What's Wrong With Goran Dragic?
Nothing is terribly wrong with Goran Dragic, actually. He's putting up decent numbers this season and is actually among the more efficient Rockets on the current roster. He also put Russell Westbrook on his backside.
That said, there's a drop-off from last year's Goran, the feisty lightening rod that we used to know. Something about him is different. To borrow from Jason Friedman, we've seen far too much of his depressing, AutoCorrect-inspired alter ego, Groan Tragic.
Dragic's surroundings have certainly changed. The minute Dragic came to Houston last season, he found himself right at home with the Rockets' pass-heavy, run-heavy, "F**k it, we'll do it live!" second unit. The Dragon doth detest any sort of delay or slow pace (my Old English is a little rough), so naturally Houston's fast pace to contributed to Dragic's nifty season.
This year, under a new head coach, the pace has slowed... a lot. The Rockets are 20th in the league in pace. As a result, Dragic's numbers have slowed as well*:
*Last year's numbers are solely from Dragic's time spent with the Rockets.
On the surface, like I said, there doesn't appear to be a problem. Dragic's points per game are relatively unchanged. But look closer and you'll see some major differences.
Note: Dragic's best games this year came when he was with the first unit in place of an injured Kyle Lowry. That's not where he'll be playing for the majority of the time, meaning the numbers here are a bit skewed.
Three Pointers
The most glaring difference in Dragic's game is his huge decrease in his three-point percentage. I realize it's unrealistic to expect a player to shoot 50 percent from beyond the arc for a season, so a drop-off was expected. But this is more than just a down-to-earth recession. If you couldn't tell, Dragic isn't much of an isolation guy. He's really good on the catch-and-shoot. The numbers back this up: Last season, Dragic shot a whopping 60 percent on catch-and-shoot three-pointers. This year, he's still shooting well in those situations (47 percent, according to Synergy).
Dragic's isolation numbers? They aren't pretty. He's 1 for 7 on pull-ups from behind the arc and is 2-14 in isolation inside the arc. Were it not for his excellence in transition (12 for 17 on the year), Dragic's overall field goal percentage would suffer, too. As it stands, he's shooting about the same from the field as he did last year.
APER
Adjusted Player Efficiency Rating is a HoopData.com creation that is based on John Hollinger's famous formula. I tend to use it more than simple PER because it involves more efficient play-types, such as charges. As you can see, for the season, Dragic's efficiency has taken a big hit. This is evident in his play -- he looks incredibly uncomfortable in the half court and the offense has slowed when he takes the floor.
%AST
Percent of Baskets Assisted is a clever stat that speaks for itself. Clearly, Dragic is making far more of his shots on his own under Kevin McHale. Under Rick Adelman, he didn't have to do as much to find an open shot. Which brings us to our conclusion.
To me, there are two factors clearly impacting Dragic's production:
1) He's still getting used to playing under McHale.
As evidenced by Lowry's numbers increase, the point guard is handling far more duties under McHale than under Adelman. Dragic was able to play a lot more off-ball last season, especially with Brad Miller passing in the second unit. Now, he's being forced to run the show and create for himself in the half court and that's simply not his strength. So what could help?
2) Courtney Lee's return will help.
Dragic and Lee form a dynamic backcourt off the bench, as both can shoot from outside and slash to the basket. They're also used to each other's tendencies. Once Dragic gets his running mate back, I suspect the second unit will loosen up and increase the pace.
There's nothing wrong with Goran Dragic. He's no longer in the comfiest spot of his life, so one would expect an adjustment period. Check back with Dragic in March -- hopefully he'll have returned to full form with the added time.
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Part of the issue, of course, is that his numbers from last year were the product of a small sample size.
22 games seems like a lot, but it really isn’t.
His numbers right now aren’t very different from those of his sophomore season. And if 22 games is a small sample size, 13 games is, as well. I think he’ll rebound, though (like I said) I think he could benefit from another playmaker in the second unit. Like Williams.
However, if you look at the floor unit numbers at 82games.net, some of the worse units the rockets field are those Lowry-Dragic combos. Which is weird when you think about it, because (as you point out) his percent-assisted numbers are down this year, so you’d think a situation where he played more off the ball would help him out some and raise the Rockets’ overall play.
Patterson's offense isn't helping the bench's cause
Got schooled on the other end by Craig Smith and Blatche too.
Check out the shot location #s:
http://www.hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Patrick%20Patterson
I don't know a lot about the advanced stats
but my eyes tell me he just isn’t good at running a half court offense. When he’s getting out on the fast break, or taking his guy one on one…I think those are great plays for him. But he does have trouble with the flow of the offense. I’d love to see the % of how often he goes with the high pick and roll. Just noticing the last handful of games, he doesn’t go to any plays. He’ll dribble around and give the ball to someone out of place, then he’ll get it back and run pick and roll. It effects the entire game when he’s in there, even if Lowry is in there with him. Having Lee would help no doubt, but I’m more than concerned about him.
by twinkilling0303 on Jan 16, 2012 9:49 PM CST reply actions
It's funny
I think Goran should not be in a half court offense at all. you think about his main tutelage so far has came from Steve Nash, a man who brought transition offense back in style with Phoenix(not to mention too his career to a new height), in an offense where he basically just runs sprints half the time and shoot 3s and lay-ups, of course he’s gonna excel at transition offense.
I’m good with McHale trying to install more traditional half court sets, but I think in a shorten season where practice times are scarce, he should have just run the bench as who they are, a transition team. Jordan Hill’s post play is suspect at best, Patterson is hardly utilized in that way, without interior play, you’re kind of limping in half courts anyways, why not use these young bodies as they are meant to, just run and be opportunistic. Unless of course, he’s been instructed to teach first, and win later, in that case, we’ll have to go through some growing pains
You can't just run in transition every possession
so even when he pushes the ball and doesn’t find anything, he goes to the pick and roll. Hopefully with more time and a consistent rotation he’ll get better
by twinkilling0303 on Jan 16, 2012 11:02 PM CST up reply actions
Combo platter
Last yr he had a healthy Lee and Patterson and some Brad to run offense thru.
This yr he started off w/no inside scoring,so no inside out shots. Lee has been out the last few games and at end of last yr Lee had really started to understand how to play in Adelman’s O and was able to use high screens to make plays.During Williams’ try-out this yr,T-Will wasn’t making quality set-up passes.
Last yr he came in after everybody else had pretty much figured out their role in offense. He was the new guy not asked to do anything except shoot and play D. This yr he’s being asked to run the offense only he’s had virtually no camp and his second unit has been constantly changing.(Just his SFs have been T-Will,Morris,Parsons and Bud.)
And I don’t think we should discount the contract thing. I’d bet his agent has been told no extension,so he’s probably worrying about that.
Obviously biased, but...
I am new to the DreamShake, but I have been “following” Goran since his time in Phoenix. I became a fan of his catching the Suns on late Friday ESPN broadcasts. ESPN seemed to show the Suns all the time, and I found myself pulling for “The Dragon,” a scrappy bench player that had a lot of hustle, made athletic plays at the rim, and occasionally shot the lights out. I am not a basketball expert, but from what I understand Goran’s also a plus defender.
That said, there’s a reason that he went from heir apparent to trade-bait. The folks in PHX were tired of what they characterized as inconsistent play. He’s an up and down player who is probably ill-suited to the current offense.
I was honestly excited about the possibility of Goran being traded to the Hornets, where he could conceivably get some more minutes. Goran seems (eyeball test) to play better when starting. With Lowry being a legit All-Star, it’s not going to happen in Houston. I’m a fan, so my perceptions are clearly colored, but I’d like to see Goran get shot at starting somewhere.
I’m not sure that he’s an NBA starter, but then again, I’m not sure about Norris Cole, Iman Shumpert, or the collection of tired joints, tissue, and bones that is Derek FIsher are NBA starters, either.
This post made me smile.
Welcome to The Dream Shake man. I like your assessment of Dragic and feel it’s relatively spot on. I disagree on his better off as a starter but all else, I like it.
by BD34 on Jan 17, 2012 10:53 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
I think if you want to nit-pick....
he may not be the same impactful player he was last year. However, when you add in all the variables (short camp with new system, Lee’s injury meaning he plays with Lowry at times), like several other players’s production there are anomalies. Sure, last season his play for Houston was an aberration, he’s probably not that good.
I would expect his 3 pt % to creep a little closer to 40% as the season goes on. He’s looked great as a starter.
temporary avatar change...
Dragic
dribbles the ball WAY TOO MUCH. I mean, waaaaaaaaaaay too much. I know he probably got some of it from Steve Nash, who would go in the lane, back out to the short corner, then make a remarkable pass for either a lay up or wide open three ball. But it’s the European style of basketball. He sits on his dribble for 12-15 seconds per shot clock at times. I know McHale has said he wants him to run more sets, but I don’t know if that’s just too abnormal for his game.
by AhForJustOneTime on Jan 17, 2012 3:29 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Good article
I’ve been wondering the same thing about him. He’s becoming more erratic handling the ball. Now, he’s always been a little wild, but it appears to be getting worse. He’s losing control of the ball more on the penetration, which is giving teams time to rotate, he’s not finding cutters on the first or second string, and he’s getting his pocket picked more than I’ve seen in the past. In those moments where he and Lowry are on the court at the same time, it should be Showtime Third Coast. Instead, he falls into the role of a shooting guard who doesn’t particularly shoot the ball well or often, and so Kyle tends to fall into the off-guard role instead of the two working like a two-headed playmaking monster. I really believe the bench’s current woes start with him, though Patterson seems too hesitant to Hulk out, while Hill and Budinger appear a little butthurt by their respective demotions.
David Stern announced today that fines can now be levied against NBA fans who disagree with him or make disparaging marks against his character.
I thought Goran looked good against Detroit.
Much more assertive.
"Each in turn... volunteered his suggestions, his invaluable suggestions."
Yup, agree.
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