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Dream Links: Trade Talk Edition
by Only_A_Lad on Jan 10, 2010 4:41 PM CST
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I didn't see the game last night, and I have no idea whether or not Xiane, Dave, Lee, or Tom plans on writing a recap, so here's Posting and Toasting's take:
- In that first half, David Lee was positively magical. He seized the opportunity to compete against people his size, and connected on jumpers and drives with either hand. In the second half, Lee disappeared. I'm sure the Rockets stepped up their defense, but it seemed a little like the Knicks were looking elsewhere and Dave wasn't necessarily looking to score after catches. Meanwhile, Luis Scola copied Lee's first half with a scoring barrage of his own in the third and fourth quarters. Lee ended up with 26, 12, and 6, but Scola got his 23 and 7 when it counted most. I wish I'd taped this one, because I don't really know where Lee went.
...
- If any team is built to exploit Mike D'Antoni's short rotation, it's the Rockets. D'Antoni played only 7 men (plus a 3-minute charity stint for Marcus Landry), while Rick Adelman got serious, meaningful contributions from 9 players. The Rocket bench was outstanding. You know what to expect from Carl Landry, but Kyle Lowry was getting buckets and rebounds like he absolutely never should, Chase Budinger made some slick offensive plays, and David Andersen overcame a perilously douchey goatee to drop 10 points.
- No, but seriously, Andersen needs to either shave or accept the nickname I just came up with: David "Date Rape" Andersen.
Really? My personal nickname for him is "catfish-lips."
More links after the jump.
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Dream Links: January 8th, 2010 Edition
by Only_A_Lad on Jan 8, 2010 4:49 PM CST
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In case (like me) you don't listen to sports radio shows, Rudy Tomjanovich made an appearance on 1560AM yesterday, and the audio from the interview may be found here and here.
I've written a lot about how preconceived notions and narratives influence the way in which we see the world (because I'm sure nothing drives up a sports' blog's hit counter like liberal-artsy shit). Hardwood Paroxysm's short piece on the Rudy T interview touches on this, as does Tomjanovich, himself.
Rudy states that he thinks Aaron Brooks and Landry are, in fact, "stars," it's just that no one is talking about them as such:
[Landry] also should be considered as an All-Star. He’s a special player. A lot of people don’t know him. They make the playoffs, they upset somebody… he’s going to be a guy that – the NBA knows about him now.
Moore continues:
I always try and see into the future, as we all do, but through the lens of how different things looked five years ago from where we are now. Seeing Wade tear it up his rookie year, we still didn’t know he’d become this. So we wonder where these guys we now see as "great" but not superstars will end up...
You don’t want to run into Aaron Brooks and Carl Landry for 48 minutes.
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Weekend Dream Links: 12/19/2009
by Only_A_Lad on Dec 19, 2009 6:34 PM CST
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A few days ago, Xiane asked if the Rockets were exceeding our expectations to start the season. The answer from all of you was an overwhelming "yes" (as if we could expect any different). As a reminder of how great I am, however, I'd like to note that Houston just about matches up with my prediction of 48 wins. So there. Marvel at my predictive capacity (or, perhaps, my faith in Daryl Morey).
John Hollinger was one of those who predicted the Rockets would be on the fringes of the playoff hunt. But right now, his projections admit a new reality: the computers see the Rockets as a 50-win team, capturing the 5th-seed in the West and playing the Suns (goddammit) in the first round. They have a 90% chance of making the playoffs. Cool.
More interestingly (to me, at least), those projections give some odds on success in the playoffs. The Rockets have the third-best odds at making the NBA Finals, after only the Lakers and Nuggets. As of right now, the Lakers will probably win the first seed, but the strength of the top teams in the Eastern Conference reduce their chances of winning the championship significantly.
This brings up that classic debate over conference strength. At the very top, I think it's clear that the East has a collection of teams that are a little better than the best teams in the West. But the East is more stratified, and it's thus easier to make the playoffs as a bad team. If nothing else, Hollinger's projections demonstrate the odd way playoff structure affects playoff outcomes.
Other neat little tidbits: The Hornets have totally collapsed since May 2008. The Thunder have a decent shot at the playoffs. At least one of Hollinger's simulations saw the Nets failing to win any more games.
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Wednesday Dream Links: T-Mac Edition!
by Only_A_Lad on Dec 16, 2009 12:00 PM CST
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For me, the most grating issue of the nine-month T-Mac Injury Drama were Rockets fans' attempts at medical opinions. As I recall, I accused (in not the nicest way possible) Xiane of trying to be an "internet doctor" back when McGrady was visiting several different doctors in the space of a few weeks.
Honestly, I think that the same thing was going on at an even more egregious level over the past month, as reporters and fans speculated on whether or not the Rockets were keeping a healthy McGrady out of games he could otherwise play. For a variety of reasons, this struck me as even more silly than the "doctor shopping" accusations of March and April.
So it's nice to see Chris Webber share some insights on coming back from microfracture surgery, as well as an experience that almost certainly influenced Adelman's decision to hold Tracy out of games for the past month, and only now play him in very limited minutes.
Why did Adelman wait so long to play McGrady? The fact that Webber may have ruined his career by trying to come back early probably has something to do with it.
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Weekend Dream Links
by Only_A_Lad on Dec 12, 2009 3:48 PM CST
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The Lakers are currently 17-3 and on a 10-game win streak. They also have had the vast majority of their early-season games at home. These things are related.
The Celtics are 18-4 and on a 9-game win streak. They also have had one of the weakest schedules thus far. These things are also related.
The Rockets are 13-9, and were it not for a lucky bounce on a Brandon Roy layup, they would be on a 5-game win streak. They also have had the single toughest schedule in the NBA. Similarly, the OKC Durants are 11-9 after facing the 2nd-toughest schedule. As a result, BBR ranks the Rockets as the 7th team in the NBA (OKC is 10th).
The Rockets face the 17th-ranked Toronto Raptors tomorrow night. After that, they play games against the (very strong) Nuggets and Mavericks, but it's clear that the worst part of the Rockets' schedule is over. When looking at the Rockets' schedule when it came out in the summer, my immediate reaction was that the first two months were going to be very, very difficult. That Houston has not only survived but has ended up four games over .500 is a testament to just how strong this team really is.
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Friday Dream Links: 12/11/2009
by Only_A_Lad on Dec 11, 2009 5:15 PM CST
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It's been a busy few weeks, and I haven't really gotten the chance to either sit down and write or survey the basketball-related websites lately, so (if you were curious) that's why there haven't been any link posts in a while. Can't promise anything for another week or so, either, but today I've got a bit of a lull in activity, so here goes.
Dave posted earlier about the early ASG voting results. As you all know by now, T-Mac is currently second in the West's guards. I mentioned in the comments section that the typical reactions to Chinese voters would be voiced, and indeed they have been over the past two days. Over at Empty the Bench, Zachary Blott gives what I think is a pretty standard screed against foreign voters (emphasis mine):
So while T-Mac’s ego and Houston doing-fine-without-him are at a stalemate, China may be able to get him back into an NBA-sanctioned event. That’s because David Stern has been kissing China’s ass ever since Yao Ming was the #1 pick in 2002 so that the league can make a bunch of moolah off their 1.3 billion citizens.
As part of that smooch, China gets to vote for starters in the All-Star Game. From a logical standpoint, this makes no sense, and I think most fans who understand that the Eastern and Western Conferences are named after coasts in America where the game is played (plus Toronto, which is just across the border) agree. So apparently the Chinese vote as a block, and that block’s name is Yao Ming’s Houston Rockets.
Now, formal logic was never really my strength in philosophy, but I see very little "logically" wrong with allowing Chinese fans to vote. Maybe Mr. Blott refers to a conflict between a National Basketball Association allowing non-US nationals to vote for All-Stars, but that seems pretty weak, given the presence of a Canadian team and the importance of foreign fans to the league.
As for whether or not American and Canadian fans are any more astute than their Chinese counterparts, I think their voting record speaks for itself (AI started for the East last year - 'nuff said - and for the West the year before that). Fans vote for their favorite team's players. That's just how it works. This is, obviously, what the Chinese Rockets fans are doing. But the "difference" is that - boo hoo - there are a lot of Chinese fans.
Seriously, people, if this really, truly bothers you - if you are currently furiously typing away a response about how it just isn't fair that McGrady will probably end up with more votes than Brandon Roy or Tony Parker or whoever, here is my suggestion: grow up. It's the freaking All Star Game. Totally meaningless. Doesn't matter. Most fans I know don't watch it (and I've only seen maybe three in my whole life; the dunk contest is another matter). All-NBA teams are what matter for personal glory, not ASG appearances. It's just a bit of fun in the middle of the season - an opportunity to watch our favorite players go at it in the NBA equivalent of a YMCA pickup game. And if there are enough Chinese fans that want to see Tracy McGrady suit up for the Western Conference that he takes the West's 2nd Guard spot, then so be it.
Besides, he's not going to win, so why get all pissy about it now? A month from now, Chris Paul or Steve Nash will pull away, and we can all celebrate the fact that we'll finally have a real point guard starting for the first time since 2006.
More links after the jump.
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Tuesday Dream Links
by Only_A_Lad on Dec 1, 2009 10:37 AM CST
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Shane Battier, I think, is one of the weirdest players in the league. That's not a shocking statement or anything - it is, after all, why Michael Lewis wrote that article about him - but I think we tend to assume around here that everyone accepts Shane's greatness, on some level. That clearly isn't the case, sadly. And that shouldn't be surprising, because (as I said previously) he's a weird player. So I'd like to kick off this week with a focus on the No-Stats All Star and perhaps shed some light on his disguised value.
The two most frequent criticisms I hear about Battier's game are:
- He contributes nothing on offense
- He has lost his defensive touch, or his defensive value was always overstated.
The first criticism stems from a misunderstanding of the way players can contribute to the offense. Volume shooters (Kobe, McGrady, Arenas, Steve Francis, etc.) help their teams (even if, sometimes, they aren't particularly efficient) by using possessions and "creating" (as vague a term as that is, it describes something real, I think). Efficient shooters (Steve Kerr, Novak, Ariza prior to this season) help their teams by not taking bad shot and converting the opportunities they're given at a very high rate. Battier obviously falls into this second category, scoring primarily as a spot-up shooter around the arc.
To say that Battier doesn't have an offensive game is foolish. He's efficient, even if he doesn't take many shots, and that matters. Not everyone can use 25% of the team's possessions, and so having somebody who can simply convert open field goals is very valuable.
The second criticism is a little more difficult to address. Shane's reputation is based almost entirely around his defense, and he has acquired (rightly or wrongly) a reputation as a "shut-down defender."
Matt Moore (of Hardwood Paroxysm fame) interviewed Chris Ballard (author of "The Art of a Beautiful Game") a few days ago. Ballard's book (which Tom reviewed a few weeks ago) includes a chapter on Battier. Roughly the last half of Moore's interview focuses on Battier, statistics, and (most interestingly) the Rockets' Front Office.
Ballard describes the defensive strategy employed by the Rockets against Brandon Roy and the Blazers in the playoffs last year. Roy, unlike Kobe, does not really favor a particularly side of the basket when scoring, driving to either side with equal frequency and converting field goals at roughly the same rate. However, Roy was better able to "create" to his left ("create" here meaning "creating space"), but was more likely to pass out to a teammate when driving to his right.
The Rockets, somewhat counter-intuitively, decided to force Roy to his left. He'd be able to score at a better rate and would make some nice highlight-reel plays, but he wouldn't be as able to get his teammates involved.
Shane can be a shut-down defender. We've seen him wreck Kobe's game at times, slow Melo down, and force LeBron James into the worst game of his career. But Ballard shows us that the way the Rockets think about good defense and the way they use Battier is a lot more complex than simply shutting down the other team's main scorer.
Consider this an endorsement for adjusted plus-minus, which we know the Rockets look at. APM is subject to a lot of noise, and it isn't useful on any level smaller than an entire season, but it should (theoretically) capture the obscured parts of team defense. While boxscore-based metrics tend to show that Battier's a good wing player, I think APM is probably the best way to evaluate a player like Shane. APM metrics generally show Battier is a pretty good player, though it's clear that the Rockets think he's more than that. I'm inclined to trust the guys with all the proprietary stats.
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Monday Dream Links: I'm Back!
by Only_A_Lad on Nov 23, 2009 1:04 PM CST
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So I've spent the last few days drinking and writing term papers, so you may have noticed a distinct lack of my posts around here. Still, the internet don't stop just because I'm not writing, so there's plenty to talk about.
You might remember that during their finals appearance this summer, much was said of the Orlando Magic's distinct style of play: they took a lot of threes. Their similarity to the Championship-Era Rockets was noted around here (Dwight's obviously no Dream offensively, but his dominance on the boards and as a shot-blocker is close): a fantastic inside presence surrounded by three-point shooters and not much else
Hoopdata is a great site and resource, providing all kinds of data on shot types. Here is their look at the team data for 2009-2010, and we see a virtual repeat of 2009's story for the Magic. Despite the changes to the Magic during the offseason, they still take the most threes in the league and, importantly, exceedingly few midrange shots.
While the success of the Magic's strategy is frequently talked about, the Rockets are another team that adopts this model (they're 2nd in the league in long-twos-to-3PA ratio), and the reason should be obvious: the three-point shot is the most efficient field goal attempt in the game, followed by shots near the rim. For a team run by the NBA's leading team of basketball nerds and led on the court by such all-around smart guys as Shane Battier and Rick Adelman, the appeal of the inside-outside game is great.
Instead, we hear about how "scrappy" the Rockets are, and how they get by on so much less than everybody else. What I challenge all of you - fans and any writers reading this - to do is to stop going to this easy analysis.
I think what the data indicates (and what tells a far more interesting story), is that the Rockets have constructed a team based around hitting the most efficient shots they can. Ariza, Brooks, and Budinger all make livings behind the arc and driving into the lane. Battier is an excellent spot-up shooter. Landry, Scola, Lowry, and Hayes score around the rim. The team is built around this efficient model, and midrange shots, while not disused (indeed, the Rockets - particularly Scola, Andersen, Ariza, and Brooks - are more than happy to shoot between the paint and the arc) are obviously not the focus of the offense. Morey built the team for this purpose, and Adelman's strategies take advantage of this focus.
It's not really that the Rockets are scrappy or that they play hard, it's that they do all of the things that a team needs to do in order to win games. Yes, playing hard is a big part, but the Nets or T-Wolves could play harder than anyone and still lose most of the time. The Rockets rebound, get steals, defend on the ball, and (most importantly) don't fuck around with bad shot attempts, and that's why they're winning.
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