Lockout, Lottery, and Lovely Lady Lumps
by BD34 on Jun 18, 2011 10:20 AM CDT
in Random Commentary
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PrintAlright, so this post has been delayed by my whole "professional career and school" thing picking back up but these things happen. I was also told when I got this gig to make the titles something that would increase traffic to the site, so I'm pandering shamelessly there. I’m not all that keen on the draft because I feel like college basketball is roughly two players surrounded by 20 far less talented players trying to figure out what’s going on. I just know that whenever Euros shoot up the mock draft charts the way they have lately it’s never a good sign for the strength of a draft class. I don’t want to beat a dead horse with the talk of what Dallas’s win means for the Rockets (Team > Individual stars is my synopsis, take heart my Houston friends). So I figure why not address Rockets needs heading into the offseason with a list of who is available and what the NFL lockout could mean for the NBA.
The current roster is stacked with talent but it is necessary to scrounge up just how much. If we break this down by position we can shed some light on where the focus for upgrades should be.
Point Guard – Kyle Lowry, Goran Dragic.
This position is pretty well set with Dragic happy to be a back up and putting up a triple double in his last game of the season. Kyle Lowry needs to continue playing as well as he did (or nearly) in the second half. If his progress wasn’t an aberration we have a legitimate elite point guard on our roster in Lowry. He’s entering his fifth year in the league and become a complete point guard, which is fantastic news for Houston.
Shooting Guard – Kevin Martin and Courtney Lee
Another position I feel is pretty well set but offers some of the most enticing trade discussions. The biggest question at this position is "How bad do you want it?" And no, I’m not talking about the last time your significant other thought it’d be hilarious to tease you… Kevin Martin is an alluring trade object because let’s face it, he’s the perfect complimentary player. What you get back for him is the key to the discussion because I’m fairly certain no one would gripe if Courtney Lee, one of the rare two-way players in the NBA, were to take the starting job on a rebuilding team looking to add defense to its repertoire. We’ll get to the enticing trade targets on this team at the end of this assessment.
Small Forward – Chase Budinger and Terrence Williams
This position is the most mysterious for me. We have Chase and we know what we get there, he’s a decent rebounder in my opinion, can handle the ball a bit, and his shot is sweet enough to make you the next Wilford Brimley. You know as well as I do he can attain the point of (or about) 20 points per game with minimal defense. Terrence Williams offers some tantalizing ingredients and if you’re not sold check his scouting report because it’s obvious he’s been caged up pretty well since entering the NBA http://www.nbadraft.net/players/terrence-williams. This position cries out for another player in this cog but caution if we’re looking to pull a deal. It’s confusing because it has youth and upside but there are questions as to what the ceiling on these two are.
Welcome to the cluster-freak position on the Rockets. We have the wily vet (with a backloaded contract and bum-knee) in Luis Scola, a man very nearly at 20 points and 10 boards per game. You know what you get with him and you know that he’s not blocking any shots or finishing above the rim. Patrick Patterson has shown flashes of the fact that his ceiling is a vastly superior defensive Luis Scola. He’s got a smooth shot, a powerful finish at the rim, and plays ridiculous help-side defense. I think Patterson replaces Scola ASAP (preferably day one since we should be working to trade Luis). This is Jordan’s natural position and if we draft a C, I expect to see Jordan back here. He flashed really hard that he is something special, it’s tough to re-live your rookie season and not have the time to put on the bulk to play Center then be told "Sink or swim". We did that with Jordan and he responded well, albeit slowly, in my opinion. Chuck is listed here as a formality, if he’s playing center for this team again we’re boned.
Center – Chuck Hayes, Hasheem Thabeet, Brad Miller
For all intensive purposes let’s laugh Brad Miller off this list, the 2 MPH point-center shouldn’t reasonably be considered viable in Houston anymore. Chuck Hayes, if he’s starting the position I think it’s for continuity. He’s proven how well player development works in Houston (Seriously, everyone questioning Thabeet needs to consider Chuck came into the league with defense only and he slowly put together offense and refined every facet of his game, this player development staff is fantastic here if the guys get floor time to prove it). Thabeet is a question mark and we need to evaluate what we have on tap because he has a qualifying offer coming up. I look for him to get legitimate time this year since the 2011-2012 season is as near as can be a throw away in the rebuilding process.
Now, you may not agree with my assessment of positions but our positions of solidification/guarantee are Small Forward and Center. I emphasize Small Forward more so because we have one definite at that position in Budinger and we know he’s not a long-term solution. At center we have question marks in Hasheem Thabeet and Jordan Hill in that I think they can be more than they currently are/assumed to be. The draft is rife with SGs and SFs and I think it’s easiest to address the SF issue out of the draft and still go with the Best Player Available (BPA) option. Center will be addressed/reinforced through trade or free agency but I believe we’ll still give Hasheem a shot this year.
Who is available on the free agent market in general? I will provide two lists depending on how you like to look them over. ESPN lists the free agents by team, focus on unrestricted free agents because attaining restricted free agents is incredibly difficult and rare. HoopsWorld lists them by position in a relatively mashed together way. Apparently Microsoft Word charts are rare or damn near impossible in HTML format.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=FreeAgents-11-12
http://www.hoopsworld.com/story.asp?story_id=18192 (If you see a * it means the player is essentially a RFA)
As I survey that list it’s a lot like the menu at an authentic Asian restaurant (authentic as in turtles, bugs, and the bits most Americans don’t eat are on the menu). You have a lot of options but none of it is really something you want. My only standouts are Chris Douglas Roberts and Marcus Thornton. The big men available are most likely not relocating or are on the downswing of their careers (Kenyon Martin, Andrei Kirilenko, etc…). So when it comes to free agency, I feel like we could insure ourselves in case we trade Kevin Martin because I think CDR and Marcus Thornton are completely viable options. Which brings me about to this next option on our plate.
Let’s make a deal! Not the kind of game we played last season where Ish Smith and a pack of Skittles got us Lebron James. Guys conceivably on the trade block are Kevin Martin and Luis Scola. Reports state that there is no such thing as an untouchable Rocket. I subscribe to the Animal Farm notion that no Rocket is untouchable but some are more untouchable than others.
Sacred Calves – Kyle Lowry, Courtney Lee, and Patrick Patterson
It would take a quality deal to get these guys out of Houston. Kyle’s progress was ridiculous and makes him super valuable. Courtney Lee was a hard bargain point a while ago where we tried raking Chicago over the coals and they weren’t caving. Patterson is a Scola replacement and showed the league 14 was way too low for him to go last year.
You’re Auditioning, Consider Buying – Terrence Williams, Hasheem Thabeet, Jordan Hill
All three of these guys have potential that went largely untapped/unobserved. Williams has tools at his disposal, Thabeet has that height you can’t teach and a scary good offensive game no one unwrapped ("basic" as it is, it’s scary good for a guy everyone assumed lacks the ability to walk and chew gum simultaneously), and Jordan has a keen eye for his offensive game and in post game interviews emphasized his willingness to do whatever is asked of him. He did shut down Pau Gasol solo, which was entertaining to watch.
That said, these guys are expendable in a deal and not worth demanding more from the other team. If I were them I’d audition hard this year and pay attention around the trade deadline.
Rent, Don’t Buy – Kevin Martin, Luis Scola
The elder statesmen of the team and our highly valuable players, Scola’s contract and his nagging knee problem make him tougher to move now and Kevin Martin will be in high demand because top five shooting guards are by nature limited to five. It’s abundantly clear we’re looking to develop youth and become a two-way team, neither of these guys have that but both of them can put a contender over the top. I’m hedging on Scola because I don’t believe in his knee at the present moment
Not Worth Mentioning, Cut or Safe/Unwanted by Others – Chuck Hayes, Brad Miller, Goran Dragic
When it comes to trade discussion, keep in mind what guys like those on our roster offer. The NBA draft will see a lot of chatter with Kevin Martin and Luis Scola revolving around that number two pick in Minnesota.
This could all be for naught (Free Agency evaluations) however, if the NFL Lockout comes down on the side of the players. The NFL is currently trying to reconcile salaries amongst players, revenue sharing amongst franchises, and flexibility of individual choice in employment decisions. The NBA could learn a thing or two from the way the NFL has conducted business amongst franchises though. Greater revenue sharing offers more financial viability for the organizations. Your New York markets don’t dominate everything since the money gets distributed to players (a smaller percentage versus higher percentage/stability is a sticking point in their negotiations) and organizations so that small markets (Much love to Buffalo) are nearly as viable as teams like the Giants. Revenue sharing would help ensure that teams such as the Grizzlies can compete with teams like the Lakers and their lucrative contracts. The NHL influence should impart with a hard cap and greater revenue sharing to increase competitiveness and parity around the NBA outside of fluke years like this one. I digress though.
My current terror of a player victory in NFL labor negotiations is (Granted a COURT victory, not a negotiated one) because if the players win in court then all of professional sports stands to face a labor stoppage. By nature professional sports in the US violates Anti-Trust laws. For those of you unaware of what a trust is, a trust, loosely, is a business structure where all the participants in a market set prices and rules for participation willingly and openly. That’s professional sports. Independent franchises banding together, setting limits on salaries, employment duration, and rules of employment. More accurately they are a cartel, cartels are most famously noted for Latin American drug organizations or blood diamond organizations by which you have a decentralized structure (Franchises) adhering to terms set out by one entity at the top (League office). So if the players win and professional sports leagues are deemed violation of Anti-Trust laws the only way to dodge it is with a CBA and negotiation out of court. You have to avoid setting precedent because then it becomes viable law. If the NFL players win the NBA will have to restructure itself. The MLB doesn’t face this problem as much because there is no salary cap, so one of the biggest reasons to head to court is gone. They still have the same decision structure but would you like to see an NBA like the MLB? The Knicks/Lakers finals every year until we die would have to get boring eventually, right
Well, that’s where I’ll shut up for now, I guess, I haven’t written in a while and this should be enough to dodge my responsibilities for another few weeks.
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Neither of those guys you mentioned really do it for me
Thornton might be a minor upgrade over Lee, but I don’t see them adding anything more than depth and they would be pretty expensive (esp. Thornton). They’re both mediocre defenders at best, and if you’re looking for 2-way players, they wouldn’t be the way to go. In my mind, there are tons of guys who can score in one-on-one situations like those guys but play little defense, so why waste your money when you have a guy like Courtney Lee who is a very good defender and shooter.
by Patrick Harrel on Jun 18, 2011 10:35 AM CDT reply actions
I mostly meant as far as free agents those are the only two that actually wet my appetite.
And I do think I said they would help us build depth in the case of a Kevin Martin trade.
My beingadick-butnotbeinganannoyingdick skills, they're impressive.
-TCWIR paraphrased
I stand corrected.
Touche good sir.
My beingadick-butnotbeinganannoyingdick skills, they're impressive.
-TCWIR paraphrased
Watched a lot of Sac on LP
Thorton is on short side of SGs @ 6’4". He is nowhere near as consistent as Martin and doesn’t draw fouls like Kevin. BUT…
The dude can flat out score. He is aggressive attacking rim,a killer on fast break and is not afraid to take big shots-and after trade to Sac he was making almost every clutch shot he attempted. He can get his shot off,can break down a defender on perimeter and contrary to my impressions from NO,he did a decent job setting up other Kings,often playing PG for stretches. His outside shot is streaky,but when he’s on,great range and will rip off 3-4 three’s in a heartbeat.
Catch is he’s gonna get paid. But if Martin was traded,I’d be very happy if Thorton was signed as FA so long as there was a strong defensive SF to pair him with. And yes,I’d think he’d start over Lee-Thorton is a far more explosive scorer.
Re the NFL having more parity than MLB,not so fast.
There have been 11 championships starting in 2000 in NBA,MLB,NFL.
NFL has had 15 different teams play in the game and 8 different champions.
MLB has had 14 different teams and 9 different champs in the World Series.
During that span the Red Sox and Yankees have won 4 World Series,While Pittsburg and New England have combined for 5 Super Bowl wins.
NBA has had 11 teams play for title and 6 different champs,w/Lakers and Spurs combining for 8 of them.
Re the CBA,what is often lost is NFL players get 58%,NHL after losing season agreed to players getting between 54-57% depending on revenues, The NBA currently has players getting 57% and the owners want to cut that 30%.(Current NBA CBA players share works out to a $66mil hard cap if it was distributed equally among teams. The NBA owners want a $45mil hard cap,that’s a 32% cut.)
Now it either costs a hell of a lot more to run an NBA team,or the owners should work out revenue sharing among themselves first.
And why should we face a lock-out when the NBA wants owners like the Bucks owner to make money. The guy is whining he’s lost $20mil+ this yr-the same owner who ok’d signing Maggette,Salmons and Gooden for over $23mil.
Regarding the NFL having more parity in the NFL:
Do not look to the finish line and the results, look to the mix of the playoffs. Teams ebb and flow into the playoffs and it’s often by the result of a game or two maximum of a swing between divisional opponents. We’re looking at the final game and you will generally see well-maintained franchises making it to the finish line. You also see, however, wildcard teams like the Giants coming in and dethroning the Patriots. Parity isn’t about who wins out at the end, parity is about the quality of the games played to get there. Just because a few teams consistently win does not mean there is no parity, it means there is such closeness of competition that they make a game of it. Super Bowl blowouts aren’t entirely frequent (As a Bills fan I got to witness 3 of the damn things though…). When it comes to the MLB your top spenders tend to be the guys who show up in the playoffs in the end. Flukes like the Rockies from a few years ago are rare. Top MLB payrolls tend to produce playoff teams and serious contenders.
As for the CBA, the player’s cut is pretty admirable of revenue when you consider they’re taking 57% distributed amongst them. Annually. That leaves 43% of revenue to report back to the owners. Out of that 43% the owners are responsible for keeping facilities maintained, paying player salary, travel expenses, and marketing. There are more players and percentage-wise they’re getting it spread around quite a bit but of that 43% revenue share amongst owners it’s not divided equally and quite a bit is expected to be done with that 43%. It’s natural to side with the disgruntled laborers in this dispute but it’s foolhardy if you appreciate competitive basketball.
We can crucify the owners for the horrible contracts they gave out but what shouldn’t get lost in this issue is that regardless of these mistakes it needs to get reigned in. We can act sanctimonious about it but who in their lives hasn’t stepped back from a situation, (Whether it be an argument with the misses, a trip to the casino, or a project you were working on) scratched their head, and was left saying “Well, I guess I just f*cked that up pretty good.”? Everyone has done it, the owners are realizing where they screwed up and they’re willing to re-negotiate. They have conceded guaranteed contracts so the players will have that but what are the players willing to concede? They still get definite money and duration (Better than you get in the NFL) and the owners are asking to tame the amount they request. They don’t even get the majority of the revenue share to split amongst them. The owners do need to get their s*it together about revenue sharing with each other but the players need to give up ground if they want definite contracts they need to yield the revenue share. The players want everything they have and to keep the current situation/make out with more money and the owners just want some common business sense brought to the bargaining table.
My beingadick-butnotbeinganannoyingdick skills, they're impressive.
-TCWIR paraphrased
Baltimore,Tampa Bay
baltimore has often been in top three in MLB payroll and never even sniffed the Play-Offs. Tampa Bay has been among MLBs lowest and they’ve been contenders for past few yrs. Money-ball has consistently produced good teams.
And what you call fluke teams overlooks how much harder it is to get into MLB Playoffs- 8 teams of 30 make it,versus 12 of 32.
Again 14 teams have made World Series and 9 different teams have won! That’s about as close to actual parity as you can get when 9-NINE-different teams have won the past 11 World Series.
Just spending money doesn’t do it.
Following are Opening Day team salaries of past 22 teams who made it to World Series:
NY Yankees(1,1,1,1…2 wins,2 losses)
Boston Red Sox(2,2…2 wins)
Philadelphia(7,12…1 win,1 loss)
San Fran(10,10…1 win,1 loss)
St Louis(11,11…1 win,1 loss)
Anaheim(15,W)
Arizona(8,W)
Chicago White Sox(13,W)
Colorado(25,L)
Detroit(14,L)
Florida Marlins(25,W)
Houston(12,L)
NY Mets(6,L)
Tampa Bay(29,L)
Texas(27,L)
Note that teams in the top 5 of payroll have made 6 appearances,while bottom 5 payroll teams have made 4. If “flukes” can make it to World Series over half as often as highest payroll teams,I’d say there’s plenty of parity.
Altho if I had to bet,I’ take the higher payroll team to win as they’ve won 7 of the 11 :)
Re the CBA.
As to owners having to be prevented from giving out bad contracts,which is what the owners want,WTF? What are the owners giving up? They want shorter contracts,lower salaries because…because…because…they’re losing money because of their own stupidity?
Well there is a mechanism in place-it’s called losing money. The owners simply want a bail-out from the players for their own stupidity.
There is this argument that teams have to spend more than they want to keep up w/the better teams. And it sounds great,until you run into this little thing called roster limits. It doesn’t matter how much Lakers,Boston,Knicks want to spend on salaries,they can only sign 15 players-and how many great ones are going to want to come off bench? How many good role players are going to be happy being third on the depth chart?
And we all know spending big guarantees a title-right Zeke,right Mr Alexander,right Mr Allen?
More to the point,let’s say you want to buy a new car. You know what you’re likely to make for the next few yrs and you pick the car you like the best that’s in your budget. But the guy across the street who makes 5 times what you make buys a Ferrari. Do you then rush out and buy one that you cannot possibly afford,or do you buy what you can afford while hoping all the while his car blows out its transmission?
I can accept the argument athletes are over-paid,except why does no one argue singers,actors are over-paid?They’re just playing a game,well they’re just singing.
The owners gave up on asking the players to give up what they already have-some concession! If it was key to the owners,they would have insisted on something else to go w/it. They didn’t,so it was either not that important to them,or it was a PR move,esp since the players are charging in court that the NBA is not negotiating in good faith.
The NBA is asking the players to give up $750mil. That’s $25mil a team. How many teams are losing that kind of money? The Kings allegedly lost $8mil and the Bucks are supposed to have lost $20mil+.If there were that many teams losing $25mil/yr,we’d be hearing about them.
The owners are trying to get the best of both worlds,a massive salary cut and no revenue sharing. If they want a NFL type CBA,go to NFL revenue sharing of ALL TV/Media money and sharing of ticket revenues.
You're selectively limiting your sample size in the MLB example and the more than half the high payroll teams have won it. I'm counting wins, quality of games, etc... not appearances.
As far as your view on the CBA you’re not even approaching it correctly. The purpose of meeting for a CBA discussion is to start fresh or alter the problems of the previous agreement, the players are coming in with an outdated model and expecting it to work. The owners want it restructured for multiple reasons. Admittedly one is to safeguard themselves from their own overpayment but if you want the league to remain viable you have to accept this. If not, you can have your theoretical world of roster limits and losing money saving your ass but if LA can afford the best 15 guys in the NBA good luck staffing Houston when markets like LA and NY could afford the 30 best guys in the NBA. Chicago makes it 45. Good luck staffing your team with 46th and below. But I guess that’s totally fine because everyone wants the NBA to have roughly 5-10 teams right? Cause the teams that can’t afford those top guys will lose money and phase out.
The owners are asking the players to cut them some slack and try to divvy things up. Small market clubs are currently driving the revenue sharing discussion and you’re daft if you don’t think Houston doesn’t want a cut of Dallas’s market and more equity on spending. You’re caught up in what you want for the players as opposed to what will be conducive for the sport. It’s admirable that you support the players but you’re casting it in a David v. Goliath/Greed v. Good Guy mentality that’s just not there. The players can charge into court saying the NBA isn’t negotiating in good faith (Are you in the legal field?) they’ll get laughed out. Courts encourage ADR and if the owners came to the table ready to bargain and made a step to do so and the players fail to reciprocate or further negotiations off those grounds the players are the ones in bad faith.
No one brought up the idea of athletes being overpaid so we won’t discuss that random argument.
My beingadick-butnotbeinganannoyingdick skills, they're impressive.
-TCWIR paraphrased
Thanks for the CBA insight
I had thought of asking you to address that. I think that sports in general is walking a path with many hazards these days. Bad press is nothing new to pro and college sports, but the steady drumbeat of negative press combined with the prospect of having two major pro leagues shut down at once might be sufficent to have a judge say enough. If an appellate court did not rule for owners, it could indeed get ugly. The public might look at it from the prospective of the owners brought it on themselves and support a players victory in court. Or worse, fans could decide to find better things to do with free time and money.
Funny enough the first judge wound up ruling that public policy prevented her from continuing the lockout.
Unfortunately public policy didn’t serve enough interest to prevent the owners moving for a stay of the judgment and getting the lockout back on.
My beingadick-butnotbeinganannoyingdick skills, they're impressive.
-TCWIR paraphrased
There is one center that fits us at 14.
Nikola Vucevic.
This guy’s stock has been rising since the beginning of the month.
People say we need a defensive center in this draft, when we already have one. While Thabeet is not a sure thing, we all know his high number of blocks per game is a sure thing. His defensive fundamentals are coming around, and if he gets legit minutes this year, his confidence will go through the roof, something that helps/helped defensive freaks like JaVale McGee or Ben Wallace. Both are/were pretty cocky guys.
We need an offensive center. Enter Vucevic. He has a polished post game, and can step outside and hit an 18 footer. He also has an NBA body at 7-0 260. While his defense is decent at best, he did average 10.3 rebounds and 1.5 blocks last season.
Many say he was only good because he was taller than everybody else in the guard-driven Pac 10. I don’t believe that. I think his skillset can translate to the NBA very well, and he has the ability to play right away, whether it’s eventually starting this year, or just coming off the bench.
One can say, “If he averaged 17 points, 10 boards, and 1.5 blocks per game, why isn’t he a lottery pick?” Well,GMs have taken notice of this guy. Will he fall to 14? I think so. Will he fall to 23? Absolutely not. I think if we pass on him at 14, the Sixers will likely take him at 16. Many scouts and GMs have also said that Vucevic isn’t too different from Kanter. They both have the same skillsets, Kanter is just slightly better in every category.
We need a center who can play 25-30 minutes right off the bat. While Thabeet is going to play this year, it will be as the backup center, hopefully getting at least 18-22 minutes per game. Vucevic is ready to play 25-30 minutes I think. He has the NBA body to bang inside, he has good fundamentals, and he has a polished offensive game.
This guy has my endorsement for the 14th pick. Then at 23, hopefully my favorite player in the entire draft, Darius Morris, falls to us. That way we have more options at PG. Nothing against Dragic, I just think Morris could be an All-Star if he drastically improves his shooting.
"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.
from the video Ive seen
it looks like he plays a similar type of game like Brook Lopez. And I like Lopezs’ game. I have only seen the one on nbadraft.net but it seems that way to me. I wouldnt mind adding him but Im not 100% at 14
"Stability is a factor in teams that win the championship. But if you stabilize on a team that's going to end up short of that, then all you're doing is spinning your wheels in the 45-win range."-----Daryl Morey
by fanoflosingteams on Jun 18, 2011 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions
Donatas Motijunas?
the guy is really good offensively and isnt the traditional Euro big either…he could be available at 14 and i think he could be the steal of the draft and end up really good
by Samarth Sulhan on Jun 18, 2011 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions
No.
Motiejunas cannot bang inside like Vucevic can.
Motiejunas is like 215 or 220, while Vucevic is 260.
"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.
by bone31crusher on Jun 18, 2011 6:10 PM CDT up reply actions
Have you seen him in recent workouts?
the guy has definetly added alot of muscle and looks even buffer and bulkier than Vucevic
by Samarth Sulhan on Jun 19, 2011 12:52 AM CDT up reply actions
No.
I don’t care what he looks like in workouts, he’s probably no more than 225 right now.
Vucevic is a 5, and Motiejunas is a 4.
Motiejunas has always preferred playing on the perimeter, rather than banging inside like Vucevic.
"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.
by bone31crusher on Jun 19, 2011 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Motijunas hasnt preffered to play on the perimeter
but has played out there a litle bit more because hes a good shooter…and that being said, hes not afraid of contact and once in the post, has an array of moves
and i think that he has the tools to play the 5 and be a good center in this league
by Samarth Sulhan on Jun 19, 2011 5:07 PM CDT up reply actions
If Nikola Vucevic can improve his pick and roll defense
And overall foot speed he would be a lock for the lottery. I like him and I wouldn’t mind taking a chance on him being a sleeper in the draft.
Me against the world is a mismatch in my favor.
Good Post
Great talent evaluations of our current roster.
I do not see us addressing our Center need in the draft. Patrick, Chuck, Hill is a solid lineup for the 4. I am a big Scola fan but combining him with a draft pick or 2 is our best chance at center. I too think we will get some improvement from Thabeet but people thinking he is going to be a major contributer this coming year is unrealistic. Looks like we should be able to get a good 3 prospect in this draft. Lee played some nice 3 time last year. If we do not trade Martin that will help depth at the 3. Hopefully Williams shows something this year but I did not watch him in college and saw little last year. Still hoping for a very short lockout.
Hopefully K-Mart/Scola will land us a SG in their trade
In case we can’t get Thornton or CDR in free agency. And yes, in a perfect world Chase and Chuck would come off the bench. Like last year, it’s going to be cool to think about the possibilty of going 10 deep and running a line change with Goran, Lee, Chase, Patterson, and Chuck off the bench, with Hill and Thabeet getting minutes as well, somehow.
How many Biletnikoffs does he have? NOT TWO!
If you hoped to get a SG why would you trade Martin.
There is very few upgrades at that position out the there. Lee can play it and between some backup time from Bud and playing both point guards at together we would be ok. We need a center and upgrade at the 3. The only reason to trade players is to upgrade the team.
It's not about upgrading over Martin, it's about replacing him.
We’re rebuilding, you don’t rebuild with a guy very near 30 as a centerpiece of your team. It sucks to hear for most fans but moving Martin is about stocking up on picks or shoring up other positions. Trading Martin allows you to slot Lee in to start then go ahead and build depth behind him with youth, which is where this draft and a guy like CDR could be useful.
My beingadick-butnotbeinganannoyingdick skills, they're impressive.
-TCWIR paraphrased
Thats why I think any trade of both Scola And Martin has too really upgrade somewhere.
For this reason trading Scola makes sense. I think you get your best young player development by mixing them with veterans. I am just saying you only trade Martin to get better at center or way better at small forward.
Again, as a rebuilding team some of your moves will be lateral to clear up time and development.
Hate to burst your bubble but if you can get future draft picks or salary relief, you don’t really have to care about upgrading anything.
My beingadick-butnotbeinganannoyingdick skills, they're impressive.
-TCWIR paraphrased
Well
The roster as it currently is is really a bit better than a normal rebuilding roster, but not good enough to contend. This looks grim in some ways, since you don’t really end up going in either direction.
But, I’d argue that actually it’s great for this situation. I’m sure that if the front office gets an offer involving a big name, they’ll bite (unless it involves throwing away half the team, cough cough knicks cough cough). Or they can do as you’ve said and move towards a full on rebuild. It just depends on what the market looks like, I think.
Of course, none of this matters, since the next 3-15 months are a giant fiery question mark. This is why I think DM doesn’t move in the draft. What’s the point if everything you do might be for naught? Just do that magic thing where he gets top-10 talent at positions 14-45 again I guess.
Just how many YOUNG players can you develop at the same time.
I have a hard time looking at at 28 as old. I understand that is not exactly what you are saying, but that if you are looking at 2 years before we a contender then Martin will be 30. I am just saying if our oldest players are Martin and Chuck at 28 years old are out oldest players we are a very young team. Traditionally most players are their best between 27 and 30. I do believe we have to change a lot of players to rebuild. Scola is 31 so yes trading him makes sense if you get an upgrade or younger fairly equal player. We are a young team now. I only want to trade Martin to improve not trade him because of age.
Sorry but I meant to say I do NOT believe we have to change a lot of players to rebuild.
This is because I think we have already been rebuilding.
We've been getting ourselves ready for it, we haven't done it.
We knew Yao’s body wasn’t reliable so we tried getting bits and pieces together to trade to stay relevant, those trades weren’t available. As a result, we’re forced down path B to actually rebuild.
My beingadick-butnotbeinganannoyingdick skills, they're impressive.
-TCWIR paraphrased
I'm with BD here
I actually spoke with a friend yesterday about who could possibly still be with the team in five years. The answer? Patterson, who we still believed could be gone tomorrow. Lee and Lowry are our best trade pieces in terms of youth and talent. In terms of all-around ability, it’s Scola and Martin. If the Rockets want to become a perennial contender, we have to wisely find ways to trade these guys while grabbing more pieces to build around.
Kevin Durants don’t come around all the time, but eventually one of those pieces (whether it’s a player or draft pick) has to turn into our centerpiece. And none of the guys we have are it.
How many Biletnikoffs does he have? NOT TWO!
Everyone wants to trade to improve, sometimes you need to trade to improve internally.
If we’re changing our playstyle to be two-way Lee will need some more minutes. You don’t want to admit Martin is old at 28 because 28 is still young but in sports, it’s getting on in years.
As far as duration of rebuild and what not, that’s entirely subjective. Some people think we’re close to competing, I’m calling shenanigans and can’t agree. A lot of people want instant gratification and it’s just not going to happen.
My beingadick-butnotbeinganannoyingdick skills, they're impressive.
-TCWIR paraphrased
Kevin Martin is 28 years old
and I figure he has at least another 5 impactful seasons, and he currently has a favorable contract for his production. At this point right now, if you deal him, you better make damn sure you’re getting something in return. In other words, in return Houston should be getting a top 5 pick, a young big man with huge upside, or an elite player. At this point, it would be stupid to get rid of him just to “replace” him. He’s not going to make this team a championship caliber team by himself, but he’s great #2 option. When you say we’re rebuilding, I guess you are assuming that in the next 3-4 years this franchise will not be a championship caliber team. While that may be the case, you have to play it out. Scola is a guy you can “replace” right now. Not Martin, not yet. He’s not killing your payroll, and you’re perimeter shooting and FT attempts/efficiency will suffer bigtime. If you want to trade him, sell high. Don’t trade him just to “replace” him sorry not feasible for Martin.
Welcome to Houston Kevin McHale. Just remember "It was Minnesota" is no longer an excuse.
You're assuming that I'm saying fritter it away. I'm saying a Martin move is most likely lateral to coax development of our guys.
It would be a move for a high end draft pick but you don’t build around Martin, he’s the “last piece you add” not the guy you focus your team on. As far as saying you better get an elite player for Martin, you don’t get elite for second tier. That’s not how trades tend to work. Scola is expendable and his contract will get to the toxic point.
Your call on Martin having 5 good years, we’ll see, his game isn’t predicated on athleticism so it may pan out for him, my opinion is you’ll get more for a guy like that than if you hold on to him and pray the rebuild gambles all pay off in three years.
My beingadick-butnotbeinganannoyingdick skills, they're impressive.
-TCWIR paraphrased
The first trade that comes to mind....
When you say “As far as saying you better get an elite player for Martin, you don’t get elite for second tier” …. Wilson Chandler, Danilo Galinari, Raymond Felton, draft picks and cash… None of that IMO is even second tier. Yes that was New York, and Melo going there was a fore-gone conlcusion. But what about the T-Mac deal? He was elite at the time and Houston got him for Francis, Mobley, and Cato. So elite players have been traded for less than second tier stars. That argument doesn’t hold water.
As far as Martin goes, you offered that they need to “replace” him. Now you’re saying that you need to sell high. Well you don’t sell at all unless you get something great at this point. The “replacing” because he won’t be good by the time the Rockets are good isn’t feasible. As far as his health goes, I say 5 years, for all we know he could be like Reggie Miller and play till he’s 38. I know they aren’t exactly the same player, but several players came and went in Indiana during his tenure there, and they had some good teams but got caught up in the Lakers dynasty.
Kevin Martin accounted for 32% of the team’s free throws, 22% of the scoring, and 26% of the team’s 3 pt field goals. In the playoffs for the Mavericks, in the games against OKC and Miami, Dallas went 8-3. Of those 11 games, Dallas was out-rebounded in 8 of those games. Including being out-rebounded by OKC 55-33 in game 5, yet still winning by 7. Because of what? You guessed it 14 more FT attempts and 6 more made 3 pointers. If this year’s post-season showed any sort of trend… efficiency, ball movement, transition scoring, outside shooting is king. More so than dominating the boards and holding opponents into the 80s. Not discounting the importance of playing great team defense, but how many times did teams settle for jumpers and go several minutes without scoring. To me, Kevin Martin’s game is more so than just an elite scorer. I mean he’s never played with a legit big man. His efficency is off the charts and I think he’s a big piece to the franchise moving on. If he’s dealt, I think there has to be something big coming in return. You don’t trade him just to “replace” him because he will not be valuable by the time you think the Rockets will be good.
Welcome to Houston Kevin McHale. Just remember "It was Minnesota" is no longer an excuse.
I was agreeing with Jake
showed up under BD because I am slow
The reply chain makes sense since it shows up under his post.
I just feel like this board is of the mindset that it can buy a new car, run it til it’s nearly dead and someone will give you what the cost was when you bought it. Same theory with Martin. We’re not going to be able to use him once we’re done, sell him while he’s got miles left on the transmission, don’t run it into the ground then complain when you can’t get 2 grand for your M3 you ran ragged.
My beingadick-butnotbeinganannoyingdick skills, they're impressive.
-TCWIR paraphrased
I can understand that.
Just think his contract is Ok and only trade for a really good upgrade. At 12 mil with the present CBA you would be OK if he was your 3rd highest contract.
The upcoming CBA is what I have my most concerns about.
Especially with reports today that the owners relinquished their stance on contract guarantees and the players have basically made it clear they’re digging their heels in on this one. So happily enough the owners are willing to negotiate and concede and the players are going to be little pains in the ass.
My beingadick-butnotbeinganannoyingdick skills, they're impressive.
-TCWIR paraphrased
Owners conceding nothing
The players already have guaranteed contracts. The owners were trying to get that removed.
It is obviously not important to owners as the hard cap is,that and their desire to trim player salaries by a third.
This is a PR move designed to forestall the players’ suit claiming the NBA has not been negotiating in good faith.
It is a concession.
If you come to the table with a certain goal in mind and yield that goal to me, even if it is the status quo, you have yielded your goal to me, that is a concession. The status quo will not continue to work and the players wish to keep the status quo, do you see where the tires spin in this ordeal? Something needs to change and the financial structure needs to alter or else the league will not be viable for much longer.
As far as negotiation in good faith, proof of conceding a bargaining point, regardless of it’s current manifestation will defeat the bad faith argument.
My beingadick-butnotbeinganannoyingdick skills, they're impressive.
-TCWIR paraphrased
I think we'll continue to disagree on this :)
But to the point,how broke is the NBA?
The league claimed operating losses of $400mil in 2010. They’re asking the players to give up $750mil. Hmmm.
OTOH,in 2008-2009:
“The league’s top five most profitable franchise’s (Lakers, Bulls, Pistons, Rockets, Knicks) are also among the best financed and rake in over 80 percent of the league’s income.
…A dozen NBA teams did have operating losses in 2008-09, but over half of those teams had relatively small losses. The worst five NBA franchises incurred about 74 percent of all the losses.
Perhaps the biggest argument for how the NBA owners are the cause of their own problems resides with Mark Cuban and Paul Allen. These two wealthy owners appear to treat their franchises as personal toys…
Last season the Mavericks and Trailblazers lost a combined $38 million on an operating basis. That’s about a third of the losses incurred in the NBA. And they had the highest and fourth highest payroll costs in the league.”
“The real concern that NBA fans should have now is that David Stern and the owners of the league’s most profitable franchises have learned a lesson from the NHL lock-out.
The NHL lock-out implemented a hard cap and dramatically lowered players salaries.
But what it really accomplished was to split the players even further along the lines of maximum salary star players and minimum salary guys. It did not get easier for small market teams to get star players.
And perhaps far more importantly, it cut the payroll cost of the leagues most profitable teams almost in half. Highly profitable teams, like the Toronto Maple Leafs saw their profits double.
But pay attention to the lower revenue teams the new NHL salary structure was supposed to save. They are all still in big financial trouble. Some having gone through bankruptcy court, many looking for new ownership.”
http://sbrother.wordpress.com/2010/02/17/david-stern-its-hard-to-believe-nba-owners-really-need-the-players-help/
“In the NFL, the home team splits the gate 60-40 with the the away team. In the NBA, the home teams keep everything. In the NFL 70%-75% of team revenue comes from revenue sharing. In the NBA it is only 20%-25%. In the MLB 35% of each teams local media revenues (TV, Radio, etc.) are put into a pot and redistributed. There is no such agreement in the NBA. In the NBA $49 million was redistributed for revenue sharing (via the lux tax and the escrow system) in 2008, while the MLB redistributed $300 million in 2005.”
http://jonesonthenba.com/2009/03/nbas-real-economic-problem-lack-of.html
My own idea is to consider only three numbers for min team salary and a hard cap. Teams get $35mil a year from the National TV deals and NBA merchandising. That’s the minimum a team must pay on salaries. The median ticket income last yr was @ $33mil. Add that to the $35mil and that’s the Salary Cap.,in this case it’d be $68mil for next yr. As tickets sales rise or fall,so does Salary Cap.
I’d do revenue sharing thru having every dollar a team’s local media deal exceeds the National share,having an equal dollar of National share withheld and going into pool for teams w/media deals that don’t exceed the National deal.(For example,a team has a $50mil local deal,it loses $20mil of National money.) There are 5 teams that likely exceed $50mil in local deals,that puts some $200mil into pool for at best 25 other teams,some $8mil each.
So for a team below the median ticket sales
Who has a crappy market and still has tons of other expenses other than player salaries (stadium, front office, travel, coaches), they basically have no chance at turning a profit? That figure is just way too high because while teams have other sources of revenue except for NBA distributions and ticket sales, for small market teams there’s no way they could make the cap and still turn a profit. To me, a salary cap should be a figure where all of the teams could reasonably reach it and still not be operating in the red. It doesn’t always happen, but that’s how I think it should be.
by Patrick Harrel on Jun 18, 2011 11:29 PM CDT up reply actions
I purposely left out
Teams local media deals,sponsorships and other assorted revenue streams.
For the Kings,they’d have the roughly $35mil from National pot,some $8mil from revenue sharing,their $11mil Local Media deals,whatever sponsorship money they have-as a small market,very little-AND their ticket sales revenue,which in the case of the Leagues’ worst last yr was about $13mil.(The Kings were not the worst,but I’m going w/a floor.) And I’d support 10-20% ticket revenue sharing,but I/m assuming there isn’t one.
The Kings would have to spend $35mil on player salaries,so that leaves a minimum of $32mil for operations.
That doesn’t leave the Kings in a position to spend near the Cap unless they either dramatically increase their ticket revenues-hey maybe a good team would do that-or accept losing millions. Unfair,but the argument is teams want the assurance of NOT LOSING money. My proposal would give teams a min where they could make money and any additional revenues could improve talent level.
Yes there’d be several teams run like the Clippers were,but what’s the alternative? The Lakers went all out to keep the Maloofs from moving into Orange County because it might cause a 10% drop in their new TV deal. And we’re going to believe they,the Knicks,Celts,Bulls are going to hand over ALL their local deals to Memphis,Minnesota,Charlotte,Sacremento? That the Buss family,who make a nice living off the Lakers,are going to give their money to Paul Allen and Mark Cuban?
Patrick,the problem with “a salary cap should be a figure where all of the teams could reasonably reach it and still not be operating in the red” is that it drags the League down to lowest market. I’m using Sac a lot because they are a problem team,and living in LA I’ve read/heard alot about their financials.
They had the minimum payroll last yr of $43mil,and they got UP to that by Boston selling Marquis Daniels to them w/the cash to cover his salary. They still claimed losses of $8mil.
So for them to break even and reach the Salary Cap,it would have to be $35mil. Seriously? So even under a massively reduced Salary Cap of say $45mil,the Kings still couldn’t afford it.
And it’s not like the Kings have massive salaries either. They’ve only got 3 players making more than $4mil this yr-Dalembert($13.4),Udrih($6.5) and Garcia($5.5).
Unless the League goes to all-out revenue sharing or contracts by 4-6 teams,there’s going to be teams that cannot afford the salaries richer teams can. But that doesn’t automatically doom small market teams to futility. Smart coaching,smart personnel decisions can not only make a team competitive but w/the right mix of vets and youngs,committed to a team philosophy can occasionally contend. Or did you follow the Rockets these past 2 seasons because you believed they were Championship contenders?
Plus we should beware of unintended consequences. How many top Euro players are going to want to come over and stay,knowing they can always make more in Europe? When they know there’s no way they can afford buy-outs?
If player salaries are so limited,off-court endorsements are going to be even more important. And where do you get the most off-court money? Combine that w/shorter contracts and you’re guaranteeing the Knicks and Lakers will have their pick of the Leagues’ talent every yr.
Id like to see
T-Will moved to the 2 spot if we move Martin. At 6’6 he would be a nice size 2.
"Stability is a factor in teams that win the championship. But if you stabilize on a team that's going to end up short of that, then all you're doing is spinning your wheels in the 45-win range."-----Daryl Morey
by fanoflosingteams on Jun 18, 2011 2:52 PM CDT reply actions
I wouldnt start TWill over Lee
but he is an option at the 2 spot IF Martin were to be moved.
"Stability is a factor in teams that win the championship. But if you stabilize on a team that's going to end up short of that, then all you're doing is spinning your wheels in the 45-win range."-----Daryl Morey
by fanoflosingteams on Jun 18, 2011 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions
I SAY WE TRY TO CONVINCE OKC
THAT THEY NEED A POINT GUARD LIKE KYLE LOWRY INSTEAD OF RUSSEL WESTBROOK I BELIEVE THAT WOULD PUT US VERY HIGH ON A TOTEM POLE OF THE WEST IF WE CAN GIVE UP SCOLA, LOWRY, AND BUDINGER FOR WESTBROOK!!!
AND WHILE WERE AT IT CONVINCE THE HEAT THAT THEY NEED MARTIN AND HILL ALONG WITH EVERYTHING ELSE WE CAN SPARE FOR BOSH, THAT WOULD REALLY BE A LONG RUN BUT HEY I GUESS IT NEVER HURTS TO TRY!!!!!!!!!
Because a starting lineup of Westbrook and Bosh by themselves would be terrifying
Oh, look out! When you pay too much attention to them, here comes Brad Miller! Dude knows how to get to the rack at will. And Terrence Williams, with live in-game tweets (literally in-game as he’s playing) will make this team one of the most entertaining in the league. With Chuck Hayes manning the shooting guard position, how could this team ever lose?
How many Biletnikoffs does he have? NOT TWO!
LOLLLLL!!!!
just the reaction i was looking for!
The SF and C positions are the needs
The players considered of value for trading by other teams are Martin, Scola and Patterson to some extent. Why would you want CDR? Marcus Thorton can shoot sometimes but is not consistent enough to warrant anyone but Budinger in a trade. As for shooters I would rather chase Beasley and #2 in this draft.
The content of the text above is provided for information purposes only. No claim is made as to the accuracy or authenticity of the content. The troll does not accept any liability to any person for the information or advice (or the use of such information or advice) which is provided in the text above.
Re-read please.
Thornton and CDR are unrestricted free agents, not trade players. It’s strictly a depth move…
My beingadick-butnotbeinganannoyingdick skills, they're impressive.
-TCWIR paraphrased
Gotta agree on Thorton being a good signing
But he’d be a strong contender for starting.
The kid can flat out score-even when he can’t buy a shot. He’ll attack rim and get FTs. And most importantly he’s a guy you give the ball to,down 1,10 seconds to go,and have confidence he’ll succeed more often than not. He likes the big moments and steps up. But you have to pair him w/a defensive SF.
And you could play him and Lee together at the two gd spots as they’re both played PG,albeit not setting world on fire while doing so.
But signing him would be contingent on trading Martin. Would the #4,Jamison,and signing Thorton be better than Martin and the #14?(Or any other trade.) Depends,this one I’d do,others no. And I’d have to be pretty sure I could both afford and sign him.
I don't necessarily agree
What separates Thornton from Jordan Crawford, Leandro Barbosa, Nick Young and all the other empty scorers out there? He can score, but he doesn’t play much D, doesn’t pass well, and isn’t even very efficient. Getting rid of our best player just to bring in an even worse defensive liability doesn’t make sense to me. I know BD has mentioned that he’d add valuable depth which is a valid point, but I’d rather be looking at 2 way players like Arron Afflalo, Wilson Chandler, Thad Young or even Tayshaun Prince if I’m going to spend money on a free agent wing.
by Patrick Harrel on Jun 18, 2011 11:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Fun discussion
It’s not about swapping Martin for Thorton(who’s edge over the other guys is his ability to rain points in a hurry and to step up in crunch time),it’s about finding a replacement for Martin if Martin is traded.
I think we can assume if Martin is traded it will be for something Morey esp values.(top draft pick,young w/vast potential,whatever.) Since it’s unlikely Martin gets traded for another SG that opens a hole at SG.
Now most would be comfortable w/Lee moving into starting spot(esp if Bud remains at SF),some might see Williams there,but w/Martin traded,Lee and Bud are all that’s left that the Rockets can count on and the possibility of Williams. The Rockets would need to add at least one wing,preferably 2.
My opinion,I’d rather the Rockets draft a defensive SF-as he’d be cheaper that the FA SFs-and he’d be coming into his own just about the time the Rockets start contending again in 2-3 yrs. Which means I’d sign a SG who I know can actually score,in this case Thorton,because I’m still dubious Williams can turn it around-hopeful,but doubting.
Altho going the other way in drafting a Burks or Thompson and signing a defensive SF works for me,but I find it hard to imagine Morey trading Martin so he could draft either of those two.(I might do it to draft Burks,but I doubt Morey ever would :) .)
To me the most fascinating question in all this is never mind the particulars of the trade,but WHO does Morey want at #2? Williams or Kanter,or even Knight? You’d think it would be Kanter,w/all the talk of Rockets wanting a C,the hiring of a coach known for working w/bigs…or does he see Williams as a potential Carmelo,able to score and get off his shot from anywhere on court? That’s what I would love to know.
Has Morey signed anyone known to the basketball world other than Brad Miller?
If Martin is traded surely Lee, Dragic and TWill will be ok to fill SG.
Thornton has had Qualifying offer from Kings and Morey isn’t one to up anyone.
I’d save the money for Lee when he’s restricted in 2012 what about someone who can rebound and protect the paint.
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shane battier
i don’t really know the contract things ‘but i remember reading that shane battier would want to resign with the rockets. i’m pretty sure signing him for 2 years having him for 10-15 minutes a game knowing what you’re going to get is better than hoping that terrance williams develops into what everyone believes he’s capable of. and in case it doesn’t pan out we have an even bigger hole at the sf position. i think chase budinger starting and shane and terrance sharing minutes would be safe and effective. of course, i could be wrong about resigning shane battier then just void this post.
Shane is a feel good guy but he loves Memphis and we're rebuilding.
You don’t rebuild by signing Shane Battier’s of the NBA to split minutes with guys like Terrence Williams.
My beingadick-butnotbeinganannoyingdick skills, they're impressive.
-TCWIR paraphrased
thanks for the post
to be honest i didnt have a clue exactly wat the lockout really was as im not in america everything i get, EVERYTHING is got from online (all my rockets stuff here), so its nice to have it explained almost as if i was a child :)
On the players id say scola should be first to go (even tho hes my fav) Pat needs mins but i dont think his knee will be that big a deal alot of teams could really use a player like him, playin reduced mins compaired to last year no doubt. Maybe a team like boston, hawks? for some reason i think well keep Martin just a feelin
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