Basic Stats Primer: Kevin Martin vs. Tracy McGrady
by Tom Martin on Aug 1, 2010 1:52 AM CDT
in Player Analysis
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Print(The off-season has officially entered its boring stages, so it's time to talk about something less boring: statistics! You will all feel smarter for joining the Dark Side, trust me).
As the Rockets enter their first full season with Kevin Martin at the 2-guard position, I'd like to make a simple comparison using Martin and his predecessor at the position, Tracy McGrady.
We keep hearing how efficient a player Martin is. He's not flashy, but he's apparently supposed to be "efficient." Less fun to watch, but more effective on the offensive end. Is this true? Is Martin a better offensive player than McGrady? Since shooting is the most important statistic on offense, we will look at each player's shooting statistics.
Here are Martin's and McGrady's career field goal percentages (rounded to second decimal):
Martin: 45%
McGrady: 44%
Well, that sucked. Not much to write home about, because they shoot basically the same percentage. Thanks for wasting my time.
Not so fast, my friend. The numbers lie, at least these numbers do.
In this case, disregard FG%. Actually, in most cases, disregard FG%. It's not a good statistic to evaluate shooting. Why is that? Because it leaves out a few crucial factors:
1. FG% does not take into account the value of the shot being taken. Players such as Martin or Jason Kapono see their FG% fall because they shoot more three-point shots, which are tougher shots to make. eFG% (effective field goal percentage) is the correct statistic to use here. It correctly identifies the added value of a made three-point shot.
Let's take a look at Martin's and McGrady's career eFG% (rounded to second decimal):
Martin: 51%
McGrady: 47%
Martin correctly is allotted bonus points for his effectiveness behind the arc. However telling this may be, we can't stop here.
2. FG% only looks at field goals. It does NOT account for field goals and free throws. So why should FG% automatically be the measuring stick for shooting ability? Dunno. You tell me.
Many players with low field goal percentages still manage to play efficiently because they are able to get to the free throw line. Chauncey Billups is a good example. He doesn't shoot a good percentage from the field, but his ability to make his free throws must count for something. Conversely, a player like McGrady may shoot a decent percentage from the field, but his missed free throw opportunities can destroy a possession.
While eFG% measures two-point shots and three-point shots, TS% (true shooting percentage) measures the aforementioned numbers as well as free throws. This is the appropriate statistic to use when comparing shooters.
Let's take a look at Martin's and McGrady's career TS% (rounded to second decimal):
Martin: 60%
McGrady: 52%
Reggie Miller: 61%
Clearly, Martin's ability to get to the free throw line bumps his percentages up higher than most, and nearly to the level of one of the best shooters in NBA history, Reggie Miller.
When it comes to shooting, the key element of offensive ability, Kevin Martin reigns comfortably over Tracy McGrady. Does this cover one's ability to carry an offense? We'll discuss that another day. At my current posting rate, that may not be until late October. Heh.
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NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
T-MAC > KEVIN MARTIN
LOOK AT PASSING AND REBOUNDING AND NO TURNOVERS AND DEFENSEEEEEEEE.
Don’t make T-Mac look bad. :(
/end necessary rant
I wonder how other scorers like Lebron or Wade compare to Kevin Martin in TS and EFG. Martin is a much better shooter than any of them will ever be. Offensively, it shoudln’t matter too much since apart from Ariza, all the starters can create their own shot consistently and Martin healthy creates a lot of space.
Great post!
I hope to see more analysis like this…
by PurplePeopleEaters on Aug 1, 2010 5:29 AM CDT reply actions
Liek oh em jee!
didnt u no that tmac can had bad back and a sniffle his hole kareer so its jenetic! T-Mac is teh better playr foo! He just had bad nites cuz of his bak and sumtimez teh moon wuzn’t rite in teh sky, and jenetics, and diarrhea! HAYTR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That was painful to type. Now that I’m not mocking McGrady, good right up and it explains something I’ve felt for a bit. I really look forward to the discussion of carrying on offense as I believe Martin adequately can do it. I’m with VBG in that I even feel almost all of our starters can create their own offense, even Ariza to an extent, though clearly Trevor is better off a screen than off a dribble.
I'm always right, this isn't conjecture, merely statement of fact.
Do these stats put into account his past two seasons?
Cause those last two seasons were injury and coming back from injury
tmac is still the better "closer" imo
shop smart, shop S-mart.....YOU GOT THAT!
At first, i was confused with the
term “closer,” then i realized you meant .. one who would close out the season with an injury and, i guess, you’re right.
by typhoon.infamous on Aug 1, 2010 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions
i think he's being sarcastic...
by basketball is cool on Aug 1, 2010 4:16 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Lets let Peter Griffin's foreign coworker explain that to you.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKgiC1IOdg4
The BANHAMMER delivers the real justice
That's just turrible
T-Mac was better when he was healthy....but
what were his stats for the past 2 yrs. He is not the same player before the major injuries…bottom line. If he wasn’t injured, we wouldn’t even be discussing this thread and the Rox would have at least 1 title.
Depends on job description
If you want your shooting guard,to,um,shoot,Kevin Martin is a far superior player.Much more consistent on his shot and early on learned if you shoot 80% from FT line,getting fouled 10 times gets you more points than shooting 50% from 3pt line.
McGrady’s FG% did take a hit because he coud always jack up some shot when the shot clock was expiring-and was often asked to do so.(Taking a bad shot still allows for chance of offensive rebound,where a 24 second violation never does.After McGrady opted for his surgery,the Rockets would routinely have several 24 second violations where the McGrady Rockets rarely did.)
If you want your SG to create for others,McGrady is vastly superior. Martin has never ave’d as much as 3 assists a game and surpassing 2.5 assists/game once. McGrady ave’d 3.3 this past season playing w/all the mobility of a senior citizen waiting for his hip replacement in less than 23 minutes/game.
McGrady’s assists totals were negatively impacted by how often he’d pass inside to Rocket bigs at rim,who were then fouled to prevent dunks.(There’s a reason Morey claimed a few yrs ago McGrady created more open looks for teammates than any other player. And following season said he was still near the top.)
@ 4 seasons ago I added points from assists(adjusted for rest of teams’ 3pt makes percentage of made baskests)to points scored and divided by minutes played. Top 3 players in League at creating points…Nash(1.57),McGrady(1.2),Kobe(1.1). No one else cracked the point/minute mark.
As to defense which is worse,a player who can’t defend very well or a player who could but rarely tries to? McGrady gives better defensive rebounding(small sample but Martin’s rebounding took a big dip in his 24 Hou games),a touch more steals and an occasional blocked shot more. Off eyeball memory,Martin draws charges significantly better.
Either way,it’s not like they are/were asked to guard the other team’s best players too often.
On defense it’s whether they can prevent the other teams lesser skilled offensive player from going off. Eyeball memory suggests Martin has some problems there.
But of course this is all just a fun debate. Reality is we aren’t talking about whether we could have a 27 yr old Martin or a 27 yr old McGrady. Given today’s choice between Martin and a 31 yr old severely hobbled McGrady…
In the abstract,if you want your SG to be a shooter,Martin is the better player. If you need/want your SG to be playmaker who creates for others a healthy McGrady would be the choice.
W/Martin the Rockets are a good team,put the McGrady from first half of decade on the team and they’d be a great team.
by Tisbee on Aug 1, 2010 9:53 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I agree with everything posted here. Especially the last paragraph.
Unless Yao magically becomes a Dwight Howard level center, I don’t see us as a championship contendor. However, if we had a prime T-Mac, then a mediocre Yao would be enough. It would have been interesting if we had current Brooks a knock down 3 point shooter and a tougher Scola in 07.
I like how MArtin fits in with the team though. However, if Yao isn’t back at a great level I feel like it’s pointless.
And about Yao near DWight level. Orlando is considered a championship contendor but the Rockets are equal or better at pretty much every position and bench. We just need the superstar.
Interesting
What is the formula for efg%? That would just be good info to have.
by ClutchFanSince94 on Aug 1, 2010 10:00 AM CDT reply actions
There's also a case to be made on shot clock usage
42% of Martins shots comes within 10 sec or less of clock usage, and he had never had less, while only about 36% of Tmac’s shot comes with in 10 second or less as a Rocket. While it’s true that T-mac plays the facilitator role more often and was by far the best slasher, it also mean T-mac has the tendency to dominate the ball(actually much of his game requires it), but as far shooting goes, Kevin Martin by far is the more efficient player
that’s a really good point. if it takes a lot of time to get your shot off then that is more time to make a turnover or for the defense to get settled in and defensive rebounders to get in place. also, it causes more last second wild attempts. I didn’t even know that stat existed. excellent contribution
by ClutchFanSince94 on Aug 1, 2010 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah 82games has it
You’ll be surprised how much basketball stats are kept over the years. There’s also raw data for those ambitious enough to make a shot chart heat map for a single player, which i’d assume T-mac’s will consist of 20 footers, 3s and layups (in that order), while Kmart will have 3s / 20-15 footers
by NVP on Aug 1, 2010 6:43 PM CDT up reply actions
What does that mean 10 seconds overall for the team as in 14 seconds on the shot clock or 10 seconds in the players hands?
by VBG on Aug 1, 2010 6:55 PM CDT up reply actions
it's often
Early shots, or quick shots like 14 second left on the clock when shots leave his hand. while that sounds awful, it really isnt. It means active transition baskets and other easy opportunity occurs often, also in the ase of Kevin Martin, it means he gets open early. I believe the stat you’re looking for is touches/possession time which requires more raw data than I care to analyze and collect(i’m not paid to do this), but If had to guess Kevin Martin’s possession time/touch would be much lower since Kevin martin is a much worse ball handler but the superior shooter.
I also have to say, Coaching philosophy also will impact stats like shot clock usage
But that could also mean that T-Mac is forced to take a lot of bad shots late in shot clocks.
by VBG on Aug 2, 2010 3:34 AM CDT up reply actions
That only partially true
Both Martin takes around 7~9% of their shot late in shot clocks(21+sec) (though Mac is the better shooter in that situation, and if pull up attempts T-mac might have more attempts), and about 20 % of their shot in the 16~20 sec range, However T-mac has the tendency to take more early possession developing shots around 11~15 seconds which is roughly the time it takes for a set pick and pop shot or an isolation play
The distinction is T-mac often calls and sets the play up for himself(isolation or calling for a Yao Ming pick), while Kevin Martin often actively run through screen/back screens for others to set him up which often is a quicker shot, and Kevin Martin is a much better early possession shooter than T-mac, which mean he shoot the bulk of his shots where he’s the most effective. T-mac is pretty much the same anytime, but you can see his percentages decrease over the years
by NVP on Aug 2, 2010 8:15 AM CDT up reply actions
The problem for Martin is his defense..
Is he gonna have to guard Kobe if he plays? Normally Battier guards Kobe, but Battier will come off the bench now since Martin is a starter.
Then Ariza will guard Kobe, LeBron, etc . . .
Trevor is a lockdown defender, and we can play effectively on the offensive AND defensive end by tag-teaming Martin / Ariza, followed with Budinger / Battier. I am not afraid of Martin guarding Artest, namely because our wing defenders can force Kobe into dishing bad assists to guys like Artest, who are better spotting up than they are on the dribble.
Also, we have never seen Martin play with the kind of defensive presence of Battier, Ariza AND Yao. He hardly got to play with Shane, and of course Yao. I genuinely think, with our team mantra and coaching staff, that we will see Brooks and Martin evolve into capable team defenders.
Wafer . . . again. (Marv Albert, HOU v. CLE Feb 2009)
-one of the FEW at Toyota Center who has the Wafer jersey
yea
The main thing to have a great TEAM defensive plan. As long as our defense is top 10 then matchups become less relavent because face it, Kobe is the only person in the league capable of scoring damn near all the points himself. Besides, we forget that people have to guard AB and Martin as well which would soften the players they have to guard a little. AB is the best SCORING PG in the west and K-mart is the 3rd best SG in the West behind Kobe and Brandon Roy ( I think injuries and age have slowed down Manu).
GO ROCKETS, GO TEXANS, GO ASTROS (EVEN THOUGH THEY SUCK)!!!
agreed one hundred percent
I would type more but I don’t have internet at my new place yet and I am on my droid…
I'm always right, this isn't conjecture, merely statement of fact.
by BD34 on Aug 1, 2010 8:01 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Ellis is not a better shooter or scorer than Martin
and he is an equally bad defender
he only benefits form Nellie’s system
by NVP on Aug 2, 2010 5:53 PM CDT up reply actions
Also tyrek evans?
BUt yeah i agree we have one of the top backcourts in the game, and if we can figure out a way to rotate well and hide their inefficencies on defense we are near unstoppable.
Evans is really a SG
wade was a pg his 1st season as well as LBJ and then when they got good coaches they were put in their correct positions so yea I stand by my statement
GO ROCKETS, GO TEXANS, GO ASTROS (EVEN THOUGH THEY SUCK)!!!
you have to disregard all guards of Nelson
because under him, it’s all guard created chaos
by NVP on Aug 2, 2010 5:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Watching Curry play at Davidson during the tourney
was amazing. He carried that team the entire tourney ,i think, to the elite 8. Obvious college play and nba doesn’t necessary have much correlations. But he was still impressive. As a UCLA alumn, I would actually love to have darren collison on our team. Plays great defense for his frame, showed he can be a poor mans cp3 when cp3 was gone for those months. I mean hell collison had to play 40+ mins every game, and sometimes the full 48 mins due to NOs lack of depth.
Good feedback, folks
As stated, this post only discusses shooting. McGrady is the better passer, rebounder and defender, at least he was during his better days. The shot clock usage point is a good one – Martin doesn’t use up too much time on a possession.
The Dream Shake ...on Twitter.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak
K-Mart is the better shooter between the two
But McGrady just had a special and rare all around game that doesn’t come around too often.
GO ROCKETS, GO TEXANS, GO ASTROS (EVEN THOUGH THEY SUCK)!!!
Who is the better offensive player?
I think it’s pretty clear that Martin has always been the better shooter. I see him as a high scoring, high efficiency role player – BUT a role player nonetheless.
A healthy McGrady in his prime (last time we saw this was… 5 years ago?) destroys Kevin Martin in overall offensive production. T-Mac passing abilities and court vision were pretty much second to none, and still allowed him to be an effective player when he was fighting injuries (which led to his shooting % decline). While the cliche gets tiresome, T-Mac really could impose his will on the game and carry his teammates to victories. I do not see that quality in Martin.
If Yao went down, could Martin “carry” the team, be the focal point of the offense, and be able to pass as well as McGrady when he drew double teams? Probably not. I do not see Martin helping the Rockets continue a winning streak to 22 games after Yao’s injury in 2008. We saw this year we were 14-15 with Martin playing.
Comparing the 2005 Rockets to the 2011 Rockets, the production we will get at the SG position this year will be less. That says a lot more about how awesome T-Mac was in 2005 than it does about what we’ll expect from Martin this upcoming season.
by goingforthecorner on Aug 2, 2010 12:48 PM CDT reply actions
I don't know man
I remember the team in Sac with Bibby, Artest, and Martin really taking it to the Spurs in the play-offs (I forget the year). The think is I am not sure who the head of that snake was that season. Martin may not be able to just put a team on him back like a true superstar but his scoring ability and getting to the FT line could really ease the pain. AB I think has that ability and with the Help of K-Mart in the backcourt I think together they could will the team for stretches.
GO ROCKETS, GO TEXANS, GO ASTROS (EVEN THOUGH THEY SUCK)!!!
It is true
That mac is the better player, but he couldnt impose his will at will the way kobe n wade or even lebron does , or else he’d found his way out of the first round a while ago.
In fact if there’s anything i’d knock tmac’s game on, would be tendency to take unforced bad shots
by NVP on Aug 2, 2010 2:51 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Dang I double posted
That’s because Lebron got cocky and decided the he could should, he used to dominate with layups, but then again Mike Brown got over reliant on lebron iso plays for him to use that quick step and physique to his advantage
by NVP on Aug 2, 2010 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions
well lets face it, who else on that cav team can take the last shot?
The 2nd best player was Mo williams, and then a 31 year old Antwain Jameson.
not what i meant
Brown does plays Lebron vs 5 usual all second half, which makes it predictable as hell
by NVP on Aug 2, 2010 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions
i seee.
so do you think mike brown was an overrated coach then? Since he had lbj to carry his team in regular season 1 v 5. But then come playoff time, he couldn’t coach shit against the SVG, or Doc Rivers.
Doc is a great coach
but coaching a team with talent disparity like that is hard, Doc himself tried with T-mac, and he was over reliant on T-mac as well. Mike Brown is a good coach, you can see it through his team defense, but he lack creativity on offense. It’s the same knock JVG gets, but Mike Brown had to do a lot of bridging between Lebron and the managment, and i dont know how much influence he actually had on player selection
by NVP on Aug 2, 2010 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions
At the end of this saga lebron james didn't wanna play for mike brown,
and so mike brown was axed. Really wonder how far he can take a team in this league. Defensive is definitely key to a title contender, but you need an offense to back it up. The droughts for JVG teams was devastating in the playoffs. The New York knicks with all that offensive talent (Allan Houston, Laterel Sprewell, Charlie Ward, Patrick Ewing, Larry Johnson), and our Rockets (Tmac and Yao).
but at the same time it's why i respect Doc so much
He could have put all the weight of the world on the big 3 and live and die through them, he’ll probably still win one but no chance he makes it back again and again. Instead he coached a stiffing defense anchor by Garnett’s mobility and Rondo’s quickness and makes that team so tough.
I’ll be interested on what kind of team emerges in Miami
by NVP on Aug 2, 2010 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions
I have a feeling,
Pat Riley will take over next year if this year they fail to make it to the Eastern Conference Finals. Pat Riley likes his rings as a coach and loves talent. I do not know anything about the current coach Erik Spoelstra.
It is true
That mac is the better player, but he couldnt impose his will at will the way kobe n wade or even lebron does , or else he’d found his way out of the first round a while ago.
In fact if there’s anything i’d knock tmac’s game on, would be tendency to take unforced bad shots
by NVP on Aug 2, 2010 2:51 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
He imopsed his will pretty well in most matches. In the playoffs he choked a little bit but generally he played well. I mean even when he scored 40 points on 50% shooting his team still managed to lose by 20 points.
by VBG on Aug 2, 2010 8:10 PM CDT up reply actions
yeah but that was an awful game over all
I mean real ugly
Martin is an improvement - no doubt
If both players were healthy and in their prime, I think any GM in the league would take Tmac over Martin. That isn’t the question. Martin is an improvement over a lame Tmac. No doubt about that. That is what really matters. The Rockets now have an excellent starting SG. In fact, the Rockets have excellent strength at starters for both guard postions, Scola at PF and Yao (if healthy) at C. The weak link is at SF. Hopefully, with all these other guys able to score, Ariza won’t be tossing up so many bricks. If not asked to score, Ariza and Battier are excellent too. Sure wish the season would start.
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