The winner of Game 5 will win this series.
That’s not a bold statement by any means, but it’s true nonetheless. Teams that win Game 5 in a 2-2 series go on to win the series a ginormous percent of the time. I’m too lazy to look it up, but “ginormous percent” seems correct.
The swing here is so important that the Rockets MUST treat this like a Game 7. You know the Spurs will. Win Game 5 and the Rockets can close out at home. Lose Game 5 and now you have to come back and win Game 6, then go back on the road and try to win a Game 7 in one of the toughest arenas in sports.
The Rockets have two wins in San Antonio this year, but the Spurs have three wins in Houston. Again, home court means everything, but only if you win.
Houston will trot out their “All offense, even for you” lineup tonight. Expect to see plenty of Ryan Anderson at the 5 and expect the Spurs to punish Houston inside. The Thunder weren’t always able to make the Rockets pay for being smaller, but the Spurs aren’t the Thunder.
Prediction: Spurs in 6
Tip-off is at 7pm CT on TNT.