The Future is Still Bright For The Rockets
by Mike Kerns on Nov 4, 2010 8:46 AM CDT
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PrintSince everyone else is writing Debbie Downer posts of doom and gloom this morning, I figured I'd try to bring out some silver lining with the 2010-2011 Houston Rockets. Believe it or not, there is plenty to still be excited about.
First off, a four game losing streak at the start of the season counts the same as a four game losing streak in the middle of the season. Losing streaks are painful, sure. But it isn't the first time that we've endured a losing streak of four or more and still didn't go on to have a great season. Anyone remember a certain Rockets team back in 2008? Starting the year 6-7 didn't stop them from finishing the year with 55 wins. So, yes, this start isn't quite what we envisioned. But to throw in the towel right now would be ludicrous. There is far too much talent on this team for them to fail miserably in this campaign.
So, unlike the rest of Red Nation who is writing the Rockets eulogy this morning, I'm going to take a look at what is going right and has me still believing in this years team as well as the teams future. It all starts after the jump...
Up until last nights game thread, I thought I was the biggest Jordan Hill fan boy out there. Turns out there are quite a few of them here on The Dream Shake. And after days of bellowing for Rick Adelman to give the youngster a shot, Jordal Hill showed all of us why we are so excited about him.
Before entering last night's game, David West of the Hornets was doing his usual lay up drill against the Rockets interior defense. But with Yao's minute restriction and Luis Scola picking up two quick fouls, Coach A looked past Brad Miller and called #27 into the game to play the five. Almost immediately, Houston's interior defense was better and they were actually getting rebounds. Strange how that works when you have a fast, athletic big man, huh? The Golden State game says hi.
Jordan had a heck of a ballgame. To tell you how good and important he was to the team last night, I was actually wanting him in the game in the final minutes over Yao. I know that sounds silly, but Yao wasn't rebounding and wasn't stopping anyone in the paint. Something I know that will improve as the season endures, I'm just saying that last night I wanted Hill in there. Someone else said it in the game thread and I will recapitulate his thoughts that if Jordan Hill develops a consistent mid range jumper, he is going to have a very good NBA career.
The Rotation
It was well known before this season that with this teams depth, there was going to be some problems with the rotation. Especially when you have a coach who is well known for having very tight and small rotations. All we heard the other day was griping that Jordan Hill didn't play. This morning on local radio I'm hearing the same about Brad Miller not playing. It's going to happen some nights where someone gets very few minutes or none at all. At least until Rick figures out this rotation. Sure, it'd be nice to have a 12 man rotation, but it just doesn't happen. It's too hard to have consistency or chemistry developed with a rotation that large. But once Rick gets the rotation down that he likes and plays the best together, things are very likely to improve. The roster depth is still a very good problem to have. Especially when Houston inevitably gets hit with its annual wave of lingering injuries.
Health/Rust
We all knew that Yao was going to take some time to become his pre-2009 self again. And it'll happen. He has shown the flashes of it a few times now, he just has to get his NBA legs back again. Right now he still looks sluggish and unsure of himself as well as lacking explosion towards the basket. Time is the only thing that will fix that, but I have no doubts that it will consistently improve moving forward. Yao is too hard of a worker for it not to.
Then you have Kyle Lowry, who was the lynch pin in quite a few Rockets offensive sparks last season. Coming off back spasms and a knee bruise (both that required MRI's), he has looked gun shy thus far. He is shying away from contact and not slashing to the basket. Instead, settling for outside jumpers and three pointers that we all know aren't his forte. This will likely improve as Kyle gets healthy. He is still in preseason mode and will pick it up here in the next few games given that he doesn't injure himself again.
Chase Budinger doesn't seem to be showing any ill effects of the ankle sprain that kept him out for six weeks over the offseason and camp. But his shooting touch seems to still be recovering. I believe he is only 2/13 on three point attempts this year and he is far too good of a shooter for that not to improve. He'll get better.
Draft Picks
Everyone likes to bring up the draft considerations that Houston has from the Knicks in potential trades. We still don't know how that is going to play out. The true value of the McGrady trade has yet to be seen. Those picks could be used in acquiring a closer that this team so desperately needs, or they could hang onto them and have some pretty damn good draft picks the next couple of years. Try not to forget about these when determining the full value of the McGrady trade. These will play quite a significant part in Houston's immediate or long-term future.
Overall
We all know that this is far too talented of a team for them to completely bomb this season. Forget about the 0-4 start. The 2006-2007 Dallas Mavericks started the season 0-4 and won 67 games. How you start the season doesn't mean squat over the course of 82 games. Sure, you don't want to start this badly, no one does. But the NBA season is a marathon, not a sprint like the NFL season. There is plenty of time to recover. Step away from the panic button.
The Rockets being 0-4 is as unlikely as the Hornets being 4-0. But it is just as unlikely that either trend will continue.
The Rockets will be fine.
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Yao got 21.5 minutes last night. How can you possibly implement a player rotation that doesn’t get Yao close to 24 minutes? I don’t care when he plays, I just want him to see long stretches on the floor (no 4 minutes and out) and I want him to get 23-24 minutes every night unless it’s a Rockets blowout by the end of the third quarter.
The article says it all....
As the article said, Yao was not being particularly effective on defense or rebounding. Even from the field he ended up with 5-11, after preferring to take jump shots in the high post instead of backing down his player into the low post.
Hill provided a spark off the bench both defensively (3 blocks and 5 defensive boards) as well as offensively (4 offensive boards).
Yeah he’s still working back, but I thought Yao looked pretty good. You can get Hill plenty of minutes and still get 24 out of Yao. I don’t think Yao needs to be on the court at the end of the game (honestly, the way the game changes to focus on pick-and-rolls at that point, I’m not sure he’s even the best option at that point). So closing with Hill, I see, since he’s better guarding pick-and-roll and it’s tough to feed the post in the closing minutes. But you can’t convince me that the minutes for Chuck Hayes wouldn’t be better served in Yao’s hands.
Rockets got a less-than-average night from West and a standard night from Paul. Rockets lost this game primarily because they didn’t close out on Belinelli and Smith at key times. (that and an inability to make perimeter shots)
Hill’s play was certainly a big positive from this one. They need that going forward in a bad way.
While we're on the topic of Defensive Boards...
Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin grabbed 3 a piece.
While Kyle Lowry and Courtney Lee grabbed 0.
I don’t know who all would identify that as a make or break stat.
But it certainly draws a line between the 1st and 2nd string when evaluating an element of defensive activity.
by Nobody is Better Than Jordan on Nov 4, 2010 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Defensive boards for non-rebounding guards are harder to measure because you don’t know under what circumstance they came (long shots, offense not pushing for a board, etc.). I’d say it’s slightly different for Forwards/Centers.
Anyhow, I watched the game and that’s what led me to conclude that he was good defensively, especially on the glass. He had a couple of athletic boards that Yao/Miller probably would have allowed to be converted into offensive possessions. For example, in CP3’s three-pointer late in the game, Jordan Hill would’ve grabbed the board that Yao was unable to.
Not only that...
Hill can also step up from the paint to contest any shot, athletic or not, where Yao would almost appear frozen, totally immobile.
And I agree with the assertion that Hayes doesn’t need to be in there when Yao’s got spare minutes.
Yao’s obviously got more work to do, but can the Rockets afford to wait on Yao improving when they know they can put in Hill to be more effective? I’m thinking that’s been answered with the acquision of Dampier. Although, who knows what Hill’s true status is with trade possibilities still lingering.
by Nobody is Better Than Jordan on Nov 4, 2010 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Yao looked awful in the 4th,
I think we should never play Yao at the end of the games, he has always disappointed me by blowing the key rebounds late game. I want insurance that we WILL get the defensive rebound and our defense was not in vain. And he is usually very winded int he 4th and just gets slow, and gets stripped or charges. Yaos good when hes fresh, not late games.
No... but I have to admit that I'm in the anti-24 camp. The time limit, not the tv show.
Still, as everyone’s saying it’s early. It’s just that we really should be doing MUCH better with this crew, 24 minute limit or not.
by DribbleHooper on Nov 4, 2010 5:06 PM CDT up reply actions
I think the limit needs to go away.
It should be a guideline, not a “drop dead” number. I’d really love to talk to the orthopedists to understand how 24 minutes of pounding on his feet is so much better than his career average of around 30 minutes. I saw that in all seriousness.
"Each in turn... volunteered his suggestions, his invaluable suggestions."
Twitter - xiane1
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The officiating was just silly last night!
The Hornets shot 42 free throws to Houston’s 18, com’on man!
Neither team played more aggressive than the other. Free throws in most games in the NBA are fairly equal, last night was just ridiculous.
Agree with this. The Hornets were getting a foul called at will in the paint. So many of Okafor’s ugly hoick shots would have been the end of possessions if it wasn’t for the fouls being called.
We couldn't get any fouls called for us in the paint.
"Each in turn... volunteered his suggestions, his invaluable suggestions."
Twitter - xiane1
The Dreamshake
Change up the rotation.
Why don’t we play Lee and Brooks together and Lowry and Martin together?
I think the light is flickering on
in Houston with the increased minutes for Hill last night. Lee should be next to have a Renaissance in the eyes of the coach.
I'm always right, this isn't conjecture, merely statement of fact.
What BD34 said
it’s a work in progress and Adelman isn’t JVG. He isn’t so stubborn that he won’t make the changes needed to get better.
But he's fairly stubborn.
Not so convinced he’s infallible as JVG and the guys just need to play harder.
"Each in turn... volunteered his suggestions, his invaluable suggestions."
Twitter - xiane1
The Dreamshake
Courtney Lee was playing well.
Lee should of get more minutes.
Hill should of finished the game.
Battier needs to hit his open shots.
The Rockets need to attack the basket instead of shying away.
Let’s go Rockets you can do this!
by Edwin Rockets-Capron on Nov 4, 2010 11:28 AM CDT reply actions
Houston, we have a problem.
Defensively, we are bad. There’s no denying that but I have a growing concern over the offense. The rockets are taking more short jumpers or 3 point shots and gave up completely on the low post game.
Other problems:
- K. Martin tries to draw the foul but doesn’t get the call – creates turnovers
- Brooks attacks the basket but doesn’t finish.
- Yao does not establish dominance. At times, seems more like a spectator than a starting center.
- Battier….smh. Simply not effective on defense or offense.
Nonetheless, I was very impressed with J. Hill. He is very active on defense. Without him in the game, it could have been worst.
I’m hoping for better game on Sat. Lets go Rockets!!
Lets try this for the next game:
Starters: Lowry, Yao, Hill, Martin, either Battier/Hayes
Bench: Brooks, Miller, Lee, Scola, Hayes/Jeffries/Battier
Give some damn minutes to Patterson!!
by inquisitiveman on Nov 4, 2010 11:42 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
We are juggling lineups for now, so this isnt perm, but we need to try it since
the Scola/Yao combo didnt seem to work last game. We need to see what Lowry can do as starter. Btw, i forgot to mention Bud as the starter…my bad.
by inquisitiveman on Nov 4, 2010 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Why not? Our record can't go into the negative if we try this
I agree – starters should be – Lowry, Yao, Hill, Martin, Bud
Bench – Brooks, Miller, Lee, Scola, Hayes/Patterson/Jeffries….Battier can watch the game and provide insight with his high I.Q. :)
Give some damn minutes to Patterson!!
THIS.
by DribbleHooper on Nov 4, 2010 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions
I think the holdup is that teams are holding us hostage
teams with cap space are trying to get us to throw in a pick or something to take JT. Whereas we just want someone to take him for nothing.
and by "holding us hostage"
we mean “are not idiots willing to take a contract of a guy who probably can’t contribute”
He could contribute
on some bad teams.
We don’t really know what he can do. He hasn’t really been able to get consistent minutes.
Look at Chicago's SG situation.
Are you telling me an instant offense guy couldn’t help there?
"Each in turn... volunteered his suggestions, his invaluable suggestions."
Twitter - xiane1
The Dreamshake
u mean another black hole?
I saw Wafer in a game yesterday, jacked up shots whenever u touched the ball, didn’t matter if t here was 1 guy 2 guy 3 guy around him, once he catches the ball he just jacked it up. Awesome team player eh?
by AK1111 on Nov 4, 2010 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think you're not judging Taylor fairly.
He’s a young player desperate to stand out with very limited minutes. That leads to some foolish choices. When actually given starter minutes he performed much more normally.
"Each in turn... volunteered his suggestions, his invaluable suggestions."
Twitter - xiane1
The Dreamshake
Better than Von Wafer? Indubitably.
He can actually spell “pass” and knows what the word means.
"Each in turn... volunteered his suggestions, his invaluable suggestions."
Twitter - xiane1
The Dreamshake
One more game to go
It’s likely will get to 0-5 before our first win with our next game being against the Spurs in SA
But it’s ok, although I’ve realized (and it hurts say this) that the Rockets are not better than the first 4 teams we’ve faced this season NOW, I know once the good guys get going, we’ll be just if not better than we thought they would be
Go Rockets!
Can the Minnesota game get here already?
by Carlos_HoustonSportsFanatic on Nov 4, 2010 12:17 PM CDT reply actions
i don't even know if we can beat minnesota,
we just look awful in the 2nd half still. K Mart goes from a monster scorer, to a useless. Dunno how a guy t hat can score 15 pnt a quarter in the first half, will just drop off and have trouble scoring as much as Ish Smith in the 4th quarter.
Kerns you are the voice of reason for both our ailing teams right now.
Between the Texans coaches being stupid and our slow Rockets start I am going to stop watching my favorite teams. I didn’t even mention the Longhorns worst team since 97.
It is rather funny
how I am so high on the Rockets yet so down on the Texans. When the fact remains that they both have a lot of the same problems…
I'm the same way
I guess its because the secondary won’t improve all that much and its past the trade deadline while the rockets will shake things up if needed
by Rocket94 on Nov 4, 2010 8:17 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
true that.
Eugene Wilson isn’t starting for the Rockets so there is the silver lining already.
by Rocket94 on Nov 5, 2010 1:52 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
The Texan ownership is too corporate, basically.
And they haven’t been sufficiently punished by the fans for failing.
"Each in turn... volunteered his suggestions, his invaluable suggestions."
Twitter - xiane1
The Dreamshake
Already done that.
23 straight would be nice, though.
by DribbleHooper on Nov 4, 2010 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Would it be out of line to call a 1-game streak a skidmark?
by DribbleHooper on Nov 4, 2010 5:07 PM CDT up reply actions
A winning scratch?
"Each in turn... volunteered his suggestions, his invaluable suggestions."
Twitter - xiane1
The Dreamshake
Agreed
Rockets will be fine once the rotation settles in. All of the losses have been close and a couple plays here and there and we could easily be 3–1 or 2–2
this team can easily get hot and go on multiple win streaks throughout the season. As long as we remain healthy, we will be there in the end when it counts.
by jtdiddy on Nov 4, 2010 3:23 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
really need players to step up as well,
last nite I woulda taken Ariza back for his defense, then the “overall” package Lee was suppose to bring. I’m sorry Lee hasn’t shown shit the past few games, made a shot here and there a runner here and there. But he still missed a lot of shots, hasn’t locked down anybody. Chase will get back to his old form, but his shooting is also unacceptable as of now. Missing wide open 3s as a shooter is a no-no in this league. But gotta love his cuts to the basket, and finish. BUT MAKE UR GODDAMN OPEN 3s.
I wouldn’t take Ariza over anything, especially if we expect him to contribute on both offense and defense. Ariza is a good on-ball defender and he hustles but that’s about it. Lee has played like 10 minutes a game. It’s hard to gauge how good he is from such limited minutes.
i'm assuming hes playing limited minutes,
cuz he doesn’t know the offensive, and is sucking ass for RA standards.
Not knowing the offense is a part of it, but I think you’re painting him to be playing a lot worse than he is. He can knock down an open shot which, for example, Ariza could not do (and still couldn’t do as of yesterday).
Our defense as a whole has been tragic. You can’t measure a player’s defensive production singularly since defense is a team aspect.
I really really annoyed when Ariza made a close in shot (not off the break).
That never happened for us.
"Each in turn... volunteered his suggestions, his invaluable suggestions."
Twitter - xiane1
The Dreamshake
what ive noticed is
Battier missing a lot of open threes the last 4 games
Its so damn hot... milk was a bad choice
He was never a great 3 pnt shooter.
Just acceptable.
this is true as far as it goes...
but Battier has the best career 3-point percentage on the team!
Battier 38.5%
Martin 38.0%
Brooks 38.0%
Lee 36.7%
Budinger 35.7%
Lowry 26.5%
I certainly agree that Battier is not an elite shooter, but he as been a quality 3-point shooter in the NBA
deceiving numbers,
Martin has to take more contested 3s since hes one of the primary scoring options, Lee is only in his 3rd season or so and was playing for the SHITTIE nets, they prolli had 0 offensive rhythm. Budinger is in his 2nd year and we still don’t’ have enough samples, and he still h as time to improve. Lowry is well u know, not a shooter. I can’t make an excuse for Brooks, jacking up quick 3s and missing them leading to fast break away pnts for the other team is unacceptable. And back to shane, hes always the beneficiary of t he double team on Yao or Tmac and had open shots. But i guess getting 40%+ shooting 3s wide open is too much to ask for tho..
believe me, I’d rather see Brooks or Martin taking a key 3. And before things are said and done, I would like to believe that I will say the same thing about Lee and Budinger, but I haven’t seen enough to be fully confident about that.
But if Battier plays solid D, makes 36-40% on open 3s, and displays some offense inside when opponents try to cross-match and put a smaller player on him, he’s quite valuable to this team. He’s not doing the shooting part of that well enough right now.
either way no matter how much he struggles,
like derrik fisher I will keep him on my team and even if he has limited minutes. You cannot trade or cut the leader of the team. He led us again the lakers int eh playoffs a few years ago where we went to 7 games. He is a brilliant guy, and u need someone like that to help the rest of the team. I mean come on its the nba, we don’t have the brightest ppl out there, need a smart guy to explain to them what the coaches want. Thats Shane.
My take on all of this
Hayes has no business on the court unless there is an injury or a low post player is going off on us. Hill, Patterson, and even Jeffries should be on the floor before him. This is no knock on Chuck because I defend the hell out of him at the barber shop so i am by no means a hater. He is just a specialist, not a rotation player. When he quits seeing extended minutes we will extend a winning streak.
GO ROCKETS, GO TEXANS, GO ASTROS (EVEN THOUGH THEY SUCK)!!!
Good article.
I have been high on Hill since day one. Agree with you on most other points. I just want to know what the heck is going on in our locker room during halftime. We need to change our third quarter strategy.
J
Hey Les! We the people of H-Town want our logo and uniforms back!!!
Sixers and Bobcats lose again
I’ll be surprised if Both Gerald Wallace and Andre Iguodala are not traded by trade deadline. We should have a good chance to get an upgrade for Battier (who is obviously regressing) who can both score and defend.
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