Is Morey a Genius? Re: 2009 Draft/Lockout

by Texas08 on Jul 25, 2011 11:49 AM CDT

With the lockout in the NBA for possibly the whole season, will Morey comeout looking like a genius? There is no surprise that Morey has stock piled picks from the 2009 Draft, was it cause he really liked it or for other reason??

It so happens that all the players from 2009 have team options in 2012-13 which the Rockets most likely not pick up. So did Morey trade for these players in order to shed salary with out too many people knowing. If there is a lockout, the Rockets dont have to pay Thabeet, Hill, Williams, and Flynn next season, then when the 12-13 season comes, all that money comes off the books and the Rockets are left with about $33 Million with Martin, Scola, Lowry and picking up the options on Patterson and Lee. There is also rookies to sign so it would be a little more.

Will this set up the Rockets to offer 2 max contracts to some like Chris Paul/Deron Williams and Dwight Howard? Its also still possible to trade Scola and get rid of an extra $9.4 Million since they would resign Patterson.

How good would a team be of Howard, Martin and Chris Paul?? Seems like a balanced team with inside and outside threats. A team like that would be almost a shoe-in in the Western Finals.

I know there is still the thing about they have to want to come here but there are several things the Rockets have in their favor. 1) With possibly lower max contracts, living in Texas with no state tax will be a big bonus. Also its way cheaper to live here. 2) You offer a big 3 with Martin already on the team. 3) Howard really likes Olajuwon and he can be the next great big man in Houston. 4) Rockets are in the West, where you dont have to go through the Heat to go to the Finals.

So will Morey's gamble of predicting no 2011-12 season and trying to get every 2009 draft pick pay off for future Rockets success?

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Comments

None of this can really be hashed out because salary structure controls the entire discussion and we have no salary structure in place.

I said for the longest time that Morey should have been looking for big ticket 2 year deals last season since this one was most likely lost so they were all essentially expiring picks. I think Morey’s draft focus and pick ups have more to do with the fact that there’s potential all over the place and we’re rebuilding anyway so you have to take the flyers on them. If it doesn’t work out, you can easily take a pass.

We have no way of being able to talk about this because we don’t know if there will be franchise tags, what the cap rules will be, what are the terms to player mobility, does the 125% rule persist, and there’s no reason to assume that the current salary structure will live through this CBA.

As for your reasons to come to Houston we’ve discussed this ad nauseum. The tax issue is overstated, the cost of living is overstated (Let’s be serious, with the compensation these players get they can afford to live in the greater metropolitan areas of any of the cities they possibly end up in), the Olajuwon connection is not a formal on staff player considering he schedules his workouts independently, not through the Rockets, and we don’t have to go through the Heat in the West but you have tougher competition top to bottom where you deal with the Thunder, the Lakers, the Spurs, and the Mavericks. The Heat might have the Threetards but the West has teams.

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by BD34 on Jul 25, 2011 12:03 PM CDT reply actions

The GMs all have an idea of what the new cap will look like

They’re not working on blind assumption here. Owners want a harder cap, but that affects the teams with insane payrolls like the Lakers or the Mavs more than the Rockets. The figure for the hard cap is going to be about the same if not higher. They’re simply going to change the upper limit so you can’t spend $80+ mil by going over the luxury tax.

At the very least, Morey can work on the assumption that the cap is at least similar to last year’s.

by baubo on Jul 25, 2011 11:19 PM CDT up reply actions

GMs aren't totally in the blind here

The owners want a lower upper cap but that doesn’t affect the Rockets. We’re not the ones with 80 million dollar payroll here. The new CBA is not going to change the fact that we will have a ton of money to throw at a premier free agent. Two free agents if there’s still a max salary in place at roughly 25% of the salary cap.

by baubo on Jul 25, 2011 11:24 PM CDT up reply actions

Just to add to BD's comment

He’s right about the salary structure being an unknown. Plus, trading Scola doesn’t free up $9+ million. We have to take back roughly the same amount of money. Again, that could change but right now is there any reasons to not re-sign Jordan Hill? Even Thabeet, Williams, and Flynn are unknowns who might perform better under a Kevin McHale system rather than the previous ones they were in.

But I’ll admit it’s an interesting point. I never thought about Morey liking the 2009 draft for this reason. I love outside-the-box thinking, and I’m sure Morey has thought about it at least once in the last couple of years. Guaranteed.

How many Biletnikoffs does he have? NOT TWO!

by ak2themax on Jul 25, 2011 3:27 PM CDT reply actions

Seems to perfect to believe it didnt cross Moreys mind

You have 5 players that arent part of the core totaling about $18.5 million. Only Martin, Scola and Lowry would be on the books, plus the rookies coming in. And true Scola doesnt free up all of the $9 Million, but you can get draft picks to replace some of the money so not all of it comes back.

For some reason I think this is what Morey had in mind. Start the 2012-13 season with a ton of spending money and Lowry and Martin in your back court. I can only imagine what Morey can do with all that cap space.

And I know we dont know what the new CBA will bring but Im guessing its going to have a lower cap and players making a lot less money. The only thing that would be against the Rockets would be some sort of franchise tag, but everything else should help the Rocekts make a major move.

by Texas08 on Jul 25, 2011 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions

We don't have to take back the same amount of money if...

A. the other team is $9 million or more under the cap
B. the other team trade us a non-guaranteed contract or partially-guaranteed contract

I think it’s safe to say that if Morey wants to dump Scola for a bag of peanuts just for the sake of clearing enough money for Dwight Howard and Chris Paul, he can definitely do it. The problem is getting Paul and Howard to want to come here in the first place. Everything else can fall into place rather easily through some smart manuverings.

by baubo on Jul 25, 2011 11:22 PM CDT up reply actions

Both A and B are unlikely

Not many teams or players fit that description. Yes, Morey can move money around, but only if he’s sure he can get someone of the caliber of the guys you mentioned.

How many Biletnikoffs does he have? NOT TWO!

by ak2themax on Jul 26, 2011 9:44 AM CDT up reply actions

This is an interesting perspective....

I’m not so sure that’s why he acquired all of the 09 picks, but hey, you never know. As you know, I’m all about flexible cap space so I do like your line of thinking. If the entire season is lost, then you’re absolutely right, Houston will be a major player next summer. But like BD and AK said, there’s a lot unknown. It’s going to be interesting to see what happens.

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by jake_471 on Jul 25, 2011 5:43 PM CDT reply actions

This made me think of some scenarios I've never considered before...

It may not be entirely possible but it does give one something to think about and with the lockout, we have all the time to think and consider things.

by suzaku on Jul 26, 2011 2:49 AM CDT reply actions

I think it is more just circumstance.

If he had signed Scola and/or Lowry to deals with team options in 2012-13 then I would be more suspicious. Getting rid of Ariza/Miller (fixing his mistakes) and not extending Battier is just normal procedure for the Rockets.

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by craigj007 on Jul 26, 2011 3:47 AM CDT reply actions