TheDreamShake 3v3 Tournament First Round -- Abel Prado's Bellaire Ballers vs. 3PtsTheHardenWay's ChuckWagons

We continue the first round of TheDreamShake 3v3 Tournament with the 5th seeded Bellaire Ballers against the 4th seeded ChuckWagons.

Abel's Ballers consist of the veteran point guard Aaron Brooks, 7'0 center Omer Asik, and the first year power forward Robert Covington. The size of Abel's team will punish any team in the paint, but the presence of only 1 player who can handle the ball is a weakness most teams can exploit. Expect to see lots of pick and rolls and lane penetration from this team of 3.

3PtsTheHardenWay's Chuckwagons are one of the funkier teams in the league, made up of all 3rd year players in shooting guard Reggie WIlliams, forward Chandler Parsons (he's so hawwtt), and power forward/center Greg Smith. This team doesn't have a true ball handler like most teams do, so it will be on Reggie and Chandler to carry the load in that regard. However, the versatility of this team is great, they can play perimeter ball if needed, pick and roll, and play big with Parsons and Smith. Expect to see lots of different types of play from this team.

Here's what each "General Manager" has to say about this matchup:

Abel:

It was no surprise that Dwight and Harden with first and second, but if either OJ or UT had taken Chandler Parsons I would not have been surprised. This match-up comes down to how much a nuisance Chandler Bang can be to a potent in and out combo led by Brooks and Asik. Parsons is without a doubt the most stable and versatile defender on this team; But he can’t guard everyone.

I’m more concerned about Parsons defensive capabilities as I don’t see the Chuckwagons getting the ball too often with Asik’s superior rebounding abilities. I hear Covington is a decent rebounder but his role on my team mostly comes down to "dont mess up." Greg Smith would have a long day bumping bodies with the Turkish Black Hole. (DON’T GOOGLE TURKISH BLACK HOLE!)

In order for the Chuckwagons to beat my Ballers Chandler would have to single-handedly stop a Brooks/Asik pick and roll. Let’s say that out of 50 possessions, I’d image that Chandler could disrupt a PnR about 20 times. (That’s a super scientific estimation pulled completely out of my ass.) That leaves about 30 possessions for Aaron dribble circles around Reggie before he drives to the hoop or feeds the ball to Asik.

Ballers: 31

Chuckwagons: 18

Jordan:

First, matchups –

Obviously I am guessing as to Abel’s defensive matchups (have not seen each other’s posts) but for me, Greg Smith is matched up against Omer Asik, but Chandler Parsons would be put on Aaron Brooks and Reggie would take Covington.

This has a few subsequent implications:

The Brooks/Asik pick-and-roll will be less effective than advertised. Parsons, according to Synergy, is in the top 50 pick-and-roll defenders when guarding the ball handler, allowing .7 points per possession. This number should be better against a player like Brooks, whose speed has diminished slightly and suffers from a size issue that Parsons exploits heavily. Asik will also not help with his questionable hands rolling towards the rim. Brooks is also a sub-par passer. He is worse than Lin, who has his own set of ‘missed connections’ craigslist posts pointing towards the Turk.

Greg Smith is a very sub-par iso-post defender, but Asik is an even worse post-up man. Smith’s biggest defensive weakness won’t be exploited as much and although I will readily concede that Asik will end up with more boards, I dont think the margin will be as big as you would think.

Second, overwhelming offense –

Reggie and Chandler provide for exceptional spacing, allowing not only for plenty of 3 point baskets from the corners as help defenders inch towards the paint on drives to the basket but also giving both more breathing room cutting to the rim off back screens. The high pick and roll with Chandler/Greg will result in solid looks and I think that the Reggie/Chandler pick and roll has a lot of appeal against a duo like Brooks/Covington.

Regardless of who guards who, I will retain a significant size advantage over at least one player at all times. This also has the added benefit of making up some ground on the rebounding front. Asik is sure to have the most boards, but I think my total team rebounds will best his based on total line-up size. I think I will handily win the offensive rebounding contest. Omer can’t be everywhere at once.

Also, 3 point shooting also matters way more in this format than normal timed contests. If the mark is ‘31’ as in the original post (was it supposed to be 21?) then each 3 pointer gets me ~10% of my total necessary offense (14.2% if it’s 21). Chandler and Reggie could be having a having an off shooting day and still be taking efficient shots because of how quick you can reach the target score.

Third, gut check -

Abel is starting the only player to never have played with quality NBA players – Covington is likely to be a massive liability on defense and, even on his best of rookie days, is only a marginal plus on offense. He hasn’t even shown that he can make it in the D-League, let alone the NBA. His summer league performance was great in a lot of ways, but that helter-skelter, stat inflating style of basketball doesn’t translate as well to a half-court 3-on-3 game with seasoned NBA players. Even against little known Reggie Williams, Covington would be getting lit up by people with more experience with the physicality of the NBA game.

Ultimately, If you’re putting money on a team, are you going to invest in the team with a raw college player and an Aaron Brooks that is a sports lifetime away from 2009; or the team with the most complete player on the Rockets roster (Parsons) and a guy with one of the highest field goal percentages in the entire NBA last season (Smith)?

I think the choice is pretty easy.

So there you have it, they've both made their cases, who do you think should win? Vote in the voting box below to send one of these teams to the second round! Thank you again for reading TheDreamShake during the offseason.