Rockets and the Pac-10?
by Xiane on Mar 9, 2010 4:13 PM CST
in Player Analysis
6 comments
I was looking over the Rockets roster the other day and couldn't help but notice how many Pac-10 players are on the squad.
Aaron Brooks - Oregon
Trevor Ariza - UCLA
Chase Budinger - Arizona
Jordan Hill - Arizona
Will Conroy - Washington*
The next highest teams are Portland, Milwaukee, Philadelphia and OKC with 3 each. What's interesting is where these guys fell in the draft - only Hill is a Top 10 pick, a Top 10 pick whose team essentially discarded him in his rookie year. Ariza is a 2nd rounder, along with Budinger. Brooks was late 1st round. Conroy wasn't drafted. Yet it's clear these guys are NBA caliber talents at some level.
Is the Pac-10 a source of undervalued performance for Morey and the front office? It certainly looks as if it might be. As of the start of this season, the four colleges with the most players picked were Duke and UNC, no surprise there, right? In a virtual tie with those two NCAA superpowers? Arizona and UCLA.
I'm not sure what it all means, and I haven't dug into the numbers, but amongst Western Conference teams with a lot of bright young talent, the PAC-10 features prominently:
Portland: Brandon Roy, Jeryd Bayless, Pendergraph
OKC: Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Weaver
The East teams have fewer star players, but Philly still has JaRue Holiday hailing from the PAC-10.
I'm going to investigate this more, in terms of draft positions, salary and production. An article in the invaluable 82games.com suggests that Wakeforest has produced the most value in the NBA in the last 10 years. A healthy dose of Tim Duncan and Chris Paul will do that for a school.
*Granted, Conroy is a 10 day contract, but the Washington pedigree and his ongoing destruction of the D-League should make some people consider him in a new light. He was the high school and college backcourt partner for Rocket-Killer-Roy.
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Role players?
Well not role players per se, but it seems many of the listed example are specialty/ rotation player, OJ mayo, Robin Lopez, Kevin Love, DeMar Derozan, Taj Gibson, Jordan Farmar to me also fall under that category
perhaps not real undervalued rather than more accurately assessed
since the ultimate goal of the draft is to get contributing talent, and ideally higher the pick should mean better the player. of course this doesnt necessary justify Kevin Love at 5, Derozan at 9, Bayless at 11, or Mayo at 3, but most Pac 10 player currently in the league I believe are mid-first to low picks
out of all the guys you mentioned, only Roy is a true star player
NBA draft is always a crapshoot anyways, and athleticism is often overvalued.
While we’re on the subject, which conference is overvalued?
That's a good question - I'll try to figure that out.
Here’s the thing.
I’ll disagree on Mayo – he’s not a superstar, but he can be very useful. The Brothers Lopez both look to be good, but the better one is in NJ. Brook? Robin? Batman? Anyhow, one of them IS going to be a star center, though the bar is low. Love? I think Love is going to be a star as well, and the sort of player the NBA hasn’t seen in a long, long, time – the best comp could be Bill Walton.
Taj Gibson was never meant to be a star where he was drafted, but he won the PF job over a guy who was supposed to be miles better. DeRozan? I dunno. He could go either way. Bayless looks like a guy who could do more if given a chance – I don’t think his game fits Portland’s all that well.
But what about Westbrook? Collison in NO?
Every 1st rounder isn’t going to be a star. Unless you are picking very early, the goal for most teams is to get a solid NBA player. Even that is somewhat rare.
Significant gravitas shortfall expected in 2010.
I like to think lottery =1st/2nd tier Star talent
Ideally, I mean, but teams buy into hypes, players get injured, baffling decisions happen.
But I like to think most lottery picks should at least generate that. and my definition of star is not All-star, but simply the recognizable goto options of a team. Still in truth most lottery generates about 5 if that.
The bar on center is much lower, so Brooke and Love are probably passable as 2nd tier stars. I think Westbrooke is a very good complement to Kevin Durant, but the bar for PG is much higher. However, Westbrooke is a lottery pick, so in my mind, his value was correctly assessed as well
Bayless and Collison are interesting cases in that they are players that need the ball to be effective on teams that have players with higher priority, in someways they may even be steals, but they are not realizing their full potential(Well, Collison is now, and he is a much better value since he is a late first rounder)
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