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Around SBN: Beyond The Boxscore's Week 17 MLB Power Rankings

Game 50 Recap - Rockets 95 - Sixers 102 - "The objects of our affection."

This is a game the Rockets should have won.  

Here's the story in a nutshell - Kyle Lowry lead a bench comeback and 26-4 run against the Sixers.  The Sixers looked like a beaten team, like they had given up.  Lowry twisted his ankle, gutted out two free throws, left the game.  The Sixers chipped away, then got hot in the 4th just as the Rockets were getting sloppy.  Iguodala hit a big three at 1:37 left in 4th to put the 76ers up 6 and basically seal the deal.

This is the sort of loss that annoys me.  Houston had a somewhat typical flat start to the first. Philly shot about 70% on mostly open looks, the Rockets, with all of 2 effective offensive players in, shot about 35%. Philly built a big lead, as we've seen so often.  Then the benches came in and the Rockets got within 4 by the end of the quarter. Here's my beef - play Battier, Ariza and Hayes all at the same time, as starters, but if they're not defending you've GOT to get more offense on the court.  When the Rockets did this, the tide turned, of course it helped that a very hot 76er team stopped moving the ball and getting open looks as they had for most of the first.  The second unit, or higher offense unit at least, seemed to defend just as well.

The second quarter rolled around and the Rockets stepped up their defense, and their offense as well, ending the half up 57-47, lead largely by Lowry and Brooks operating in tandem.  At this point the 76ers appeared to have broken.  It may seem odd to say that, but it certainly appeared that way.  

The third quarter seemed almost desultory, with the 76ers appearing to effectivelyt lose interest in the game.  The Rockets, too, seemed unfocussed, but appeared to be well on their way to winning.  The crowd was subdued, especially for a weekend game, and the lower section looked about half full.  As usual, the upper section was well-attended, but TV viewers can't see that.  

At any rate, it appeared that the 76ers were content to play sloppy basketball, and accept a split of back-to-backs on the road.  Then, with seven minutes left in the 3rd Kyle Lowry turned his ankle on a drive.  The Rockets called a timeout and Kyle, tough guy that he is, walked out and drained 2 FT.  He then headed straight off the court and immediately started hopping, putting no weight on his injured ankle.  Hopefully this is not one of those lingering ankle sprains, and Kyle will rejoin us soon.  

The loss of Lowry changed everything, in my opinion.  The 76ers couldn't contain the tandem of Lowry and Brooks, and Landry, too, feasted off the chaos the two PG created in the Philly D.  With Lowry, and his tough D, out the 76ers started chipping away.  Mainly they did this by turning up the defensive pressure, making it hard for Brooks to move the ball, and with Budinger as the secondary ball-handler.  The loss of Lowry showed very prominently here, as Brooks finally appeared to tire in a game - with 43 minutes played on a back-to-back its understandable.

he Rockets responded to the pressure by turning the ball over on sloppy passes, and missing easy shots.   Suddenly in the 4th the game was tied.  Philly got hot shooting again, the Rockets couldn't get stops, couldn't buy a shot and it was game over with a bad taste lingering with some bad memories.  This was the Rockets game to win and they let it get away, and they let it get away mainly because they were outworked.  This hasn't happened often this season, but it did tonight, and against a team that we simply have to beat.  

Star-divide

Now to the objects of our affection: Andre Iguodala and Sam Dalembert.  Trade talk is at a fever pitch right now, and I think the #1 player everyone wants is Iguodala.  It's easy to see why - he was the difference in the Philly win - he put up 13pts on 3-8 shooting, going 6-6 on FT, and added 10 rebounds, 6 assists and 3 steals.  He's a very effective player, in that his advanced stats show a high value despite a usage rate that is much lower than his similarly rated peers.  That is because he fills the scoresheet every night, with a very high rebound and assist rate to go with efficient scoring.  Is he the guy we need?  If we trade for him, he'd better be, because he's not cheap at $12 million a year for the next five years.  

 

Going by the Wins Added stat, Iguodala is a 7.1 win player - according to this measure he adds 7 extra wins a year over an average player at his spot, good for 26th highest in the NBA.   The highest Rocket is Carl Landry, and he's close, at 6.9 wins.  Think about that - Iguodala a high-minutes/big money player will add as many wins as Carl Landry - that's what you'd be getting for the big trade.  The league's highest player by wins, no surprise, is LeBron James at 20.3, Wade is next at 15.5.  Of guys "in play" the highest on the list this year is Bosh at 13.1 wins,  slightly better than Kobe's current rate of 12.3. (I don't believe Wade is going anywhere this summer, btw.) It's an interesting measure. Although not perfect, I think it offers good perspective on what a guy can do for your record by coming aboard.  

I'd say it puts Iguodala in the category of 2nd tier star.  Is he a guy who will put a Yao-led Houston over the top?  I have to say, I'm not sure he does.  He seems to me to be an ideal "2nd star" on a contending team with a top 10 player.  Yao must be used as a top 10 player to make that work, and history makes me nervous about that happening for several reasons. It may be that Iguodala's the best available player, and 7 wins is nothing to sneeze at, but there's another piece in the deal.

That piece is Sam Dalembert, by all accounts a wonderful guy, who adds about 4 wins, slightly worse than Nazr Mohamed so far this year, and comes in at number 18 amongst centers.  He'd be a great backup to Yao - mobile, defensive minded, able to move to PF in the right situation to present a big front court.  The problem is he's paid well beyond backup money, adding another $12 million in salary, with a year left after this one.  Twelve million here, twelve million there, pretty soon it starts looking like real money...

So in this hypothetical deal, the Rockets (after all its not my money) would be adding $24 million in salary for the next two years to buy about 9 wins (as I think Dalembert's a half-time player at best with Yao back).  These salaries, along with Elton "Lazy" Brand's $15 million are a big reason the 76ers are so interested in a colossal expiring deal like McGrady's.  Evidently Philly wants more than cap relief though, they want talent.  Good for them.

If I'm the Rockets, I'm not sure I do send Philly any talent back for this cap relief.  If they want another year of paying $45 million for the services of Brand, Iguodala, Dalembert and Kapono, I say let them have it.  If they want out of $24 million of that, they know what to do.  

So, is McGrady for Iguodala and Dalembert worth it, assuming its even possible?  Would it be better to try to open the checkbook for Joe Johnson, for example?  It's hard to say, given that he's less of a spring chicken that you might think at 29, and aging SG with big contracts have been somewhat troublesome for us of late. 

Anyhow, I saw the objects of our current trade affection in person, and they both played a typical game.  I like Iguodala very much, but this didn't convince me he's the guy to take us to the promised land.  If he's the best on offer, though, you have to think seriously about getting him, and his $60 million/ 5 year deal.  What do you think?

Poll
If you COULD trade McGrady's expiring deal ($23 million) for Iguodala ($12million/5 years), Dalembert ($12 million/2 years) would you?
Yes, this is the perfect deal.
91 votes
No, too expensive, not enough talent.
85 votes
Yes, it's the best we could hope for.
117 votes
No, I'd rather try our luck this summer.
91 votes
There's still time for McGrady to lead us to the promised land.
44 votes

428 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 15 comments |

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The 4th quarter offense was just ugly.

It was give the ball to Aaron Brooks and hope. I mean that might work if it’s Lebron or Kobe but this was expecting way too much from Brooks.

It’s kind of sad that no one except Lowry can really create opportunities for others on this Rockets team.

by VBG on Feb 7, 2010 2:07 AM CST reply actions  

On the trade part-

Iguodala seemed kind of streaky and Dalembert didn’t seem too much better than Dorsey

by VBG on Feb 7, 2010 2:17 AM CST reply actions  

iggy and dalembert

are not the pieces that put a Yao-led rockets team on title contention level, but are most definitely pieces that help if we’re to keep Brooks – it gives us a starting wing who can handle the ball so that he doesn’t have to worry about whether or not he’s passing enough, while not sacrificing size / defense the way we do when both lowry and brooks are on the floor. it feels like something else is still missing from the equation, but maybe the 2010-2011 NBA will be a place where we could win a ’ship with our current core and those 2 pieces. you never know…

to clarify what i’m saying – i think if we had yao now, this trade doesn’t make us strike fear into the hearts of the lakers, cavs etc, but maybe a year from now this potential lineup could be a lot more dangerous solely because the other contending teams [typically composed of vets] will be that much older.

Wafer . . . again. (Marv Albert, HOU v. CLE Feb 2009)
-one of the FEW at Toyota Center who has the Wafer jersey

by olivarezq1 on Feb 7, 2010 2:32 AM CST reply actions  

I'd only do a T-Mac and Iggy/Dalembert

trade straight up. Rockets should not give up any other talent. Dalembert only has 1 yr left, so he will be good trade bait next season for the Rox. The question is if Iggy will be the guy to take the Rox to the next level? I don’t know. 7 more wins is not all that. He seems inconsistent or maybe i dont watch him enough. I’d still do the trade if it was like i originally said earlier.

by inquisitiveman on Feb 7, 2010 3:01 AM CST reply actions  

On the game...

I can’t get over the fact that NOBODY on the team can make a lob pass into Landry when he’s getting fronted!!!!

It’s the same problem we had last year with Yao, all the other teams have to do is front our best offensive weapon and we’re doomed

Props to the sixers for smelling blood (after lowry’s injury) and sealing the deal

by Carlos_HoustonSportsFanatic on Feb 7, 2010 4:06 AM CST reply actions  

This team—when you don’t expect them to lose, they win BUT when you expect them to win, they lose. I have to chant “developmental year, developmental year” so I won’t be too frustrated.

Management likes Iggy but not at his salary. With the NBA owners planning to implement a hard cap in the next few years, signings today must be very smart. For management, Caron Butler is a better deal over Iggy, about 10M for one more year, that is, if we do decide to make a deal before Feb 18.

by RoxBeliever on Feb 7, 2010 8:56 AM CST reply actions  

One more poll option:

Yes, but not until closer to the deadline to see if we can steal away a lopsided trade from someone.

by Moondebah on Feb 7, 2010 11:21 AM CST reply actions  

I was in the Iggy/Dalembert camp...

…but the emergence of Dorsey changed my mind. I was reluctantly onboard with taking Dalembert as the price of Iggy when he actually had some value to us as a defense/rebound oriented big. But if Dorsey can keep up this level of play, he will be filling the exact same role as Dalembert for a fraction of the cost.

So now I’d say “no” to Dalembert. However, I still think Iggy would be a great piece for us, big contract and all. Instead of McGrady’s contract, though, I would offer something like Battier + Cook + Taylor + draft picks. That opens up the spot on the wing (which we need for Iggy), frees up some payroll next year, and provides Philly with some value in return for Iggy.

by OremLK on Feb 7, 2010 12:44 PM CST reply actions  

i wouldn't mind

seeing Budinger go, seeing as Wafer is going to be up for re-evaluation again this week, and there is always a chance of re-signing him. He basically does what Von did for us last year, but he rebounds a little more frequently. We would see an increase in rebounding this year from Dalembert, which could offset any lack of rebounding Wafer would offer in the absence of Budinger.

point being – losing talent isn’t the end of the world if the talent is replaceable. I can see Philly liking a guy like Budinger: promising, young and cheap. Hell, if we acquired Wafer, we could throw JT in the pot to sweeten the deal because we’d be 2 deep in the SF (battier and ariza) and SG (wafer and iguodala) positions, and could always recall mike harris as an insurance policy.

The idea of a iggy / brooks backcourt to start with, and a lowry / wafer backcourt return, just sounds wonderful.

Wafer . . . again. (Marv Albert, HOU v. CLE Feb 2009)
-one of the FEW at Toyota Center who has the Wafer jersey

by olivarezq1 on Feb 7, 2010 1:31 PM CST reply actions  

I think Budinger is a much more valuable player than Wafer long term.

Budinger already does some things better: rebound, pass, handle the ball, play defense. Yes, Bud’s D isn’t great, but Von’s approaches non-existent. I honestly think the scoring ability isn’t far apart, either. Budinger is also taller, and younger. Not that I don’t like Von, I do, but Chase brings a lot more to the table. Check out Budingers rebound rate, for example.

Significant gravitas shortfall expected in 2010.

by Xiane on Feb 7, 2010 4:58 PM CST up reply actions  

i agree on all counts

but, like I said, Dalembert pretty much erases whatever lack of rebounding that Wafer presents. I also think Wafer was a lot more fearless when going to the basket in a halfcourt set (for better or for worse, although I think the former held more true), versus Budinger who shoots in half court sets, typically coming off a curl screen. The one-on-one defense problem is definitely a lacking issue, but those kind of problems are made up for by our other wing defenders, Yao’s return and Dalembert acting as a shot changer. We were a great defensive team last year with Von, and while he didn’t contribute to that, the return of that chinese guy would definitely make lesser wing defense okay.

Wafer . . . again. (Marv Albert, HOU v. CLE Feb 2009)
-one of the FEW at Toyota Center who has the Wafer jersey

by olivarezq1 on Feb 7, 2010 10:49 PM CST up reply actions  

That slashing scoring is different from Budinger, for sure, and useful.

I’d say, though, that if forced to choose I take Budinger. I’m wondering if Taylor can’t provide that scoring style if asked to – my sense is he can, maybe not as explosively, but he’s also is more powerful around the basket.

Significant gravitas shortfall expected in 2010.

by Xiane on Feb 8, 2010 12:12 AM CST up reply actions  

The Winter of my discontent

Realized last night that I just don’t enjoy watching the Rockets play anymore. I know this is a developement season,and it’s all about the future,but jeez! I f***ing hate what the offense has degenerated to-watch Brooks or Ariza try to make plays 1-on-1 out on the perimeter,and if that isn’t working,dump it in to Landry.This is different from watching McGrady iso on the wing and dumping it in to Yao,how? What happened to the backdoor cuts,the motion,the multiple cutters? What happened to frakkin’ motion? The only motion we see now is everybody run into the lane,set a half-assed pick and then pop out to 3pt line hoping their defender suffers from ADD and leaves them open.

Brooks is not a PG. He’s a SG. If he’s not scoring the offense collapses,meaning he can’t set up others nor create opportunities for his teammates. I could almost talk myself into an Iggy trade simply because he at least can drive and pass. And he can pass w/out bouncing the ball. The Rockets have fallen in love w/the bounce pass,and you cannot bounce pass past a fronting defender.

I’m p****ed that Luis Scola can’t get into a game in crunch time when the Rockets are struggling offensively. PO’d that Luis is not even averaging 15ppg,let alone the 18 I expected or the 20 so many predicted.

What happened to the Trevor Ariza who last yr was superb playing off the ball,routinely getting 2-3 baskets a game off back cuts and 1 or 2 highlight quality put-back dunks off offensive rebounds? I want him,not the player doing a ghastly impersonation of McGrady. I’ve seen Tracy McGrady play,and you Trevor are no Tracy McGrady.

Most of all I want the Rockets I was promised. A team that ran whenever it could,that used a motion offense,that scrapped on D. I expected losses to being out-talented,to not having energy now and then,to just bad breaks. I didn’t expect GroundHog Day where the same mistakes are repeated over and over and over. I didn’t expect the offense to degenerate so far that the Artest chuck-a-thon is looking good by comparison.

Hopefully this is just a bad stretch where I’ve lost my faith a bit and thanks for letting me vent.
Stephen

by Tisbee on Feb 7, 2010 4:07 PM CST reply actions  

It's a bad patch, and a bad mood.

At least I hope it is. It could be that this is all there is with this version of the Rockets.

Hey Yao haters, miss him yet? Do you? I do and have and will continue to do so while Yao finally celebrates a New Year in his homeland.

Significant gravitas shortfall expected in 2010.

by Xiane on Feb 8, 2010 12:10 AM CST up reply actions  

Thaddeus Young

After watching the game the other night, this kid is impressive. Maybe the Rockets should also pursue him.

by inquisitiveman on Feb 9, 2010 12:25 AM CST reply actions  

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