Daryl Morey might be kinda sorta disappointed by the current roster. Maybe.
by grungedave on Jul 29, 2009 3:20 PM CDT
in Random Commentary
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PrintFeigen got a quick interview with Daryl Morey recently...
Among the choice quotes:
"I think we're going to have a tall task ahead of us to be a playoff team. I think that is the goal for us. The history of teams with no all stars making playoffs is pretty limited."
.....
[about potential trades for 2009/10] "It's more we're in patient mode," Morey said. "We're trying to add players through trades primarily who help us win now and in the future. It does put a higher bar on the moves. They are a little more rare. We're not trying to move any contracts. Now that we have a pretty good sense Yao will be back next year, definitely the plan is to put a team around Yao for next year, and be as competitive as we can this year."
This isn't surprising. We've been trying to lower the expectations a bit here, too. I'll go on record as saying I think the current roster wins maybe 35 games next year. They will compete and play hard and we'll cheer like hell for the good guys, but they will be the lesser talented team most every night. And one simple trade for an expiring contract or seven really isn't going to change our immediate future. It will only kill our long-term prospects.
That said......
"History would say other moves are coming," Morey said. "It is less likely this is (the) roster.
"If we could add all-star-caliber player, that would be a home run. Teams don't give them away. To outperform expectations, we need one of our players to play at an All-Star level or Mac to come back and play at that level, or a trade."
I think Scola could be a borderline All-Star kinda player, but he's not a franchise player. I do not think Morey believes for a second that McGrady will come back and be a top 5 NBA player. At least not next year. Nor do I think there is a Ron Artest out there to be had like last year.
Morey isn't dumb. (Obviously.) If it takes one down non-playoff year to lead the Rockets to the promised land 2-3 years from now... that's a calculated risk he will take every day of the week. Besides, it might make us appreciate Yao Ming even more when the team returns to its Steve Francis/Cuttino Mobley era results next year. When 37 wins was somehow an "accomplishment". Ugh.
As we always say - In Daryl Morey we trust.
Too bad Feigen couldn't get more out of him in this interview, but I do think Morey's spending most of his time plotting ways to kill Simmons for continually calling him "Dork Elvis" (a nickname that really isn't even that funny as Morey was maybe five years old when Elvis had his last peanut butter and banana sandwich).
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hornets trade
it didn’t make much sense. a salary dump for now but a binding contract.
i can live with one season of 37 wins
with yao back year after and acquiring an all star (after we let go of tmac) and couple of back ups..we have monster of a team !!!
Great interview
Feigen brings up a few reasonable questions about the summer of 2010 that I hadn’t thought of before. If we were to pick up all our teams options and Yao picks up his player option, we’d be at a cap figure at roughly $45-$46m. I would imagine we may decline Chuck’s $2m option, as 1) he’s getting quite expensive for what he is 2) I hope Dorsey would be able to replace his role on the roster.
So, now, we’re left with a roster of Ariza, Yao, Brooks, Lowry, Dorsey, White, Landry, Battier, and Andersen plus any of the 2nd-round picks that we keep this year. Given that the NBA revenue should decline the next two years, projected cap for 2010-11 looks to be down to somewhere in the $50-$53m range and the luxury tax will be around $69.
So what does that mean?
Basically, we won’t be enough under the cap to sign any of the marquee free agents, unless we can shed some more salary and/or have some help via a sign-and-trade. I’m not 100% sure how sign-and-trades work, so I won’t comment definitively on that, but my understanding of the rules would allow us to take back as much salary as we wanted without having to send salary back to the trading partner. So, we could trade a 1st round pick for Joe Johnson for instance? We would still hope to re-sign Scola as well, so if we were take back $10-$15m back in salary plus re-up Scola we’d probably be over the luxury tax.
I know it’s early, but I had always assumed we would be able to easily add a max free agent next summer. The decline of the cap will make that endeavor quite difficult and we might have to settle for players willing to accept something in the $8-$10m range. Luckily for us, every team will be in the same position of having their project cap space decline significantly, so free agent contracts should be significantly depressed next year for second tier free agents. On the other hand, however, our cap situation has basically made it all but impossible to add a top-tier star, like Lebron or Wade, unless we have some serious help from a trading partner.
There is a scary part to that
Anything we do will have to be before we resign our own players. That will give Scola extra time to look around. He’s a loyal guy, but he’s also a pretty cultured guy and may decide he likes somewhere better. That’s in no way to say Houston doesn’t have culture, I say FU to anyone that thinks that. It’s to say that maybe after 3 years Scola will decide to see somewhere new. But let’s just pretend I didn’t think that and Luis, wherever you are, sign that contract!
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It all comes down to McGrady
Oops.
If McGrady comes back and stays in the lineup the Rockets are a Playoff team. Forget about 2005,last yr McGrady on one leg and often totally disinterested in playing still put up 15.6ppg,4.4 rebounds and 5 assists a game.(Artest had 17.1,5.2,3.3 as his replacement.)
Ariza had 8.9,4.3,1.8 and Wafer had 9.7,1.8,1.1.
McGrady/Ariza combined last yr for 24.5ppg,8.7 rebounds and 6.8 assists compared to Ron/Von’s 26.8ppg,7 rebounds and 4.4 assists.
If Andersen can put up 10ppg,then the Rockets need to find @ 12ppg to match last yr. I think between Scola,Brooks,Budinger,Taylor,Ariza being more of a focus and McGrady prob doing a bit better that that shouldn’t be too much of a problem.
I worry more about the overall defense.
None of the teams that missed the Playoffs last yr played any D,so they will continue to struggle against good teams. Other than Phoenix the others have to improve by between 15-20 games. Possible,not likely.
Phoenix has major holes in their roster and Amare is hardly a lock to play 75-80 games. Utah slid badly last yr and where have they improved? NO looks shaky at this point.
I believe the Rockets will be able to hover around .500 for a couple of months or so.
If McGrady comes back about then,can stay in the lineup and focuses on making plays for his teammates,the Rockets should go on a modest run and make the Playoffs.
I agree about McGrady
I agree that it all comes down to TMac. I do not think he will return to anything near his past level but … if he does, the Rockets will roll. Think about it. What would have happened in the 7-game Lakers-Rockets series if a 100% healthy TMac had been available? That team that played the lakers (without Yao) was a very good team. Assume that Ariza > Artest (and Morey must think that Ariza is better). If that is true, then you add a healthy TMac, a more experienced Brooks-Lowry, a little from Dorsey and Anderson … and you beat the Lakers. It all comes down to TMac.
Whether our next season means anything or not is all up to T-Mac. Without him, we don’t have any stars and we don’t have a shot of reaching the playoffs in the West.
it doesn't matter
Without a C or a big man to pass to, T-Mac will be on a contract drive – as in, he’ll shoot all the time and not be a team player. This is why Morey will likely shut him down or trade him by February.
well
if we go by past numbers, he’ll actually cut down on his ball-dominating ways. His USG% in 2008 was at its lowest since he left Toronto. So, evidence would suggest that he’ll be even more of a “team-oriented” player when the pick-and-roll with Yao is eliminated from his arsenal.
Your friendly neighborhood Dream Shake mod.
possible Rockets schedule leaked.
http://www.clutchfans.net/news/1541/full_2009-10_rockets_schedule_leaked/
Other key words
Grungedave,
I can certainly understand your belief McGrady will go for his numbers above all else.
BUT,the Rockets aren’t committed to him and if he comes back gunning and the team suffers,Adelman will park his butt on the bench until McGrady gets the message. The Rockets aren’t going to allow McGrady to mess w/developing the youngsters.
McGrady going for Contract Yr could go two ways. Depends on what he’s looking for. If it’s max dollars above all else,you’re right.(Altho the sad example of Iverson should be instructive. Aging vet w/rep as selfish gunner can’t get an offer…)
If he wants a good contract w/a team that’s a contender he has to show he’s willing to play team ball and set up others.
Adelman controls his minutes.
does it really matter?
The Rockets aren’t going to win the ring next year. They will try to win as many games as possible, but they know their limitations. If they have to let McGrady shoot 30 times a game to sell tix, they are going to encourage that… and then wish him well next July.
it does......
tmac can comeback to be that go to guy at the end of qtr’s/games. he can be that guy to draw double teams to free up for abz, ariza, scola, etc. he can come back to be the all star caliber player we all remember. its all gonna be based upon how he comes into the season, yeah everybody wants to right him off and use him as the scapegoat for all the rockets failures and make him the reason for all our bit**ing and moaning. just let the man come back and have a say in the matter, let him have some kind of playing time before any judgements are made. i can’t wait for tracy to come back and prove everybody wrong. and if he doesnt, its gonna be a sad sight, but ive seen sadder and its not having number 11 suit up next year. that was like a straight shot to the jugular! lets go rox!
"Waiting for the return of the Mac"
does it really matter
If they are not in the running for a championship (which they are not) then I would not mind watching TMac gun it. I would love to see him average 35 points per game even if the Rockets lose 60 next season. At least it is something fun to watch. And then when the Rockets lose 60, maybe they will get lucky in the draft .. . unless Morey has already traded away next years draft for some guy you never heard about. BTW … it sure would be nice if the Rockets could somehow get San Antonio to give us Tiago Splitter like they did with Scola. If the Rockets could get Splitter, they could trade old injury prone Yao.
all the major free agents want a ring
if the rockets can go next season and make it to the playoffs or into the second round
without yao and tmac maby maby not at his best id say that we could make a pretty good case that dwade could get a ring if he came to houston. thats all we really need to do next season.
dwades already said he would be willing to play for something like 9 mil if it was a contender for sure.
also look to see a few of the free agents in the next summer bonanza go to their old teams.
because of the new cap restrictions and how much the max signing is players can make more money on their old team than a new one.
if all the major free agents want a ring
If all those majors free agents want a ring, I can guarantee them one if they will all come to Houston. If Houston could just add Wade, Bosh and James then I can guarantee that they will all get a ring — without Yao. And when Yao returns, they will get another, and another, and another. The trouble is that these guys want MONEY. Sure, if they can get a ring, they want it because a ring means more MONEY. A guy like Lebron James should use his head. Accept the minimum salary. What difference does his salary make when he earns a gillion per year on endorsements. And if he would give up his huge salary to put a championship team together, he wold only get another gillion in endorsements.
luck in draft
Right now, the Rockets need to cross their fingers and hope for luck in the draft next year … unless they have traded that one away already. Do the Rockets have their 1st round draft for next year … when they will be in the lottery? If Morey traded that one away then he isn’t going to look like such a genius.
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