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Analysis of the last 12 years of the NBA Lottery

Because there are has been so much chatter over the last few weeks about whether or not Houston should go into "tanking mode" in order to move up in the draft and out of mediocrity, I thought I would do a simple analysis of the last 12 years of the NBA Draft.

Below are all of the bigger names that have gone in the top 14 picks (lottery in its current form) in the last 12 years of the NBA draft (back to 2000). I have broken them down in three categories:

1) Franchise Players to build a team around

2) Nice additional players to add to the franchise player in order to win it all

3) Number of top 5 picks that didn´t pan out at all.

The number before the player indicates the draft position that year.

At the end I have added a very short concluding statement as I am sure that everyone will draw their own conclusions, which I hope, they will share.


Check it out after the jump!

Franchise Players

#1 Derrick Rose (2008)

#1 Dwight Howard (2004)

#1 LeBron James (2003)

#1 Yao Ming (2002)

#1 Blake Griffin (2009) (second tier)

#2 Kevin Durant (2007)

#2 LaMarcus Aldridge (2006) (second tier)

#3 Deron Williams (2005)

#3 Carmelo Anthony (2003) (second tier…no defense)

#3 Pau Gasol (2001)

#4 Russell Westbrook (2008)

#4 Chris Paul (2005)

#4 Chris Bosh (2003)
#5 Kevin Love (2008)

#5 Dwyane Wade (2003)

#6 Brandon Roy (2006) (second tier)

#10 Andrew Bynum (2005)

*Number of franchise players each year

2011 – 0 (maybe Irving one day)

2010 – 0 (maybe Wall one day)

2009 – 1

2008 – 3

2007 – 1

2006 – 2

2005 – 3

2004 – 1

2003 – 4

2002 – 1

2001 – 1

2000 – 0

*Number of franchise players that have actually won a championship since 2000 – Bynum, Gasol, and Wade (I find this little stat very telling)

Nice Additional Players

#1 Kyrie Irving

#1 John Wall

#1 Andrea Bargnani

#1 Andrew Bogut

#1 Kenyon Martin

#2 Michael Beasley

#2 Tyson Chandler

#2 Emeka Okafor

#3 James Harden

#3 Al Horford

#3 O.J. Mayo

#3 Ben Gordon

#4 Tyreke Evans

#4 Mike Conley

#5 DeMarcus Cousins

#5 Ricky Rubio

#5 Raymond Felton

#5 Devin Harris

#5 Jason Richardson

#5 Mike Miller

#5 Jeff Green

#6 Stephen Curry

#6 Danilo Gallinari

#7 Eric Gordon

#7 Luol Deng

#7 Nene Hilario

#9 Joakim Noah

#9 . Andre Iguodala

#9 Amare Stoudemire

#10 Brook Lopez

#10 Joe Johnson

*There are many players out there who would be included in this list who were drafted after the 14th pick!

Didn´t Pan Out – analyzing career production verses spot drafted (not including 2011 or 2010 drafts – too early to tell)

#1 pick – 2 players

#2 pick – 5

#3 pick – 4

#4 pick – 5 if you include Drew Gooden (9 years at 12pts/8 rbs) and Eddy Curry (9 years at 13/5)

#5 pick – 2

Conclusions

After taking a look at the last 12 years of the NBA draft, I would have to say that I fall on the side of "not a fan of tanking." I say that based on two things: 1) I hate watching the Rockets lose, especially if they aren´t even competitive doing it 2) The NBA lottery is never a sure way to rebuild because even if you are the worst team in any given year it doesn´t mean you will pick first. And the other reason that chasing those ping pong balls to win you a championship is a flawed way to go (in my opinion) is that even if you get the superstar that you so covet, it doesn´t mean that the championship will be coming to a city near you any time soon (think Dwight Howard in 2004, LeBron James in 2003 and our very own Yao in 2002)!!!

***If we try our best and lose then so be it, but I say we don´t purposely play to lose. And I include in my definition of tanking any plan to sell off Scola and Martin so that we can run out a team of rookies and two year players knowing that they will lose for sure and then just say that we were trying to get the young guns some playing time. I call that tanking 2.0.

I am sure that you have much better conclusions than I do so let´s have them.

No cursing in title. No pirated material, such as links to online game streams. Do not cut/paste entire sections of content from other websites. Thanks.

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