I think Dallas has improved – this won’t be the disaster that Nash/Nowitzki/Jamison/Walker turned out to be.

The Nuggets will be better than the Rockets. I hope you’re kidding on that front.

I think that we’re lottery bound as well.

I usually like Lad’s takes on the Rockets, but I can’t understand the optimism going into a season with a starting lineup of Brooks, Ariza, Battier, Scola and Hayes. That is not a good team. That team can’t score. That team will have a hard time keeping other teams off of the glass. It’s a decent defensive unit, but obviously nobody’s there to protect the rim (unless you count Chuck, Luis and Shane taking charges, which I’m sure will happen plenty).

See, I think the West is a lot worse this season. The only teams that seem to have improved over the course of the offseason are the Spurs (not so much because of the trade but because of Blair and McDyess) and the Blazers (simply developing). Utah doesn’t have any room to make a trade, Phoenix has self-destructed, Dallas is pinning its hopes on a 36 year-old, the Hornets are likely getting rid of Chandler for tax relief, and I don’t think Denver can count on Nene and assorted role-players again. And none of the Western lottery teams seem to be moving into playoff consideration. I think Dwyer’s prediction of the Rockets "looking ugly but winning 45 games" is kind of pessimistic. And, moreover, 45 games might be all you need this year.

The west may be somewhat worse than it was, but there is absolutely no argument that can be made that any team in the west took a bigger step backward than the Rockets. No matter how you cut it, the Rockets essentially traded Yao and Artest for Trevor Ariza. But taking a closer look, 8 teams make the playoffs and the 7 teams not named the Rockets that qualified for the playoffs last year are much better positioned at this time than the Rockets. I think we can both agree that the Lakers, Spurs and Blazers are no brainers. You say Utah doesn’t have room to make a trade, and they will probably lose Millsap, but they’ve retained Boozer and Okur (both of whom are playing for a contract). Last I checked they still employ Deron Williams and they play in a building at home that they can sleep-walk through and win 30 games. Dallas brings back the same team that won 50 games last year. Have added a young athletic center and Shawn Marion. You’ve got to think Josh Howard is healthier this year than he was last year. I don’t see how they’ve pinned their hopes to Kidd though. He may decline some, but to say they haven’t improved is pretty silly. If you really think that the Rockets have a better chance to make the playoffs than the Nuggets, I think you’ve lost your mind, but your reasoning might of not wanting to rely on role-players would leave the Rockets in a world of hurt since the entire roster at the moment is full of nothing but role players. I do agree that the Hornets could be in for a fall if they lose Chandler. Aside from C Paul and David West, their roster is atrocious and they have close to $80 million in guaranteed contracts for next season ($10 million into luxury tax land), and another $66 million for the 2010-2011 season (when they’ll be paying Peja, MoPete and James Posey a combined $28 million). But they’ve still got Chris Paul. And I don’t think the Suns have truly self-destructed. Yea, they lost Shaq, but they get back Amare after he missed a lot of time last year. They’ve still got Steve Nash.

So IMO, there are two playoff spots that might still be up for grabs. The lottery teams have gotten better. And the two that I think could legitimately make a jump are (and don’t laugh) the Clippers and the Thunder. I know the Clippers have been terrible, but they’ve added Blake Griffin and gotten rid of Zach Randolph (clearly addition by subtraction). They’ll run out a starting lineup of Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Al Thornton, Blake Griffin and Chris Kaman. The bench is thin and the coach is a question mark, but they’ve got some talent. And I think the Thunder will be much improved. Durant and Westbrook will be a year older. Maybe they sign a guy like Paul Millsap. The Rockets are probably still a better team, but what if Battier ends up missing some time. Last year’s time was constructed to withstand some injuries, but this year’s team (if everything stands pat) is not going to be able to adjust like it was last year, so maybe the Rockets can sneak into the playoffs, but I think it happens if the West comes WAY down and the 8th seed can get in with fewer than 40 wins.

Really? Again, look at what Morey was claiming in that interview. He was saying that Battier is of the same value as several of the NBA’s superstars. That’s a bold claim, it’s one that even I – a guy who believes in statistical analysis and its value in basketball – have a hard time believing. Saying that Battier is as valuable a player as Carmelo Anthony is crazy on face, and yet Morey (by the indications he has given us) thinks that.

The idea that Battier is as valuable a player as Carmelo isn’t so crazy if you put it into context. On a team that starts Rafer, TMac, Scola and Yao, you’d rather have Battier because of his contributions on defense and because he doesn’t need the ball to be effective. But on a team that starts Brooks, Ariza, Scola and Hayes, I don’t think there’s anyway Battier’s defensive contributions outweigh the A+++ scoring that Carmelo provides. And let’s just focus a little bit more on a starting lineup of Brooks, Ariza, Battier, Scola and Hayes. And with Lowry, Landry and Barry being your first three off the bench, you really think that team is good enough to make the playoffs? And good enough that a prediction of 45 ugly wins is on the pessimistic side? And before you say I haven’t accounted for TMac, I understand that he has some value. Maybe he comes back and contributes something. Maybe Morey moves his contract. But I think the chances of him playing and contributing something are in the 1% range, so let’s say the 610 rumor actually happened. Is a Brooks, JRich, Ariza, Scola, Amare trio going to make the playoffs? Is it worth it to sneak into the playoffs to get drubbed by the Lakers in the first round? Do you think a team with Amare as its best player can win a championship? Let’s say Yao actually comes back and you build around Yao and Amare. Is that a team that can win the championship? I don’t really know the answers to any of those questions, but I know the Rockets can’t win a title next season and would rather they not rush into something this offseason just to sneak into the playoffs.