Has Shane Battier played his last game as a Houston Rocket?
by grungedave on Mar 28, 2010 11:47 AM CDT
in Discussions about Badasses
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PrintOne week ago, Kyle Lowry bowled his way towards the basket for a layup. In the process of things, and in the scrum for the loose ball after the miss, Lowry rolled right into the legs of Shane Battier... and promptly "sprained" Shane's MCL. Shortly thereafter, the Rockets announced that he was out at least 10 days.
Battier then took to facebook earlier this week after consulting with his doctors. The prognosis quickly changed to "it may take 4 weeks to heal. Bummer." ('Bummer' being Shane's word of choice, but I've been prone to saying exactly the same thing in situations like that.)
Now, the Rockets have exactly 10 games left to play. They stand at 36-36 as of this writing. Putting them 7.5 games out of the 8th spot in the Western Conference playoff race. Now, that doesn't make them mathematically eliminated, but I do not fear a "Dewey defeats Truman"-level comeback here, so I'm gonna go ahead and call the Rockets' chances of making the playoffs a precise 0.0%. The good guys are lottery bound.
Given that Battier joins a walking wounded list of Yao Ming, Jared Jeffries and Kevin Martin... not to mention whatever is ailing Trevor Ariza, Kyle Lowry and Jordan Hill these days... do we really bother putting Shane Battier back into the active rotation this season? Other than making a bunch of fans happy, would it really benefit the Rockets to make Shane suit up again?
(I'm not talking about karaoke, Battier had better suit up for karaoke a couple times this summer!)
There's no need for Shane to prove his worth or his toughness. Everyone knows he is a gamer and a professional in every sense of the word. And he's the only Duke player other than Grant Hill I can tolerate. So there shoudn't be a personal need for Battier to play, either.
Which means Shane is almost certainly "done for the season"... but what about next year?
For the 2010/2011 season, Shane Battier is to cost the Rockets a cool $7.35M. But it will be the last year of his contract... he's a free agent as of July 2011. Moreover, Shane will be 33 years old before the start of the 2011/2012 season. He's not exactly a spring chicken anymore. Given that Shane's career is built on hustle and defense and being in the right place at the right time, the simple process of "losing a step" will massively detract from his on-court value. I hate to say it, but it's true.
The Rockets already have a "Battier clone" of sorts in the form of Trevor Ariza. And Trevor is getting paid a healthy $6.7M next season already. With the Rockets bringing Yao back and having already publiclly stated a desire to re-sign both Luis Scola and Kyle Lowry as restricted free agents this summer...
Is this the year that the Rockets trade Shane Battier?
Both Shane and Jared Jeffries will go into next season with expiring contracts. Shane, however, still holds more value for his on-court ability. Or did we already forget the "No-Stats All Star" column? I am sure Daryl Morey is like 12 steps ahead of me here, but wouldn't this be the best time for the Rockets to sell-high on Battier? Or do they keep him around for one more year to make a Championship run with Yao, ABZ, Speed Racer and Scola? I guess it depends on what the summer trade market offers us. Once the Rockets traded Carl Landry, we all realized that Morey is the anti-Purpura -- he will trade away players he drafted/groomed. Our resident boy genius may not like it, but in the end he'll do what is best for the team. It's all about winning. Which I think we can all appreciate.
All this is just a long-winded way of me asking:
Has Shane Battier already played his last game as a Houston Rocket?
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Especially since we've utterly sucked ass without him.
At least the Cavs without Lebron won one game.
Minnesotan Rockets fan
Battier will only get dealt...
if it’s in a deal for Bosh or Amare. Other than that, he’s staying.
agreed
DM loves him, but if he gets a great deal offfered to him then he will let him go
by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Mar 28, 2010 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=AgFQjpVM1gfwRAvW.roPzre8vLYF?slug=mc-afterthebuzzer032610
“Even in the final hours before the deadline, league sources said the Suns made a push to try to send Stoudemire to the Houston Rockets.” Battier’s been put into a trade for Stoudemire before Phoenix rejected it cuz Daryl didn’t want to put Scola AND a draft pick in.
by HoustonRockets4Eva on Mar 28, 2010 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions
I think you could be right.
I think we’re either going include him in a deal to either move up in the draft or in a sign-and-trade for a star.
If the Rockets make a big trade there is 0 chance Battier is not included
Which sucks because I can count on three fingers the Duke players I like (Battier, Grant Hill, and oddly JJ Reddick)
www.TheDreamShake.com Co-Founder and Writer
Number's crunch does not favor Battier
But who says we don’t move Jared Jeffries either? Granted, Shane’s got a ton more value (particularly to a contending team who has a solid big man and a lethal weapon in the backcourt and only needs a veteran stabilizer—-sounds like Portland right?).
Anyways, I’ll say this. The only way I see Shane or Jeffries going anywhere is if its in a huge sign-and-trade with Toronto for that Chris Bosh fellow. Of course, that’d mean we’d have to send either Luis Scola or Jordan Hill (I can see them asking for/demanding Hill) and the 2012 NY pick. The deal would probably read:
Houston trades: Shane Battier and or Jared Jeffries, Luis Scola, NY 2012 Pick, Chase Budinger/Jermaine Taylor
Toronto trades: Chris Bosh, some crummy piece we banish to Bryan Cook status
Honestly…I truthfully don’t know what to say…good luck Daryl.
B^2
In Daryl Morey, Rick Smith and Ed Wade we (usually) trust.
Jeffries v. Shane
Shane will get traded sooner because he has actual on court value still.
Jeffries’ contract will be a huge asset in February. He’ll probably be on the roster until then.
Luis scola would have to be sign and trade too, there is just not a likely chance he goes anywhere in a deal
If he goes it will be an outright signing that the Rockets don’t match
www.TheDreamShake.com Co-Founder and Writer
Anyways
I am sure Daryl Morey is like 12 steps ahead of me here, but wouldn’t this be the best time for the Rockets to sell-high on Battier?
No, because it’s highly unlikely the Rockets will get back anyone of comparable value in trade, even accounting for the Rockets’ large number of wing players right now.
Beyond that, what, exactly, has changed over the past few months? Battier’s projected value is the same it was in February and the same it will be in July. And yet the Rockets didn’t trade him, nor did they apparently include him in trade discussions back at the trade deadline, when (conceivably) there would have been a great deal of value in taking on a defensive specialist like Battier for the playoff push. By most accounts, it was the Rockets who turned down the Suns offer for Battier and Scola, after all.
And may I ever-so-humbly remind you, Dave, that you said the exact same thing last summer, and look where we are now.
Battier’s a weird player, only a handful of teams (might) value him as highly as the Rockets do, and so I think it’s simply unlikely that he’ll be included in a trade.
Really?
So if a trade for Amare came through, and it was a Luis/Battier/Whatever kinda deal, that would be getting less than comparable value? I’m not saying that it’s a done deal, much less that it’s going to happen, but like was said above, this would be the perfect time to trade him, before losing a step makes him ’Battier’s Expiring Contract’, since that’s not going to be worth a solid wing, a couple of drafts picks, Hill and some other guys.
Like you say up here, Shane’s trade value was the same as in Feb and will be in July, but do you honestly think he’s going to be the same player he has been these last few years at the beginning of the ‘11-’12 season? This is the perfect time to trade him, since apparently RA doesn’t care about defense anyway…heh
I might be wrong, and I don’t read a ton of blogs or anything, but from the 3-4 sources I read at and around the trade deadline, they were pretty much consistant that it was Phoenix that ixnay-ed the deal for Stoudamire(that being the trade involving Battier and Scola). Maybe I just got lucky and read the wrong few, but who knows.
So I just re-read that last comment...
…and it came off a hell of a lot more aggresive than I meant it to.
Pretend I’m wearing a clown suit or something while I typed it, just to make it less severe…
So if a trade for Amare came through, and it was a Luis/Battier/Whatever kinda deal, that would be getting less than comparable value?
Apparently the Rockets felt so.
Look, the Michael Lewis article quoted either Morey or Sam Hinkie as stating that they thought Battier was comparable in value to Carmelo Anthony last season.
Now, that comes with two big caveats: the stats community tends to think of Melo much less highly than typical fans (I tend to agree with that assessment, btw), and Melo improved greatly over that year.
The point of the article was that, yes, the Rockets really did/do think of Battier as comparable in value to most “All-Stars,” despite his “scoring deficiency.”
Now, you can say that value declines as he ages (which is, of course, very true), but the question is “how much?” And, frankly, he’s still a great defender, he still does all the things the Rockets want him to do, and so he’s probably worth very close to what he was last year or the year before that. The dropoff will happen, but it’s not clear when.
As for what really happened at the deadline, we’ll never know, but I suspect that, were the Rockets making a play at Stoudemire, they’d make an offer sooner than a few hours before the deadline.
I sorta agree
Last season, I can totally agree that Shane was as important to us as Melo was to the Nuggets. Battier was pretty much singlehandedly the reason the big names(Kobe, Melo, DWade, etc) shot worse against the Rockets than most of the league.
Either way, I guess it all comes down to trusting Deep Blue Morey to get the most that he can from any deal he does, and so far, he’s done just that.
Would I like to see Shane go? Of course not, he’s pretty much the heart and soul of the team. BUT if it will get us another true all star, then I say move him, and whoever else needs to go to make it happen.
I’m just afraid of not taking a deal when we should, so we get stuck with pennies on the dollar, like what happened with Dream back when we should’ve traded, as opposed to when we did.
actually
What I said last summer was that Shane Battier himself thought he was going to be traded. And he did… he just wasn’t.
In an ideal world, Shane would be cloned.
Reports said Houston nixed the deal for Amare because they weren’t sure Amare wouId stay on beyond the end of his contract this season. think Houston was just testing the waters what value Battier and Scola would have in the league.
I love Shane for us. He’s the heart of whatever defense we have left. His combination of defensive smarts, locker room leadership, and media savvy are unique. He should retire as a Rocket and segue into being a member of our coaching team. RA depends on him for coaching the rookies on defensive positioning.
I say if we really need to trade him to get something out of his contract, wait for Feb 2011. That way, we get a better idea how our defense will hold up with Yao returning and the Rockets version 2010 hopefully up and running without a hitch (and injury). We need him for at least 2/3 season yet.
And the Amare trade wasn't a fair barometer
It was last minute and the Suns refused to allow the Rockets to do a physical first. That just wasn’t going to happen
www.TheDreamShake.com Co-Founder and Writer
shane's still the best in help defense,
something we badly need to cover up for our back court deficiency. So many times you see him covering up, reaching out to contest the 3’s. Trevor may now be the better one on one defender, but battier’s defensive smarts is at par with the best. He knows the spots and calls out the spots. No, i don’t think battier will be traded, or at least be traded lightly.
Trevor?
Really? He might be the better one on one defender right now, but that’s only cause Shane’s not suiting up for games right now.
close call,
but battier has lost a step and a bit slower than last season. Trevor is longer and can give more than hand in the face defense that doesn’t seem enough to intimidate the great pull up jump shooters. I really think the best scenario is trevor takes care of the one on one not necessarily because he’s better at it, but to free battier for the invaluable help d that only he can provide.
If Shane does go...
they need to bring in some player that plays defense and is just annoying to the big time players like Kobe and ’Melo. Raja Bell might be too old and I hate Matt Barnes, but a player like that.
Please not Matt Barnes.
I’d have to do something drastic.
Significant gravitas shortfall expected in 2010.
My invaluable prediction: Shane stays a Rocket next year - signs a deal for a couple of years and less money afterwards too.
I think that Battier staying around depends on two things.
1. Yao’s health. If there is some way to know that Yao is going to be back all the well, or even reasonably conclude he will, the odds of Shane staying rise tremendously. If Yao isn’t ok, we’ll try to move Shane.
2. If anyone else values him like we do. This has been mentioned before, but to include Shane in a trade, a trading partner will have to have a roughly comparable notion of his value to ours. That might be hard to find.
Significant gravitas shortfall expected in 2010.
Or be in a situation like the Raptors are
When a guy is likely to leave you and lose 30MM dollars in the process, you take the deal to the place he’s willing to go, even if you are getting lesser players overall.
www.TheDreamShake.com Co-Founder and Writer
That too - he could easily be part of a deal like that
Significant gravitas shortfall expected in 2010.
by Xiane on Mar 29, 2010 7:49 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Remember
Not a lot of people are as good at the lob pass to Yao as Shane or Tracy were. Just something to think about. That’s potentially one of those ‘hard-to-measure’ stats.
Wafer . . . again. (Marv Albert, HOU v. CLE Feb 2009)
-one of the FEW at Toyota Center who has the Wafer jersey
yes they should of done this, this year.
he is just getting older
he does things that are good but we need more offense
never know whats up wit yao or anything else this season.
could we see a repeat of this season for next season.
lol wut.
Offense isn’t our problem. At all. Or, maybe it is with the current team with half the members gone, but even without Yao, this team showed that it’s perfectly capable on the offensive end.
It’s defense where we’ve sucked this year, and Battier’s pretty damn good at that job.
Minnesotan Rockets fan
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