Tremendous analysis on Rockets' financial outlook
Brief summary: Scola, Lowry, and their agents won't be exactly be pleased with what the Rockets will offer them. Think Carl Landry.
It's going to be hard to get Hayes back. Hoping he re-signs at the vet-min.
Alexander is going to paying a shitload of luxury tax next year. You can't call him cheap owner at least for next year.
A sign-and-trade for Bosh/Amare (or any other big FA), while possible, will be complicated and will probably require a 3rd team involved.
Comments
I like the restricted free agency in principle,
but not in practice.
The whole idea is that the home team can bring back their young players as long as they are willing to pay the highest bid from another team (a second price auction! Look, ma, I’m using economics!). In practice, the highest bid from another team is often muted (Landry) or non-existent (Robinson and Lee) since teams don’t want to tie up their cap space just to see the home team match it. Unless they go the Portland/Millsap route and try to screw the home team, which I think everyone should try to do to the Jazz.
So the result is you get statements like Morey’s designed to scare off potential suitors, and agents getting frustrated because they know it’s costing their client a couple mil. The whole idea of giving the home team an advantage is to build relationships, but the process of doing so seems to break them down.
Remember how pissed Landry was that we played up his bad knees during his free agency? I wonder what his private opinion of the Rockets’s management is now that he doesn’t have to play for them.
This should be required reading before posting trades or free agency related things.
by seanbergmanrules on Feb 23, 2010 1:30 PM CST reply actions
one thing to consider
The article suggests that Scola and Lowry will get “significant” raises next year……
but from who??
Teams with cap room are going to use all of it to sign the LeBrons, DWades and Boshs of the world (not to mention the Shaqs, the Amares and the Joe Johnsons). Plus, with Camby, Boozer and a lot of other players out there to gobble up potentially available MLE money, who is going to have anything to truly offer Scola or Lowry?
Also consider: a healthy portion of NBA owners/teams are flat broke. Some teams with cap room simply won’t use it because they don’t have the ability to handle a $53M payroll. Luxury tax notwithstanding.
I still think we get Luis for a $10M/2 year deal and Lowry for a $5M/2 year deal. Because there is no reason to bid against ourselves.
You don’t think that when one of the max teams doesn’t convince Lebron to go there for $16 mil, they don’t split up that 16 and give Scola 10 and Lowry 5? That’s what I’m worried about: teams won’t want to save their max space for another year, so they overpay for the middling guys that ARE available.
Agreed. Looking around at all the contracts teams are struggling to get rid of, it is clear that NBA GMs have no problem giving out dumb contracts for mediocre players. The questions is whether the looming new CBA will convince them not to overpay for middle of the road talent (not saying thats what Scola and Lowry are).
by seanbergmanrules on Feb 23, 2010 4:45 PM CST up reply actions
simple
For the same reason last year that we wanted Morey to sign Artest to a 4 year $40M deal… we thought he’d be able to get that kind of money. He wasn’t… and he had to settle for the MLE from the Lakers. And Artest has more value than Scola.
I think that part of the reason Artest wasn’t able to get that much was because the market was depressed last year in anticipation of this summer. Now, it might be equally tight this year because of the looming CBA negotiations, but I still think that there will be more bidders around this year than last. And it only takes one bidder to push Scola’s salary to something unreasonable.
thought
there are teams out there who won’t make it to the finals or as far they expected.
these teams don’t mind paying luxury tax as long as they make to 2nd round playoffs
Spurs Magic Cleveland Lakers Miami Knicks won’t mind a scola for 10M/2yrs…
as long as they have a deep bench…Esp with Lowry, he is backup PG who brings energy and can draw fouls, maybe even knock down open 3’s as long he doesn’t pull a “ariza” every time he’s on the perimeter.
chances are we might lose one of the two if we don’t match a decent offer..
We'll see how bad Alexander wants to win
Will he pay the luxury tax to get a Chris Bosh? We’ll see
Why think small,let's go full Knick fannage.
Battier,Jeffries,Taylor,the 2010 drafted player,the lower of the 2012 Firsts for Bosh.
Martin,Andersen,the Knicks option pick for 2011 for Joe Johnson.
Yao,Hayes
Bosh,Hill
Ariza,Budinger
Johnson,Temple(Bud/Taylor type deal)
Brooks,Lowry($4mil)
Plus 4 of some combo vet mins,rookie from bought Second
@ $75.5mil in salaries.
Not sure I like this lineup better than the one we have now.
Well, maybe a little, but not enough to give up 3 draft picks.
I have to disagree with Dave
Let’s look at the list of [potential] max or near-max contract players:
Joe Johnson, Lebron James, Rudy Gay, Dwyane Wade, David Lee, Amare Stoudemire, Chris Bosh, Carlos Boozer.
That’s 7 players. SEVEN. From what i understand, there are 8 teams that are very much in the market for a max-contract, and 2 that can potentially afford 2 max contracts. The implication is that, considering that some will probably stay at home (ie Lebron, barring some playoff meltdown comparable to last year), there are not enough big names to go around. As a result, I think players like Lowry and Scola become very valuable to a lot of teams looking to upgrade either in general or as a complementary piece to the one star they do acquire in free agency – both are starter-quality players in the NBA, have been proven to be solid in the playoffs, and have little to no injury history. Getting these 2 guys, along with a max contract, to surround the pieces some of these teams already have, becomes a great move for any team with the money to spend.
Essentially, a team not gunning for Bosh (and alternatively a swingman or 2 guard) could really use a guy like Scola (effective rebounder ,flurry of post moves, decent defensive player); similarly, a team looking for a big like Boozer or Bosh that is weak at the point (and doesn’t want to wait for 2011) could really get a lot out of Kyle Lowry (great passer, can bail you out of a bad set with drawing fouls, can hit open shots, strong on the defensive end).
Wafer . . . again. (Marv Albert, HOU v. CLE Feb 2009)
-one of the FEW at Toyota Center who has the Wafer jersey
hmmm....
so this is the post that brought upon us such menacing rules from up above??
by fullo91 on Feb 24, 2010 4:56 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Perhaps.
But listen, you’re perfectly free to pay me a royalty on anything I write. Well, let’s call it an honorarium. Start now. Beat the rush.
Significant gravitas shortfall expected in 2010.



















