Game 69 Preview: Rockets at Bulls
by ak2themax on Mar 22, 2010 8:00 AM CDT
in Game Previews
31 comments
14 games left. 4.5 games back, and Portland keeps winning. Doesn't look good, but this team isn't throwing in the towel. That's why we love them. That, and Morey.
The Bulls are also fighting for a playoff seed. They're currently 9th in the East (32-37 is good enough for 9th over there? Crazy.). So, they'll be as desperate as the Rockets tonight. They've gone 1-9 in their last 10 games, but they usually make late-season runs to get into the playoffs.
This will be a crazy game. It should be very physical and very fun to watch. Both teams need it, and from desperation springs some fantastic basketball. Here we go.
Matchups:
PG: Aaron Brooks vs. Derrick Rose:
AB is playing better than ever. He's hitting clutch shots and three pointers like they're lay-ups.
Pooh Bear is still better than AB, and he will abuse Aaron when he's driving to the lane. Much like Rondo, the key is to keep him away from the basket and force him to take jumpers.
He's still going to drive at will, though, and he's been solid all year.
Advantage: Bulls
SG: Kevin Martin vs. Kirk Hinrich:
Advantage: Rockets
SF: Trevor Ariza vs. James Johnson:
Advantage: Rockets
PF: Luis Scola vs. Taj Gibson:
Gibson is a rookie out of USC. He's averaging 9/7, but he had 16/14 in the previous meeting this season.
What's happened to Luis? He wasn't a beast against the Knicks. Doesn't matter. He's still better than Gibson, but Taj is quicker.
Update: Chronicle says Luis was ill. Maybe they stated it in the broadcast, but I watched most of the game on mute. If he's still sick, here's hoping he gets better. If he is, Jordan Hill seems capable of picking up the slack.
Advantage: Rockets
C: Chuck Hayes vs. Brad Miller:
Superstar alert! Or at least he's a superstar when he plays the Rockets. He averages 14/8 against the Rockets during his career on better than 50% shooting. Plus, he killed us last time. I don't think he's going to repeat that performance, but I'm probably jinxing that right now. Therefore, he gets the edge.
Advantage: Bulls
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Bench:
Bulls: Jannero Pargo, Acie Law, Flip Murray, Hakim Warrick, Joakim Noah, Chris Richard
Rockets: No Battier or Andersen most likely, coming off a game in New York where they had to work overtime. Hmm, still sounds good to me, but it isn't a big advantage by any means.
Advantage: Rockets
Injuries:
Bulls: Luol Deng (calf), Jerome James (more obesity)
Rockets: Battier (knee), Andersen?
Prediction: Rockets are too tired, and lose by 10. If they win this one, I'll pick them to win every game left. Or should I pick them to keep losing? I hate jinxes...
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heya guys
Just wanted to give you a tidbit on Rose: he’s shooting over 48% eFG on his jumper since mid December, which is crazy good.
Last game he seemingly decided to start shooting the 3 ball, and went 4-6.
Obviously I’m a Bulls homer, but just wanted to give you some perspective on how he’s turned what was a weak mid-range game into perhaps the best in the league for a PG.
Should be a very exciting game, I always enjoy playing the Rockets, you guys have a solid fanbase on and off the ’net.
You're right
His jumper has improved. But I’d still say Nash, CP3, and Deron Williams all have better jumpers as far as point guards are concerned. Obviously, in terms of 3PTers, Brooks is better than Rose, despite how well Rose shot last time.
How many Biletnikoffs does he have? NOT TWO!
Brooks has also performed better since the trade deadline.
This matchup is a lot closer than you might think. Rose is averaging 20.4 on 17.6 attempts, while Brooks is averaging 19.9 on 16.3 attempts. Brooks is more efficient, but Rose rebounds and dishes assists slightly more often.
I’d give Rose the advantage in this particular matchup for sure because Brooks has a harder time stopping bigger, more physical point guards, but over the course of this season I think they’ve been about equal in terms of production.
Yes
That has been one of the toughest things about picking an advantage in a matchup. I try to take recent and season production into consideration, but sometimes it doesn’t work out well at all. I think right now they’re about even in terms of overall ability, but if there were a pickup game and I could only take one of them, I’d take Rose here.
That, and I hate when a player plays center, but guards the power forward on the opposing team. It’s so hard to know what the game plan is. However, I love that the Rockets are versatile enough to have most players able to guard two positions. That will change some next year with Yao. Pretty much he and Scola (hopefully) will have to defend their position. Battier/Ariza will still be able to guard the better wing, with Martin guarding the other. Brooks really can only guard PGs.
Sorry, I took that in a different direction.
How many Biletnikoffs does he have? NOT TWO!
The bulls beating the Rockets without Noah or Deng?
I really doubt it. Their offense has been anemic pretty much all season, which is a huge advantage for our defensively inept team (especially in the absence of Battier). Some points to be made:
1. I don’t think Kevin disappears on offense; rather, I think he is trying to play with his teammates. You can’t disappear on offense and drop 28 in a game like he did against the Knicks. Don’t fault the guy for being a team player.
2. Exhaustion is a non-issue, I think. The team played early yesterday, and semi-gained an hour in sleep by moving back into central time. More importantly, the players that I would be the most concerned about exhaustion-wise are our PGs, Kevin and Scola. Brooks and Lowry played 30 and 22, respectively, which isn’t an over-abundance of minutes. Scola played limited minutes because he was feeling ill, so if he’s feeling okay today I expect a big game out of him; Chicago is really weak up front right now, and is not very good defensively in the post. Couple that with adding Jeffries to the team (who will likely see decent minutes guarding Miller), and Jordan / Chase’s young legs, and I don’t think we’ll see a problem.
3. Your post confuses me – how do the Rockets have all but 2 advantages in 6 categories total and you expect a 10 point beatdown by a team who has lost 90% of their last 10 games and currently sports a losing record?
4. The Bulls made a run last year because of major contributions from Noah; with Toronto playing OK, the Bulls are all but eliminated from the playoff race. I’m sure their horrible front office is probably also encouraging Vinny to ‘give the young guys minutes’ (tank the season) in hopes of another solid draft pick, hoping to combine that with the oodles of money they will have to spend this summer on a quality free agent.
-Scratch some of this- just realized Noah has semi-returned from injury, but the chances of the guy playing out of his mind are slim to none, considering he has just returned, and hasn’t really been able to practice due to the nature of his injury (plantar fasciitis)
I genuinely expect the Rockets to win this game, and probably by a sizable margin. This is a significantly different team from when they met last, and the Rockets are the team coming in winning 5/6 compared to their 9/10. Plus, if my memory doesn’t deceive me, Deng played pretty great in that last meeting, and he’s out for the season.
Wafer . . . again. (Marv Albert, HOU v. CLE Feb 2009)
-one of the FEW at Toyota Center who has the Wafer jersey
by olivarezq1 on Mar 22, 2010 11:02 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
compared to their 9/10
losing record.
Wafer . . . again. (Marv Albert, HOU v. CLE Feb 2009)
-one of the FEW at Toyota Center who has the Wafer jersey
also
portland AND san antonio lost last night.
-portland has dallas( twice), new orleans, okc (twice), denver and the lakers left on their schedule. Their offense has also sucked badly as of late. They have some easy ones, too, and they are playing some bad teams in the stretch run, but don’t count the rockets out in the race [despite their harder schedule].
-san antonio has okc, cleveland, the lakers (twice), us, boston, orlando, phoenix, denver and memphis left on their schedule. that’s ROUGH. They are probably not going to be able to hold it together for all of those games; top that off with them being 7-18 (!!!) against teams with 40+ wins this season, and you could see san antonio missing the playoffs for the first time in a LONG, LONG time.
Houston, in comparison, still has a hard schedule, but only about 4 games where the odds in vegas will be against us (utah, @ phoenix, @ boston, vs. lakers). something to think about
/rant
Wafer . . . again. (Marv Albert, HOU v. CLE Feb 2009)
-one of the FEW at Toyota Center who has the Wafer jersey
I'm not saying they won't make the playoffs
I’m just saying that Portland is playing well right now (until last night’s loss they had won 5 in a row, I believe). I don’t think TD will let the Spurs fall, even without Parker.
Yes, they have a tough schedule, and I certainly will be rooting my ass off for them. It just needs to be said that the Rockets can’t afford to lose because the teams ahead of them aren’t. I hope they prove me wrong. If they win this game, I’m pretty much committed to predicting a win the rest of the way.
How many Biletnikoffs does he have? NOT TWO!
I estimate that we can only afford to lose 3 more games
vs LAL, @ SA and @ Bos for obvious reasons (though the spurs game it’s winnable by a slim margin)
The other games I’m worried about are @ Mem and vs Uta (back2back) and @ Pho but are winnable
If we drop a game against anyone else, then we don’t deserve to get to the playoffs
by Carlos_HoustonSportsFanatic on Mar 22, 2010 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Right
I think they’re young and they are certainly talented. Don’t let the advantages fool you. Yes, Scola is better than Gibson and Ariza is assuredly better than Johnson. Young teams have given the Rockets trouble this season (3OT vs. Minny, OT vs. Milkwakee at home spring to mind).
Also, I don’t buy the “gained one hour from the time zone” thing. Road games are always rough, and the Bulls are closer to the playoffs than the Rockets are. Of course, no one over there wants to play Cleveland (or Orlando for that matter), but haven’t we discussed ad nauseum over here how making the playoffs, even getting bounced early, is still better than missing them entirely. The Bulls will play. Make no mistake.
How many Biletnikoffs does he have? NOT TWO!
Maybe we should play Ariza on Rose, Martin on Johnson, and Brooks on Hinrich.
I know Johnson is a big guy, but i would rather contain Derrick Rose than James Johnson.
Rockets>>>>>>Jazz
Texans>>>>>>>Titans
Super Mario>>>>>>>Vince Young
by Rockets 4 Life on Mar 22, 2010 12:37 PM CDT reply actions
The reason we've had so much trouble with the Bulls...
was Tyrus Thomas. His shot blocking kept us from getting inside. He’s not there anymore, shouldn’t be a problem. If we rebound and guard the 3 point line, should be a win.
Portland and San Antonio DID lose last night
We’ve played 68 games (36-32) and Portland has played 71 games (42-29) and we’re currently 4.5 games behind them for the 8th spot. They don’t play until Thursday, meaning that if we beat the bulls and the thunder we’ll only be 2.5 games behind. That’s A LOT of ground we can make up. So we better not lose lol
by Carlos_HoustonSportsFanatic on Mar 22, 2010 1:06 PM CDT reply actions
You're mistaken
A win counts for .5 games. We would be 3.5 games back with both wins by thursday. Still, that is a good amount of space to gain.
Martin
He was pretty consistent yesterday against NY. His points by quarter are 7,5,9,7. I dunno about disappearing and reappearing, he was just there the whole time. I think because he didnt score in large spurts like Lowry and Brooks, he wasn’t as noticeable. But he got his pretty consistently throughout the game
Is it just me or did they switch announcers on League Pass?
I could have sworn we started with Bill and Matt. And it ain’t them now.
Hey there's a real live gamethread now.
All is well.
Significant gravitas shortfall expected in 2010.
This team is not built to play good defense all game long
but we can keep pace with scoring and have a few defensive stops at the end. That’s how we are trying to win these days
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