I've been asked how I come up with my analysis. It's usually a stream of thought running parallel to each other. Here it is in full research detail. Skip to the last paragraph for the full conclusion. I realize that this will be extremely boring to 99% of you. But i can't help myself.
I'm not going to pull out all my data here so it's not going to be as robust as i'd like. The future is still hazy. I'm waiting for one more data point before i go all out on the future. But here's how it's shaping up. Let's start with Pau Gasol.
1. Gasol is going to get traded. Nash is the only thing that has kept gasol from being off traded. But probably not before trade deadline. Plus the fact that his value is so tremendously low right now. Kupchak isn't an idiot.
2. Gasol is paid 19mill this season and in 2013, he will be on a expiring contract. The trick here is to not focus on the Rockets. The wolves and the raptors have already made offers to the Lakers for Gasol. Crappy offers.
3. So what crappy offer will the Lakers take that would be better than bargnani/calderon and Pekovic/derrick? Patterson? Morris? in any sitch, it would require a massive amount of players on the rockets' end. Not feasible. But we've always wanted Gasol. He is 32 years old AND has an expiring contract next year(2013). If he PLAYS well this year, he will be easy to lay off next year. Especially since 2013 is trading time for a bunch of 2015 free agents such LMA, Marc Gasol, Carmelo, Kyrie Irving, deandre jordan, etc. Just like 2012 was a good time to trade Kevin Martin's expiring contract for 2014 free agent James Harden.
But in all practical sense, Gasol won't be traded before the deadline as Kupchak isn't an idiot. Removing Gasol gets you back nothing. Especially if Nash can make Gasol look like a superstar for next year's Gasol trade.
Kevin Love. Here's where things get interesting.
He just insulted the owner and general manager of the timberwolves via yahoo's woj. That's national media. The Owner of the Twolves is Mr. Taylor. He's a senator. He's a self made man who's company is tied to printing electronics. He's trying to sell the team. He can't sell it cuz that would alien his votes. He can't afford it anymore otherwise he wouldnt be trying to sell it (printing is dinosaur technology). Depending on the personality of Mr. Taylor and Kahn, this could go both ways.
1. Kahn gets fired.
2. Love gets immediately traded.
In the first trajectory, we'd have adelman taking over general manager duties---that would be great.
in the second situation, Love would be traded to a crappy team, in great swaths of vindictiveness. Probably the Suns via a helper 3rd team.
The possible scenarios are still dangling in the air because it all depends on Taylor's personality.
In any case, i doubt anything happens this year as most of these situations require vast amounts of Public Relations footwork to pull off. But the first steps have begun.
Gasol and Love are going to be traded NEXT year. Utah, thunder, Cleveland own the best draft picks.
Utah is literally stacked with good PF/Cs. Thunder literally has no Cs. I can see toronto's draft pick going to Utah while Millsap/whoever goes to Thunder. But it depends.
------Brain dump over.
Tentative predictions: Rockets will try to weasel into every trade but the rockets right now are assetless.
Unless of course, we use Lin/parsons/asik as part of the trade equation. I love Parsons as much as any of you but based on year by year statistics, Parsons does not project that highly. In fact, neither does Lin. The only real math gem here is Asik. So if you really go by Morey's personality, Parsons and Patterson are being groomed right now for the chopping block. (Look, I love Parsons. i'm just going by Morey's past moves)
So if i was Morey, the big fat target here is Kevin Love. The fact that Adelman and Kahn are really at loggerheads. For one thing, Adelman does Kahn's job better than Kahn. If you look at all the Adelman players vs Kahn players--adelman wins by a landslide. Darko? Signing Broken Roy? Not to mention the countless other screwups Kahn has had.
The timberwolves have GREAT talent projections and if they don't get injured like this year, their going to explode next year. In fact, they still might this year. Kevin Love, Kirilenko, Rubio and Pekovic are some NICE starters. So I don't think Kevin Love will force the issue too much. He's ON a talented team with a great coach who can picks great players (at least from a boxscore standpoint).
I hope to god Kevin Love got Timberwolves' management mad.
That's the wishful-hoping-the-rockets-pull-another-harden-trade in me talking.
Here's the final conclusion.
Kahn is fired.
P.S. one of the more interesting things is Eric Gordon. He's definitely faking his injury. He's trying to force a trade from the Hornets. Obviously, he wants to go on a contender. Failing that, the two teams most willing to trade for him would be the Phoenix Suns as well as the Pacers (judging by past history and team need.) In order for Morey to grab Ryan Anderson, the real prize, the rockets rooks need to do EXTREMELY well this year. Hornets need a PG. Pacers need..everything (SG and PF being their weakest future positions. Nothing you can do about Hibbert. You buy it, you broke it.)
It kindah explains why the rookies aren't being played right now. If some idiot wants to make a trade deadline deal, our rooks are blank slates, it'd be a perfect gamble. There is no point in providing more information to would be buyers!
Secondly, the rooks only need a few games of stellar gameplay to fool the dumber GMs/owners in the NBA. The longer they train, the better their chances of stellar play, and the better their trade value.