Portland
4.) Portland: 54-28, clinches the 4 seed, beats San Antonio outright
5.) San Antonio: 53-29, gets 5th seed, worst record of all 4
IF Portland and Houston both LOSE and San Antonio and Denver both WIN (Low to Medium Probability)
2.) Denver: 55-27, clinches 2nd seed outright
3.) San Antonio: 54-28, clinches 3rd seed and Southwest Division outright
4.) Houston: 53-29, ties Portland, tiebreaker goes to Houston
5.) Portland: 53-29, ties Houston, loses tiebreaker to Houston
BASED ON THESE RESULTS, I'll let you figure out who the teams would play, it depends entirely on how the 6 through 8 seeds end up, and THAT is a race that does not concern our seeding right now. I may post that one later.
However, based on these 8 scenarios we can find out which team has the best chance of ending up where and we'll do it based on which seed they got in which scenario: If your heads are spinning, take a deep breath, close your eyes, and rest for a minute. Then read on haha.
The table below shows the seed each team got in each scenario. We'll add up the total number and divide by 6 (the number of possible scenarios) to get an average number. REMEMBER, the LOWER the average is, the BETTER OFF a team is! ENJOY!!!
TEAM SC.1 SC.2 SC.3 SC.4 SC.5 SC.6 SC.7 SC.8 TOTAL
DENVER 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 18
HOUSTON 2 3 3 3 4 5 2 4 26
PORTLAND 4 4 5 4 3 4 4 5 33
SAN ANTONIO 5 5 4 5 5 3 5 3 35
The team with the most LOW numbers is favored in the majority of scenarios (DENVER)
The team with the HIGHEST numbers has the least amount of favorable outcomes (SAN ANTONIO)
When we divide the total by the number of scenarios (8) it gives us an average. The lowest average shows the most favorable team to take the 2nd seed. The numbers come out like this: (Maybe this is meaningless, but it will show you the probabilities based on the scenarios that I've typed out.)
DENVER: Average of 2.3 - Denver has the highest chances of getting the 2nd seed
HOUSTON: Average of 3.3 - Houston is favored to get the 3 seed
PORTLAND: Average of 4.1 - Portland is favored to get the 4 seed
SAN ANTONIO: Average of 4.4 - San Antonio has the highest number, and therefore the least amount of favorable scenarios. San Antonio is likely to get the 5th seed.
REMEMBER, this means NOTHING come Wednesday! Just for fun! I hope you enjoyed reading this! It should help you understand which teams have more favorable situations!