Carroll Dawson's Lost Decade?
by ClutchFanSince94 on Jul 27, 2010 11:43 PM CDT
66 comments
[Nice analysis from the FanPosts -- Tom]
Carroll Dawson was the Rockets GM from 1996 to 2007. I wanted to grade his performance since it seems like the current guy is much more productive in that position. How much better is DM than CD? Or, is DM just lucky? Let’s do the analysis. I’m not sure if he participated in the 1996 draft so this analysis will not give credit for the Randy Livingston / Othella Harrington draft class.
1997 – drafted Rodrick Rhodes (24) & Serge Zwicker (2nd, 1); passed on no stars
1998 – drafted Michael Dickerson (14), Bryce Drew (16), Mirsad Turkcan (18), Cuttino Mobley (2nd, 12); passed on Ricky Davis (21), Al Harrington (25), Ruben Patterson (2nd, 2), Rafer Alston (2nd, 10), Rashard Lewis (2nd, 3)
1999 – drafted Kenny Thomas (22), Tyrone Washington (2nd, 44), Venson Hamilton (2nd, 50); passed on Devean George (23), Andre Kirilenko (24)
2000 – drafted Jason Collier (15), Dan Langhi (2nd, 2); passed on Hedo Turkoglu (16), Desmond Mason (17), Quentin Richardson (18), Speedy Claxton (20), Michael Redd (2nd, 14)
2001 – drafted Richard Jefferson (13, traded for Eddie Griffin), Jason Collins (15, also traded), Brandon Armstrong (18); passed on Troy Murphy (14), Zach Randolph (19), Brendan Haywood (20), Jamaal Tinsley (27), Tony Parker (28), Gilbert Arenas (2nd, 2), Mehmet Okur (2nd, 9)
2002 – drafted Yao Ming (1), Bostjan Nachbar (15), Tito Maddox (2nd, 9); passed on (after the Nachbar pick) Tayshaun Prince (19), Carlos Boozer (2nd, 6), Luis Scola (2nd, 27)
2003 – No 1st Round Picks, drafted Malick Badiane (2nd, 15); passed on Kyle Korver
2004 – No 1st Round Picks, drafted Luis Flores (2nd, 27)
2005 – drafted Luther Head (24); passed on David Lee (30);
2006 – drafted Rudy Gay (8, traded for Battier), Steve Novak (2nd, 2)
From the 2007 to 2010 drafts, DM drafted Aaron Brooks at 26 and Carl Landry in the second round. In Boston, DM participated in drafting Rondo and Kendrick Perkins. What marks the CD years isn’t just the spectacular blunders (passing up Rashard Lewis 3 times, trading Rudy Gay for Battier, trading Richard Jefferson for Eddie Griffin, missing star after star) but is actually the numerous years where we couldn’t even find someone who could get a spot on an NBA roster. Combined with 2003 and 2004 when we didn’t have a draft pick, CD’s stewardship of the draft was like a colossal shipwreck that stifled the Rockets’ ability to get vital young talent. CD did find us Cuttino Mobley though. That was one good, non-obvious pick.
Now, lets look at trades. Here, CD does a little better. He got us Barkley. But, he had to gut the entire team. CD got us Pippen for a steal. The Francis trade was a no brainer and Francis forced that trade. Then the McGrady trade got a high value for assets that seemed to be at their peak. However, with CD we see a pattern of neglecting the draft and swinging for the fences with big trades for superstars. During that era, the Rockets’ big weakness was always journeymen at key spots (Matt Maloney, Jon Barry, Steve Novak, etc. playing big roles in the playoffs and getting outmatched by guys like Stockton and Dirk).
Now, lets look at DM’s trades. DM has gotten us stars like Kevin Martin and Luis Scola via trade, but he has never gutted the team in order to do so.
So, what’s the CD legacy? Was CD a guy who made the blockbuster trade but his stars couldn’t pull it off or was CD’s decade overall the lost decade for Rockets’ basketball?
No cursing in title. No pirated material, such as links to online game streams. Do not cut/paste entire sections of content from other websites. Thanks.
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this has got to be
on of the most in depth GM analysis I have ever read. This has to be one of the most informative fanposts this year.
SUPER REC’D
GO ROCKETS, GO TEXANS, GO ASTROS (EVEN THOUGH THEY SUCK)!!!
I forgot...
I just read that Clutchfans has a post titled “The Incompetence of Carroll Dawon.” I just skimmed the first page when I noticed something I totally forgot. Cannonball pointed out the signing of Kelvin Cato. Wikipedia list the contract at 6 years and $42 million. I believe he got that contract with one year remaining on his deal and after he grabbed 20 boards in a pre-season games. GAG.
by ClutchFanSince94 on Jul 28, 2010 12:35 AM CDT reply actions
"stackin up chips like lego! dunk on a punk jus like kelvin cato! Houston to the rocket, a 4 peat like comets
what a great article Clutchfan! But i think u forgot Hakeem Olajuwon. (1984)
I found 83 cents in my backyard after last night's party..I'm not returning it until the owner describes what coins were lost in EXACT change. -Willie White's status
by chuckhayesALLSTAR2010 on Jul 28, 2010 12:46 AM CDT up reply actions
i sees u boy...wit two eyes
i fux wit zero too cuz he from da H…jus like da rockets is
/////dunk on a punk jus like kelvin cato\\
Ima d*ck so i shouldnt be dat hard to swallow
CD
Classic example of drafting needs over talent almost most of the time
I think the lesson learned is
To build a solid team you have to build through the draft
Had some of those misses hit we could be years ahead of where we are and quite possibly holding a championship trophy. So many of yao’s and Tmacs years wouldnt have been wasted.
But hindsight is always 20/20.
The one area that CD might have something on Morey is the trades.
Now, jury’s still out on this, but it’s possible (though not likely) that Morey is so good at evaluating and signing underrated/chemistry guys that he isn’t willing to trade a glut of them for less than their value to upgrade a position. After all, value guys aren’t that valuable if they’re in RGV or on the bench.
For example: if CD had 4 pure power forwards (not counting Andersen and Jeffries, who could also play it) I don’t doubt that CD would move them even at a discount if he saw an opportunity. Not saying that Morey won’t, but he hasn’t yet. And not even sure if that’s necessarily the best move, but it sure looks like it from the armchair.
hmmmm
CD traded Robert Horry for Sean Elliott.
Strike 1 even though it was rescinded.
CD traded Robert Horry for the corpse of Charles Barkley.
Strike 2.
CD then traded for Scottie Pippen, though I swear that never happened.
Strike 3.
And yet he has a “CD” in the rafters. What a joke.
I forgot about the Horry / Elliot trade. Good point.
by ClutchFanSince94 on Jul 28, 2010 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions
If our starting five were Tony Parker, Kevin Martin, Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph, and Yao Ming
and had Brooks, and Scola off the bench- that would be scary.
No Layups
Doesn't sound that great to me.
A typical box score for that team goes like this:
Houston: 121
Lakers: 257
Seriously though, Martin and Gay are possibly the WORST defenders at their respective positions. Z Bo and Parker aren’t exactly great either. Luis and Aaron aren’t great defenders either leaving only Yao as a defensive presence on this team.
"I am from one of the top 15 cities in the world. Buffalo, New York." - TrentEdwardsHoF2018
by Artest4Prez on Jul 28, 2010 10:25 AM CDT up reply actions
LOL. Agreed wit ya.
Also Gay and Randolph aren’t team players. Not enough basketball brains to pass or make plays for others. These fellas are 2-3 assist a game players for a reason.
Golden State Warriors 2.0 ftw!
"voted for the Jazz"
ooooh, that’s like being a pedophile – it never goes away. //grudgedave//
by ressaliance_00 on Jul 28, 2010 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions
I was thinking about during this awhile back but never got around to it.
If we could have rashard lewis and michael redd and gilbert arenas. Add yao later on mann holdup.
CD did a great job,
but Don Chaney does not get the credit he deserves. And yes I know Chaney was a coach, what I mean is Rudy T was the coach who won the titles, but Chaney was the coach right before him who could not get us over the hump. And that first championship team was his team.
by since86rocketsfan on Jul 28, 2010 11:47 AM CDT reply actions
Rudy vs. Shane
“What marks the CD years isn’t just the spectacular blunders (…trading Rudy Gay for Battier…)”
I’m not sure that trading Rudy Gay for Shane Battier is a spectacular blunder (or even a little blunder for that matter). Shane’s defensive tenacity and the hustle he brings to every play are the heart and soul of the team. He has a higher career APG and 3P% than Rudy, which is what this team needs.
I only have one problem with this
What marks the CD years isn’t just the spectacular blunders (passing up Rashard Lewis 3 times, trading Rudy Gay for Battier
By 2006 Daryl Morey was making more of the decisions in the front office than CD was. At least that’s what I’ve read. And by the looks of this trade (doesn’t it look very Daryl Moreyish to you?) Dawson most definitely did not think of this one. So if you want to call this a “blunder” call it Morey’s and I don’t think anyone would do that.
Now I’m a huge Battier fan so I know I’m coming from a slightly biased position, but at the time, given Battier’s age, 26 I believe, and defensive prowess. this trade is not a blunder. It was a great move by DM or CD whomever it was. Battier fits the locker room. He’s a great leader. Plays within his abilities. Can shot the corner 3. He’s obviously a terrific defender (something Gay is not). And he helps the team in more ways than just scoring the ball a lot. I don’t need to go into what Battier can do, we all know what he can do.
Gay can score the ball and rebound a little. He can’t assist, doesn’t play defense and shoots the long ball pretty poorly (34% career). I personally would rather have Battier on my team than Gay any day.
"voted for the Jazz"
ooooh, that’s like being a pedophile – it never goes away. //grudgedave//
by ressaliance_00 on Jul 28, 2010 12:46 PM CDT reply actions
Battier Trade was not a blunder
I think Battier’s contributions are not well recognized, and I am convinced that he was a key contributor to whatever success that the team had in the last four years.
I notice the distinct difference that he (and Hayes) makes on the defensive end of the floor, and also to keep young players such as Brooks, Lowry, and Landry to play within the system, and keyed the defense.
Anyone with quantitative expertise who can back me up? (or disabuse me of my beliefs:-))
Remember
at the end of the year Battier got injured. Our defense was suffering as it was before he went down, but does any one remember just how atrocious it was afterward? You don’t notice it when he’s out there, but the second he’s gone it’s like a defensive black-hole popped up at of nowhere.
He really does more we give him credit for.
"voted for the Jazz"
ooooh, that’s like being a pedophile – it never goes away. //grudgedave//
by ressaliance_00 on Jul 28, 2010 7:15 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree
The Gay-Battier trade was not a blunder, regardless of who made it. Right now, today, I would rather have Gay but Battier has played very well for the last few seasons, which is what Houston wanted. Houston never expected him to last forever. And had Yao and Tmac remained healthy and able to put up the points, Battier might have an NBA championship. Houston never lost because of Battier.
+1, also if anyone remembers,
the season right after the battier/gay trade, Grizzlies reallly stunk it up. i think they only lost battier but from a bad team, they got worse. Thats speaks volume of Shanes influence on that team, and how important he is. Also shane is a team player, and is cheap compared to Gay (this guy is a toxic contract in the makings).
hey if he gets 25+ pnts a game,
with is amazing 3 asists, 2-3 boards a game for the next 6 years, it can be debated whether his max deal was bad or not. Remember its the 1st max deal set so i think it tops off at 17 mil?
I hope he does
do well. I really liked him at UConn and I felt that he had superstar potential. He still has time.
GO ROCKETS, GO TEXANS, GO ASTROS (EVEN THOUGH THEY SUCK)!!!
You are bashing gay because as a rookie he didnt have as much of an impact as prime battier?
Battier is a terrific player and I love having him on our team, but I wouldnt call trading him for Gay a stunning success.
At best I would say its dead even.
Battier is far from a number 3 on the team.
Gay is a decent number 1 and would be a terrific 2 or 3.
Having Rudy Gay next to tmac and Yao would have changed the entire way the team plays.
When yao goes down tmac would still have a decent number 2 option to go to.
ur only looking at one dimension of a player,
Gays scoring ability. If your gona be a winning player u need to do other things too, rebound, pass, play defense, and/or leadership. You may put Rudy on other teams and may not have a big impact in the win column even tho hes still averaging 20+ pnts a game. Shane will help ur team get more wins regardless of his stats.
I really dont see why some of our players get passes where others dont.
Gay is the type of guy we hope brooks will grow into – just from the pg position.
Kevin martin is a similar player. Granted he draws fouls but the reason we brought him in was so that he can score.
If rudy gay was on our team everyone would be screaming and shouting about how terrific a player he is.
He would also probably have more success on the rockets with a much stronger supporting cast.
I'm not exactly intot he brooks and martin cult niether tbh.
I think they are pretty good players, but I’m not 100% sure they are made of winning materials. But I really do feel like a lot of our success is due to Shane, and if we didn’t have him these past years we would be in a bad state. He is like Fisher is to the Lakers, on the court his presence may not be as big, but off the court ,in the locker rooms, they keep the team together. They lead the team.
You may disagree but I’ve watched enough basketball to realize its not just about stats, and leadership goes a long way in the NBA.
Would you rather have Fisher or Rudy Gay?
by ClutchFanSince94 on Jul 28, 2010 7:16 PM CDT up reply actions
is that really fair?
comparing a 34-35 year old and 25 year old player? Its like asking would u want shaq or howard.
Mostly it's effeciency/cost-effective
Rudy is 6-8 230 athletic body that should contribute on more facet of the game than he is currently, which is a scorer that take volumes of shots. Few starting 3s in the league defend as poorly as him, and astoundingly he has never improved in 4 years. Look at the other guys that’s paid his money in his position, and almost all of them are more versatile and complete as a player
Gay is good ... no doubt
But the trade was not made this season. At the time it was made, Gay was an unknown. Battier was known. You knew what you were getting with Battier and it fit well with what the Rockets felt they needed at that time (at a time when they thought they had a healthy Tmac & Yao). Judging a trade in hindsight is illogical. Judege it based on what was known at the time it was made. The Battier-Gay trade was reasonable for both teams. The Rockets were on the verge of being contenders THEN. At that time, Memphis was building (cannot say rebuilding since they never were built in the first place). TODAY — this season, I wish we had Gay. He would fit in very well on the current Rockets.
You would really
want Gay, today, with Brooks and Martin running our backcourt? I mean they might be the most explosive backcourt in the league, but they’re terrible defenders.
Then you want to add Gay to that mix? So 1-3 you have three absolute defensive liabilities? That would be the worst thing to happen to this team if we undid that 06 trade.
"voted for the Jazz"
ooooh, that’s like being a pedophile – it never goes away. //grudgedave//
by ressaliance_00 on Jul 29, 2010 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions
"Rudy Gay sucks"
lmao..great argument
I found 83 cents in my backyard after last night's party..I'm not returning it until the owner describes what coins were lost in EXACT change. -Willie White's status
by chuckhayesALLSTAR2010 on Jul 28, 2010 7:35 PM CDT up reply actions
oh, I thought it was patently obvious by now
He’s far too inefficient to be a decent offensive option, and he doesn’t do anything else. All he does is shoot, and he does so relatively poorly. And that will probably never change.
Not all that obvious
The general opinion of NBA teams regarding Gay is much better than yours so it must not be all that obvious.
Good point
I should say that it is obvious to anyone who is paying attention.
And, no, most GMs aren’t really paying attention. That’s why their teams suck.
I am intrigued by your position and wish to learn more.
Also, let’s not forget, how many people would be happy to have GAY tattooed across the back of a Rockets jersey?
I'm always right, this isn't conjecture, merely statement of fact.
not to mention at the time we had head
We’d love announcer to sputtering out for some “Gay-Head Combo”
Rudy Gay
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/4136
Rudy Gay’s stats are generally 20ppg and 6 boards at around 45% shooting. We got 10ppg and 5 boards in return. As awesome a leader and defender as Battier is, that is a bad trade. Don’t get me wrong, Battier is awesome and its an unfair comparison but CD made the trade so they will, of course, be compared and that trade graded on its merits.
If that isn’t convincing, how about Kyle Lowry or Rajon Rondo? Both are better than Eddie Griffin and both were passed over by CD.
by ClutchFanSince94 on Jul 28, 2010 7:15 PM CDT reply actions
You just can't look at ppg and rpg
to determine the value of a player. In one sense, yes, we left 10 ppg on the table when we traded Gay for Battier. But think beyond black-and-white, what- you-see-on-the-stats-sheet terms. If there is one thing we’ve learned about Battier it’s that it’s not about the stats with him. Need I point you towards the rather infamous “No Stats All-Star” article?
Battier is the ideal team player. He puts in the hours. He prepares for every game, every match-up like it’s against Kobe and Lebron. He’s a leader on and off the court. Gives 110%. And let’s not kid ourselves. The guy’s got talent, defensive talent. I think he’s still a top 5 perimeter defender in the league.
And don’t underestimate leadership and locker-room presence. What makes the Rocket’s so easy to rout for? It’s that they are a good group of guys. Battier is a big part of why the chemistry on the team is so good. I’m not saying Rudy Gay is a bad person or anything, but Battier’s definitely more mature.
"voted for the Jazz"
ooooh, that’s like being a pedophile – it never goes away. //grudgedave//
by ressaliance_00 on Jul 28, 2010 7:28 PM CDT up reply actions
No stats all star
I really think people are taking this thing too far.
Im not denying that battier is a good valuable player, but this no stats all star thing is ridiculous.
Battier is a terrific defensive player. When we traded for him he had prime value, and im sure has been instrumental in being making us the team that allstars have bad days against.
But no stats all star is not some magical term that automatically prooves his worth against every other player.
Its become a something that people just fling out there without any thought as to what it actually means.
I can just imagine people going out and saying No i dont want Lebron James I would rather have Battier. Battier is just as valuable as Lebron his stats just dont show up on the sheet.
I agree. You NEED utility players who are the glue that hold the team together. Mario Elie was the perfect example. However, you don’t trade an all-star caliber guard for the utility player no matter how overachieving that player is. This is NOT a knock on Battier. He is the consumate team player and professional and it is a huge credit to him that Memphis was able to get a 20 ppg scorer in exchange in basically a straight up swap.
by ClutchFanSince94 on Jul 28, 2010 8:36 PM CDT up reply actions
But the only reason Gay is getting 20ppg
is he’s in Memphis on an pretty crappy team. If Battier was still there he’d be around the 18pt mark. Remember he was scoring well with them. Its more what the team wants/needs then anything… Here we don’t need 15/20 pts per night out of him just 8 is fine
Thank god we are past the Rafer Years
well
the fact that he is averaging that many points on a fairly talented starting 5 is very impressive. Except for Conley they have serious offensive fire power. They only thing holding them back is pg play.
GO ROCKETS, GO TEXANS, GO ASTROS (EVEN THOUGH THEY SUCK)!!!
well...
it’s more than that. Z-bo is a well known play stopper and they have a raw bench
i think the bench will play better this season
with Thabeet and Young improving but that is very true. Z-bo does do a nice Artest impression and the bench was nonexistent.
GO ROCKETS, GO TEXANS, GO ASTROS (EVEN THOUGH THEY SUCK)!!!
Good post
way too many people out there that aren’t acknowledging all your information, with the poor drafting and free agent signings.
Wish I could slap everyone that says “BUT CD HAS 2 RINGS! DM HAS ZERO!”
by goingforthecorner on Jul 28, 2010 9:14 PM CDT reply actions
so..
he doesn’t?
I found 83 cents in my backyard after last night's party..I'm not returning it until the owner describes what coins were lost in EXACT change. -Willie White's status
by chuckhayesALLSTAR2010 on Jul 28, 2010 9:28 PM CDT up reply actions
CD was not GM when they the Rockets got their two rings. He didn’t draft Olajuwon as you suggested earlier. Please ignore chuckhayesALLSTAR2010. He is upset that I mocked his article about how he saw a Ron Artest “look-alike” at the gym.
by ClutchFanSince94 on Jul 28, 2010 10:07 PM CDT up reply actions
If it were today and not years ago
Then everybody would take Gay over Battier. Right now Gay is the better player. Back then, Battier was a better fit for what the Rockets wanted to do. And Gay was probably better for what Memphis wanted back then. At the time of the trade, the Rockets were thinking THIS SEASON and Memphis was thinking 4-5 YEARS IN THE FUTURE. Had Yao and Tmac remained healthy, Battier would have been a starter and important piece on an NBA championship team.
Well that's actually kind of true
if regardless of financial situation(ie his max contract), Rudy Gay is younger, more athletic, and has a higher ceiling and every GM would take him over Battier. People forget that Rocket was targeting Brandon Roy the whole time that year(and to be fair I’d take Roy over both of these guys), but Kahn decided Randy Foye is so awesome, that they decided to work a deal with Portland to draft Roy for them. Also the rockets were sick of that albatross of a failed project Stromile Swift
If Rudy Gay made the same realization Josh Smith did a year ago that his athleticism are better suited for the paint/help defense and 3 pointers are not his game, then he will actually be worth his contract
but again thats all speculation on gay.
atm he is just a bulk shooter on a crappy team. His stats are inflated as mentioned before. IF he becomes more like Josh Smith on the defensive end, hell i’d admit maybe I’d take him over shane retrospectively. But as it now I would still take Shane. Leadership is a quality no one can measure on paper, but always underestimated. Talent gets you no where without leadership. Probably one of the reasons Atlanta fell apart in the playoffs with that very talented roster. Lack of quality leadership.
Atlanta
is quite unfortunately poorly constructed with a bunch of 6-9 athletic guys (a team full of lesser version of Lebron), Bibby is quite the veteran leader and Joe Johnson has his own experience, but overall, the team is still a mismatch nightmare, it’s dangerous when it works, but it also hurts them…
As for Rudy Gay making that realization, it’s more fantasy than speculation, there arent any positive influence on that team that would prompt him to do so, it took Mike Woodson years of painstaking work to mold Josh Smith into what he is now(so sad he got fired, He did wonders transforming that team slowly but surely into a good team)
Atl
I really thought they would go to eastern conference finals last year with that athletic super freak, roster. They had great defense during reg season, and just beasts in hortford and smith on the glass. Not to take anything away from the Cs but Atl shoulda at least taken that series to game 7 with their talent compared to Boston.
I'm with ya man
For me the Battier trade was one of those things you do again if the opportunity presented itself. We have enough offensive firepower as it is and Battier is really the driving force behind our defense and the reason we’ve maintained such a professional ethos in Houston. He’s the guy that makes your team stick together, does all that’s required to win, and though his stats won’t reflect it, GMs love the guy because he’s that pinch of salt in a desert recipe, he heightens everything around him but you’ll never notice he’s doing perhaps one of the most important jobs in your recipe.
I'm always right, this isn't conjecture, merely statement of fact.
+1
never underestimate the value of Battier
at the beginning of last season, with Yao out, Battier could have easily been used to bring in a better big man than Chuck but we didn’t trade him
he brings actual intelligence, great D and just the right personality to help a team. Don’t trade him just to get some highlight reel player.
Shane is awesome….even with his relatively older age, he still brings a ton to the team.
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