Kyle Lowry Vs. Chris Paul
by lakeytom on Jan 24, 2012 2:12 PM CST
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PrintI've been reading this blog for the past four years. I thought it was about time I got myself an account. I'm a Rocket's fan living in Los Angeles, hoping that we'll beat an L.A. team at least once this year. Anyways, being out here, Chris Paul is always on the tube and I watch whenever I can. As much as I love what's going on this year with Kyle Lowry's alarmingly consistent near triple-double stat line, he's still not Chris Paul. While I as much as any one of you wish this wasn't the case, the stats, and the always less credible eye test confirm this all too frustrating notion.
Major Statistical Categories:
Chris Paul: 18.0 ppg, 8.4 APG, 3.0 REB, 2.8 STL, 0.0 BLK, 2.2 TOS, 0.520 FG%, 0.455 3P%
Kyle Lowry: 16.5 ppg, 8.6 APG, 6.6 REB, 2.1 STL, 0.4 BLK, 3.6 TOS, 0.427 FG%, 0.406 3P%
The difference in TOS jumps off the page. Paul and Lowry average nearly the same amount of minutes and assists and their usage rates are also similar (Lowry 23.1%, Paul 21.7%), yet Lowry is still averaging more than a turnover per game. Lowry dominates the ball, but no point guard in the league dominates the ball more than Chris Paul. One would think a point guard that always has the ball in his hands is the more turnover prone, which is simply not the case here. While there is an argument to be made for Kyle Lowry's high turnover average having a lot to due with Samuel Dalembert's delayed acclamation to the Rocket's offense and his terrible hands (can someone check the numbers on how many times one of Kyle's turnovers have been due to Sam Dalembert fumbling one of his passes?), the same argument could be used on Paul. Chris Paul is playing with 12 new players, yet his turnover rate is much lower.
The shooting percentages speak for themselves. Paul shoots the same amount but more efficiently. Their true shooting percentages also reflect this (Lowry .570% vs. Paul .600%). The gap will widen further once Kyle stops nailing his fourth quarter, contested three's so consistently (It has to stop at some point, right? Hopefully it doesn't.) Furthermore, one thing that I've observed from watching Chris Paul is that his assist ratio and high field goal percentages are directly related to his uncanny and arguably unrivaled ability to create space. Paul uses his ability to handle the ball and his powerful lower body to create ridiculous amounts of space that not only make room for his own shot but also open up other options on the floor by causing defenders to over help. His fleecing of the Rockets defense in early January is clear evidence of this. Specifically, watch the plays at 1:40, 2:20 (!!!), 2:43, 4:24 and 5:28.
Defensively, I think these players are equal. Paul's hands might be slightly quicker, but both players are defensive stoppers on the perimeter. They also both make smart, efficient decisions on defense that don't jeopardize team defense. Whether it's contesting a shot instead of going for a block or staying in front of a defender instead of going for risky steals in the passing lanes (ahem... kevin martin...), they always seem to make decisions that help their team. Then again, Kyle Lowry's on-ball defense might be a little better due to his ability to guard the two and smaller three's. There DRtg's this season are fairly similar (Paul's 104 vs. Lowry's 101).
One thing Kyle Lowry has on Chris Paul is his ability to rebound effectively. Does anyone remember Adam Everett?To this day he's still one of my favorite Astros ever (yes, I'm serious). Adam Everett was always consistently under valued by Houston fans because he didn't make spectacular diving plays like Ozzy Smith or Omar Vizquel. It's not that Everett wasn't as good as Ozzy or Omar, it's that he never had to dive for the ball, because he anticipated where the ball was going to be so much quicker than any other shortstop and thus, made everything look way too easy for the most error prone position in baseball. Kyle Lowry rebounds like Adam Everett fields. There is no point guard in the league who is better at judging the flight path of a ball coming off of the basket than Kyle Lowry. It never looks impressive because he's always in the right place at the right time. Seriously, how many of his rebounds seem like they just kind of... come right to him. One thing I'd be interested to find out is in what ways Kyle's uncanny ability to rebound effects the overall play of the rest of the team. For example, how many of Kyle's rebounds lead directly to points on fast breaks? If there's one thing that's true about Kyle, it's that his eyes are always looking down court. When bigs like Dalembert or Hill get the ball they have to come down with it, secure it, find Kyle, give him the ball, and run back down the court. Only at that point is Kyle able to start the offense up. When another player gets the rebound, does it effect his ability to start the fast break? Has anyone ever noticed how often Kyle is frantically calling for the ball from Hill or Dalembert while simultaneously looking down the court to start up the offense? My hypothesis would be that the percentage of made baskets coming on fast breaks off of Kyle's rebounds is higher than any other player's on the team with the exception of Dragic (the dragon is Jedi-like when it comes to finishing at the rim on the break). To sum it up, Chris Paul is a great rebounder for his size; Kyle Lowry is just a great rebounder.
These guys are both great point guards and if Kyle Lowry keeps this up for the entire season, he'll most definitely have cemented his place as a the third or fourth best point guard in the league. Hopefully those ridiculous from-the-parking-lot, contested three pointers will keep falling. Looking forward to hearing what y'all's thoughts are.
No cursing in title. No pirated material, such as links to online game streams. Do not cut/paste entire sections of content from other websites. Thanks.
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lowry.
Go Rockets!
"Our players knew we were going to win so kinda let up on defense." Kevin Mchale
"Screw Stern!" Me
I'll take Lowry on my team
CP3 = $16.3M
Lowry = $5.7M
And you are talking about +1 turnover for Lowry vs. minus 1/2 the rebounds for CP3.
I like CP3 cause he can get in the paint and breakdown defenses, where Lowry still needs works on that. But for the money I’ll take Lowry any day!
Dude
You’re totally right. I’ll take Lowry at that cost any day over Chris Paul at 16 mil.
I agree...
We often forget this is PROFESSIONAL basketball and there are a lot of considerations for price tag. CP3 is like a Rolls Royce that can’t stay running. Lowry is like an Always Faithful Ford Pickup.
Forget about game efficiency, let’s look at price efficiency.
I’ve been touting the skills of Lowry since last year, and I wish I could remember who the argument/deliberation was with but I placed Lowry over Rondo towards the end of the season and stated we would beat the Celtics. Guess what, we did and Lowry tore up Rondo…. I hate to be the dude who says I told you so, but I told you so.
Great analysis, good read.
welcome, welcome!
So much of Kyle’s value is tied up in his ridiculous (for a guard) rebounding percentages, jut as so much of Chris Paul’s value is tied up in his ridiculous assist percentages (and assist-to-turnover ratio). Both are very underrated qualities, particularly rebounding. Lowry has a decided edge in rebounding, though(as you point out) Chris Paul’s rebounding has always been an overlooked portion of his game (I always loved bringing this up when arguing with Utah fans about Deron vs. CP3).
There is no question that, across his career, Chris Paul is several notches higher than Lowry. This year, however, I think you can make a good case that Lowry has outperformed Chris Paul, but that is as much a product of Chris Paul having a more human season than normal as it is a product of Lowry’s extraordinary play.
And I definitely remember Adam Everett. He was unquestionably the best defensive shortstop in baseball for about three years (then he broke his leg, got older, and never really got it back), though this was seemingly only ever appreciated by Astros fans and the peeps coming up with meaningful defensive stats. The comparison between Everett’s defense and Lowry’s rebounding is very astute.
thanks for the welcome!
That’s one thing I failed to mention in my post. the rebounding for Lowry and the assist to TO ratio for Paul really do balance the playing field. Everett was a killer. I miss the astros…
Adam Everett was so underrated
He was the Bible at the SS, had a great run saved / year stat and wonderful range
No doubt Paul is the superior player from a basic talent standpoint, that cannot be discounted. Lowry on the other hand is simply a relentless worker. Not that Paul is not competitive, but the mental make-up of Kyle Lowry who has been essentially undervalued up to the point when the rockets traded for him compare to a hailed all star from the beginning in Chris Paul is very different. CP3 has nothing to prove, he simply is one of the best PGs in the leagues, Lowry, on the other hand, has to constantly prove that he’s starter quality, that he can change momentum in game, that he can provide the energy the team needs
I also think people need to remember that having a PG as your best player has not worked out for championship teams, in fact a lot of those teams ends up being very poorly constructed due to the belief that a good PG can cover up short comings of other players, which is true to a certain extent, but the magic is short lived.
Kwame Brown and Dwight Howard both play basketball...
Is that a good comparasion? Only joking, I know the fact that Lowry is being compared to Chris Paul is a good thing.
Sonicsgate: A movie about how the Sonics were stolen from Seattle.
I play basketball too...
and so does Joe Johnson. Now can I have my max contract please? Haha.
Think about it, Lowry has moved ahead of Deron Williams in the point guard discussion and into Chris Paul territory. In case you forgot, those are the two guys who play point guard for the Olympic team. Not that I want Lowry playing in the Olympics. With our luck he’d get hurt. After running into Scola when we play Argentina, ending both of their careers. This is a hypothetical situation that won’t ever happen and I’m on the verge of tears. This is bad.
Was too far to huck a beer at a Stro’s player as per bone’s request. Jess (girlfriend) said I was too far, I said challenge accepted, a security guard said guess again.-BD34
That is the reason I don't go to Battle Red Blog. I would be too rational and guys would flag my posts as spam.-batman713
I think Paul is still the better player, his ability to keep his dribble alive in the lane is amazing.
However, when comparing salaries, Lowry is without a doubt the better bargain. Furthermore, he is less injury prone, Paul has missed many games in the past seasons.
For the same price and with both players healthy, I would almost always pick Paul over Lowry, for his ability to win games by himself and the star power he brings to a team. However, right now, I would much rather have Lowry on my team. He is becoming a better player every day and knows how to affect every facet of the game, pass, rebound, score, and play defense. Give credit to Morey for locking him up for the next few years on that amazing contract
I would rather have lowry on the team for the contract.
CP3 is still better… but that difference is quite that large anymore.
"Slammed that hoe on the counter like I just got 35 on the domino table!!"
Sherrod Harris
I agree with OAL
This was a great read, and welcome to the blog. I can’t wait for your next post.
And as good as Kevin Martin and Luis Scola are, and even with how Samuel Dalembert has become a beast, I still think you have to point out that Chris Paul plays for a team with better players. I know Vinny is maligned as a coach, but still when you have Chauncey, Caron, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan in your starting lineup that’s pretty nice.
And it’s been a long time since I’ve seen a competitor like Lowry on the Rockets. The guy never screws around, he’s always looking to take advantage at all times. And one more reason I think we’re all gushing over him is that he breaks the mold of Rockets starting point guards of the last 20+ years. Kenny Smith was an adequate point guard who generally didn’t even close games for us. Then came Matt Maloney. Then Steve Francis. Then the Bob Sura/Mike James combo platter. Then Rafer Alston. Then Aaron Brooks. We’ve never had that guy who could get you 8 assists a night consistently.
And why is no one mentioning the 0.4 bpg vs. 0 bpg stat? Lowry blocks shots too! DIKEMBE 2.0, minus the gold trafficking charges…
Was too far to huck a beer at a Stro’s player as per bone’s request. Jess (girlfriend) said I was too far, I said challenge accepted, a security guard said guess again.-BD34
That is the reason I don't go to Battle Red Blog. I would be too rational and guys would flag my posts as spam.-batman713
And it’s been a long time since I’ve seen a competitor like Lowry on the Rockets.
Well, I think Yao was a competitor. He didn’t quite express it the same way, but it was clear that he wanted to win. He spent so much time working on his game, and I never saw him just give up in a game. Of course, it seems like a long time since he played for the Rockets, even if it really wasn’t that long ago.
And, obviously, Scola is a competitor, and so was Landry a bunch of other guys. But, yeah, I get what you mean. Lowry’s a little different. Hence the misdemeanor battery stuff.
I made a comparison between Lowry and World Peace (nee Artest) last night, and if you remember, Artest was crazy competitive in ‘09. I remember this game pretty vividly — McGrady couldn’t go, Artest had hurt one of his ankles in the game prior, and it looked like he wouldn’t be able to go, either. But Artest went out and played and seemingly willed the team to a double overtime win against the Jazz..
I remember that game just as vividly, actually
I was at a hotel on the West Coast and watching gamecast and yelling at the computer into the wee hours of the morning.
And obviously Landry, Scola, and Yao are competitors. The fact is playing in the NBA makes you a competitor, just by definition. But I’m glad you understand what I meant. There’s something beneath the surface there. Scola isn’t intense, but he’s constantly hustling. Landry was like that, too. And Yao was a model competitor in every sense of the word. If you had 12 guys with Yao’s dedication, you’d win 10 titles. It may just be the fact that I see Lowry running around with the ball whereas those guys were more “stationary” on offense. At least comparatively.
Was too far to huck a beer at a Stro’s player as per bone’s request. Jess (girlfriend) said I was too far, I said challenge accepted, a security guard said guess again.-BD34
That is the reason I don't go to Battle Red Blog. I would be too rational and guys would flag my posts as spam.-batman713
Oh
And you have to throw Chuck Hayes into any discussion about passion. Without it there’s no way he finds his way into the NBA.
Was too far to huck a beer at a Stro’s player as per bone’s request. Jess (girlfriend) said I was too far, I said challenge accepted, a security guard said guess again.-BD34
That is the reason I don't go to Battle Red Blog. I would be too rational and guys would flag my posts as spam.-batman713
Thanks for the kind words, sir.
I agree with the notion that Paul is able to utilize better players with better hands. I’d be interested to know how many of Kyle’s turnovers are unforced by an inability of his teammates to be ready for a FUCKING pass.
I think Lowry’s toughness is my favorite part about him. He doesn’t let his teammates get away with anything. His intensity and desire to win is almost Kobe-like. I feel like this possession is the epitome of Kyle’s toughness. Pumps me up every time. I probably watched it 1000 times during the lockout.
And hell yeah about the blocks.
Love that possession
LOVE IT! I’m too lazy to find it, but game 4 against the Blazers in the fourth quarter he just went for a rebound on offense that you know Aaron Brooks and 90% of point guards don’t even think about getting. It sounds stupid to say, “He just wanted the ball more,” and I hate cliches with a passion, but that’s what happened.
I don’t think anyone has ever questioned his passion for the game. Obviously nobody ever questions Paul either (and they shouldn’t-dude goes hard every night), but it’s nice to know effort won’t be an issue. You can blame the front office and ownership for the players they have, and you can blame the coach for the players he chooses to play, but I’ve always thought that you can only blame players who don’t give a crap. That extends to their effort in the offseason and practice. And I think that’s one reason T-Mac was so frustrating. You could see flashes of that inner fire, but it burned hot and cold. With Lowry and the guys OAL mentioned, it’s constant.
Was too far to huck a beer at a Stro’s player as per bone’s request. Jess (girlfriend) said I was too far, I said challenge accepted, a security guard said guess again.-BD34
That is the reason I don't go to Battle Red Blog. I would be too rational and guys would flag my posts as spam.-batman713
Let's not talk about TMac
That asshole goes off for 13 in 30 seconds and decides he’s done-zo.
TMac cared.
I think McGrady’s problem was the same as James Worthy’s — he just made everything look so easy.
I mean, he played in ‘08 basically on one knee and a fucked up back when he could have easily called it quits after Yao went down. Instead he led that team into the playoffs. Yeah, they were defeated, but he put up good numbers that series (it was a series I was unfortunately largely deprived of watching, since it was on NBATV and I didn’t get it that year).
You don’t play through pain because you’re a quitter. You don’t rehab for the better part of two years because you’re a quitter. He just looks dopey and had a lot of expectations heaped on him, so he got labeled as such.
by Only_A_Lad on Jan 24, 2012 11:54 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I wasn't putting him down
Just pointing out that the intensity factor for Lowry and T-Mac is different to me.
Was too far to huck a beer at a Stro’s player as per bone’s request. Jess (girlfriend) said I was too far, I said challenge accepted, a security guard said guess again.-BD34
That is the reason I don't go to Battle Red Blog. I would be too rational and guys would flag my posts as spam.-batman713
great post
Chris Paul is the better player, but is injury proned at a young age scares me off. I take Lowry on that fact.
by wdh001 on Jan 24, 2012 5:18 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Great write-up.
Welcome to the community
Sonicsgate: A movie about how the Sonics were stolen from Seattle.
Really good post
my only concern about Lowry is how long he can keep this up. Maybe he really has turned the corner and this will be the norm from now on, but we’ve all seen players peak and take a steady decline. I hope he keeps it up because he’s only 25 (almost 26), and my guess would be that he continues this kind of play.
by twinkilling0303 on Jan 24, 2012 5:57 PM CST reply actions
I share the same fears
but I think Lowry should be able to keep this up. We always knew he could pass, rebound and get to the rim. The only thing he’s really “added” to his game is the more consistent jumper. If he’s going to fall off in some area, I would guess that would be it.
The fact that he's playing 40 minutes a night doesn't help me.
A sharp decline in a year or so isn’t out of the question.
Sonicsgate: A movie about how the Sonics were stolen from Seattle.
I love Lowry,
but CP3’s ability to create his own shot is superior to Lowry’s, and that’s why I’d rather have CP3 over KLow.
That, and Paul’s superior TO rate and FG %.
"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.
Nice article.
I’ll just say this. We’re having a conversation about whether Kyle Lowry is as good as the player commonly believed to be the best PG in the NBA. And it’s a real conversation, it’s not clear who is better right now.
Dollar for dollar it isn’t particularly close.
"Each in turn... volunteered his suggestions, his invaluable suggestions."
Where do we get these guys?
We have tons of lurkers who never post anything, then come out of nowhere and bust some knowledge upside my head. Welcome, good sir! A good read.
"I’m not dumb. I just have a command of thoroughly useless information." Bill Watterson~Calvin and Hobbes
by The Chuckwagon has rolled on on Jan 25, 2012 7:21 AM CST reply actions
I like the right up a lot and I completely agree.
This is just my eyeball view of the matchup -
Lowry is a much more up tempo PG than Chris Paul. Despite being great on the break, CP3 likes to play at a slower pace which allows him to control the tempo and limit unnecessary turnovers. You never see an out of control fast break from a Chris Paul team like you often see with the Houston Rockets.
Chris Paul always has the ball on a string and is the best at dribbling through the paint. He rarely goes for the flashy pass but keeps his dribble alive and finds crevices that no other player can go through (Nash comes close).
Chris Paul can be your teams offense and you can rely on him to make every decision. You can’t do that with Lowry.
Lowry on the other hand does not dominate the ball like CP3 does despite having a higher usage. He also has more turnovers because of the tempo.
Lowry is a much better rebounder even though Chris Paul is good for the position. And rebounding PGs really help on a fast break (Rajon Rondo in the playoffs comes to mind).
While Lowry is awesome, he does not control the game like Chris Paul does. However, this does not diminish what Lowry brings to the table. They are quite different in their approach to the game.
In the end, there is a reason why the difference between a Chris Paul team and the 3rd best team in the clutch is as big as the 3rd best to like the 25th best.
The point about turnovers and pace is a good one.
The other thing is – Lowry’s turnover rate is good, Pauls is outstanding.
"Each in turn... volunteered his suggestions, his invaluable suggestions."
CP3 is the most careful and calculating player in the game. If healthy, IMO, he’s the 3rd most valuable player in the NBA after Lebron and Dwight Howard because he completely controls an offense in a way no other player can.
I’m not trying to diminish how awesome Lowry is. This is a golden age of PGs and Lowry has seperated himself from the pack.
It’s just CP3’s control over an offense is unmatched by anyone since Magic.
Part of Chuck Hayes
lives on in Lowry. Small stature but bulldog-like rebound tracking skills
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