The other day, Xiane suggested that the Rockets largely look for "high-IQ" players. And then I got to thinking about basketball intelligence when I remembered that Jeremy Lin was on the Knicks' roster. I don't think Lin has an exceptional "Basketball IQ" or anything, but he's obviously a pretty clever guy, and that probably translates to some level of intelligence on the court, I guess. But it really made me think about who on the Rockets has the greatest basketball sense on the court.

Of course, I could just go with my gut, right? I could say it's Lowry or Parsons or Scola or someone because they just seem like the type. But, instead, I'm going to take a page from Bill James and try to come up with a system to describe who, exactly, is "smart." It might not be quite scientific, but it's better than nothing.

I think the prototypical "smart" basketball player, at least for the Rockets, is Shane Battier. We all remember (I'm sure) Michael Lewis's article on the "No Stats All Star," in which Battier's game as a guy who does all the little things necessary on the court was lovingly detailed. But Dave Berri (the guy behind Wages of Wins) took issue with one of the critical points of Lewis's piece: Battier's value was, contrary to what Lewis (and the Rockets) contended, expressed very well through the box-score. Why? Because, while most fans look to the points column near-exclusively when evaluating players, the box score has a lot more than that in it: it records field goals and attempts, steals, turnovers, rebounds, etc. And, looking at those statistics, we can see Battier's value. He shoots efficiently (or at least he did up until this year), he doesn't turn the ball over, he gets steals, he doesn't commit many fouls.

There's a distinct value in not doing something bad -- not missing shots, not turning the ball over, not committing fouls. We tend to look at those players who do a lot of something good (scoring, for instance), but our attention doesn't always turn to those who simply don't do things wrong. Battier was one of those players who rarely did anything wrong on the court.

So much of Battier's value lay in his ability to simply not give the ball to the other team. To me, that's what "smart" basketball players accomplish, and fortunately for us it's something pretty easily quantifiable through the box score.

So I'm going to model OALABII (the Only_A_Lad Adjusted Basketball Intelligence Index, pronounced "wallaby") on Battier's contributions to the game, or rather his lack of negative contributions. We'll thus be looking at the five statistics that really encompassed how not-bad Battier was (and how good he was at not giving the other team another possession): minutes played, field goals, field goals attempted, turnovers, and personal fouls (later we'll incorporate steals, but at first it will be just these).

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January 25th is the deadline for 2008 draftees to sign extensions with their current clubs. If they don't, and if their teams extend a qualifying offer, they will become restricted free agents this summer. January 25th is also, according to at least some people, the deadline day for option decisions. I'm not totally sure on that, especially since the option deadline was extending "indefinitely" back during the lockout and I have yet to see an update on it (meaning that the deadline might be June 30th with the rest of the team option decisions), but now is as good a time as any to look at our favorite Rockets sub-group: the 2009 Draft "Busts" -- Terrence Williams, Jordan Hill, Hasheem Thabeet, and Jonny Flynn.

If, for some reason, you don't remember how or why these guys got onto the Rockets, here's a quick recap. Jordan Hill came over in his rookie season (2010) as part of the three-way McGrady-Martin swap. For the remainder of the 2010 season, he played pretty well, filling in for Carl Landry (who left for Sacramento as part of the deal) and showing enough skill on offense and the glass to make most people think that the "bust" label attached to him in his first few months in New York were a tad premature. Since then, he has usually been the backup forward/center, getting mostly center minutes once rookie Patrick Patterson broke into the rotation last year. He isn't the player that Donnie Walsh might have wanted him to be, but he puts forth valuable contributions, even if there are some glaring flaws (his awful jump-shot and inefficient offense, for instance).

Terrence Williams was part of the Trevor Ariza erasure. The Rockets recognized that they probably made a mistake when they gave Ariza the full midlevel exception (a mistake that was perhaps compounded by Yao's injury early in the 2011 season). It was a fair mistake to make, though -- Ariza was 24, coming off a great season and playoff run, and seemed like he could take on a heightened role. But instead of hanging onto Ariza and hoping he would increase his level of play, the Rockets dealt him to the Hornets in a weird four-way trade that brought Courtney Lee and Williams to Houston and sent a protected draft pick to New Jersey. Daryl Morey likely saw the risk as a good one -- if the Rockets make the playoffs this year, they will almost certainly still have New York's draft pick, so whatever. Williams hasn't exactly impressed so far, though, failing to break into the rotation for any extended length of time. He has definite skills as playmaking and tough-rebounding shooting guard, but his poor shooting and inability to put his athleticism to use has meant that Chase Budinger, Courtney Lee, and even Chandler Parsons have beat him out for one of the backup wing spots.

Hasheem Thabeet came over in the Battier deal last year. The truth is that he was (and probably is) more of a warm body and contract than a real player (he is also an injured-player carrier). The 2013 Memphis draft pick in the deal is probably more likely to yield a rotation player than Hasheem's development will -- it was used in the Motiejunas trade, by all accounts a pretty good pickup. Hasheem has played a grand total of 15 minutes for Houston since the trade.

Jonny Flynn is here because the Rockets needed the numbers to work for the Brad Miller salary dump/Donatas Motiejunas trade. The Rockets moved up in the draft, got rid of Brad Miller's contract (thanks, Rick), and also got a chance to give Jonny Flynn some time (David Kahn sucks, y'all). They haven't really made much of that opportunity, and it's tough to argue with that decision. He hasn't really been lighting it up.

The point is, none of these players were ever much more than flyers and fillers to the Rockets. So while what they paid for these guys should have no impact on whether or not the Rockets should pick up their options for next year (basic microeconomics, y'all), the Rockets didn't really pay anything for them, anyways. They were the extra ketchup you get in your bag at Whataburger: a pleasant surprise, but not the focus.

But will any of them be here next year? More interestingly, what (or who) would these guys have to play like in order to warrant their options? The answer is after the jump.

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For the past two years, writers and commenters on this blog have tried to trade Houston's steady starting forward Luis Scola upwards of 200 times. And we've done so despite steadfastly maintaining our innocence in the matter.

We have never wanted to trade Luis just to get rid of him. We like Luis and we always have. Problem is, as he entered his prime and as his value peaked, everyone decided that if someone had to go in order to beef up the youth movement, why not cut losses with our aging friend from Argentina? It was for the cause, you see.

Ironically, after years of silly hypotheticals, Daryl Morey actually traded Scola to New Orleans before David Stern sent him back. It's one thing to gleefully consider random possibilities, but when they actually take form (much less, dissolve hours later), it all makes for an eye-opening experience.

This season, however, our eyes have opened to a deflated Luis Scola. Experts had pegged this to be the start of Scola's decline, but we didn't believe them. Scola's clever, athleticism-be-damned game is suited for an old man and we figured the trend would continue.

So far, it hasn't. The experts, by most accounts, were right.

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Nothing is terribly wrong with Goran Dragic, actually. He's putting up decent numbers this season and is actually among the more efficient Rockets on the current roster. He also put Russell Westbrook on his backside.

That said, there's a drop-off from last year's Goran, the feisty lightening rod that we used to know. Something about him is different. To borrow from Jason Friedman, we've seen far too much of his depressing, AutoCorrect-inspired alter ego, Groan Tragic.

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To gloat just a little bit, I wrote this about Chandler Parsons right after the Houston Rockets selected the former Florida Gator with the 38th pick in this year's NBA draft:

Houston took Parsons, a 6-foot-10, polished small forward out of Florida. Assuming the Rockets make a few moves and make room for Parsons on the roster, I'm excited. He's a real good player, one that I think has the potential to be a starter down the road, if not a solid bench staple in the league for years to come. He does a little bit of everything well, from shooting to passing to running the floor. His athleticism is a little suspect, but at 38, he's great value for Houston.

Admittedly, when I pegged Parsons as a starter "down the road," I didn't suspect the road would end quite so soon.

But alas, here we are. Chandler Parsons is the Rockets starting small forward less than a month into the season. You're not dreaming, this isn't a test. A second round pick is seeing thirty-minute nights and for good reason. Nobody got injured and needed replacing. To be sure, Parsons played his way into his new role and took full advantage of every opportunity.

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After a few bad losses, it's natural to look around and try to assign some blame. The Rockets are 2-4 on an early schedule that is kinda brutal, but that's not terribly surprising. Daryl Morey himself said they were looking at a number like 4-6 or even 3-7 as decent enough records in the first ten games of the season. The Rockets are still in this thing, and suggesting that they aren't able to recover from a two-game losing streak in January is at least a little silly. So I'm not really looking to blame someone right now. The Rockets have played tough teams, and they beat two of them handily, lost three in no-contest fashion, and lost another more closely. It could be a lot worse.

But there are some significant problems with this Rockets team that opposing teams have exposed in the first six games.The biggest problem (bizarrely, for the Rockets) is the offense [edit: okay, maybe it's the defense]. There are other problems with the Rockets, definitely: Scola's rebounding numbers are way down, Lowry's is really awesome but his turnover numbers are dangerously high, and Jordan Hill seems to be our best non-Scola big man right now. But the single biggest difference between the 2011 Rockets (winning record!) and the 2012 Rockets (we'll see!) is the offense.

The Rockets' offense has declined a lot since last year. Last year they scored a little over 111 points per 100 possessions, good for 4th in the league. This year they're scoring 104.1 per 100, good for only 13th. The offense is slower, (there's a difference of about two possessions per game) but not enormously so -- the main difference is that many other teams (the Blazers, for instance) have gotten much, much faster, and so the Rockets have slipped from 8th in pace to 14th. My early assumption was that at least some of the slippage in offensive efficiency had to do with the slower pace, but the Rockets haven't slowed down enough to really account for that.

The main problem on offense is a much greater propensity for jump shots. Going off of the possession statistics provided by 82games.com, the Rockets' offense has gone from shooting jump shots 67% of the time in 2011 to 74% this season. Most of the difference comes from shots in close to the basket (layups and post shots), which have declined from being used in 29% of possessions to just 22%. And, yet despite the Rockets' offense getting away from the basket, the Rockets' effective field goal percentage (FG% adjusted for threes counting more than twos) has actually improved -- 51.4% compared to last season's 50.3%.

So what's up with the Rockets? Why does the offense suck so bad (you know, comparatively)?

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(UPDATE: See the bottom of the post.)

I don't think the Rockets ever meant to lose Chuck Hayes.

Of course, every bit of Houston's plan for the next five years revolved around the now-defunct Trade That Shall Not Be Named. If reports are true, Hayes was certainly a part of that plan. The most glorious supplement of the trade was cap space, enough to sign both Nene and the Chuckwagon.

Let's not forget how important Hayes was to this team in all facets of the game. On defense, sure, Hayes was Houston's premier post-stopper. He created turnovers and did plenty to irritate opposing post players without fouling to the moon. But we know this quite well. "Ol' Chuck On The Block" is Hayes' eternal image.

What we often overlooked about Hayes was his effect on the offense. The Rockets ran their entire offense through Chuck Hayes, believe it or not. Kyle Lowry would take the ball across half court and Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, Chase Budinger or Lowry would often finish the possession, but in between, the ball went through Hayes. He provided the relaxing cushioning that allowed the rest of the offense to function. Hayes often caught the ball at the top of the key, thus spreading the defense and setting up backdoor cuts to the short corner or handoffs and pick-and-roll plays from the top, leaving room to drive in either direction towards the basket. He became a reliable pause button, one you could trust with the ball in order to let others find their favored spots on the floor.

Would McHale have used Hayes in a similar fashion? This year, perhaps. Judging by the first preseason game, the Rockets offense is going to look awfully similar to that of years past (minus Hayes, of course). There was plenty of ball movement, plenty of cutting and an emphasis on getting out on the break. Whatever the reason -- be it McHale's potentially similar philosophy or the little time spent in camp to usher in new sets -- the offense looked relatively unchanged.

I'm wondering how Hayes' loss is going to affect Kevin Martin, because to me, having the big man up top to pass the ball left space for Martin to drive to the rim. It also gave him more catch-and-shoot options and lessened his dribbles. Excuses are in season given the lockout, but there's no questioning how uncomfortable Martin looked during that first preseason game.

Now, we apparently turn to Jordan Hill, a player of a completely different mold. Hill has reportedly played well during camp and looked every bit the part against San Antonio. He's going to run a lot of pick and roll with Kyle Lowry, which bodes well for Houston as it is a strength for each. But Hill doesn't possess Hayes' skills in the passing department (nor can he stay on the floor given his penchant for fouling) and seems keen on living on the block opposite Luis Scola. It's going to be a major adjustment for an offense that worked to near-perfection running through the Chuckwagon a year ago.

Update: Chuck failed his physical with the Kings, who subsequently had no choice but to void his contract. This is likely the result of a reported heart abnormality that doctors recently discovered. All the best to Hayes and his family.

Take a peek at the Rockets' roster and you'll see one peppered with players the Rockets have taken flyers on, most notably four lottery draftees from the 2009 draft class. Over the past year and a half, the Rockets have acquired Jordan Hill, Terrence Williams, Hasheem Thabeet, and Jonny Flynn with the hope that at least one or two of them will realize their potential and contribute in big ways to the squad going forward.

So, who's going to step up and be the guy who shirks the "bust" label on the Rockets? Of all those guys, it has to be the man who's shown the biggest flashes these past two years, Jordan Hill.

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