Houston Rockets Offensive Woes: It's the Free Throws, Stupid
by Only_A_Lad on Jan 5, 2012 2:18 PM CST
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After a few bad losses, it's natural to look around and try to assign some blame. The Rockets are 2-4 on an early schedule that is kinda brutal, but that's not terribly surprising. Daryl Morey himself said they were looking at a number like 4-6 or even 3-7 as decent enough records in the first ten games of the season. The Rockets are still in this thing, and suggesting that they aren't able to recover from a two-game losing streak in January is at least a little silly. So I'm not really looking to blame someone right now. The Rockets have played tough teams, and they beat two of them handily, lost three in no-contest fashion, and lost another more closely. It could be a lot worse.
But there are some significant problems with this Rockets team that opposing teams have exposed in the first six games.The biggest problem (bizarrely, for the Rockets) is the offense [edit: okay, maybe it's the defense]. There are other problems with the Rockets, definitely: Scola's rebounding numbers are way down, Lowry's is really awesome but his turnover numbers are dangerously high, and Jordan Hill seems to be our best non-Scola big man right now. But the single biggest difference between the 2011 Rockets (winning record!) and the 2012 Rockets (we'll see!) is the offense.
The Rockets' offense has declined a lot since last year. Last year they scored a little over 111 points per 100 possessions, good for 4th in the league. This year they're scoring 104.1 per 100, good for only 13th. The offense is slower, (there's a difference of about two possessions per game) but not enormously so -- the main difference is that many other teams (the Blazers, for instance) have gotten much, much faster, and so the Rockets have slipped from 8th in pace to 14th. My early assumption was that at least some of the slippage in offensive efficiency had to do with the slower pace, but the Rockets haven't slowed down enough to really account for that.
The main problem on offense is a much greater propensity for jump shots. Going off of the possession statistics provided by 82games.com, the Rockets' offense has gone from shooting jump shots 67% of the time in 2011 to 74% this season. Most of the difference comes from shots in close to the basket (layups and post shots), which have declined from being used in 29% of possessions to just 22%. And, yet despite the Rockets' offense getting away from the basket, the Rockets' effective field goal percentage (FG% adjusted for threes counting more than twos) has actually improved -- 51.4% compared to last season's 50.3%.
So what's up with the Rockets? Why does the offense suck so bad (you know, comparatively)?
Last year the Rockets were basically the True Shooting Poster Children. In case you're not aware, True Shooting Percentage is a statistic that takes eFG%'s accounting for the difference between threes and twos and joins it with free throw shooting. True Shooting tries to capture how important it is to get to the line (and, secondarily, how important it is to make the shots you take at the line). The Rockets last year were very, very good at that: #7 in the league in free throw attempts per field goal attempt at .219.
This year, the Rockets are dead last in the league in FT/FGA, and it's not even really close. The Rockets are at .138, while #29 (the offensively hapless Bucks) are at .164. There's about as much distance between #24 (the old and jump-shotty Suns) and #29 as there is between Milwaukee and Houston. Ouch.
Okay, so the general problem is free throws. That's not terribly surprising, right? It's something everyone has noticed (though I didn't think it accounted for so much of the problem), after all. So who's to blame?
Kevin Martin is certainly the leader in this decline. During the 2011 season, he had a free throw attempt for roughly every two field goals he tried (FTA/FGA = a ridiculous .52). Now he gets one for every five tries (FTA/FGA = a boring .19). According to 82games, he has gone from drawing a foul on 16.8% of his shots to just 3.3%. He isn't getting to the basket like he used to. Last year he got close shots on 20% of his field goal attempts, but now he's at the basket only 14%. Just doing the math in my head, that seems to account for almost all of the decline in his foul numbers.
But this is an across-the-board decline for the Rockets. Martin is leading the retreat, as it were, but the only player who hasn't declined from his numbers last season is (naturally) Kyle Lowry (15.9% fouled vs 9.6% last year; .42 FTA/FGA vs .31 last year).
That leads me to believe that the problem is the offense they're running right now. Lowry has upped his free throw numbers at least partly because the offense now runs almost completely through him. He drives to the basket and either takes it to the hoop or finds the open man (usually Scola at mid range, it seems). There's less back-cutting and high-post passing, which means that while Lowry's assist numbers have skyrocketed, overall assist numbers are down, and so are the number of players actually getting to the rim. Martin is so hard hit partly because he's in a different offense (but then again he played in a different offense in Sacramento after Adelman left, right?), partly because he's handling the ball less (he's being assisted on 60% of his shots now, rather than 53% in 2011), and partly because of a supposed toughening of the rules on what constitutes "contact."
So what can the Rockets do to help fix the problem? McHale has done a fine job working with the defense (the Rockets have improved from 28th to 19th in defensive efficiency NVM, the defense sucks, too. Mixed up 2011 and 2012; the Rockets have fallen from 19th to 28th in defensive efficiency), but maybe he needs to go to more plays from the Adelman offense. We've seen the Rockets use some of Adelman's system this year to great effect -- Chase Budinger and Martin both got to the basket in the past few games on the sort of ball-in-the-high-post, back-cutting wing man offense that Adelman used so often last year.
On the other hand, it's possible the Rockets are taking a longer view of this, putting Kyle Lowry firmly in the driver's seat so that he develops. Lowry is certainly developing, but the team offense as a whole has taken a step back. Maybe, in a month or so, the investment in Lowry's development will pay off, but if the Rockets really want to win now, perhaps they should return to the old ways of doing things. Maybe the Rockets offense can rebound on its own, anyways. Going from 7th to last in free throws is so ridiculous it just has to regress to the mean, right?
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Nice write up.
To me, it’s a matter of mentality for Martin. He’s not driving with the ball near as often as he used to. I think that’s more of a problem than the supposedly handicapping rule changes.
We’ve got to be patient because this is still a huge work in progress. The Rockets struggled early in their first year under Adelman and took a while to get used to his system, etc. Wouldn’t expect this team to go out and win 6 in a row without much of a training camp to work with.
The Dream Shake ...on Twitter.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak
I think part of Martin not driving it in as much anymore is because he is not getting the calls
It seems like 80% of the time he does drive it in, there is contact and not whistle is blown, and a turnover is created starting a fast break on the other end.
If I notice Im not getting any calls, im going to drive less and shoot more. His fragile bones cant handle driving it in to the basket any harder, a la Lowry.
Can you really blame him??
I have a spreadsheet that shows the individual differences in free throw performance. I’ll try to post it later.
by Only_A_Lad on Jan 5, 2012 2:23 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Also, have to disagree with your point about McHale doing a "fine job" with the defense.
Houston is third to last in defensive efficiency. To me, that’s a much greater indicator of success than points allowed per game.
The Dream Shake ...on Twitter.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak
Gonna do a post about this, probably.
The Dream Shake ...on Twitter.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak
oh shit
Guess was looking at the wrong column. Thought i was looking at def eff
by Only_A_Lad on Jan 5, 2012 3:14 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Actually,
I mixed up 2011 and 2012. Reading that we were 28th last year was kind of weird, should have set off alarm bells.
Westphal fired as Kings coach
On a Rockets related note though, the lack of free throw shooting sucks, but we have to execute on offense better, making more shots that we should and not giving away the ball.
Dallas and Houston fan making it work. Gig 'em!
by OJ ATM on Jan 5, 2012 3:07 PM CST via mobile reply actions
The Fantasy Value for Cousins just went up....
New coaching strategy: Keep Cousins happy, run the offense thru him…..
I pity the fool that takes that job
it is clear who runs that team. How do you tell Cousins anything now?
Great points, all
We’ve got to get to the free throw line more often, no doubt about it. It may be the new rules affecting Martin, but that shouldn’t account for everyone else.
Also, after playing two games in LA (are we sure the NBA doesn’t actually own the Lakers, not the Hornets?) you can kind of expect those numbers to be bad. However, if it doesn’t change over the next couple of games, especially home games, I’ll start to get really worried.
Was too far to huck a beer at a Stro’s player as per bone’s request. Jess (girlfriend) said I was too far, I said challenge accepted, a security guard said guess again.-BD34
That is the reason I don't go to Battle Red Blog. I would be too rational and guys would flag my posts as spam.-batman713
It’s easy to blame the ref’s & say shoot more free throws but that can’t change the way you play the game. The minute you adjust for the way refs are calling the game is the minute the opposition has beaten you. Rockets are talented & just keep doing what works for them, no need to jump to conclusions now.
Also for all you rockets fans out there, check out this new site I found where I could pay to ask Courtney Lee a question and I received a personalized video response back from him…www.proliveconnect.com , it has a bunch of athletes from various sports but a real cool concept to ask athletes anything you’ve wanted to ask them before.
I laughed when I saw the name of the site.
But next year, it will be legit!
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Jan 5, 2012 3:48 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Clippers fan here
Sure, the Rockets could get to the charity stripe some more, but that is far from the reason the Rockets are struggling (and in my estimation, will continue to struggle).
When your opponent is putting up a 57% shooting night (which was not buoyed by fluke jump shooting numbers, but by putting up 62 in the paint on just 39 attempts), without a single blocked shot, while only forcing 7 turnovers, the problem is very clearly defense. Chris Paul was routinely deep in the paint, Griffin and Jordan had high percentage buckets all night, and even Caron Butler and Chris Paul ended up with a few easy buckets around the rim.
Only an absurd amount of extra free throw attempts would correct that…
1) I’m just talking about the offense.
2) I’m talking about the whole season so far, not just one game.
Right
Offense and defense are not orthogonal variables. If you’re not forcing turnovers and have the league’s worst FG% against, you’ll be playing half-court offense more than anyone else. Of course you’ll end up with low free throw attempts if you’re out in transition the least (let alone playing against a defense that doesn’t have to exert much offensively to be efficient).
Rotating Jordan Hill, Samuel Dalembert, and Hasheem Thabeet at center is a serious issue. Dalembert is a proven below-average center, Jordan Hill lacks length, and Hasheem Thabeet is still as raw as he was at UConn. Even Trey Thompkins proved useful when Scola was off the court, since he had basically no defensive responsibility when those three were his assignment. And many of us at Clips Nation consider Trey a slow 3 in a 4’s body..
Last night was a case-in-point on just how screwed the Rockets are from Stern’s rejection of the Paul → Lakers deal, (and subsequent rejection of a Gasol/Nene Rockets front court).
Apologies, but...
Dalembert is a proven below-average center
Your argument is invalid.
The Dream Shake ...on Twitter.
"I think girls are probably just better shooters." - Steve Novak
Yeah,
Dalembert is basically an average NBA center whose deficiencies (offense, basically) are more than made up for by his considerable strengths (rebounding, defense). The problem is that over the past five years he has been paid like an elite center, which he isn’t.
He's also notably inconsistent.
I stand by my statement that he’s a below-average center (with the caveat that I mean ‘starting’ center). APBR had him 209th in the league last year — 36th at center.
You can’t really make an argument for Howard, Bynum, Nene, Horford, Chandler, Noah, Bogut, Marc Gasol, Monroe, or Jefferson. I’d argue that Ibaka, Okafor, Jordan, Gortat, Hibbert, McGee, Kaman, and Perkins as well. The leaves Dalembert around Haywood/Camby territory — around 20th in the league.
And this isn’t including tweeners who get plenty of minutes at C, like the Tim Duncan/Pao Gasol group, or any of the younger guys who I’d probably rather take on a roster. It’s just to show that he’s proven, over the course of a ten year career now, to be a below-average starter.
And BPro has him at a little over two WARP and a .48 winning percentage.
BRef (the Dean Oliver stuff) has him as a career .111 WS/48. WoW has him at .188 WP48. Only one of those (BPro’s WARP) lists him as below average.
Also note that those APBR rankings were for over the last three seasons, and they included a lot of guys who have declined significantly or retired (for instance, I absolutely agree that Yao Ming was loads better than Dalembert, but it’s kind of irrelevant). Simply throwing out a ranking based on a composite score from PER, WP48, and one adjusted +/- stat doesn’t really get at the heart of why he’s valuable.
Even beyond that, there’s an enormous spread between the top and bottom of the league’s players. It shouldn’t surprise anyone that an average player can have ten or twenty players in front of him, because there are a hundred scrubs behind him. Dalembert has been able to stay in the league this long because he has demonstrable skills that help teams win on the basketball court. Denying that because other players are better than him is silly.
He’s a great rebounder and a good defender, and those skills make him a valuable player.
to be fair
they’ll probably start him after he gets in shape and gets more practice in.
Or maybe not. Who knows?
If this is sarcasm
it means that you believed that someone would have the argument that Samuel Dalembert is a poor center in general, which is certainly laughable. What I meant is that by him being the primary center, your center situation is below-average when he is on the court.
You can argue about the benchmark for average all you want, it’s just semantics. And you didn’t even bother to dispute that I named more than 15 centers that are better than him — by my definition, qualifying him as “below-average”.
The bottom line is that between Dalembert, Hill, and Thabeet, the Clippers weakness — frontcourt depth — was never exposed, and a 2nd round pick + Bryan Cook wasn’t a liability for the Clippers, as it had been in all prior games.
That you (and others here) define ‘average’ differently than I doesn’t “invalidate” the argument. It actually highlights the stage of denial here more than anything. For crying out loud, your team is last in the league in FG% against, third-to-last in creating turnovers, and second-to-last in points in the paint allowed…and you’re complaining about the definition of average in relation to a player jettisoned by the 76ers and Kings in the last two seasons!
What I meant is that by him being the primary center, your center situation is below-average when he is on the court.
This is a nothing sentence. "By him being the primary center, you center situation is below-average when he is on the court." You’re just saying he’s a below-average center there. This can be rewritten as "When he’s on the court, you have a below-average center." Okay, that’s what we’ve been arguing. That adds nothing to the argument.
You really, really need to work on clearing up your writing. Holy fuck, dude.
by my definition, qualifying him as “below-average”.
And I told you why your definition is problematic. You can re-read that post to find out what that point was, but you’ve given me zero reason to change my definition. My definition at least has the backing of the statistical fact that there’s a vast discrepancy between a guy like Dalembert and the sort of scrubs you can just grab out of the D-League (the theoretical "replacement player"), just as there’s a vast difference between the value of a guy like Dalembert and the elite of the league. That’s the way the talent distribution in the NBA works. It’s a product of the relatively tiny number of athletes who can play NBA-level basketball.
it’s just semantics.
It’s hardly "just semantics." "Average" means something very real — it means you’re producing a number of wins equal to a theoretical average player, and a lot of metrics out there say Dalembert is at that level. Some say he’s better than that, some say he’s worse. My money is on him being worth as much as the average player.
The bottom line is that between Dalembert, Hill, and Thabeet, the Clippers weakness — frontcourt depth — was never exposed, and a 2nd round pick + Bryan Cook wasn’t a liability for the Clippers, as it had been in all prior games.
And? The Rockets’ frontcourt isn’t a good defensive unit overall. The only ones who might be above-average on defense are Dalembert and Patterson. I don’t know why you think this is being disputed. It’s not at issue in the article. Tom didn’t dispute it. I didn’t dispute it. You’re just jawing about nothing here.
Jesus
Sorry about that urine I dropped in your Cherrios (or something?!?).
It is semantics when my definition of below-average is ‘below the median’ and yours isn’t — you even invoked “replacement” which was never the argument. OBVIOUSLY playing Samuel Dalembert is a better option than playing Solomon Jones, but who the hell would ever have that argument? But, just as obviously, there are at least 15 centers in the NBA better than Dalembert which places him below the median of starting-calibur NBA centers — by my definition (and many others) making him a below-average center.
My entire point was that you don’t get to the charity stripe because the defense is horrendous, and that no transition game coupled with no turnovers will necessitate fewer free-throw attempts than the average team. And you’re still arguing about the practicality of one set of statistics versus other objective criteria.
Clippers are one knee away from ..... well below median
its good for a franchise to get hope after nothing but shit results (what is it 2 winning seasons since 84). Hope Reggie Evens gets a new lease on life because he will be needed.
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Brush off the hostility, man.
This board has a nasty habit of getting defensive when reality sets in. Consequentially if you say something about Kevin Martin half of this board will act like they just caught you boning their wife in front of them.
by BD34 on Jan 6, 2012 8:35 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Of course defense affects the offense, but it isn’t the primary reason the Rockets’ offense has faltered this season.* That’s what this is about: why is the Rockets’ offense so ordinary so suddenly, when last year it was elite?
These are basically the same players who were part of that elite offense last year, too. The only differences are that Battier and Hayes have been replaced (more or less) with Williams/Lee and Dalembert. Only the loss of Hayes, I think, significantly changes the offense, and that’s for two reasons: he drew fouls at a pretty good clip and (Tom has written about this) he was an excellent passer in Adelman’s offense.
The problems with the Rockets defense are pretty obvious, and to me the question “Why is the Rockets’ defense worse than it was last year?” isn’t particularly interesting (prove me wrong, Tom! I’m sure you will). They exchanged Hayes for Hill. Hill has one of Hayes’s strengths (rebounding) and none of the others. So the post defense sucks really hard right now. Maybe that will change when Dalembert gets back in shape. Maybe.
- — Moreover, the Rockets aren’t really much different than they were last year at forcing turnovers. They were 28th (.126) in the league in turnover percentage last year, versus 27th (.117) now.
THE TEAM IS SOFT #wordapp #yes/shouting
Clippers fan is 100% correcto!
We are no.1 on opp FG% allowed
Why do teams shoot nearly 50% because they are dunking, shooting wide open shots, lay ups, etc.
Add to that giving up other defensive stats like rebounds and blocks nightly it should indicate our problems.
I give Kevin McHale at least some time before you start judging his methods (he has had NO TIME with these guys). I get the feeling by his mins he is playing some guys that he wants to win but we don’t have the cattle.
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The big problems
are on the ball defense, and getting to the free throw line. I actually thing the team defense as a unit does a good job rotating and getting to their spots, but the first man keeps getting beat. There just aren’t any one on one defenders. You can move your feet and try as hard as you can, but it doesn’t make you any better at it. Also the only one being aggressive in the offense is Kyle HAM Lowry. I hope more and more everyday that Martin is on his way out, and the Rockets play T Will to see if he can be an answer on this team instead of a question mark.
Losing Hayes also means no on-court defensive leader to call out the defensive rotations on the floor.
Battier used to do that before he was traded.
We can’t run Adelman’s offense so much because we have different personnel. We don’t have a good high-post passer like Hayes was. TWill and JHill can’t run it, that’s why RA benched them last season.
You have to hand it to our Rockets though. When they know they’re over-matched, like against ORL and LAC, they don’t want to expend unnecessary effort. I think that’s smart.
You know, this post just reminds me of my attitude on some things.
You don’t really need advanced stats to do much of anything but salvage excuses to be mediocre. I got criticized for mentioning this team is taking too many transition and rhythm breaking jumpers, this post says they’re taking too many jumpers. There’s no advanced stat for “making horrible decisions” but watching the games certainly helps to point that out. I complained we’re not driving and trying to get calls, when your game is predicated on jumpers you won’t be seeing too many whistles. You gotta make something happen.
I don’t know, I guess when the Clippers fan came in, used observation and a few advanced stats (minimal honestly) then immediately win shares and all this other stuff that, frankly, doesn’t matter, it seemed like manufacturing reasons to say “Hey, we don’t suck, look at THESE numbers!” I’m still excited for the season, primarily because I’ve wanted Jordan Hill to start and I think it’ll do a huge favor for his development but I’m not about to delve into reasons why this club should or shouldn’t be above .500 in an advanced stat. They’re not playing up to par, the front line is thin though will improve, and we’re swapping over, as pointed out, from a high post big passing offense to a point guard traditional NBA set, which I think benefits us long term. We just need some more beef, a two way 2 and a better 3 than the Great White Hope starting.
I agree with you that we are settling for the long shots a lot more. The reason we are taking a lot of transition jumpers is because it was one of the main ways we scored last season. I think Martin was something like 55-60% last year on transition threes—so much so that Clyde even ended up calling them layups. Obviously, he’s not been successful this year. You’ll notice that after missing the first one or two transition 3’s, Martin put that shot away. But when the shot is falling, it’s worth taking, especially given that our current roster doesn’t allow us to create any advantageous match-ups inside (with the exception of Scola).
Our roster doesn’t really feature anyone who can drive hard at the basket especially since Adelman’s offense was predicated on backcuts and slashes, so players did not have to create the shot into the lane. If Terrence Williams could finish ATR then this would solve a lot of our problems since he has the quickness and handles to get to the rim. Sadly, he’s been very circumspect at the rim.
The only guy we have who can play inside is Scola, and even his game is under-the-rim, more relying on outfoxing his defender. He’s not going to get to the line all that much.
In conclusion, with our current roster, we’re just going to have to get our jumper working early to open up the lane.
by sohum on Jan 6, 2012 3:50 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Its easy to say when we lost Adelman
that we could just continue to run the same offense and just improve our d. But it’s not that easy. Adelman is a proven great coach, and under him we would get easy bucket after easy bucket, that is not happening now. Easy baskets allow you too blow teams out and will keep you in games. I am still waitng to see our coach add some easy alley hoop plays since we have two centers who can thrown it down. I know its early but our coach needs to step it up as well as our team.
by since86rocketsfan on Jan 6, 2012 10:23 AM CST reply actions
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