Editor's Note: I bumped this to the front page for its relevance in the site's discussion and its quick and comprehensive run down of the situation. Hope y'all enjoy it and a special thanks to Rollingwave for such a thoughtful Fanpost.
Since we've been having a lot of conversation regarding trading for LMA and forming a big 3, I think there's been some significant misconception that's been commonly thrown around here, which is the focus of this article.
First, I think we need to clear the misconception of Chris Bosh, the idea now seem to be that he's the drag on the Miami Big 3 and is now essentially just a vastly overpaid role player, nothing could be further away from the truth!
The entire thing here is that, big 3s are a problem for a simple reason that can be easily explained by simple math.
1. the average game last year saw around 81 shots per game per team.
2. that means roughly 1.7 shots per min
3. Most star players, shoot about 18-20 shots a game while playing some 35-38 min, this means that they shoot about 0.4-0.6 shots per min.
4. it doesn't take a math expert to see that means 3 star = 1.2-1.8 shots per min, which is already more than the average shots a team usually takes in that time span, and no matter what sort of team you have there is no way you can only have 3 guys take all the shots obviously.
since it's literally impossible to have enough shots go around to support 3 stars, what happens when you put 3 star caliber guys together? obviously, some of them start taking less shots, and thus start to look worse.
Chris Bosh is a great example of this, BUT WHAT ABOUT BOSTON! you ask ? ummm Ray Allen's last year in Seattle, he averaged 18.7 shots, his highest average in Boston? 13.5. he had 8 strait season of scoring over 21 per game up to that point, after he got to Boston he never scored more than 17. that's a MASSIVE drop. This is also one of the bigger reason why all these years the Spurs almost never start Ginobelli, because having Him / Duncan / Parker on at the same time causes similar conflict , of course, Ginobelli is a rare case of a star caliber player willing to do this.
Folks watching the Rockets last season should already have seen first hand what it's like for a player who's game is to have the ball in his hand end up having much less of it, granted, Jeremy Lin isn't the same caliber player as Bosh or Allen, but the same logic apply, it's a wonder how most player in the NBA will look better when the offense goes through him than not.
So, in fact, Bosh isn't dragging down the big 3, he's actually the biggest reason why the big 3 actually works, because if he really just kept taking that many shots, that would probably mess up Miami's offense much more, and more importantly, he's clearly more valuable in the secondary aspect than Wade, if it was Wade that sacrificed the shots, he look way worse than what Bosh looks now.
So keep full mind that, if you get LMA, one of the 3 guys will likely look much worse than they are now. because between the 3 of them they combine for nearly 90%(!!) USG last season, it doesn't take an expert to tell you there's no way that happens if they play together, and actually , Dwight's USG was already down last year due to playing with so many stars. (as was Nash.) leave it to Kobe to still have 31% USG while playing with 3 other Hall of fame player (to be fair though, that was actually somewhat down from his peak USG)
Now the question then is, does LMA bring enough secondary things if he start to score more like a role player than a star? I think this is suspect at best, he's a very much below average rebounder at the 4 and his defense have received more negative raps than positives.
It was for these reason why I originally thought that, if we must get a 3rd star, Josh Smith might have been more ideal, since he does a lot of those off ball things very well, and many would argue he would be a much more valuable player if he gets the ball a lot less. of course, that's kinda out of the window now.
So the end conclusion is that, keep well in mind that whenever you get 3 ball dominant guys together on a lineup, something's gotta give, one of them gotta start taking a lot less shots. so you'd have to keep this full in mind, given that whoever this 3rd star might be if he comes in, it's rather obvious that he would be the guy getting the shaft . so you'd have to think carefully , would this 3rd guy you like so much look nearly as good if he shoots 5 less times a game?
This is why, most theoretically team building concept build around 2 star with a lot of good role players around them, because ... even if you get a star into this ... in all likelihood he WILL look like a role player anyway. but your spending a very lopsided amount for that.