Diversionary thoughts
Hello everyone. This is my first post so I hope someone finds it interesting. With the stress of the Rockets being a longshot, dark horse contender for the number 8 spot in the west, I had some diversionary thoughts while they play it out.
First, is there anyone else who feels that if the Rockets were an Eastern Conference squad that they would be at least a top five team in the East (below Boston, Cleveland and Orlando but above most everyone else in the East)? This has been a point that I thought about often in the years that they've missed the playoffs only to see atrocious teams with losing records make the playoffs in the East. Right now Miami has the 8th seed with a 500 record so I can't complain too much, but in past years it has been really bad with horrible teams making it in the east and the rockets getting left out in the west. But, Houston is above 500 now so maybe I can complain.
Second, how good are they going to be with Yao? Without a guy who was a star before the season started (except McGrady) the Rockets have competed and kicked some serious tail when they weren't exhausted or run ragged by the schedule. Chuck Hayes has done a great job but his ppg is nowhere near what even a rusty or recovering Yao Ming is capable of. If Yao only gets 10 shots a game, he adds so many points to a team that had trouble establishing a go to scorer. I'm guessing if everyone is relatively healthy next year, they win 55 games with Yao back. Is it too optimistic to dream about a 60 plus win season and trip to at least the Conference finals?
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Welcome
If the Rockets were in the East we would probably be in the 5th spot by a few games. Interestingly, the Rockets have struggled against the East this season going 9-13 so far. I think that might partly be due to poor scouting or just an overall lack of intensity from the Rockets because its not a West team, but thats just speculation. That said, if the Rockets were in the East I think we would be behind the top 4 but comfortably ahead of the rest.
The big difference with Yao back will be style of play. We have been playing an up-tempo style with Yao out but when he comes back we will have to slow it down. I think there will be an adjustment period at the beginning of the season but with all of the scorers we have and the defense Yao will bring we will figure it out and be a top 3 West team with a legitimate shot at the championship, and im not being a homer.
To all Houston sports fans, Houston is the 4th biggest city in America, there will be traffic on the way to your respective sports game. Come Early, Be Loud, Stay Late.
i would have to check on this
but i think those losses came after a back to back scenario. Just didnt have the energy the next night.
5 of our losses to East teams have been on the 2nd half of a back to back.
We are 1-5 in the 2nd half of a back to back vs the East, but we are 7-4 in the same games vs the West. East losses came @ Orlando, @ Cleveland, vs. Chicago, vs. Philly and @ Detroit.
I think in that case its an issue of tiredness and poor scouting/preperation on the coaching staffs part.
To all Houston sports fans, Houston is the 4th biggest city in America, there will be traffic on the way to your respective sports game. Come Early, Be Loud, Stay Late.
by TexasHoosier on Mar 10, 2010 3:16 PM CST up reply actions
Clarify please
Do you mean you cant imagine us winning 60 games, or you cant imagine us being mentioned with LA, Cle, Orl, Bos if and when we do win 60 games.
To all Houston sports fans, Houston is the 4th biggest city in America, there will be traffic on the way to your respective sports game. Come Early, Be Loud, Stay Late.
by TexasHoosier on Mar 10, 2010 3:17 PM CST up reply actions
Well
I can’t see us winning 60 games at all really. And if we did I don’t think it would be next season, but instead the 11 – 12 season.
Hahaha, I didn’t really think about them NOT mentioning us with those 4 teams if we did win 60+. That probably would happen… they’d most likely write us off.
56 Win Season
I’d say the Rockets would have won 56 this year. With Yao, we’d probably be the 2nd best team in the West this year. We’re deeper than Dallas and Denver, and we’d definitely be very competitive with LA, particularly since we have the PGs to dominate, the guys to throw at Kobe…and Scola and Yao are both tougher than Pau and Andy Bynum. Kevin Martin would have trouble with Ron Artest bullying him, but otherwise, it’d be fun to watch.
B^2
In Daryl Morey, Rick Smith and Ed Wade we (usually) trust.
safe to say
that the run and gun was proven unsustainable as you’d need precision timing on when to leave your defensive position and start the break. It was fun early in the season as we had the engine running full throttle while the rest of the teams were still getting warmed up. By the 20game mark, everybody else had established their own groove, the wins were harder to come by, flaws on defense were exposed and capitulated on by the opposition. Of course the fatigue and long minutes running became a factor, adding on to the dilemma. I haven’t checked on the minutes played stats by our core group, but i’d guess most of them would be pretty high up on that list. I don’t know, but imo, coach RA doesn’t consider this a factor as even in 2009 he’s been playing yao extended minutes even when we had deke as a reliable reliever.
With yao back healthy, an inside presence that would alter defenses, it would be folly to insist on the run and gun. Mainly because it wouldn’t be the only option, and secondarily it would tire the big man unnecessarily. I think that we’ll be back to the inside-out game next season.
I understand where you're coming from
Trevor did play a lot and I know Lowry was hurt, but it seemed like Brooks almost never came out. I do hope that RA cuts down Yao’s minutes next year. We need him healthy. I kind of like the idea of doing a Run and Gun/Half Court hybrid. Even if Yao is on the court If we have a fast break and Ariza, Martin, Budinger, Brooks, Lowry, or any combination of 2 or 3 with other Scola or Hill trailing I say we run and have Yao kind of jog back. Not that T-Mac jog back, but not run up and down as if he’s going with the break, but at a good pace that would not tire him and allow him to get back down court if the ball handler decides to slow down and set up the offense.
awesome analysis guys
It looks like most people are cautiously optimistic with the return of Yao and predicting mid 50 wins. A few people have gone so fun as to predict 60 plus. I truly hope that’s the case.
I really like the run n gun / half court hybrid idea. Seems like the run did cause fatigue and wore the players out over the season – that and the schedule. Hopefully with Yao back, the run can be powered by rebounds and the scorers in half court given much easier coverage with Yao depending constant attention.
by ClutchFanSince94 on Mar 11, 2010 12:24 AM CST reply actions
just thinking
the run and gun may be anathema to playing good defense as you anticipate the break too much, most often risking leaving your man even before the ball is secured. It needs precision timing that is hard to sustain. You know, your mind is constantly switching from the run mode, to a defensive stop mode, and back. Not always easy as one tends to get carried away by the zen of the run and gun. Maybe we’d need RA to point this out continuously as the players would tend to forget.
On offense, i don’t think yao’s presence would deter the run and gun as you don’t really need 5 men to sprint down the court. It’s more on the defensive mindset that i am worried about. Just thinking.
In Morey I trust.
With just Yao back healthy and productive, we’re probably in the 50-55 win range, but I don’t think Morey is going to leave it at that. He’ll look to improve the team, and I think that will get us over that 55-win hump.
I consider it extremely unrealistic to expect a sign-and-trade for a star, but I think he will at least use the LLE or MLE to improve the team (perhaps on a guy like Marcus Camby, who lives in Houston during the off-season), though perhaps at the expense of picking up the option for the Chuckwagon.
I expect BOTH Kyle Lowry and Luis Scola back
Just throwing it out there…I do not, however, know what will happen with the Chuckwagon. With Jeffries, Hill, and Andersen behind Yao and Scola, does that make Hayes expendable? I’d rather have Chuck than Jared Jeffries any day…but this is a business, and some team is more than likely to make a crazy move and give Hayes more money than he could imagine.
B^2
In Daryl Morey, Rick Smith and Ed Wade we (usually) trust.

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