The Spring of Our Discontent?
by Xiane on Mar 9, 2010 1:47 PM CST
in Random Commentary
20 comments
It's getting harder to write recaps, and I apologize for that. I think I'd only be telling our faithful readers something they already know all too well, and any new readers can see it with their own eyes easily enough. I'll just say that many tediously familiar patterns repeated themselves in Minnesota and Detroit, including the well-worn theme of the tougher team on the second night of a B2B.
The Rockets are running out of season, and look to really be a .500 team right now. The early promise of 2009-2010 has been ground down by the toll of max-effort play, an honestly ( and truly) absurd schedule, the difficulty of adding 4 new pieces at the trade deadline, and that beloved Rocket staple, injuries.
Over the last 11 games we've gotten to see just how much Kyle Lowry, and Trevor Ariza mean to this team. Lowry's contribution in particular seems crucial to winning basketball. It's nice to read that everyone has missed everyone - Lowry the Rockets and the Rockets, Lowry. Don't think the price tag for Lowry (and Scola) isn't going up, either.
Trevor Ariza has been missed as well. There have been times where the Rockets have needed a stop, a basket, maybe a steal, and neither Lowry nor Ariza has been around to get it for us. Battier has played insanely good D, Hayes has been Hayes, and Jeffries looks to be a fine defender as well, but it hasn't been enough. Possibly because there's been no one to slow down quick backcourt players. Brooks and Martin have many virtues, being prime defenders isn't among them.
Our inability to close down an opponent, has made the generally good offensive contributions of Kevin Martin, Aaron Brooks and Luis Scola less meaningful. To win right now the Rockets basically have to demolish their opponents with an offensive barrage. Raise your hand if you thought this season would go that way.
But guess what? It's not quite over yet. 20 games remain, and neither Portland nor San Antonio is out of reach for the last playoff spot. San Antonio looks to have lost Parker for the rest of the regular season and Portland double-lost Przybilla to his second consecutive patella tendon injury (albeit in the shower - poor guy can't buy a break). Also they are still missing Camby. The 8th seed might not even play the Lakers, who, when presented with an NBA-level stretch of tough road games, wilted like a pansy in a Texas August.
>>>So! Welcome to the NBA LA! That's the schedule (almost) everyone else plays. Yes, yes, LA had a long stretch of road games to counterbalance the fact that they didn't leave LA for 8 weeks to start the year. That earlier road stretch was against: the Washington Generals, the Bad News Bears, the Sacramento Monarchs, The Flint Tropics, Yates High (a close game), Athletes in Action, The Dakota Skyforce, and Hickory High. Who wasn't impressed by that? The three teams that just beat them, apparently.<<<
Pardon the digression. A little Laker-bashing always cheers me up. Dallas, at any rate, is making a strong play for the #1 seed and has been almost unstoppable lately.
Anyhow, the Rockets are not eliminated, and we look to get Lowry and Ariza back very soon. We've added Martin, we've added height, we've added a guy who looks like he might, after all, have been worthy of a top 10 pick in Jordan Hill (working with CD and Sikma does wonders for front-court players it seems - I can't wait to see his game next year).
Some of you might be asking, "Why would we want to sneak into the playoffs as an 8th seed?" I can give five reasons for that.
1. It's fun. You never know what might happen in a series. We could win a couple of games, or a series, and that's never a bad thing. The eventual NBA champ Lakers lost to a painfully undermanned Rockets team nearly as many times as they lost to all their other playoff opponents combined. This team is arguably better than that one. While I don't think LA is scared of anyone, I have a feeling they'd rather not play Houston again.
2. It's better for our self-esteem and our future. Seriously, making the playoffs is better than otherwise for a young team - the more playoff tested our young roster becomes, the more likely it is we will advance in a future playoff series. That's the conventional wisdom anyway, but I don't see much wrong with the theory. I certainly do not see exposure to a playoff basketball atmosphere hurting our team.
3. Money. Let me say that again, MONEY. Being in the playoffs brings some very lucrative games to the Rockets. That's income you simply don't get if you stay home. Winning a first round series brings even more. Don't think this doesn't matter. If management can stock the coffers a bit more this year, it means that much more to spend next year. And we're going to have to spend money on Scola and Lowry for sure.
4. The odds of a .500 team getting a top 3 pick are really low. The (statistically likely) pick we get for the 8th seed wouldn't be that much worse (again with typical odds) than the one we'd get for not making the playoffs.
5. Money. It's worth saying thrice.
0 recs |
20 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
the playoff thing
Is so true. Right now, the lottery generator has us coming in at 12 or 13. Not great. I think another crucial aspect is letting kmart taste the playoffs again and get some nat’l television exposure. I would much rather this team lose in the first round than miss the playoffs by 4 games.
Wafer . . . again. (Marv Albert, HOU v. CLE Feb 2009)
-one of the FEW at Toyota Center who has the Wafer jersey
by olivarezq1 on Mar 9, 2010 2:00 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Thanks.
I really wanted to address that theme – the “Why would we want to be in the playoffs as an 8th seed?” because it’s been bugging me. The reasons to finish with the 1-3 pick are compelling, but don’t really apply to us. And look what happened when several teams tanked for Durant.
Significant gravitas shortfall expected in 2010.
I kind of wanted us to get a decent pick but your right, the highest we’ll probably go is 12th and while not many superstars tend to be drafted at that number you have to wonder since Darryl Morey has been so good at selecting players with much lower picks. It makes me wonder what kind of player we would get since we would of moved up around 10 picks from last years draft, and the year before that. Do you guys honestly think the Rocks will make the playoffs?
Change is the only constant
Yes.
Honestly, yeah I think they can still catch up to the eighth seed. I’m looking at San Antonio dropping out of the race for a few reasons: Look at their schedule in comparison to ours and others. They have a much tougher final stretch facing a lot heavier competition than we do, but then again, with our play as of late it hasn’t made much of a difference whether we are playing a sub or over 500 team. Secondly, they’re going to have to do it without Le Tony Parker. Just look at how they played against a Cavs team WITHOUT Lebron. I thought that was a given win to the Spurs since the Cavs hadn’t won without him in three years but hey, weirder things have happened.
Secondly, as those 7th and 8th seed teams begin to lose pieces we start to re-collect ours. Ariza is a probable tonight and Lowry looks like he should be back sometime this week and it couldn’t have come sooner.
Lastly, i’ve been watching the 1994 Finals series against New York and it’s making me beyond super eager for a chance to see us in the finals again, even if it is just an early first round exit. See post above.
"Just because I dunk a basketball doesn't mean I should raise your kids." Charles Barkley
I think it's about a 20%-30% chance of making the playoffs.
I honestly am not sure that the difference for Morey and co between say 12th and 20ish is all that great.
Maybe it is. I have a feeling we’re going to find out with the Knicks pick, as I don’t think their scheme is going to work. At all. And we ended up with a top 10 pick this year anyway in Hill, maybe not the guy we’d take at that spot, but a talent nonetheless.
Significant gravitas shortfall expected in 2010.
as I don’t think their scheme is going to work
I was reading Yahoo (I think) this morning, and they were talking about the Knicks basically targeting Joe Johnson now, realizing that the Wade/Lebron/Bosh thing is just a pipedream.
So… they’re looking at (if they get very lucky and sign who they want) two max contracts to JJ and maybe Amare or something. And maybe they get to keep David Lee. Maybe.
Wow, that’s a championship contender right there.
Well, JJ and Amare can be reunited to see
if the PHX plan for world domination might play better in New York. Without Nash.
I’m trying to imagine that D with Johnson, Amare, Lee, Rodriquez and Chandler. (I don’t know much about Chandler’s D, to be honest.) They’ll score a lot of points.
Also, this makes me appreciate our trade and Morey even more. It’s one thing to say “Well, he saw it coming and acted.” It’s another to see New York already making contingency plans for when putting all their money on one roulette number fails.
Johnson is better than Martin, but he’s not world’s better, and he’s older. I bet most people don’t realize that. We got our summer of 2010 guy early, and at a reasonable price. Let the bidding war for guys who shouldn’t ever get max deals commence.
Significant gravitas shortfall expected in 2010.
Johnson
I would much rather have Johnson than Martin,simply because Johnson is a much better-and far more willing passer-than Martin. Johnson’s edge in D would be nice. In fact,I would llike an off-season Martin for Johnson trade. Yes,I know that will never happen.
OT,just before starting to write I had the stray thought that Martin had better deliver fairly soon next yr.The previous 3 players that the Rockets traded for that had Adelman ties(Bonzi,Jackson,Ron) didn’t last too long in Houston under Adelman.
Re the Knicks.
Good grief their GM has done a horrible job setting the team up. I get the plan was for a top FA or two,but what about the rest of the roster? The 2008 draft was deep,deep enough that he should have been buying picks and going w/young group that would have 2 yrs under their belt by 2010.
Xiane,I’ve been watching the Knicks since the McGrady trade and Chandler is a decent defender,not a stopper,but not an embarrassment. Bigger problem w/him is there’s nothing he’s good at other than being an athlete. He’s a good athlete,who can run,jump,get hot every now and then and just doesn’t put it together game in and game out. If he wasn’t in NY he’d be another Rodney Carney,Al Thorton,Dorrell Wright.
Well maybe
Johnson is quite a good player, and I’d say he has the edge on Martin, but
1. There is no way we’re getting him, as you say.
2. He’ll cost between 2x and 50% more than Martin, and how much more do you get for that money?
3. It’s going to be a long long contract he signs. Will he be good until the end of it? He’s 30 already, I think.
I think Martin will last longer in Houston because he’s not a head case like those guys. They all did ok when they played, even Bonzi had his moments, and no one was that expensive. Artest cost us Greene and Casspi though.
Significant gravitas shortfall expected in 2010.
I think its pretty unlikely..
Now I’m as much a Rockets fan as anyone else on here, but I’m also a realist and with the way we’ve been playing lately I can’t see us putting a streak together and taking the 8th seed. Portland is currently the 8th seed and we’re 4.5 games behind them. To put matters in a simpler perspective Rockets: 31 and 31, Blazers 37 and 28. Thats a few wins away. There are 20 games left. Again with how long its taking to integrate our new player I just can’t see us making a final push.
Change is the only constant
I'm inclined to agree
but 20 games is a fairly large stretch, almost 1/4 of a season. A lot can still happen, but it means we’re going to have to win about 15-17 of 20. Not impossible, but a big ask.
Significant gravitas shortfall expected in 2010.
You also must take into consideration
1. Portland has played a LOT more games than us at this point.
2. Roy has been struggling lately, and even though his teammates are helping to pick up slack, you just can’t rely on role players to win you games more often than not (see: Rockets in January).
3. They are still center-less for the time being sans one Juwan Howard.
But another interesting point to be made is that San Antonio is without their floor general (although Hill is a nice backup, and they can’t lean on Manu and Timmy too much because one part of their bodies will probably break. If, and this is a big ‘if’, the Rockets can put together a good [not necessarily great] run for the rest of the season (which cannot be done without the speedy return of everyone that’s injured), San Antonio or Portland can be caught slumping.
Wafer . . . again. (Marv Albert, HOU v. CLE Feb 2009)
-one of the FEW at Toyota Center who has the Wafer jersey
It's hard to believe right now...
but the Rockets are putting enough talent on the court to win if Lowry and Ariza are back. Lowry could be back tonight. Washington doesn’t have a great record but they aren’t going to be easy either.
Washington looks like addition by subtraction.
The guys they are playing now seem to play better together, and they’ve got something to prove. This is in no wise the Washington team from when Arenas showed off his firearms collection.
Significant gravitas shortfall expected in 2010.
Playoffs over late lottery
Playoffs because…
Experience. You don’t get it until you get it.(Channeling my inner Zen Master:) )
Identifying weaknesses and strengths. Playing a series against a team really identifies weaknesses that will need to be addressed. And sometimes players step up and have an impact that changes how they are used in the future.
Fan interest. Having a Playoff run draws in all kinds of casual fans,converting a few into full-time fans which is good for long-term health of the team. And besides,isn’t a good Playoff Series great fun? Better than debating the merits of the 12th pick in the draft?
Trading Up. If the Rockets really have someone in mind,they now have enough to make trading up a half-dozen spots very attainable.
Money. Who knows how much getting those 3 Second Rd home games helped Morey convince Les to spend on the draft. pehaps a Playoff appearance will get Morey the cash to but another First. Having extra cash in hand to buy an extra First or take on a larger salary in a trade is much better than not having it.
Couldn't agree more.
I’d argue that the playoffs sped up the development of Brooks, Landry and Lowry considerably. That’s subjective of course, but I honestly think it did, especially with Brooks and Lowry – Landry was producing at that level anyway, just in limited time.
Significant gravitas shortfall expected in 2010.
I feel like
Recaps are more for people who missed games and need something to catch up on. They should still be done, even in this format.
The Dream Shake ...on Twitter.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak
I'd be willing to do recaps on games
in which others cannot cover them. My email address is quinnolivarez@gmail.com if you want to talk about it.
Wafer . . . again. (Marv Albert, HOU v. CLE Feb 2009)
-one of the FEW at Toyota Center who has the Wafer jersey
new york 2010 draft exchange option,
can anybody expound on this? We have the option to exchange our draft for new yorks’s as long as it’s after the first five isn’t it? Maybe we get the 12th if we tank for a probable new york 8th? Might as well go for broke and end up 20th as we can exchange this with new york’s anyway.
Here's the deal.
It’s actually the 2011 pick. I think Utah (ugh) owns the Knicks pick this year.
In 2011 we can exchange 1st round picks as long as it isn’t the #1 pick.
In 2012 we get New Yorks pick unless it’s in the top 5. I think this goes on for several years, and if New York picks in the top 5 in 2012, 2013 and 2015 we get two 2nd round picks in 2015.
Significant gravitas shortfall expected in 2010.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
