Why Retain Chuck Hayes? A Statistical Look At Individual Post Defense

by Tom Martin on May 11, 2010 9:35 PM CDT in Player Analysis

Data for this post was obtained using Synergy Sports technology.

Three days ago, Jonathan Feigen reported that the Rockets are planning on retaining Chuck Hayes for the 2010-2011 season. Hayes has a player option and is due to make $2.3 million this year. In other words, it won't cost the Rockets much to keep their captain, which is nice.

Often times, we credit the Chuckwagon as being one of the best individual post defenders in the league. Though Chuck's presence in the lane is often transparent, as teams made and attempted far more shots at the rim this season than in years past, his reputation as a one-on-one post defender is legitimate. However, we've largely gone along with this assumption based on what we've seen here and there, or just because we read it somewhere and decided to agree. So, I figured, why not take a look at the statistics, as they have recently become available to me.

After the jump, I'll be taking a look at Chuck's individual post defense statistics in comparison with many of the NBA's top starting centers, as well as low-post players who serve as defensive options off the bench. I may have left a few names off the list (Anderson Varejao does a little bit more than just post defense), but I figure that these are the most prominent names that should be considered. Then, for kicks, I threw Luis Scola on the list, which may not have been such a good idea. And I referenced Chris Bosh, too, because I basically have to.

Before we look at the numbers, we have to take into consideration the role that the player has on a specific team. Guys like David Lee and Scola aren't necessarily on the court for their defense, so, later, when we look at salaries, these players may not apply in the same way that Chuck does. Nonetheless, here are the stats.

Player	Chances
David Lee	321
Al Horford	310
Nene	301
*Chuck Hayes*	*287*
Brook Lopez	261
Carlos Boozer	257
Kendrick Perkins	254
Jermaine O’Neal	238
Amare Stoudemire	236
Mehmet Okur	233
Tim Duncan	231
Dwight Howard	229
Spencer Hawes	219
Luis Scola	215
Al Jefferson	212
Sam Dalembert	206
Roy Hibbert	205
Joakim Noah	201
Pau Gasol	198
Chris Bosh	191
Andrew Bynum	185
Marc Gasol	184
Andrew Bogut	175
Chris Andersen	140
DeJuan Blair	137

First, we have the total number of post-up "chances" that each of the players above guarded during the 2009-2010 season. A post-up chance is not the same as a shot attempt - a chance begins as soon as the offensive player receives the ball. He may shoot it, or, due to good defense, he may commit a turnover. Turnovers are the only alternative considered here; passing out of the post is not. These are possessions that end after the post player receives the ball. In this regard, Chuck faced the third-most post-up chances of anyone on this list. Keep in mind that Marc Gasol's season was cut short by an injury.

Note (5/12): Tisbee makes a great point in the comments: the fact that Chuck faced so many "chances" sheds light to how confident the Rockets are in leaving him in a one-on-one situation and holding off the double team. Many players on this list with fewer "chances" most likely received more help (in the form of double teams) than Chuck did. Leaving Chuck by himself allows for the defense to close out quicker on the perimeter in the event of a kick-out pass.

Player	% Score	Chances
Dwight Howard	35.80	229
Mehmet Okur	36.10	233
Kendrick Perkins	36.20	254
Al Horford	37.40	310
Andrew Bynum	38.90	185
Tim Duncan	39.40	231
Jermaine O’Neal	39.90	238
Nene	40.20	301
Brook Lopez	42.50	261
Pau Gasol	42.90	198
Chris Bosh	43.50	191
Sam Dalembert	43.70	206
Joakim Noah	43.80	201
Amare Stoudemire	44.50	236
Roy Hibbert	44.90	205
*Chuck Hayes*	*45.60*	287
Andrew Bogut	45.70	175
Al Jefferson	45.80	212
Carlos Boozer	45.90	257
Marc Gasol	46.20	184
Spencer Hawes	47.90	219
Chris Andersen	49.30	140
David Lee	51.10	321
Luis Scola	54.00	215
DeJuan Blair	54.00	137

"% Score" is the money stat. It's pretty self-explanatory, as it measures the percentage of post-up chances that result in a made basket. Hayes is slightly below average when it comes to % Score among the players on this list, and it's a testament to Dwight Howard and (gasp!) Mehmet Okur that they are ten percentage points below Chuck. Keep in mind, we are still only looking at a handful of NBA big men here. Chuck is far better than many players who still get paid more than him.

So perhaps Hayes isn't among the elite individual post defenders in the league when it comes to preventing made shots. But there are two other factors that need to be assessed that lie in Hayes' favor.

Player	% Turnover	% Score	Chances
Nene	16.60	40.20	301
Andrew Bogut	16.60	45.70	175
Marc Gasol	15.80	46.20	184
Carlos Boozer	15.60	45.90	257
Mehmet Okur	15.50	36.10	233
Al Jefferson	14.60	45.80	212
Al Horford	14.50	37.40	310
*Chuck Hayes*	*14.30*	45.60	287
Roy Hibbert	13.70	44.90	205
Sam Dalembert	13.60	43.70	206
Amare Stoudemire	13.60	44.50	236
Brook Lopez	13.00	42.50	261
Chris Andersen	12.90	49.30	140
Dwight Howard	12.70	35.80	229
Joakim Noah	12.40	43.80	201
Pau Gasol	12.10	42.90	198
Jermaine O’Neal	11.80	39.90	238
Andrew Bynum	10.80	38.90	185
Tim Duncan	10.80	39.40	231
Chris Bosh	10.50	43.50	191
Kendrick Perkins	10.20	36.20	254
David Lee	8.70	51.10	321
Spencer Hawes	7.80	47.90	219
Luis Scola	7.00	54.00	215
DeJuan Blair	6.60	54.00	137

"% Turnover" is another self-explanatory stat, as it measures the percentage of post-up chances that end in a turnover. Hayes instantly shoots up the list, which is no surprise, as he has become quite good at swatting the living crap out of the ball as soon as an opponent turns to score. I'm not sure if this takes into account the number of strips that Chuck actually made in the post, as in, the number of loose balls that he caused that the Rockets did not pick up for a turnover. Also, the fact that Hayes' turnover rate is high means that opponents' field goal percentage against him in the post is high as well - in other words, Hayes makes it tougher to get a shot off, but if an opponent can manage to do so, it's easier for them to score on Chuck than it is against most of the post defenders on the list. Either way, Hayes' % Turnover is an impressive statistic, as the turnover battle is often a major player in deciding the outcome of a game.

Player	09-10 Salary*	% Turnover	% Score	Chances
Jermaine O’Neal	$22.90	11.80	39.90	238
Tim Duncan	$22.20	10.80	39.40	231
Pau Gasol	$16.50	12.10	42.90	198
Amare Stoudemire	$16.40	13.60	44.50	236
Chris Bosh	$15.70	10.50	43.50	191
Dwight Howard	$15.30	12.70	35.80	229
Andrew Bynum	$12.50	10.80	38.90	185
Carlos Boozer	$12.30	15.60	45.90	257
Al Jefferson	$12.00	14.60	45.80	212
Sam Dalembert	$12.00	13.60	43.70	206
Nene	$10.50	16.60	40.20	301
Andrew Bogut	$10.00	16.60	45.70	175
Mehmet Okur	$9.00	15.50	36.10	233
David Lee	$7.00	8.70	51.10	321
Al Horford	$4.30	14.50	37.40	310
Kendrick Perkins	$4.30	10.20	36.20	254
Chris Andersen	$3.60	12.90	49.30	140
Marc Gasol	$3.30	15.80	46.20	184
Luis Scola	$3.30	7.00	54.00	215
Brook Lopez	$2.50	13.00	42.50	261
Joakim Noah	$2.50	12.40	43.80	201
Spencer Hawes	$2.30	7.80	47.90	219
*Chuck Hayes*	*$2.10*	14.30	45.60	287
Roy Hibbert	$1.60	13.70	44.90	205
DeJuan Blair	$0.85	6.60	54.00	137

*Salary recorded in millions ($2.10 = $2.1 million)

Here's where Chuck is most valuable: the wallet. For what the Rockets pay him, Hayes gives the defense a very effective individual post defender. As I said earlier, many of these players aren't necessarily asked to defend as much as Chuck or Chris Andersen, so take that into account. But for the Rockets, Chuck fills an important role, and it's nice that he comes so cheaply. If I were to do a similar list of players who fill the same special role that Chuck does, I'm convinced that he'd be at or near the top of each category. This is a prime reason why Daryl Morey and Houston will likely bring him back. And don't forget, he also provides some much needed comic relief at the free-throw line. Sure would hate to lose that.

Hope this helps explain Chuck's value to those who may have questioned it. And just in case anyone forgot, Chuck Hayes is still 6 foot 6. Value to the Rockets aside, this man is incredibly good at what he does.

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Comments

Wow

Chucks numbers are really impressive for a guy his size. Especially when you put the turnover percentage into account. Secondly lord god almigty JermaineO’Neal was maybe just a tad over payed. Finally, I want me some Roy Hibbert.

The player I would like least at #9 would be my sister’s cat, Captain Creamsicle. She does have a great work ethic and agility, but I’m really concerned that at 9 lbs., she’s too small to play safety in the NFL. She also bites way too often on play action and is easily distracted by someone waving string in the crowd. Lastly, her wonderlic score was pretty awful, answering "meow meow meow" for most of the questions- Dr. Brackish Okun

by mob16151 on May 11, 2010 9:50 PM CDT reply actions

The man

deserves a raise.

by Ivan A on May 11, 2010 9:51 PM CDT reply actions

Remember that triple overtime game?

Didn’t Chuck have like 21 rebounds and 10 pts while holding Jefferson to 21 pts through 2 and a half overtimes?

Rockets, Suns, and former Sonic fan. All equal to me.

by xNevermind on May 11, 2010 10:03 PM CDT reply actions

Jermaine O' Neal was paid 23 mil this year?

Holy shit he is overpaid.

"You got to believe in yourself. Hell, I believe I'm the best-looking guy in the world and I might be right."- Charles Barkley

by bone31crusher on May 11, 2010 10:17 PM CDT reply actions

Thank God, finally something insightful.

I’m obviously addicted to this board, but after all the ridiculous FanPosts we’ve had on here, its refreshing to see some intelligent analysis.

Synergy seems like the coolest thing, and this is a really good use of it. It’s a lot of fun to see who is actually at the top of the league at such an important skill.
-—
I gotta say, I’m a huge fan of Chuck’s game. He’s a solid defensive player in the post, but how many of the guys on the list above can be switched onto a wing and still play solid D?

On top of that, he’s got to be the best high post passer and outlet passer on our team. I’d bet Coach Sleepy especially doesn’t mind those two qualities.

I’m glad Chuck and that pristine free throw form is going to be in a Rockets jersey next year.

"The French Army: Better defender than David Lee" - JE Skeets, in response to David Lee getting a vote for Defensive Player of the Year.

by flipasta on May 11, 2010 10:24 PM CDT reply actions

Good point here

He’s a solid defensive player in the post, but how many of the guys on the list above can be switched onto a wing and still play solid D?

Sure, perhaps his stopping Paul Pierce is a small sample size, but it’s indicative of his talent as a defender and of his value to a defense.

The Dream Shake ...on Twitter.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak

by Tom Martin on May 11, 2010 10:29 PM CDT up reply actions

And look for more Synergy stuff

I’ve got it til September, so I’m going to try to make good use of it.

The Dream Shake ...on Twitter.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak

by Tom Martin on May 11, 2010 10:30 PM CDT up reply actions

dude

i dunno chuck hayes seems kinda overrated to me.

by chuckhayesALLSTAR2010 on May 12, 2010 12:08 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs

Hahaha

from the guy whos tag is chuckhaysallstar.

by AlDe2356 on May 12, 2010 12:44 AM CDT up reply actions

For being 6'6"

I would say he is pretty beastly, but thats not saying anything productive.
Jeff Gordan could out drive me with a blindfold on but if im in a ferrari(assuming i could drive it) and hes in a civic it doesnt really matter.

Hays is cheep, and good for his size, but I dont know if that makes him good.
I dont think the post gives enough information to really say he is/isnt a good defender.
All i really got out of this is he doesn’t stop his man very often but on the times he does stop him he is slightly better than average at forcing a turn over.
Please explain to me what in the above post exactly suggests he is a good defensive player?
As for value. If I played in the nba for a dollar and caused a guy to miss 1/10 times per stop id be the cheepest person in the league. Still doesnt make me a good basketball player.

by AlDe2356 on May 12, 2010 12:53 AM CDT reply actions

Um, okay. It might help if you read the entire post in its entirety, because it should explain it in detail.

Please explain to me what in the above post exactly suggests he is a good defensive player?

Chuck prevents a good percentage of his opponents from scoring. Sure, he’s not as good as some of the elite players, but remember, this is a guy ideally coming off our bench. And we’re not paying him much.

As for value. If I played in the nba for a dollar and caused a guy to miss 1/10 times per stop id be the cheepest person in the league. Still doesnt make me a good basketball player.

Does the phrase “blown out of proportion” mean anything to you?

The Dream Shake ...on Twitter.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak

by Tom Martin on May 12, 2010 1:45 AM CDT up reply actions

Also doesnt it say something that teams are willing to shoot against him so often?

I dont think they consider him a defensive threat.

Btw im just going off defense here. I know little about passing and all that good stuff

by AlDe2356 on May 12, 2010 12:56 AM CDT reply actions

Well

Some of this is due to the fact that Chuck started for the Rockets and played the entire season. Yes, opponents most likely figured that they could take him to the hole more, but remember, we are looking at PERCENTAGES, not total attempts. If Chuck can get shot against 800 times and stop 500 of them, that’s some great defense.

The Dream Shake ...on Twitter.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak

by Tom Martin on May 12, 2010 1:47 AM CDT up reply actions

Chuck is a defensive specialist not a starter

He is more effective when we put him in the game to stop someone who is burning us. He would put all his energy into stopping that person whether it is Garnet or Duncan if he came off the bench as opposed to being the starting center. He has done a good job when he plays that role.

by Rockets4LIFE on May 12, 2010 8:46 AM CDT up reply actions

Nice post

Horford and Perkins both impress me with their numbers at their salaries, but are probably up for large pay raises. These numbers also do very well in showing the value that we have in Hayes. Something else that these stats show is that finding a serviceable defensive backup for Yao in the draft is not impossible, looking at the numbers of Lopez and Hibbert.

by respectable on May 12, 2010 1:26 AM CDT reply actions

ALABI.

That is all.

The Dream Shake ...on Twitter.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak

by Tom Martin on May 12, 2010 1:42 AM CDT up reply actions

Don't think he will reach us

Maybe Whiteside

by Rockets4LIFE on May 12, 2010 8:47 AM CDT up reply actions

Man I wish this place had an edit button

I put the numbers into an excell sheet.
If you look at points allowed( chances*score%/100) chuck hays has the second highest amount of points allowed at 130.8 trailing only david lee.

In chucks defense. He scored 5th on the points stopped( chances*(1-score%/100)
with 156 points stopped

for value i looked at point differential / million payed.( (points stopped-points allowed)/salary)
and hays once again ranked 5th.
( If anyone was wondering scola ranked second to last in front of Dejuan Blair)

The top 5 were
Al hortford
Kendrik Perkin
Brook Lopez
Roy Hibbert

by AlDe2356 on May 12, 2010 1:29 AM CDT reply actions

I might be misinterpreting what you're doing

But if you’re comparing raw numbers like chances and total points allowed/stops, wouldn’t that mean the rankings based on that would be heavily dependent on the number of chances?

That is to say, could the reason that Chuck has the second most points allowed is because his number of ‘chances’ are so high? Similarly, wouldn’t any differential be magnified in players who have the highest numbers of chances?

I might be missing something, but I’m not sure what observations to make from your comparison.

"The French Army: Better defender than David Lee" - JE Skeets, in response to David Lee getting a vote for Defensive Player of the Year.

by flipasta on May 12, 2010 1:38 AM CDT up reply actions

you need to stick to percentages

Factoring chances into points allowed, like you did, means nothing, other than it inflates Chuck’s statistics way out of proportion. That’s not how it works.

The Dream Shake ...on Twitter.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak

by Tom Martin on May 12, 2010 1:41 AM CDT up reply actions

but shouldnt chances mean something.

If teams consistently attack a player of defense that means he isnt as good on defense.

by AlDe2356 on May 12, 2010 1:46 AM CDT up reply actions

but you can't mesh chances with point totals in this case

It does not make mathematical sense.

The Dream Shake ...on Twitter.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak

by Tom Martin on May 12, 2010 1:48 AM CDT up reply actions

i used chances to get the point totals?

meh ill take from the ppl who know stat better than i do

by AlDe2356 on May 12, 2010 1:50 AM CDT up reply actions

well

If you look at points allowed( chances*score%/100) chuck hays has the second highest amount of points allowed at 130.8 trailing only david lee.

Am I mis-reading something? The word “Chances” is right there.

The Dream Shake ...on Twitter.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak

by Tom Martin on May 12, 2010 1:52 AM CDT up reply actions

score%

i guess i should have written it as %score

by AlDe2356 on May 12, 2010 1:53 AM CDT up reply actions

I know what you meant

And it still doesn’t apply to what we’re talking about here.

The Dream Shake ...on Twitter.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak

by Tom Martin on May 12, 2010 1:57 AM CDT up reply actions

enough already

Please stop trying to sound intelligent AIDe, it is obvious to everyone that you are not. I recommend that you try this on for size “Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.”

Tom, I’m very impressed by the amount of patience you have.

by slothy420 on May 12, 2010 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions

It's almost to a fault, actually.

The Dream Shake ...on Twitter.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak

by Tom Martin on May 12, 2010 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions

It could

also mean that he plays on a team that speeds up the game so that everyone has more possessions. So there are more possessions for someone to be attacking on.

by svspider on May 12, 2010 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions

i love the chuckwagon as much as anyone...

but defense, what Chuck does is only half or less a % of the game.
He is awesome at that but we would probably be better served with someone slightly worse defensively and more potent offensively. I think there are probably PF’s out there that fit that bill that are as cheap as Chuck…..but we would still then be missing the comic relief at the free through line. But the guy has heart…which can never be overrated. If we are going to be super competitive next year (a big if with health issues) we will need as much heart as we can get….If we got ride of Chuck on top of Landry we will miss them in the close games when heart matters
go rockets

by John P on May 12, 2010 8:33 AM CDT reply actions

The most underrated

and unmeasurable part of his game is how he quarterbacks the team defense. From his spot in the paint he can give his teammates heads up. Besides he sets a bar on effort and commitment to D that is contagious to other players.

by svspider on May 12, 2010 10:08 AM CDT reply actions

Unfortunately, this also suggests that Memhet Okur is one of the more under rated defenders in the NBA.

"Each in turn... volunteered his suggestions, his invaluable suggestions."

The Dreamshake

by Xiane on May 12, 2010 1:55 PM CDT reply actions

I guess we never noticed

Because Yao has his number. But then again, if Dwight can’t stop Yao either, its not really a knock on Okur.

"The French Army: Better defender than David Lee" - JE Skeets, in response to David Lee getting a vote for Defensive Player of the Year.

by flipasta on May 12, 2010 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions

A Little Bit Into Why Chuck Is Good At Basketball

I think there are still a few people on this board with this sentiment

Please explain to me what in the above post exactly suggests he is a good defensive player?

Tom responded to this question nicely, but I do think there are a few people on this board who are a little perplexed at Chuck’s impact on the court. I get the argument. His game doesn’t have much flash and I can see how people miss some of the ways he’s effective. I’m sure I miss a lot of what Chuck does as well, but I thought I’d share why he’s as good as he is in the post, and why I think he’s even better when he plays with Yao:
-———-
Chuck’s game is heavily dependent on where his man makes the catch. That is to say, his defensive post game is effective because of what he does before his man gets the ball. As a result, his man will often catch the ball two or three feet beyond from where he wants to be. From here, Chuck can use his strength to keep his man on his spot and essentially make him have to spin and shoot without any room to move.

Here’s the best example I could find. At about 30 seconds, watch what Chuck does to Bynum before the catch. Then watch Bynum try and fail to make room for himself, and eventually put up an off balance shot.

When Chuck has to play center, especially with Scola on the other post and Martin on the wing, he’s often forced to leave his man to help. As a result, when he gets back to his man, he’s often having to play the post up right under the basket. Lets face it, at that point he’s not going to be very effective.

Pair him with Yao, and he becomes more effective on the post because he doesn’t have to leave his man as often. Chuck’s a great help defender, but he’s no clean up man, and if he has to help every third play, his post defense is going to suffer.

I remember a few years ago, NBA.com ranked the most effective trios and Chuck-Yao-Tracy was consistently at the top. I’m sure it was some dumbass stat like Eff, but I do believe that Chuck is a much better player with a guy like Yao on the court, and the Rockets are a much better team.
-————
I also want to mention that Chuck is also awesome at forcing turnovers (something Tom explains well in the post), and he’s also one of our best pick and roll defenders (along with Scola).

Come on guys, if you’re not on board yet, give this guy his due. He’s a damn good basketball player.

"The French Army: Better defender than David Lee" - JE Skeets, in response to David Lee getting a vote for Defensive Player of the Year.

by flipasta on May 12, 2010 3:44 PM CDT reply actions

Good points in there.

Also I’d like to add, because it can’t be said enough, VALUE FOR MONEY.

This is good defense at a very very low price. As your starting center, Chuck has problems, mainly that he can’t score, or shoot FT. As a part-time defensive stopper? Chuck is incredible value for money. You’ve got a high-value defender occupying a roster spot for low money.

"Each in turn... volunteered his suggestions, his invaluable suggestions."

The Dreamshake

by Xiane on May 12, 2010 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions

Look twice

That’s less than 4 iso’s a game. For most of the players it’s barely 3 iso’s a game. Suggests either a lack of low-post offense,or that teams routinely double in the low post.(After watching the Knicks after the McGrady trade,it’s easy to see why Lee has so many iso’s against him-the Knicks are horrible defensively and never help out on D.)

Consider all the times Bill and Clyde whined about the Rockets not doubling,it suggests either the team has great faith in Chuck defending 1-on-1,thus allowing the rest to stay close to 3pt shooters and that was the strategy-or the defense collapsed and players lost their assignments and didn’t drop down to help. Given the Scola chances,it’s more likely the team had/has great faith in Chuck defending iso’d in the low-post.

Re the Chuck is a good defender buzz,Adelman has stated on numerous occassions Chuck is either the best,or when particularly peeved,the only big man defender on the Rockets. Secondly,Morey and crew are huge into analysis and they’ve had several yrs worth of data on Chuck. If they didn’t think he was a very good defender they wouldn’t have re-signed him,esp considering his lack of offense.

by Tisbee on May 12, 2010 4:15 PM CDT reply actions

Good point, I'm going to make an edit.

The Dream Shake ...on Twitter.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak

by Tom Martin on May 12, 2010 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions

the team has great faith in Chuck defending 1-on-1,thus allowing the rest to stay close to 3pt shooters

Damn man, thats a clever interpretation. Morey might have a job for you.

Considering that Chuck is often on the court for purpose of taking the better offensive post player, like you suggest, that makes his stats all the more impressive (and Scola’s stats all the less impressive).

"The French Army: Better defender than David Lee" - JE Skeets, in response to David Lee getting a vote for Defensive Player of the Year.

by flipasta on May 12, 2010 6:03 PM CDT up reply actions