Player Analysis
Budinger finds niche, playing time while Taylor forced to wait
by Tom Martin on Nov 12, 2009 3:15 PM CST
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Rick Adelman has always run a skin-tight eight to nine man rotation. Meaning that if you aren't one of those eight or nine players, you'll be seeing nothing but garbage and scrap time. Back in September, I had Jermaine Taylor cracking that rotation ahead of fellow rookie Chase Budinger.
Oh, how the tables have turned.
Not only has Budinger cracked the rotation, but he has become a sharpshooting assassin and an integral part of the offense in just his first seven professional games. Remember, this is the same kid that 32 teams passed over once, and 11 passed over twice. Think anyone might be regretting that decision?
Meanwhile, Taylor, who appeared to have all the tools necessary to find playing time immediately, has been riding the pine. Nothing about Taylor has changed from day one. He's completely healthy. He hasn't been sent to the doghouse. As far as I'm aware, Taylor really hasn't done anything wrong.
However, the circumstances surrounding the Rockets have changed. Once a team thought to be searching for offense, Houston has had no trouble in putting the ball in the basket. While this is a good thing for the Rockets, it doesn't help Taylor's cause for playing time.
Jermaine is of the Tracy McGrady mold. He's a pure scorer, someone who can fend for himself easily, but perhaps too often and too exclusively. Conventional wisdom says that Houston needs a guard who can isolate and carry a team. But there's two problems with this statement pertaining to Taylor:
1. He's no Tracy McGrady. Of the same mold, yes. But of the same caliber? Not even close.
2. If the first seven games are any indicator, the Rockets don't need a pure scorer to isolate and find offense for himself.
Thus far, the "system" offense has worked, that being the brand of offense that basically says, "If you're open, take a good shot. If not, move the ball until you find someone who is. And for God's sake, try not to do too much, because that will defeat the entire purpose."
Consider the Rockets as a puzzle. Who fits better, according to the above statement? Exactly. Chase Budinger.
For the purpose of checking up on predictions, as opposed to gloating, here's what I wrote about Budinger before the season began:
What to expect in 2009-10: Plenty of jump shots. Chase is a perfect "system" player. He's big, athletic, and can shoot the ball well. If you send him through screens and get him open, he'll knock down the jumper. But Bud Light isn't quite as good on the isolation, as he has a tendency to be a bit soft on the drive. Luckily, Budinger won't be asked to do such things. He'll be fighting to see any minutes, but he picked the right year to be a Rocket - any scoring will be welcome. If he can find a niche on the team, he'll play.
It was a pretty bland statement, I suppose, but it's ringing true isn't it? Budinger has found his niche, as a shooter and as a source of offense on back-cuts and on the break. He isn't being asked to dominate the ball. It's been a perfect fit, as he is averaging 10 points per game and is shooting 42 percent from deep. It hurts to say this, but he's making my boy Steve Novak look like s--t.
Don't forget to give some credit to Adelman for Budinger's immediate successes. He's the one who told Chase something along the lines of, "If you have any room at all, shoot. If you don't shoot, you're going to be benched." Nothing fuels a shooter more than a green light with a penalty if it's not taken advantage of.
For now, it is Bud Light who has been the rookie standout. Taylor will continue to wait, especially with McGrady's impending return. Perhaps at some point, he too will find a unique purpose on the roster. In Houston, there's always an injury waiting to happen.
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Chuck Hayes is on notice - for the right reasons this time
by Tom Martin on Nov 6, 2009 1:17 PM CST
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It's been quite a whirlwind for Chuck Hayes, regardless of whether or not anyone has noticed.
This summer, I got the chance to interview Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle. Among other things, he had this to say about our probable roster:
Well, either they're going to make the roster, or not at all. Once you cut a guy, you lose your rights to him. It's possible that Chuck Hayes is one of those guys to cut and then bring back.
Still think the ole Chuckwagon is cuttable? It would be Morey's last hurrah.
Now, coming off of a 14/14 game against Andrew Bynum and the Los Angeles Lakers, Hayes is starting to create quite a buzz from the league and from the media. Earlier today, TrueHoop's Henry Abbott posted an article written by Rockets.com's Jason Friedman:
Jason Friedman of Rockets.com is kicking off a campaign to get Chuck Hayes on the NBA's All-Defense team. I'll second that. Friedman writes: "I may not be top in the league in blocks but if I'm guarding, say, LaMarcus Aldridge and I make him shoot a bad percentage, then I hope they pay attention to that," says Hayes. "I just wish there was a stat for keeping your man to the lowest field goal percentage."
Not only did Abbott and Friedman have praise for Hayes, but others across the 'Net did as well.
Chuck Hayes is a 6-6 Kevin Garnett. His footwork belongs on Mt. Rushmore. His hands belong in the Smithsonian. He had two steals tonight, and caused as many jump balls. He's a center that's in the top five in steals, per game, in barely half a game. His defense is unbelievable. And now (7-9 shooting, no hesitation around the hoop) you have to pay attention to him when someone drives and dishes.
Hayes has been one of the keys to Houston's surprising start with his ability to defend bigger players at the center position. He's listed at 6-6 and even that estimate seems optimistic, but he's so good at getting leverage and pushing opposing big men away from the rim that he's a very effective interior defender regardless. And unlike most bigs who defend the post, he also can step out to the 3-point line and pick up smaller players.
We knew this already about Hayes, but what's made him a viable performer this season is that he's become more willing to shoot and finish around the basket. Last season he seemed terrified to shoot at times and finished the year averaging a meager 4.2 points per 40 minutes, along with the worst true shooting percentage in basketball at a horrifying 37.5.
He'll never be George Gervin, but this year he's accepted all the layups that have come his way, and those have been frequent given how often opponents gamble off him to double other Houston players. Hayes scored 14 points last night and is averaging 8.8 on the season; he's done it efficiently, shooting 64.7 percent from the floor.
Tom Lorenzo of FanHouse (yes, Chuck is getting fantasy basketball attention):
Chuck Hayes is eligible all over the place -- small forward, power forward, and center. That's a good thing. That means you can move him around as needed. Right now Hayes is averaging 2.4 steals per game and is one of just two center-eligible players averaging more than 1.6 steals per game -- Anderson Varejao being the other at 1.8 per. In his last two Hayes is averaging 13 points, 11.5 rebounds and shooting above 75-percent from the field -- against the Jazz and the Lakers. His defense has never been in question, so add him as a filler in the middle and you'll benefit nicely from his active hands.
Those of us who consider ourselves to be Rockets fans have been quite aware of Hayes' defensive ability ever since he joined the squad. Chuck's problems had always resonated on the offensive end, where he was nothing more than dead air last season. However, the Rockets are quickly noticing his ability to run a successful pick and roll and finish in the lane. You'll see few "big" men out there with footwork as good as Chuck's. And perhaps Luis Scola taught him a thing or two about how to finish a layup automatically.
The Chuckwagon's offensive renaissance has prompted those who weren't initially looking to finally turn their heads. He doesn't necessarily need added motivation, but an increased respect from the public can't do much but raise his spirits. He deserves every last bit of it.
Oh, and it would be nice if Chuck could keep this up without getting fouled. He's only taken one free throw this season (which he missed, of course), and if he keeps converting in the paint, "hack-a-Chuck" could suddenly make an appearance. Please, dear referees, hold your whistles.
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Let's play the "what if?" game - today's topic: Tracy McGrady
by grungedave on Oct 24, 2009 10:58 AM CDT
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I know, I know... it's really dangerous to open up an actual debate on the hypothetical scenarios of Tracy McGrady. I mean, what if he really does return to the Rockets' roster this year and is actually allowed to participate in team activities? What if... what if... what if...? (I think someone once had some good advice for me on asking about things like this):
Nonetheless, with the regular season starting next week, I will brave the inevitable minefield and pose the question: What can we reallyexpect from Tracy McGrady this year?
My take? Tracy McGrady is on the downside of his career. This is not in dispute. He is also coming back from a (supposedly "minor") microfracture surgery on his knee. The list of players who have successfully recovered from any microfracture procedure is small. And even those players' "success" is debatable since none ever returned to their previous level of athletic ability.
As for McGrady, we can't ignore the previous season when he attempted to return from shoulder surgery and a "minor" (at the time) arthroscopic knee surgery. The results? Quite simply the most unproductive year since his rookie year - and since he only sat on the bench back in 1997, the 2008/09 season was certainly his most detrimental to his fellow teammates. Let's do the numbers:
38% FG shooting
37% 3-pt shooting
(note: nearly 1 in 4 of his FG attempts was from beyond the arc)
15.6 ppg
4.4 rebounds
5.0 assists
80% FT
... only his assist and FT marks were above his career averages.
The most damning stat of all? The Rockets escaped the first round of the playoffs. Without him.
So, it's safe to say you will never see this again:
But what about the 2009/10 season? It's all that matters right now and living in the past doesn't do any good (especially for our protagonist here).
Will McGrady average 20+ points a game? (No.)
Will McGrady stop shooting unnecessary 3-pointers? (No.)
Will McGrady participate on a team that makes it to round 2? (Ummm, maybe. I hope so this year.)
But what do you think?
update! Thank you to TrueHoop for the Monday afternoon link. Though I never once said in this post that Tracy McGrady would never be an all-star again. I don't think he will, but that is not the point of the article. I'm more concerned with how he fits into the current Rockets rotation (if he indeed does return).
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Ariza on Houston: "I've never felt so comfortable in my life"
by Tom Martin on Sep 14, 2009 1:49 PM CDT
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Sam Alipour of ESPN.com is quickly becoming a Dream Shake regular, as he has yet again written something on the Houston Rockets. Small forward Trevor Ariza is is the subject of Alipour's latest piece, and while the majority of the Insider only article follows Ariza on his search for a Houston home, it was nice to see this paragraph on why the former Laker chose to sign with the Rockets:
He does say his decision to sign with the Rockets was partly hoops based. "This was the best opportunity to show my abilities and expand my game." In the end, though, the main reason Ariza is spending an August weekend house hunting in Texas can be explained by a simple human need. "My whole career, all I've wanted is to feel wanted, and I have that now," he says. "It sounds crazy, but the Rockets swept me off my feet. I'm telling you, I've never felt so comfortable in my life.
It remains to be seen how smoothly Ariza will adjust to the Rockets on the court. As for off the court, it looks like he is off to a good start.
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Yao to undergo surgery next week
by UofTOrange on Jul 17, 2009 12:38 PM CDT
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From the chronicle:
After several weeks spent considering his options, Yao chose a surgery that will include a bone graft and a realignment of the bones in his left foot to alleviate some of the stress in that area that could have led to the hairline fractures in the tarsal navicular bone the past two seasons.
So, we knew this was coming, but it's no fun to actually see it in print. Yao will be out for the entire year and I would even venture to guess, for safeties sake, some of the next. Personally I'd like to see them just yank those bones out and put in some titanium or something equally or more awesome. Make him like the terminator. Who knows, maybe that is the plan and we won't know because they don't want the league to know. Plus, you wouldn't want the machines to get the message just yet.
So, DreamShakers, are you happy with the choice made? Did you want them to use the more expiremental surgery, or does this make sense to you?
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Scattered scouting reports and video on new Houston Rocket David Andersen
by Tom Martin on Jul 14, 2009 10:41 PM CDT
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Instant David Andersen analysis from Gersson Rosas, who talked to Adam Wexler of Sports Radio 610:
"Longtime target....one of most accomplished Aussies...impressive background...won championships in Spain and Italy...wins everywhere...special talent...skilled 7 footer, can shoot, moves well, good face up game, good fit for Adelman's offense...could have been a good compliment to Yao, but now can feature him...offenisvely, no question it will be a strong translation...defensively: size, which helps, and can play in our scheme...hasn't been involved in the NBA for a long time because he was well-paid in Europe and really had no reason to leave...leaving money on the table to play in the NBA...time was right for him contractually and career-wise...mirrors Pau Gasol's versatily on the high post, in terms of shooting and dribbling...skilled passer on the high post...can play pick-and-pop and space the floor as a 7 footer...a little bit like Bargnani, but not quite as athletic...similar in the type of game and style...not great defensively, but Chuck's presence will help that...smart player...good team defender...physicality is an issue...studied him for past 3-4 years...big credit to Les Alexander for providing resources for the upcoming season..."
Obviously, it seems like the Rockets have been high on Andersen for some time now. Daryl Morey and Rick Adelman have wanted to acquire an athletic big man to pair with Yao - now they have an athletic big man to pair with Chuck Hayes, which isn't too shabby of a combination either. Andersen's presence on offense will work nicley with Hayes' on defense.
Morey was recently on one of the Summer League broadcasts, and he talked about finding "the right players" for Coach Adelman's system. Not the best players, but the right players (sounds like Herb Brooks and the 1980 US Hockey team). Though we've criticized Adelman in the past, there's no question that he is an offensive genius, and that Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming weren't exactly the best fits for his scheme. Though it's obvious that the Rockets would love to feature a healthy McGrady and a healthy Yao, Adelman should be much more comfortable with the player-types that will be starting this season, as Andersen is expected to start at center.
So far, it sounds like another great move from Morey. You're not going to find skilled big men like Andersen with second round picks, thus allowing us to make the switch. The best part about all of this is that we probably won't be paying him much at all. A typical cost-efficient move from the Rockets.
Video highlights and extended scouting reports on David Andersen after the jump.
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Rockets Fans: What would you trade Shane Battier to the Portland Trailblazers for?
by UofTOrange on Jul 3, 2009 12:00 AM CDT
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I have a full analysis of what I want the Rockets to do on deck for early next week (hopefully Monday). However, I want a little help. Dave from Blazer's Edge and I have been tossing around an idea. What would you want from the Trail Blazers for Shane Battier. Now, believe me this is all a hypothetical, but, what if the Rockets were going into rebuilding mode? You have to sell high on Battier, right? And he fits into Portland epically well.
Rudy Fernandez and Travis Outlaw for Shane Battier.
Let me get this out of the way. I know 95% of you would never "want to trade" Battier. I'm in that boat too. That said, I know that, so let's try and be productive. If you had to, what would you accept? And let's keep it within reason, Brandon Roy nor LaMarcus Aldridge is coming over.
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A rushed case for the Houston Rockets to sign Marcin Gortat
by Tom Martin on Jul 1, 2009 9:00 PM CDT
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I'm writing this in a hurried fashion before I run off to an important dinner, but I think it will suffice.
Of all the free agent centers out there, Marcin Gortat makes the most sense for Daryl Morey and the Houston Rockets. It looks like Morey sees it that way as well. According to Chris Duncan of Yahoo! Sports, our GM has been recruiting with quite the personal touch:
"...Morey made the hard pitch, showing up at Gortat’s home in Orlando just after midnight at virtually the exact minute teams were officially allowed to begin negotiating with free agents.
Morey announced the meeting on his Facebook page and urged fans to leave notes for Gortat at an e-mail address—rocketsfanslovegortat@gmail.com. Morey said that within 10 minutes of his face-to-face meeting with Gortat, more than 100 e-mails had already arrived and the number climbed above 2,000 by noon Wednesday.
"He was reading them with some intensity," Morey said. "He was impressed by the number of messages and how much the fans seem to care about their team. I knew Rockets fans would come through."
Gortat’s agent, Guy Zucker, said Morey even showed up in Orlando with a Rockets jersey with Gortat’s name on it. He also said his client was interested in the Rockets.
"We had planned to meet teams later on in the process," Zucker said. "So this was a big surprise. The jersey with his name on it really caught him off-guard."
Morey said the Rockets made Gortat an offer, but would not divulge details."
So far, so good. We all know how classy our Boy Genius is. The only question is: What is it about Gortat that makes Morey so interested?
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