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Playoff Perspective: New Orleans Hornets

"Playoff Perspective" provides a look at the Rockets' possible playoff opponents from the opposing blogger's point of view. Each team, from Dallas to LA (as the chances of us playing Phoenix aren't very probable), will be represented. On today's edition, our fellow SBN bloggers at At The Hive give us insight on a Rockets-Hornets first round match up.

What advantages do you think the Hornets would have over the Rockets in a playoff series?

With Tyson Chandler and Peja Stojakovic both out, the Hornets really don't have many significant advantages. Houston is below average at turnovers and offensive rebounding, and the Hornets force turnovers and defensive rebound well, so that would be a plus. Chris Paul is still Chris Paul, but he loses some of his edge, due to the quickness of Aaron Brooks. I'd also say that the Hornets have a slight advantage in terms of athleticism. Julian Wright has re-emerged into a crucial role as of late. Based on that fact, it would be very beneficial for the Hornets to run at every chance. New Orleans typically plays a slower brand of basketball than Houston, but with Paul, Wright, and Rasual Butler running the floor, they are highly proficient at running the break. If the turnover battle I mentioned above turns in favor of New Orleans, the fast break would obviously become a more common occurrence.

Disadvantages?

The big disadvantage would be health. Right now, Chandler is in a walking boot, Peja is experiencing "shooting pain from his back to his legs," James Posey has some sort of mysterious elbow injury, and David West's ankle is sprained all kinds of bad. Sure, T-Mac is out for the Rockets, but his offensive production plumetted this year anyway, and there have always been questions about his defense. As a result of those injuries, the Hornets' interior defense is nonexistent. If a guard gets into the paint, he's getting a layup. Now if Yao Ming gets in the lane... On top of that, the Hornets' shooting percentages have sunken into mediocrity this year. Considering that Houston doesn't foul (2nd best foul rate in the West), forces more misses from the floor than any team in the conference (1st best eFG defense in the West), and doesn't allow offensive rebounds (2nd best defensive rebounding in the West), things could get ugly for the Hornets real fast.

Would home court advantage affect your chances greatly, marginally, or not at all?

Compared to some other teams, I don't think it would matter too much. I mean, HCA is always a big factor; to ignore its effects completely is silly. That's not a knock either on New Orleans Arena, which has transformed into one of the louder venues in the League the last couple years. It's just the Hornets have the third best road record in the Conference right now, and they've shown the ability to perform in tough locations. HCA would be far more advantageous to a team like Portland (which, if I'm remembering correctly, has just one road win against West Top 7) or to a team like Utah (since they can't conduct regular muggings).

Compared to the other possible match ups, how confident would you be in your team if they faced the Rockets in the first round?

Minus a healthy Chandler and Peja, I'm not feeling too confident about any matchup, let alone the Rockets. Chandler was not only the centerpiece of the NBA's 7th best defense last year, but also the primary screen setter for Chris Paul. If- and it's a big if- those guys return healthy, I think the team will surprise some people. The bench has really picked up its play with a few bench players serving as spot starters. If someone can get hot to accompany Chris Paul, who knows?

Want to know more about the Hornets?  Check out At The Hive.

 

0 recs  |  Comment 14 comments |

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Atleast someone took the time

to ask the hornets bloggers about “What advantages do you think the Blazers would have over the Rockets in a playoff series?”

Rockets FTW

by BlackBlessing on Apr 3, 2009 2:31 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

not sure what you're talking about, bud.

"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak

by Tom Martin on Apr 3, 2009 9:13 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

as you see

they cover their tracks.

by misterterrific on Apr 3, 2009 9:45 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nice

Learned a few new things, didn’t know that the Rockets were so good at not fouling. I’d take Rockets over Hornets 4-1 considering how much the Hornet defense has declined this year but I don’t think any team really wants to play against Chris Paul in the playoffs. I kinda consider them the Heat of the west this year (or maybe the Heat are the Hornets of the east) – phenomenal talent playing on a mediocre team (Hornets cause of injury, Heat cause of youth/ general suckiness).

The Hornets could end up giving some unlucky team alot of trouble if they get healthy soon and magically revert back to last year’s defense.

by Worthy J. on Apr 3, 2009 3:01 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

fouling

I did the math on it, and the Rockets are the 4th-best team in personal foul differential in the league, and the 3rd-best in the West. Those are absolute numbers, however, and two of the higher-ranked teams (Suns and Lakers) play at a significantly quicker pace than the Rockets. If you adjusted for pace, the Rockets would probably be the 2nd-best in the league.

personal foul differential

It doesn’t seem to be strongly correlated with performance, since there are plenty of teams with very strong records (Heat, Celtics, Spurs) on the bottom, and a few bad teams towards the top (Suns, Warriors), but it’s an interesting look at teams.

by Only_A_Lad on Apr 3, 2009 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

also you must factor in hack-a-shaq to the suns

but nice work there lad. you and your “math”…

by fiddycent on Apr 3, 2009 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow

Thanks for the chart, some really interesting numbers. The Jazz probably shocked me the most, there’s no way they should have a positive differential in my mind. Other than a few teams, it seems like what you’d expect though. The teams at the top seem to be the ones that are relatively good at defense and the ones at the bottom seem to be the ones that are bad. The middle seems to be a mishmash of great and terrible. The Suns, Warriors, Spurs, and Celtics seem to be the biggest exceptions but I can find reasons for all of them to be where they are.

by Worthy J. on Apr 3, 2009 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah, the Jazz are surprising

They actually commit a good number of personal fouls (though, as we all have seen first hand, they probably should get called for some more), but they’re main strength is getting fouled – the 2nd best in the league, as a matter of fact. I’d be interested to see their split between calls at home and away – I’m willing to bet that they don’t get nearly as many calls on the road, and that’s why they suck away from home against decent teams.

You see the opposite with the Spurs – they commit the fewest fouls in the league, but they don’t get fouled very often, either. I expected them to commit few fouls, but the common perception is that Manu and Parker create a lot of contact and get fouled often (at least that’s my perception). I guess we should expect them to not go to the line very often, though. They’re a very perimeter-oriented team sometimes.

The Magic are just ridiculous.

The Celtics are pretty interesting. I know a lot of observers (Lakers fans in particular) thought the Celtics played pretty “dirty” defense (I"m inclined to agree, actually), and the foul data supports that, to some degree. The only team that fouls more is Milwaukee.

The Bucks are obviously the most extreme, though. The foul a lot and get fouled a lot, though the differential puts them very far down the list. I imagine Bucks games take a lot of time to finish up.

by Only_A_Lad on Apr 3, 2009 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Another day...

Another road loss for Utah.
Think I’ll be repeating this a lot this month.
Lately, it’s been more fun watching Utah fail again and again than the Rockets games.
I mean, Houston’s games got me more confused and irritated than entertained, while a Jazz box score shows me hilarious things like:

Boozer: 7-for-23
Okur: 2-for-12
Kirilenko: 1-for-10
Millsap +/-: -22
Jazz bench (the best ever, according to their fans): 28
Nuggets bench: 54
Chris Andersen: 8 blocks
Jazz personal fouls: 36 (hackers!)
Jazz road record: 14-23 (against winnig teams: 1-16. FAIL!)

Thank you, Utah Jazz.

by Chuck DeBruce on Apr 3, 2009 9:07 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

don't forget

Kyle Korver’s “defense” on JR Smith.

by grungedave on Apr 3, 2009 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't get it.

What is it with butt-slapping Korver?
Reggie Evans did it earlier this season and now Smith.
Is Kyle’s behind so irresistible?

by Chuck DeBruce on Apr 3, 2009 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

When an opposing player meets Kyle Korver, they are reminded of the time they spent money to watch The Butterfly Effect. Then a murderous rage takes over.

by Jeffrey on Apr 3, 2009 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not really.

But I notice when various players do a little more than “watchin” to it.
And, by the way, Evans got a technical for that. Refs don’t approve.

by Chuck DeBruce on Apr 3, 2009 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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