The discussion around trading for a top 5 pick got me thinking, how have teams traded for a top 5 pick in the past? How highly do teams value these assets? Is it best to trade before or after the draft order is known? First, a data dump, then some quick thoughts.

2011. LA Clippers (8th before lottery) trade #1 pick for salary relief.

New Jersey (6th before lottery) trade #3 pick (and other assets) for Deron Williams.

Toronto (3rd before lottery) had reacquired their own pick (traded in 2009) one year before in the Chris Bosh sign and trade.

Continue reading this post »

I heard this question briefly on the radio the other day and thought it would be a great question to discuss.

The Rockets love Lowry who is a border line allstar at a very reasonable contract. The Kings and the Rockets love swaping players around. The Kings look to land a top 5 pick this year in the draft if they continue their ways.

Would you trade Lowry and a first round picks for a top 5 2012 draft pick?

The Rockets resign Dragic as their PG and get that potential super star in Houston. The Kings finally get their true point guard that that command and run the floor and get the King's superb young talent in the right direction.

Poll

Would you trade Lowry for a Top 5 Pick?

78%

Yes

173 votes

21%

No

48 votes

221 votes | Poll has closed

Bonjour, Denizens of TDS,

Though a long-time reader of the blog this will serve as only my first fanpost, so please be gentle.

One common theme that seems to come up time after time is that of what it will take for the Rockets to become a championship-worthy team. One faction supports tanking and rebuilding through the draft, discontent with years of mediocrity; another places faith in The Honorable Mr. Morey and bides its time in expectation of a trade or signing that will send us over the edge. This topic has proven the source of much discussion, debate, and flat out fighting. Wishing to avoid this and acknowledging I have nothing to add to the existing body of thought by providing my own opinion, I instead have chosen to provide a superficial glimpse of what it takes to be a contender in the NBA.

The long term goal of any NBA franchise should be to play at a higher enough level to compete in the NBA Finals, and accordingly this is what this article focuses on. What I’ve done is taken each team to appear in the Finals over the past 23 years, identified any players to be selected onto the (first, second, or third) All-NBA team on that team in the year of the Finals appearance, and looked at how that team acquired that player. The data only goes back the last 23 year because the 1988-89 season was this first to have 3 All-NBA teams; previously only 2 were selected per year.

The purpose of this post is for my noble TDSers to look at some basic data concerning what makes a team successful, more specifically how key players are attained. I’ve tried to keep it as objective as possible, so please feel free to look over what I have and solidify, question, or maybe even reform your opinions. I acknowledge that this serves as an imperfect picture of the topic at hand, and I admittedly only threw it together during a couple hours of time spent procrastinating; however I still believe it holds some merit. The degree of that merit and overall usefulness of this information is up to you to decide.

I put the juicy summary stats first with the more specific stuff underneath. Please let me know if you see any errors. Again, this was hastily thrown together, so I won’t be offended if you see something wrong with it.

Please note that the numbers of All-NBA selections used below refer to appearances, not players. For example, Michael Jordan has been an All-NBA player and appeared in the Finals in the same year 6 different times, and so he is counted 6 times, once for each occurrence.

Teams to reach Finals in past 23 years: 46

Number of teams in past 23 years to reach NBA Finals without an All-NBA selection: 5

Number of teams in past 23 years to win NBA Finals without an All-NBA selection: 1

All-NBA selections reaching finals in year of selection in past 23 years: 61

Method of Acquisition:

Draft: 40 (66%)

Trade: 16 (26%)

Free Agency: 5 (8%)

Pick in Draft:

1-5: 23 (57.5%)

6-14: 14 (35%)

14-30: 3 (7.5%)

Second Round: 0

2010-2011: Heat vs. Mavericks

• · Heat:

LeBron James: F/A*

Dwyane Wade: Draft (#5)

• · Mavericks:

Dirk Nowitzki: Draft (#9)

2009-2010: Lakers vs. Celtics

• · Lakers:

Kobe Bryant: Draft (#13)

Pau Gasol: Trade

• · Celtics: None

2008-2009: Lakers vs. Magic

• · Lakers:

Kobe Bryant: Draft (#13)

Pau Gasol: Trade

• · Magic:

Dwight Howard: Draft (#1)

2007-2008: Celtics vs. Lakers

• · Celtics:

Kevin Garnett: Trade

Paul Pierce: Draft (#10)

• · Lakers:

Kobe Bryant: Draft (#13)

2006-2007: Spurs vs. Cavaliers

• · Spurs:

Tim Duncan: Draft (#1)

• · Cavaliers:

LeBron James: Draft (#1)

2005-2006: Heat vs. Mavericks

• · Heat:

Shaquille O’Neal: Trade

Dwyane Wade: Draft (#5)

• · Mavericks:

Dirk Nowitzki: Draft (#9)

2004-2005: Spurs vs. Pistons

• · Spurs:

Tim Duncan: Draft (#1)

• · Pistons:

Ben Wallace: Trade

2003-2004: Pistons vs. Lakers

• · Pistons:

Ben Wallace: Trade

• · Lakers:

Shaquille O’Neal: F/A

Kobe Bryant: Draft (#13)

2002-2003: Spurs vs. Nets

• · Spurs:

Tim Duncan: Draft (#1)

• · Nets:

Jason Kidd: Trade

2001-2002: Lakers vs. Nets

• · Lakers:

Shaquille O’Neal: F/A

Kobe Bryant: Draft (#13)

• · Nets:

Jason Kidd: Trade

2000-2001: Lakers vs. 76ers

• · Lakers:

Shaquille O’Neal: F/A

Kobe Bryant: Draft (#13)

• · 76ers:

Allen Iverson: Draft (#1)

Dikembe Mutombo: Trade

1999-2000: Lakers vs. Pacers

• · Lakers:

Shaquille O’Neal: F/A

Kobe Bryant: Draft (#13)

• · Pacers: None

1998-1999: Spurs vs. Knicks

• · Spurs:

Tim Duncan: Draft (#1)

• · Knicks: None

1997-1998: Bulls vs. Jazz

• · Bulls:

Michael Jordan: Draft (#3)

Scottie Pippen: Trade

• · Jazz:

Karl Malone: Draft (#13)

1996-1997: Bulls vs. Jazz

• · Bulls:

Michael Jordan: (Draft #3)

Scottie Pippen: Trade

• · Jazz:

Karl Malone: Draft (#13)

John Stockton: Draft (#16)

1995-1996: Bulls vs. SuperSonics

• · Bulls:

Scottie Pippen: Trade

Michael Jordan: Draft (#3)

• · SuperSonics:

Shawn Kemp: Draft (#17)

Gary Payton: Draft (#2)

1994-1995: Rockets vs. Magic

• · Rockets:

Hakeem Olajuwon: Draft (#1)

Clyde Drexler: Trade

• · Magic

Penny Hardaway: Draft (#3)

Shaquille O’Neal: Draft (#1)

1993-1994: Rockets vs. Knicks

• · Rockets:

Hakeem Olajuwon: Draft (#1)

• · Knicks: None

1992-1993: Bulls vs. Suns

• · Bulls:

Michael Jordan: Draft (#3)

Scottie Pippen: Trade

• · Suns:

Charles Barkley: Trade

1991-1992: Bulls vs. Trail Blazers

• · Bulls:

Michael Jordan: Draft (#3)

Scottie Pippen: Trade

• · Trail Blazers:

Clyde Drexler: Draft (#14)

1990-1991: Bulls vs. Lakers

• · Bulls:

Michael Jordan: Draft (#3)

• · Lakers:

Magic Johnson: Draft (#1)

James Worthy: Draft (#1)

1989-1990: Pistons vs. Trail Blazers

• Pistons:

Joe Dumars: Draft (#18)

• · Trail Blazers:

Clyde Drexler: Draft (#14)

1988-1989: Pistons vs. Lakers

• · Pistons: None

• · Lakers:

Magic Johnson: Draft (#1)

*Note: I’m going to go ahead and say, for these purposes, that the Heat got LeBron through free agency. I feel like most people would agree, though I may be wrong.

Analysis/Interesting Observations:

· *Note that of the 5 instances of an All-NBA player acquired through free agency appearing in the Finals, 4 belong to Shaq and 1 to LeBron. Both players as free agents went to teams that already had a perennial All-NBA player on the roster. One went to Los Angeles, one went to Miami. My conclusion based off of this is Houston shouldn’t count on getting a player through free agency that with propel us into the Finals. It just doesn’t happen unless you’re a sexy city with a superstar already in place. I’m not saying we can’t get good players that may contribute greatly to a Finals run (though that probably won’t happen anytime soon), only that we won’t get a superstar that’ll drive our team through free agency.

· *Everyone cites the Pistons of the 2000’s as some starless bunch, but keep in mind that Ben Wallace was the best defensive player in the league for a while and a perennial All-NBAer, and Billups managed to make the teams several years as well (though not in the years they went to the Finals).

· *For those of you who didn’t look at the stats, the 5 teams to make the Finals without an All-NBA player that year were the 2009-2010 Celtics, 1999-2000 Pacers, 1998-1999 Knicks, 1993-1994 Knicks, and 1988-1989 Pistons. The 1988-1989 Pistons were the only ones to win it all.

· *Most teams that got an All-NBA player (in a Finals year) through a trade had an additional All-NBA player on the roster beforehand. Examples of such players include the Pau Gasols, Scottie Pippens, and Clyde Drexlers of the NBA. This is to say that most teams that get a player in a trade that does well in Finals years were contenders (or on the verge) before acquiring that player.

· *The only instances of an All-NBA Finals player acquired in a trade that was the only All-NBA player on the roster in that year are Ben Wallace, Jason Kidd, and Charles Barkley. Note that Ben Wallace was a nobody when he was traded and only blossomed into a star afterwards. Note also that the team that traded for Jason Kidd gave up an All-NBA player to get him. And the Suns had an All-NBA player in Kevin Johnson when Barkley was traded to them, though Johnson was not selected to the All-NBA team the year the Suns went to the Finals.

· *My subjective conclusion is that unless you already have an All-NBA player on your team, counting on getting a superstar in a trade is unreasonable. The stats show that this has been proven true 100% of the time. The case has always been that either you use the superstar to attract a fellow superstar or give up a superstar in the swap. The only exception to the rule is the Charles Barkley trade to the Suns. And Ben Wallace, in that he didn’t become a good player until after he was traded to the Pistons.

Closing Thoughts:

I hope everyone enjoyed this post. It’s a lot to read, but I think the material is very interesting. My conclusions, which I believe are supported by the stats, are that acquiring via free agency or a trade an All-NBA caliber player that will propel you into the Finals is unrealistic unless you already have a superstar in place or give up a superstar in return. In the past 23 years there have been no exceptions to this rule. As such, as Houston currently has no superstar on the roster (Lowry is good, but not worthy of an All-Star selection, let alone a place on an All-NBA team), expecting to acquire a superstar that will make us a contender (defined for these purposes as a team that makes the Finals) is unfounded. The stats say it’s simply not going to happen. The stats also say that very rarely does a team without All-NBA talent make the Finals, making that an unrealistic expectation for our Rockets as is as well. So what does this all mean? Anyone is free to disagree with me, but based off of the above information the only way for a team to go from nothing to the Finals is through the draft. Whether this means we should tank or not is a more difficult question that I’m not going to touch.

I hope you all enjoyed and I look forward to your feedback.

If we can steal this one versus the best team in the league, this could be key in the Playoffs race. The Bulls are playing without last year's MVP, Derrick Rose. Rip Hamilton was questionable but he's in. We're still missing Kyle Lowry and Kevin Martin. Go Rockets !

Continue reading this post »

Ok, so my last fanPost was a pretty simple look at the last 12 years of the NBA draft. And after reading many of the reply's in that post, as well as continuing to read countless daily posts about how the best only bet for the Rockets to get back to the glory days is for us to somehow get a top 5 pick in an upcoming NBA draft, I decided to look at the last 30 years of the draft.

Only this analysis is much more detailed and thorough than the last as I wanted to better understand the truth behind using the draft as a tool to set the "modern franchise" back on its feet again. I did this analysis because something in my mind was telling me over and over again that all the recent blog chatter about the draft being the Savior for a franchise is just plain wrong.

Here are the highlights of the analysis of the last 30 years of the NBA draft so you don’t have to read the following (after the jump) in its entirety.

- Only (6) teams since 1981 have WON the NBA Championship with the same player they drafted in the top 5 spots still on the roster.

- Only (9) other teams since 1981 have made an APPEARANCE in the NBA Finals (without winning) with the same player they drafted in the top 5 spots still on the roster.

- Drafting a "superstar" that takes you to the NBA Finals Appearance = 15 (6+9)/150 (30 years x 5 spots) = 10% chance

- Drafting the franchise "superstar" that wins you that NBA Championship = 6/150 = 4% chance

(someone please correct this if these mathematical calculations are not proper use for statistical purposes)

- The average number of years from drafting a player in the top 5 spots to WINNNING first championship was a little over 7 years.

- The average number of years from drafting a player in the top 5 spots to reaching the finals WITHOUT EVER WINNING the championship was a little over 5 years.

- Only 5 players in NBA history have won a championship while being the only NBA All-Star on their team. Dirk Nowitzki is the latest to do so. I didn’t bother looking up the other four. Do you know who that my be? I regarded this as a telling statistic because this goes back to the argument that even if you draft that franchise "superstar" with a top 5 pick, you still have to put a team of great players around him, before he walks, in order to win it all.

HOF Players (including Probable’s) drafted in the top 5 spots since 1981

22 Total

13 Current HOF Players

9 Probable HOF Players (Gary Payton, Iverson, Duncan, Wade, L. James, D. Howard, Kidd, Garnett, R. Allen)

HOF Players (including Probable’s) drafted between 9 and 28 since 1981

10 Total

6 Current HOF Players

4 Probable HOF Players (Bryant, Dirk, Nash, and Pierce)

(Parker could be in the HOF one day but he might need more time to prove himself without Timmy)

- The L.A. Clippers have had (11) top 5 picks and (26) total top 14 picks in the last 30 years while only making the playoffs a total of (4) times. (0 NBA Finals or WCF appearances)

- The Utah Jazz have only had (3) top 5 picks and only (10) total top 14 picks. During this same 30 years they made it to (2) consecutive NBA Finals appearances and (4) other WCF appearances. In these 30 years the Jazz qualified for the post-season a total of 25 times.

If you want to see all the detailed analysis then take a look after the jump! Oh, and I can't get it to Auto Tag and Link.

Warning! It may take you 20 - 30 minutes to read all of the detailed analysis. This took me about 10 hours over 4 days to put together.

Continue reading this post »

I have taken up a project and need some input from the good people here at TDS. As a premier franchise in the advanced statistics realm i was hoping you could provide me With some help in deciding players ranks. what would you consider the best statistic for evaluating the middle of the pack players. This is mainly going to be used to rank the 61st to 120th players in the league for the purpose of estimating player values. This if for a senior statistics project that I have to do for school.

Poll

Best advanced stat to judge middle of the pack players

7%

Win Share

2 votes

32%

Efficiency

9 votes

32%

PER

9 votes

25%

True Shooting %

7 votes

3%

Other (comment below)

1 votes

28 votes | Poll has closed

Do you think the Rockets will beat the Pacers tonight? Yes or No.

I'm casting my vote for "Yes, I think the Rockets will beat the Pacers" tonight.

I think I'll just go ahead and continue to vote "Yes" on all of these "Will the Rockets beat the -----?" polls for the rest of the regular season. Not that I think the Rockets will actually go undefeated in their remaining games, but if they win more than not, we have a good shot to make the playoffs this year, not to mention I'd finish the season over .500 on my predictions.

I'll let it ride, on the Rockets.

♥ ♥ ♥ GO ROCKETS!!! ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ BEAT THE PACERS!!! ♥ ♥ ♥

― ♥ Becca :)

"You may say I'm a dreamer

But I'm not the only one

I hope some day you'll join us"

-- "Imagine" by John Lennon

Poll

Will the Rockets Beat the Pacers?

72%

Yes

13 votes

27%

No

5 votes

18 votes | Poll has closed

The Rockets are competing with the Grizzlies, the Nuggets and the Jazz for the last 3 spots of the western conference.

Looking at the 4 teams schedule (including the Rockets), I think that the Rockets will grab the 7th or 8th spot.

The Grizzlies have the heaviest schedule with 16 games remaining for the last month but most of them winnable (except OKC x2, @LAL). If they stay healthy, they can easily finish with a 11-5 record and get the 6th seed.

The Nuggets have the most balanced schedule with 2 tough games (@OKC & @LAL) and the key will be the back-to-back with the Rockets and the 2 games with the Magic. I hope the Rockets could beat them twice. They don't have Nene anymore and we are well loaded at front-court. But their back-court can kill the Rox anytime.

The Jazz have currently the worse record (27-26) of those teams with some games to play not so easy: 2x @Suns, @ Mavs, @ Spurs, Spurs and Magic. Plus, 1 game @ Toyota Center! I think they still can grab 8 Ws but it will not be enough.

Left the Rockets. They need 7 wins and can afford to lose both games against the Nuggets to finish at 8th spot. The key stretch will be Kings, Blazers, Jazz and Suns + the 2x Hornets and the Warriors games. Rockets schedule looks like the toughest one with @Bulls, @Lakers, @Mavs and @Heat. But they don't need to win those games.

The bonus is the Pacers game. They win it and they will be well launched toward the Playoff!

Your predictions?

GO ROCKETS!!!

Rockets 98, Grizzlies 89

Hell'uva win Rockets! Hell'uva win! Way to beat the Grizzlies! Another gritty performance by our Rockets.

Marcus Camby, Goran Dragic, and Chase Budinger all played inspired ball and came up huge for the Rockets against the Grizzlies, with Camby being the difference maker in tonight's game.

The Rockets took the win from the Grizzlies, a solid team we could've easily let get the best of us if we didn't handle our business. Memphis is ahead of us in the Western Conference standings and, going into Friday's game were leading the season series 2-1 over the Rockets. So we really needed to win Friday's game to even the season series 2-2.

In our previous Rockets-Grizzlies match ups this season, before the Rockets got Camby at the trade deadline, the Rockets got dominated by Memphis' bigs, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. This match up, Memphis' bigs got dominated by our bigs, Marcus Camby and Samuel Dalambert.

In what turned out to be a brilliant coaching move by Coach McHale, Marcus Camby started the game at center for the Rockets over Dalembert against the Grizzlies. Marcus Camby "The Enforcer" was a revelation tonight, finishing the game with 7 points, 16 rebounds, and 6 blocks. He was the difference maker in the game for us. After his game against the Kings, I called Camby a shot blockin' fool. After his game against the Grizzlies on Friday, I need to amend that to Camby's a tippin' in, enforcin', reboundin', and shot blockin' fool. He played pretty much out of his mind on Friday night.

The Grizzlies made three dirty plays that come to mind, two by Tony Allen, one by Marc Gasol. The first dirty play was on a steal by Allen on Dragic where Allen basically shoved Dragic to the ground, hurting Dragic's already injured left ankle. No foul is called on Allen. About a minute later in the game, Allen sticks out his leg and and blatantly trips Chandler Parsons. A foul is called but not the technical foul and/or break-away foul it deserved. About a minute later, Allen gets another steal and Camby "The Enforcer" gave Allen a good, hard foul as he tried to score; sending him the message: "You know your wrong for that, we know your wrong for that. Now, take your punishment because we ain't gonna put up with that punk shit, boy!"

McHale also played Camby and Dalembert at the same time, with good effect. They played really well together, basically manhandling Randolph and Gasol all game long. With 1:05 and 27.1 seconds left in the game, respectively, Camby made two big time tip ins that sealed the win for the Rockets; his only field goals of the night. I just can't say enough about how well Camby played against the Grizzlies. It was like he almost willed the Rockets to win. I gotta give Camby some ♥ for his amazing performance on Friday. Wow! It was so great to see! After Friday's win against the Grizzlies, Dragic had this to say about Camby, "he's a great person, a great player...and today...he won the game for us." Hell'uva game, Camby! Hell'uva game!

But Camby couldn't have done it by himself. Dragic, Lee, Budinger and the rest of the Rockets all came together for a big team win against Memphis.

Goran Dragic continued to do what he's been doing. Running the Rockets' point like a boss, making those beautiful ballet-like moves out there, and making music with his teammates. It's a beautiful thing! Goran finished with a new season high 25 points, 7 rebounds. Hell'uva game, Dragic! Hell'uva game!

Courtney Lee contributed 17 points, shooting 7-12.

Buddinger, who scored 13 points, was playing with a toughess and a confidence on both ends of the court that I don't think I've ever seen him play with before. He looked like a different player, like a player possessed. He was aggressive, playing defense, grabbing rebounds, hitting threes, driving into the lane. On one of Bud's drives to the basket, Marc Gasol threw a dirty, punk elbow/arm punch to his ribs and gave him a hard hip bump to the body. No foul was called on Gasol. Bud had to go to the bench for a minute to recover, but he showed his toughness by quickly returning to the game and finishing strong for the Rockets. Hell'uva game, Bud! Hell'uva game!

Rockets turned over the ball 16 times in the game, way more than we would've liked, but overall a really solid team win against the Grizzlies. Hell'uva win, Rockets! Hell'uva win!

Note: After showing up late for practice on Thursday, Patterson didn't see his first playing time against the Grizzlies until there was only 1:47 left in the 3rd quarter.

Around 12:30 am after the Grizzlies game, Dragic tweeted to Patrick Patterson, "go to sleep !!! practice at 11.00 am don't be late :)" Hopefully, Dragic will also give Patterson a wake-up call in the morning.

So, what'd you think about the Rockets win against the Grizzlies?!

Rockets next game is on Sunday against the Pacers in Houston.

♥ ♥ ♥ GO ROCKETS!!! ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ BEAT THE PACERS!!! ♥ ♥ ♥

― ♥ Becca :)

I'm postin' a poll question: Will the Rockets beat the Grizzlies on Friday night in Houston? Yes 'er no.

So?! What'd'ya think & why.

I'll cast my vote for "Yes, the Rockets will beat the Grizzlies on Friday night."

Comin' off those two painful losses to the Mavs, I'm hoping the Rockets have the heart to bounce back against the Grizzlies. We need to win this one at home to split the season series with 'em. They are a tough match up for us, especially as beat up as we are, but we're gettin' down to crunch time so hopefully the Rockets can Git'R'Dun!!!

♥ ♥ ♥ GO ROCKETS!!! ♥ ♥ ♥ ♥ BEAT THE GRIZZLIES!!! ♥ ♥ ♥

— ♥ Becca :)

Poll

Will the Rockets beat the Grizzlies on Friday night in Houston?

72%

Yes

24 votes

27%

No

9 votes

33 votes | Poll has closed