Game Preview: Houston Rockets at Portland Trailblazers - Game 5 - NBA Playoffs - 9:00PM CST
by UofTOrange on Apr 28, 2009 3:45 PM CDT
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Game is at 9:00PM CST, ignore the graphic, just can't change it right now, I'll try later.
The Match-ups:
Point Guard
Brooks/Lowry vs. Blake/Rodriguez - Blake had a much better game in Game 4, and I'd even give him the advantage for that game, however, that's 3 games to 1 now and Aaron Brooks is back in Portland. How about this Kevin Pritchard: you give us Bayless, you get Brooks. He gets to play where he puts up 20 a game, and the Rockets get a big upside guy, it's win/win! In all seriousness, Aaron Brooks will likely be his first 2 games self tonight and I expect that to be a huge difference for the Rockets. And I wouldn't expect either of the Rockets point guards to miss any more free throws. If they do, I want them running laps, it's that bad.
Edge: Rockets
Shooting Guard
Battier/Wafer/Artest vs. Roy/Fernandez- Brandon Roy did exactly what he should do in Game 4: Take the ball, run to the basket, draw the foul. It's the simplest play in basketball when you are good at ball control. He should never go away from that, no matter what for as long as he can in his career. It's a full proof plan and one that Battier and Artest can't really stop. That said, they can completely slow him down, and regardless of his points total, he was slowed in Game 4, and halted in Game 3. Ultimately, Roy is going to get his points, it's about keeping him from facilitating for other players and that's what Batt-man and Ron Ron have done so well in this series.
Edge: Trailblazers - Seriously, Brandon Roy is every bit as good as D-Wade, it's time people recognize it
Small Forward
Artest/Battier vs. Batum/Outlaw - I was asked why Batum started over Rudy Fernandez today, and it seems like it's only because the Blazers want Fernandez's scoring off the bench, ala Manu Ginobli. It's a pretty solid strategy, they just need to trust Rudy Fernandez to be the guy if that's the case. I'm not completely sold that McMillan does trust him but it's coming with every big shot he hits. I could not be more impressed with Fernandez when they let him roam free. For all the Blazers Batum fans, I'm just not seeing it guys, and I'm hoping I don't for the rest of the series. Ron Artest has been incredibly solid except for a couple of 5 minute stretches in this series. He's been calm and slowly has gotten in the heads of the Trailblazers team. It's been pretty fun to watch. His stats are not there offensively, but a lot of that is because Scola, Battier, Brooks and Lowry have stepped up. His assist numbers are up to almost 5 per game though, and that is a testament to how good of a passer he is when he chooses to be.
Edge: Rockets
Power Forward
Scola/Landry/Hayes vs. Aldridge/Frye - In games one through three of this series I put the edge to the Trailblazers in this category. I was doing that completely on the basis of LaMarcus Aldridge and not looking at the whole picture because typically, I do these previews on a starter vs. starter basis. Luis Scola along is averaging 16.8 and 7.5 while Aldridge is at 16.5 and 8.3. When you throw in Landry's contributions and Hayes' defense, this leans towards the Rockets a bit. Scola has come alive in the playoffs, and I hope it's that way for the rest of his career. Opposing teams fans may hate him, but he is everything that is right about basketball.
Edge: Even
Center
Yao/Hayes vs. Przybilla/Oden - This has been a fantastic series because of all the little things that have gone on. I think the two biggest outcomes will be (regardless of the series winner) that 1. Portland will be playoff tested next season for sure, I certainly would want nothing to do with them and 2. Yao Ming had a chance to really work on the fronting/double team defense and Rick Adelman finally worked out an offensive tweak that allows the Rockets to take advantage of it.
Edge: Rockets
My Prediction: Rockets make it tough, Blazers take a 9 point lead in the third and the Rockets fight back. It will end with a close score and the Rockets will have a chance to win it. I think the Blazers should win the game, will they though?
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Will officiating be different tonight?
Nate made a public statement about the officiating in games 3 and 4. The stats back up his argument when you look at the number of fouls called on each team. Pretty huge disparity favoring the Rockets. How can Battier/Artest have basically no fouls when guarding Brandon Roy? Seriously? How can Yao have 1 foul in 44 minutes when the Blazer big men pick up a foul for touching him?
As Blazer fans, we understand that Yao is getting roughed up, but so is Portland on the other end, we just want it called both ways.
Disparity means little without context.
Houston, despite whatever preconceived notions many PDX fans have about the team, is one of the lowest fouling teams in the league. That’s just a fact. Portland isn’t, particularly with the high-risk, high-foul strategy adopted by Portland using Oden and Przybilla. Don’t want fouls? Go back to your game 1 strategy for Yao. It worked brilliantly, for us.
In context, taking out the foul nexus that surrounds Yao, it’s generally PORTLAND that’s getting more calls.
I’m very tired of this particular line of argument.
Oh, I've said it before, I'll say it again.
I have NO fear of all-seeing reffing. If it could happen, it would benefit Yao, not Portland.
Not until aldridge realizes the athletism and body that he has and oden + pryzbella does more in the post, your team will have a foul disparity against any team. Lucky you guys aren’t playing Utah otherwise your entire front court will foul out before 3 quarters
I don't remember us ever being in foul trouble against Utah
But that wasn’t in the playoffs. Not saying anything else.
yeah,
Yao has to get more than 6 fouls to truly be in “foul trouble”…
unless you and I have completely different definitions for “foul trouble” (??)
Oden is STUPID
Face it. He makes the dumbest moves and gets completely retarded fouls that Yao only picked up once this entire series, when he ran out on Roy and pushed him out of bounds. The big man waits, he doesn’t initiate.
Oden thinks he is allowed to jump over our small guys as long as he touches the ball. Maybe you guys haven’t watched the game in 20 years, but that is called a foul.
Also, Yao doesn’t play D on your big men, he jus stands there and they have absolutely ZERO moves. They get scared of Yao, not sure why, and pass it back to Aldridge who is also afraid of Yao, still not sure why.
So you end up shooting, granted Aldridge is really fucking good at it, but he could drive into Yao drawing a foul if he wanted to.
But feel free to bitch and moan about it. I guess you wouldn’t mind if Artest went out to body check Roy every time he ran down the floor the way Pryz and Oden do before Yao even touches the paint. If that was all good, I wouldn’t complain at all. Roy would be so beat up he wouldn’t get off 12 shots.
so much for excuses
The Blazers in “5” was some fantasy.
If anything, please analyze the game properly and fairly, such as good d by Artest and Battier, rather than resorting in blaming the refs.
Great analysis
Realistically this game will either come down to the wire again, or it will be a blowout by Portland. I’m thinking possibly an epic fail like last year when the Utah Jazz didn’t get out of the 60’s for point total in game 5, but, we won’t lose by more than 10.
Houston, if they’re smart, will come out firing on all cylinders tonight and try to wrap this series up without taking it to a game 6. Portland’s response will be the key for them: will they continue to show resiliency like they have all season or will the pressure finally be too much and cause them to blow the game?
I hope I am wrong: Portland 101-93
If all goes as planned: Houston 98-95
Game 1 Repeat: Houston 105-90
Rockets show complacency: Portland 110-92
Oh, and I almost forgot to add
Teams leading 3-1 in the first round are 0-6 in game 5’s played at the opposition’s arena. We have two of those games tonight: Houston at Portland, and Dallas at San Antonio. Time to buck the trend? I HOPE SO.
That's not a good stat for game 6.
It is going to be tough to watch.
That’s my bet.
What could save us is Portland mentally collapsing after tough losses. I don’t see that.
Here is the ref lineup for tonight:
Houston @ Portland — Dan Crawford, Bill Spooner, Leon Wood
I don't think the officiating is that bad...
With the Blazers having to foul down the stretch in the past two games and with the Rockets being one of the best teams in the league at keeping the fouls to a minimum, I think it makes sense that the disparity of fouls is where it is.
PLUS when you have Oden, there’s a few more fouls added to the blazers. And it’s not like this is the only time Oden has gotten in foul trouble while playing limited minutes. That’s what he’s done all season!!
That’s why there’s such a disparity!
I'm ok with Oden/Pryz getting the fouls
But what I’m saying is someone like Roy is not getting calls on the other end. How is it humanly possible for Artest and Battier to have like 2 combined fouls between them in games 3 and 4 when they are guarding Roy? Its not like Roy is just sitting out there shooting jumpers.
roy isnt getting calls?
didn’t he just go 13-13 the other game?
Clearly he doesn't mean those calls
Those calls don’t count though. Didn’t you get the memo.
Clearly he refuses to see Roy uses picks to get Battier/Artest off him so someone else commits the foul on the drive.
agreed
if I remember correctly, Scola and Landry have been picking up those fouls when roy inevitably gets past battier/artest/anyone
besides roy
no one else on the blazers has played in any way that requires the rockets to commit repetitive fouls. i mean who else on the blazers in this series deserves to be going to the line more than twice a game?
we leave them out
those that are out for the season are no longer listed…
for all intents and purposes they are dead and they aren’t walking through that door.
well
close call, he had actually contributed in this series so far.
and he’s not assholish like T-Mac.
raef?
bayless leaves over my dead body
by thomasikehara on Apr 28, 2009 6:16 PM CDT up reply actions
As a Blazer fan...
I appreciate your preview. Brandon is one of the best in the league and I can say, along with other Blazer fans, that we expect him to be an MVP someday in the near future. Normally I would disagree about your calling the Scola/Aldridge match up even and giving the edge to Aldridge, but for some reason LA isn’t his normal self and Scola is red hot during this series. But I do think the Blazers have been right there in every game (besides the 1st where Houston couldn’t miss) and as a team who has never been in the playoffs, I think they are doing well. There isn’t a better team to get playoff experience from than Houston with their good defenders. I’m going to the game tonight (and bringing along earplugs) and I am 85% sure that the Blazers will pull this one off. I can’t for sure say they’ll win this series being down 1-3, but if any team can do it, the Blazers can as I have seen them come back from being 10, 15, 20+ points down in games a lot. Whoever wins this series will have to face the Lakers and people are hoping for a Kobe-Lebron show down and I’m sure they will get it….. big ratings=big money.
Not just Scola/Aldridge
Noone ever compared Scola to Aldridge. That is obviously Aldridge.
The comparison was Scola plus Landry plus Hayes to Aldridge. The compbined 3 of them are equivalent to one Aldridge.
Also, Scola is not “red hot”. He has played this way all year. Now if you are saying “red hot” as in a latin sex machine, we might be going somewhere.
No, that's not what I mean by 'red hot'
He’s not that kind of ‘red hot’, it’s just that he can’t seem to miss. The only people who have stepped up for the Blazers has been Brandon and Rudy. Everyone else has sunk into mediocrity. I don’t know what that last shot by Travis Outlaw was with 8 seconds left in game 4. It’s like he thought he had only 1 second left. I don’t mind him shooting the ball because he can make that clutch shot, but don’t take a fade away 3 pointer with Shane Battier in your face! He didn’t even set the shot up. I still like him though, he usually comes through in those situations.
besides game 2, scola is clearly equals to aldridge. We are fortunate that aldridge doesn’t know about his own athletism.
equal stats
If you do “per 48” stats, I bet you would be surprised how close Scola and Aldridge are to each other. Most of the season, Scola was the 3rd or 4th option on offense, while Aldridge was 2nd for Portland. And yet Scola is still very, very close statistically to LMA.
Scola is also way older than LMA and peaking right now.
Aldridge will hit his peak in another 4 years.
Batum
Is useless against you guys. He’s meant to guard the biggest offensive threat on the other team (ie Kobe, Melo, Tmac if he were playing) and shut them down while bringing timely offense on the other end, but your team doesn’t have anyone he could guard that fits that mold. We could put him on Ron, but we want him to shoot, so that’s pointless. His best use in this series would be to come off the bench and guard Wafer, but that hasn’t happened so far.
As for the fouls...
We except Oden to foul out or get 5 every game. That isn’t a surprise. Especially against a good player like Yao, that was inevitable.
I think our biggest complaints are that Yao ISN’T getting called, particularly for 3 in the paint. There have been lots of times where he will just stand there and no one will think to call it. He also plays ALMOST as aggressive as Oden/Przy and has reached in ALMOST as many times. No, he legitimately hasn’t fouled as much as either of them, but rocking 2 fouls at the end of the game is just not right. He commits more than that.
Another is Artest who has been beating on Roy like a schoolyard bully. He is particularly prone to jersey pull, which simply isn’t being called. I know he is a physical guy and all, but it has gotten ridiculous. It’s really frustrating sometimes. Yes, Roy is getting calls, but not in that area.
Finally, a more minor one is how few fouls Scola is getting called on, which says a lot since he is getting called on a lot. Scola really likes to be push people around and flops as often as Przy does.
In the end, while reffing isn’t the only factor in how Portland is losing, I think it isn’t a non-issue. It IS part of the game though, and while I obviously think Portland is a better team than Houston (I AM a Portland fan), one area where Houston is undeniably better is coming back from bad calls. I guess that is the one thing where the Blazers show how young they are. Bad calls depress the blazers to the point where they play differently, and worse for that matter. You guys are good at just rolling with the bad calls you get and continuing to play well. We just crumble.
"I think our biggest complaints are that Yao ISN’T getting called"
you mean on fouls ON him right?
If the refs called him correctly
he would also be going to the line 8 to 10 times a game. What else is new?
What I meant
was that our biggest complaints on Yao are that he gets fouled way more than what the PDX get called for.
Seriously I don’t know why people are complaining as if Yao gets preferential treatment. Trust me, if refs called contact on Yao properly, Yao would get the better of it, not worse.
Look at Xiane and Texasag’s posts above. Yao plays BEHIND oden and pryz and the reason he doesn’t get defensive fouls is because they have no post game. Yao gets his fouls on help defense…and over the years he’s learned how to get better at not getting called (jumping straight up, hands up, etc.).
Look at how Hayes defends Oden. One hand and forearm, takes contact in the chest. Look at how Pryz and Oden defend Yao. TWO HANDS on him ALL THE TIME before he even gets the ball! Pushing and shoving, grabbing arms when he tries to get post position. Do you see Yao doing this on defense?
So let me ask: exactly how has Yao fouled on post defense? Reaching in has not been called much in this series, Yao gets hacked on the arm every time he puts the ball on the floor, no call…
If you want them to get less fouls, play behind Yao….like Game 1.
Artest and Scola…well…you’d have more of a case on them than Yao.
Yao's Arms
Just noticed on HD last night, but anyone else see Yao’s arms towards the end of the game.
It looks like Oden and Pryz are scratching him up like 12 year old girls. You would think having definite proof of the fouls like that might mean something.
You've got one
And we said it was a bad call at the time. That said, it WAS a foul, you are not allowed to put both hands on a player without the ball, he does. That’s the rule. I’m going to bet they told him that about 50 times before they called it
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